WHC - Whitehaven Coal

[finicky]

WHC @ $6.46
Went ex div yesterday

On market trade.
Daily buyback still operating.

Held
Possible Add

 

[Antirnator]

Have low bid at $6.05.

 

[finicky]

Market Matters Morning Report

Coal

"The price of coal has declined since its heady levels in 2022 dragging with it most related stocks. The largest coal stock on the ASX is Whitehaven (WHC) which we hold in our Active Growth Portfolio its up +2.2% year-to-date having bounced strongly from its April low. Conversely, Peabody Energy (BTU US) which we hold in our International Equities Portfolio, has also enjoyed a solid recovery from its April low but it’s still down over 8% so far in 2025:

Whitehaven Coal (WHC): it might take a while for WHC to push meaningfully back above $7 but we continue to target the $9 area. This predominantly Met Coal miner has been delivering operationally, and plans to spend up to $48 million to repurchase its shares via an on-market buy-back into the end of 2025. This latest initiative aligns with the company’s updated capital allocation strategy, which aims to return 40–60% of underlying NPAT to shareholders through a mix of dividends and buy-backs. WHC has positioned itself perfectly for when the coal price recovers, having evolved the business to primarily focus on Met (coking) coal used in steel making following the acquisition of Daunia and Blackwater, when prices and sentiment were in the doldrums.

Peabody Energy (BTU US): This Saint Louis based miner is also set to benefit from its pivot to Met coal, in a similar move as Whitehaven (WHC). However, it will take time for investors to be comfortable rerating BTU significantly higher after repeated incidents at longwall mines in QLD over the last five years. Similarly to WHC, we ultimately target the $US30 area for BTU.

We believe both WHC and BTU are trading well and will trade significantly higher if/when we see a gain in coal prices. So far in 2025, Metallurgical coal prices have been under pressure, trading much lower than the highs of 2022. Oversupply and weaker steel demand, especially in China, continue to dampen prices. Still, as we saw in July when China officially began construction of the Yarlung Zangbo (Tibet) mega-dam, it doesn’t take much to turn the dial on perceived future demand for steel, with Met coal set to advance strongly if China presses more major infrastructure spending.

MM is bullish on coal stocks into 2026"

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