Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[over9k]

well, while not publicised that way, Trump economic plan does rewuire inflation, high one..so the reason he wants lower rates.
in a twisted way, it is a win for him if the Fed slashes rates.
usd down, inflation up so reducing the debt and a boost to economy
The real issue remaining the debt and ability to fund it, to rollover bonds, let alone fund further deficits

This. If the public would just accept higher inflation the problem could be solved very easily but they won't soooo...

 

[over9k]

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There seems to be a Huge misunderstanding over Mr. Trump's humiliation and shackling of South Korean workers by the arms, legs and waists in Georgia recently. Seemingly 475 of the criminals were nabbed by the good ole boy ICE operatives. These ICE operatives operate behind masks and bear a distinct resemblance to Taylor Swift's fiancé Kelsee Travers or Travis Kelce or whatever he calls himself nowadays. Unfortunately they don't have that essential element in American aspirations present called luck in being able to coax her in to marriage. Having arrested the S.Korean foreigners, what to do next.?

Fortunately the S.Korean President sent a plane to repatriate them and Mr. Trump said that the Kelsee ICE babies were correct in arresting them and furthermore would have the 475 back to teach the lower IQ Americans how to assemble batteries.

Good luck with that. With tariffs and goons like ICE it would appear to me that tariffs and expulsion of people with skills is now coming to the pointy end of what many predicted.

A complete and utter $hit Show for a the United States of America.

I do hope the Chinese are nice to us when they come marching down the Bruce Highway. I'm not all that impressed with the Americans and told Mr. Albo to let MR. Trump know that last week during his 2 minute call.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

There seems to be a Huge misunderstanding over Mr. Trump's humiliation and shackling of South Korean workers by the arms, legs and waists in Georgia recently. Seemingly 475 of the criminals were nabbed by the good ole boy ICE operatives. These ICE operatives operate behind masks and bear a distinct resemblance to Taylor Swift's fiancé Kelsee Travers or Travis Kelce or whatever he calls himself nowadays. Unfortunately they don't have that essential element in American aspirations present called luck in being able to coax her in to marriage. Having arrested the S.Korean foreigners, what to do next.?

Fortunately the S.Korean President sent a plane to repatriate them and Mr. Trump said that the Kelsee ICE babies were correct in arresting them and furthermore would have the 475 back to teach the lower IQ Americans how to assemble batteries.

Good luck with that. With tariffs and goons like ICE it would appear to me that tariffs and expulsion of people with skills is now coming to the pointy end of what many predicted.

A complete and utter $hit Show for a the United States of America.

I do hope the Chinese are nice to us when they come marching down the Bruce Highway. I'm not all that impressed with the Americans and told Mr. Albo to let MR. Trump know that last week during his 2 minute call.

gg

i believe you are better off conveyong message to Xi via Albo:
1) Albo might be able to talk to Xi
2)Xi might care
3) this could be one thing Albo can do benefiting Australia , i expect any of his talkig to Trump will put more nail in our coffin vs US-Australia relations

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

i believe you are better off conveyong message to Xi via Albo:
1) Albo might be able to talk to Xi
2)Xi might care
3) this could be one thing Albo can do benefiting Australia , i expect any of his talkig to Trump will put more nail in our coffin vs US-Australia relations

Indeed. I do wish Albo would get away from his concerns over the followers of Allah and the followers of Jehovah arguing with each other and get back to looking after Australians as a group.

Australia has so much to sell to the world and all our newspapers are full of the Bondi/Lakemba inmates. They've been at each others throats for over a millenium and will be forever I would say.

Give Australia a go, Albo. We count as well as people from overseas who argue constantly with each other.

gg

 

[over9k]

 

[waterbottle]

So much for American strength....

 

[houtman]

View attachment 208100

View attachment 208101

That's an impressive write down by the BLS, a record 911,000.

And given it is for the period End of March 2024 to 2025, hard to argue that it wasn't at least partly politicised.

Never a dull moment.

 

[mullokintyre]

The Us inflation rate started to increase in 2021.

It just so happens it is about the same time that the US fed reserve started to greatly increase its intervention in the funds market via the repo funds injection

The US fed started cutting its involvement in the repo market in May 2023.
The correlation between falling inflation and the cutting the repo market down is not great from a time perspective, but there is a lagging correlation.


Just recently, the Fed has started to increase its activity.
It is still a long way short of the 2.5 trillion injection at its peak, but it is coming off a very low base.

It may be nothing, but worth keeping an eye on.
Are the US banks having a spot of bother?
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

The Us inflation rate started to increase in 2021.
View attachment 208166
It just so happens it is about the same time that the US fed reserve started to greatly increase its intervention in the funds market via the repo funds injection

The US fed started cutting its involvement in the repo market in May 2023.
The correlation between falling inflation and the cutting the repo market down is not great from a time perspective, but there is a lagging correlation.
View attachment 208165

Just recently, the Fed has started to increase its activity.
It is still a long way short of the 2.5 trillion injection at its peak, but it is coming off a very low base.
View attachment 208168
It may be nothing, but worth keeping an eye on.
Are the US banks having a spot of bother?
Mick

Hi Mick
Appreciate the comment.

Can you explain it a bit more? Do the spikes mean the Fed buying repurchase agreements to help liquidity in a bank? Does this mean the bank might be in trouble?

 

[mullokintyre]

Hi Mick
Appreciate the comment.

Can you explain it a bit more? Do the spikes mean the Fed buying repurchase agreements to help liquidity in a bank? Does this mean the bank might be in trouble?

I have no idea why the FED injects liquidity.
If you have a look at This Article you might get a better idea.
I certainly did not,.
its an opaque system designed to make money for the members of the federal reserve system.
They generally don't make announcements, you have to watch the money flow to see what they are up to.
it could be a bank or banks in trouble, it might be just them playing political wanking.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

I have no idea why the FED injects liquidity.
If you have a look at This Article you might get a better idea.
I certainly did not,.
its an opaque system designed to make money for the members of the federal reserve system.
They generally don't make announcements, you have to watch the money flow to see what they are up to.
it could be a bank or banks in trouble, it might be just them playing political wanking.
Mick

Edited to add.
The Fed won't be in trouble, but a member bank might.
Mick

 

[over9k]

Hi Mick
Appreciate the comment.

Can you explain it a bit more? Do the spikes mean the Fed buying repurchase agreements to help liquidity in a bank? Does this mean the bank might be in trouble?

Risk. The fed basically says it'll buy the bad bond, i.e cover the losses for the loan if it gets defaulted on.

This was actually the mistake they made in the GFC - they gave the banks direct capital injections and the banks then just sat on the money and didn't loan it out out of fear it would all just get defaulted on. This then created a feedback loop where there was a collapse of new credit/liquidity, which tanked the economy, which meant that all the bonds (loans) were then defaulted on like the banks feared, which made them even more hesitant to loan any more of it out, which tanked the economy more, which made them even more risk averse, and so on, and so on...

And everything thus went to hell in a handbasket.

See how perception effectively creates reality here? How the entire system depends on simple confidence?

This time around they didn't directly give the banks that much cash, what they did was let the banks know they could keep lending money out and if it was defaulted on the fed would effectively print cash to cover the losses. In a way they actually deliberately created a moral hazard situation where the banks were insulated from the risk of writing loans which actually made them willing to write them which then kept the supply of credit flowing and thus the economy didn't crash into a full on depression.

It's actually what they did in the GFC after the cash injections but by then it was too late. They're even on record as stating that if they'd done this bigger/earlier on in the GFC then a large percentage of it would have actually been avoided.

 

[over9k]

For anyone wondering, what I described above is exactly what goes on when you hear about a central bank undergoing a "bond buying program".

So if you heard of, say, a $500 billion bond buying program what this means is that the central bank will buy $500 billion worth of bad/defaulted on loans from the banks, meaning that the banks can loan the money out and the central bank (here in aus it would be the RBA) effectively acts as guarantor for the loans by printing the money (in this hypothetical they've put a limit of $500 billion that they will print) to cover any defaults.

So to state the bleeding obvious, if the guarantor for a loan you're making can literally print money to cover a default then you effectively have an undefaultable loan you've just written, so you'll lend money to almost anyone that wants it, which is exactly what happened

 

[mullokintyre]

Hi Mick
Appreciate the comment.

Can you explain it a bit more? Do the spikes mean the Fed buying repurchase agreements to help liquidity in a bank? Does this mean the bank might be in trouble?

I read an article this morning that may give a hint to what is happening.
It seems that the Commercial real estate market may be about to implode.
The problems facing them are.
1. There are CRE loans that need to be rolled over over soonish.
2. These CRE loans are now going to be charged at higher interest rates.
3. The Value of a lot of CRE has diminsished since the loan were first taken out.
4. Occupancy rates are down courtesy of WFH and some large businesses shifting from state to state, from city to city.
5. Becuse of 4 above, income to service CRE loans has diminished.
From SBR


The fed had already signalled potential problems in CRE back in August last year.
From The Fed Files

Mick

 

[Antirnator]

The Fed has been failing for decades to do its job, from Clinton-Trump. It can't be rejigged until May next year. The board has been full of people who have failed upwards in the Washington bureaucracy. The printing money solution to push the debt into the future needs to be resolved but it's going to take enormous political will and time to reform this institution. So expect the hate to rise, as the people backing the incompetent raise the political temperature in 2026. The issue is not who is right or wrong but reducing the incompetence and corruption.

There is no better example of incompetence than Lisa Cook, unqualified and corrupt. No average person working in a bank who incorrectly filled in documents to get a cheaper mortgage rate would keep their job. No conviction is required for this firing. The documents are in the public domain for 3 separate properties and on tax forms. I don't care that her incompetent sorority sister declared the firing unlawful, both were appointed by President Biden's staff.

With great transparency comes great scrutiny.

 

[mullokintyre]

The Fed has been failing for decades to do its job, from Clinton-Trump. It can't be rejigged until May next year. The board has been full of people who have failed upwards in the Washington bureaucracy. The printing money solution to push the debt into the future needs to be resolved but it's going to take enormous political will and time to reform this institution. So expect the hate to rise, as the people backing the incompetent raise the political temperature in 2026. The issue is not who is right or wrong but reducing the incompetence and corruption.

There is no better example of incompetence than Lisa Cook, unqualified and corrupt. No average person working in a bank who incorrectly filled in documents to get a cheaper mortgage rate would keep their job. No conviction is required for this firing. The documents are in the public domain for 3 separate properties and on tax forms. I don't care that her incompetent sorority sister declared the firing unlawful, both were appointed by President Biden's staff.

With great transparency comes great scrutiny.

the concept of conflict of interest seems to be diminishing in all walks of life.
Not just in the US, but right here in OZ.
I have been communicating with our local council about two blatantly obvious conflicts with council staff, but it has fallen on deaf ears.
Mick

 

[over9k]

My noggin is joggin