Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

WIRE - GlobalX Copper Miners ETF

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WIRE hasn't really been running with copper this year. It should really be up over Oct 24 levels, all else being equal. Maybe due to the tariffs thingo that's affecting diversified miners that make up a lot of the holdings. Or, maybe WIRE is just lagging the price and will catch up. Dunno.


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WIRE looks like it could potentially be breaking up. A bit early perhaps, but breaking through the 200dma is positive. Surprised this has held up so well with the general market correction. Even though copper has had a great couple of months, a lot of the stocks held in this will just move with the general market as well.

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This was going great until Trump got in the way with his tariffs and subsequently the market, and copper, falling over. That looked to be such a great set up. But, since the last post it's crashed through the moving averages.

Maybe a general market correction that we had to have.

Back to the drawing board.

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This red line might be a little hard to beat, but who knows. Not sure if TA works on this when Trump could put a tariff on oxygen tomorrow.

That was a mighty collapse from 14 bucks to 10 in the space of a week or so. Nasty, copper was simply trashed. But, was that bottom bar on URNM and copper reaching 4 bucks capitulation? Maybe in retrospect.

Dr Copper is all over the shop at the moment and just needs to take a few chill pills and relax.

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Copper went through 5 bucks for a short time last night but retraced to $4.90 ish.

That pullback might have tempered excitement for the copper stocks, but WIRE still went up a couple of percent.

With copper around the $5 mark, you'd think the copper stocks would be doing better than this but maybe other market dynamics are holding back the shares a bit. All things being equal though, you'd expect WIRE to be closer to $15 than $13.47. Maybe still suffering from the Trump tariff uncertainty.

WIRE breaking through the moving averages look bullish.

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Replica posted under Copper sub-forum

Market Matters this morning
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/report/portfolio-positioning-fears-increase-that-the-us-will-join-the-middle-east-conflict/

WIRE not Held by me
No plan to Buy

LME 3-Month Copper ($US/MT)

"Copper (Cu) buyers are facing a major squeeze on the London Metal Exchange (LME), with the price of spot contracts spiking as traders compete to get hold of the dwindling volume of metal in the exchange’s warehousing network. Contracts expiring in one day just traded at the largest premium since a historic supply squeeze in 2021. The spike in spot contracts, known as a backwardation, is a sign that there isn’t enough metal in exchange warehouses to meet traders’ needs. It follows the dramatic 80% drop in readily available LME stockpiles this year. Cu’s advance has been orderly in recent weeks, but we believe a squeeze could be in the offing.

Fears that President Donald Trump will soon impose tariffs on Cu are driving the disconnect, with mid-July the touted timing for the tariffs, with 25% the favoured number by many.

We continue to believe it’s a matter of when, not if, Cu breaks above $US10,000/MT.

WIRE
MM bullish towards Cu medium/long term"
 
finicky said:
Replica posted under Copper sub-forum

Market Matters this morning
marketmatters.com.au

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au marketmatters.com.au
/report/portfolio-positioning-fears-increase-that-the-us-will-join-the-middle-east-conflict/

WIRE not Held by me
No plan to Buy

LME 3-Month Copper ($US/MT)

"Copper (Cu) buyers are facing a major squeeze on the London Metal Exchange (LME), with the price of spot contracts spiking as traders compete to get hold of the dwindling volume of metal in the exchange’s warehousing network. Contracts expiring in one day just traded at the largest premium since a historic supply squeeze in 2021. The spike in spot contracts, known as a backwardation, is a sign that there isn’t enough metal in exchange warehouses to meet traders’ needs. It follows the dramatic 80% drop in readily available LME stockpiles this year. Cu’s advance has been orderly in recent weeks, but we believe a squeeze could be in the offing.

Fears that President Donald Trump will soon impose tariffs on Cu are driving the disconnect, with mid-July the touted timing for the tariffs, with 25% the favoured number by many.

We continue to believe it’s a matter of when, not if, Cu breaks above $US10,000/MT.

WIRE
MM bullish towards Cu medium/long term"
Click to expand...

WIRE has finally recovered from that terrible sell-off in April due to the Trump thing. Cu just going through 5 bucks again which looks like an important level to me. If copper can stay above that then the copper players should go ok.

Will continue to hold for the longer term thematic thesis.


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ShareSuccess said:
I Would consider Below 12, we can only hope!
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There's every chance that the US is going to implode under its debt in the next couple of years and China is planning to take Taiwan in 2026/27 so below 12 bucks is still a chance.

At the moment, one of those golden crosses is on the horizon for WIRE.

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ShareSuccess said:
Cheer up mate:) it most likely won't go back there ha ha:laugh:
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If POC can stay above 5 bucks, maybe test it as support, and bounce, then it could be off to the races. But, it's had a poor history of dealing with the number 5, that seems to equate with about 14 on the WIRE.

Golden cross getting closer.

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I've stolen this screenshot of @ducati916 's DDD from this morning which adds to the bullishness of a copper miners catch up to copper futures. This could mean that the spot POC could be also going to break through and take the miners with it. But, not counting copper chickens, and I'm not really concerned shorter term because this is a long term narrative play.


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I don't see why not, although I'd be a bit nervous about the Mongolia asset. I don't follow RIO having made the decision to stay with BHP long ago but RIO might be as good or better.

AI
Rio Tinto's Copper Operations:

Global Presence: Rio Tinto has copper operations around the world, including the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, Kennecott in the US, and Escondida in Chile.

Oyu Tolgoi: This is a key focus for Rio Tinto, with an ongoing expansion of the underground mine that will significantly increase copper production.
Kennecott: Located in Utah, USA, this is a fully integrated copper mining operation with a long history.
Escondida: A joint venture in Chile, where Rio Tinto has a stake.
Winu: A project in Western Australia with the potential for large-scale copper production.
Resolution Copper: A joint venture with BHP in Arizona, USA, that is under review.
Copper Production and Strategy:

Increased Production:
Rio Tinto is forecasting a significant increase in copper production, with a target of over 30% growth between 2024 and 2028, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi expansion and other brownfield projects.
 
ShareSuccess said:
RIO is being Spruiked By wealth Within on Youtube as a Copper play.....Any Thoughts?
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It is but there's other stocks that have much higher % in copper. Copper is about 15% of RIOs cash flow. Will be more once the mongolia thing ramps up further. RIO doesn't even make it onto the WIRE holdings list. Although, it's interesting that BHP is on it but I don't think they have much more % cash flow copper.
 
@finicky @Sean K . I've held RIO since they were $35 and have a little knowledge of the Mongolia scene. RIO are in a world of trouble, recent court case loss over royalties, too close to former government, former high honcho ousted by new strongman who holds RIO in poor regard.

gg
 
finicky said:
marketmatters.com.au

Macro Monday: Equities punch to new highs on a lack of negative news - Market Matters

Macro Monday: Equities punch to new highs on a lack of negative news Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations
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Market Matters trading guy this morning
Trade Idea: Buy Global X Copper ETF (WIRE) at $13.25 with stops at $12.45 – 6% risk.

Not Held
Not Buying
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Copper might be breaking up from that very nice pennant. Individual pure copper plays will move faster than WIRE which has a lot invested into companies that are multimetallic. But, the whole commodity complex might be about to break up anyway.
 
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