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WHC - Whitehaven Coal

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Chart looks excellent imo
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Well soon after my last optimistic posted chart there was a gap down in mid April followed by sustained selling. Excuse was the March Quarterly out on April 15 describing various transient setbacks resulting in a minor downgrade of fy21 guidance. Actual production barely affected but sales affected by freight flow and costs up slightly. Sales guidance down only ~ 4% and the March Qtr achieved superior prices for product and looks like more to come. So the equally sustained recovery makes me suspicious that the price was worked down. Now fwiw my picture is a sloping head and shoulders with break of neckline, so bullish in the medium term but expecting a pullback.

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Following Smurf1976 post on the Coal Stocks thread I had a look at the monthly charts of the few coal stocks I have on a list and most of them put In a bearish October candle. Not the least WHC, which made a bearish 'dark cloud cover' candle in Oct against Sept. Moreover the negative volume of Oct was highest monthly volume on record. The negativity seems to be kicking on so far in Nov..
Others:
Coronado Global (CRN): not too bad but Oct an inverted hammer which is not auspicious in an uptrend.
New Hope (NHC): Oct high volume bearish engulfing candle, seems to be kicking on
Yancoal (YAL): Oct very high volume inverted hammer.

WHC Monthly
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Coal futures and spot approaching all time highs again after China's price fixing intervention that caused a temporary dip, yet WHC share price still languishing below $3 and struggling to rally. The negative sentiment toward coal in general and some flooding in QLD are seemingly the cause of this price underperformance relative to spot and futures?

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still languishing below $3 and struggling to rally
You are one hard task master. Less than a year and a half ago this was below $1.
So guessing it has had to battle stale holders and ST profit takers all the way up. Only 4 months ago it was at overbought level, did a sharp pullback and is now kicking on again. Not much wrong that I can see but admittedly I haven't followed any fundamentals recently.

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You are one hard task master. Less than a year and a half ago this was below $1.
Perhaps, but then looking at historical data, in July 2018 WHC was trading at high of $6 with coal priced at $120 USD/T. Then the slide in the coal price began and bottomed at $50/T in Sept 2020. Today coal is trading at $240/T and WHC is below $3. So the coal price has doubled from it's 2018 high and WHC's price has halved. Others factors at play of course but normally price takers rally in line with their commodity prices, not the case with WHC. Coal is far from dead as an energy source for many years to come but you could be forgiven for thinking that coal producers are not investible.

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you could be forgiven for thinking that coal producers are not investible.
I think thermal coal is investible and if you look back one or two pages we were discussing WHC from July- Oct when it was bottoming. Isn't WHC producing a mix of thermal and met? My point is mostly about sentiment - WHC has climbed out of a trough of terrible sentiment and a lot must feel burnt and have lost interest for good, the SP chart looks ok to me.

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Perhaps, but then looking at historical data, in July 2018 WHC was trading at high of $6 with coal priced at $120 USD/T. Then the slide in the coal price began and bottomed at $50/T in Sept 2020. Today coal is trading at $240/T and WHC is below $3. So the coal price has doubled from it's 2018 high and WHC's price has halved. Others factors at play of course but normally price takers rally in line with their commodity prices, not the case with WHC. Coal is far from dead as an energy source for many years to come but you could be forgiven for thinking that coal producers are not investible.

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has been a bumpy ride for me here , first buying in November 2013 ( @ $1.555 ) reduced in August 2017 ( @ $3.55 ) , added extra in August 2020 ( @ $1.29 ) reduced in October 2021 ( @ $3.55 )

now the price might be going nowhere in the last 7 years and the divs are a bit hit or miss

DIVIDEND TYPEDIVIDEND AMOUNT ($)FRANKEDEX-DIV DATEPAY DATE
Interim0.0150.00%27/02/202006/03/2020
Final0.30021.00%05/09/201919/09/2019
Interim0.2000.00%25/02/201906/03/2019
Final0.2700.00%04/09/201813/09/2018
Interim0.1300.00%23/02/201802/03/2018
Final0.0600.00%10/11/201728/11/2017
Final0.030100.00%11/09/201228/09/2012
Interim0.500100.00%19/04/201204/05/2012

but currently the ( investment ) cash risk is zero and am up ( theoretically ) more than 100% ( on the running profits )

one of those shares that benefited from a little extra effort

DYOR
 
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UBS has decided to take an initial substantial holder stake in WHC, along with some short covering perhaps, WHC has popped 6% today. Some institutional support for a significantly undervalued company based on current coal prices. Interesting development.
Form 603
 
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UBS has decided to take an initial substantial holder stake in WHC, along with some short covering perhaps, WHC has popped 6% today. Some institutional support for a significantly undervalued company based on current coal prices. Interesting development.
Form 603
Lets hope so. I do own a small stake with fingers cross. Anyway its good to see the share price rise today.
 
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Sold my parcel with profits before Ex div dates. Profit is better than wld be div receive. Still keeping it on my watchlist.
Due to the war n China news..she is looking to buy more iron ore fr overseas...keeping my eyes on BHP price.
 
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Whitehaven Coal today welcomed the decision of the Independent Planning Commission NSW (IPC) to approve the
Narrabri Stage 3 Extension Project (Project).
The Project extends the life of the Narrabri Underground Mine, which has been operating successfully since 2012, from
2031 to 2044.

NSW Independent Planning Commission approves Narrabri Stage 3 Extension Project​


Among other things, the Project is forecast to deliver:
 a $599 million additional net economic benefit to NSW
 the continuation of 500 skilled jobs for a further decade; and
 $317 million of direct wages into the local community to 2044 (NPV basis).
Whitehaven Coal Managing Director and CEO Paul Flynn said today’s approval was a great outcome for the company and
the hundreds of employees working at the mine.
“Big investments like Narrabri Stage 3 are about lives and livelihoods and it’s no surprise the majority of submissions from
the local area and wider region supported the proposal, as the IPC itself acknowledged.
“While today is a great result for Whitehaven, it’s fantastic for the Narrabri region too – last financial year Whitehaven
spent nearly $50 million with around 81 suppliers based in the Narrabri LGA”, Mr Flynn said.
Whitehaven notes today’s approval is subject to the company meeting a range of conditions imposed by the IPC. The
company further notes that IPC conditioning in relation to CO2 emissions aligns with its intention to reduce CO2 emissions
at the mine over time together with the implementation of emissions mitigation technology and measures.


======================================================================================================

DYOR

i hold WHC ( ' free-carried' ) ( has been a nice 'channel-trade ' for the patient )
 
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Fantastic Quarter - production well up on Dec Qtr and improved on pcp. Record average price achieved A$315/t (pcp $101/t). Fy22 guidance maintained.

"After buying back $67 million of shares and paying
$80 million in dividends in March, WHC is $161 million
net cash at 19 April 2022"

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Narrabri Stage 3 Legal Proceedings
Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) has been notified that a client of the Environmental Defenders Office (EDO), a probono law firm, has commenced judicial review proceedings in the NSW Land and Environment Court in respect of the
State Significant Development Consent (Consent) which was granted for the Narrabri Stage 3 Extension Project by the
NSW Independent Planning Commission (IPC) on 1 April 2022.
The proceedings are seeking to invalidate the Consent on climate change related grounds. The EDO's client in the
proceedings is the Bushfire Survivors for Climate Action Incorporated.
Whitehaven notes the following:
 The IPC, in approving the Stage 3 Extension Project, conducted a comprehensive assessment and evaluation
process which included consideration of 1,775 submissions from relevant stakeholders. Roughly one-third of
these submissions addressed the issue of climate change.
 The IPC panel comprised three experienced commissioners, being Professor O'Kane, Professor Fell and
Professor Barlow. The panel was assisted at the public hearing and in its assessment process by an
experienced senior counsel.
 In its Statement of Reasons for Decision, the IPC said it had considered all emissions associated with the
Project (including Scope 3 emissions) in its assessment and determination.
 The IPC's reasons for finding that the Stage 3 Extension Project should be approved subject to stringent
conditions of consent included that "GHG emissions for the Project have been adequately estimated and are
permissible in context of the current climate change policy framework".
High quality thermal coal has an important role to play in providing energy security during the decarbonisation transition.
Whitehaven intends to vigorously defend the proceedings.

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DYOR

i hold WHC ( ' free-carried' ) ( has been a nice 'channel-trade ' for the patient )

another buying opportunity ?? probably not but will watch just in case
 

bk1

Follow the money
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WHC with a market cap of $5B expects FY22 EBITDA of $3B.
June quarter equity sales of produced coal was up 23%.
Tight supply forecast for FY 22 and FY23.
 
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Even tighter if the Chinese are in fact looking for more coal if Bloomberg is correct.
In my humble opinion. Regardless what pple bagged about coal n pollution, I have always maintain there is a place for Coal in our life.
In some countries eg China, India etc, there are pple living in remote country villages that need Coal for heating, cooking in their daily living. I am not a holder currently but had been.
 
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