Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Dona Ferentes]

I don't understand why everyone is so down on narcissists. I'm a narcissist and everybody loves me.

gg

I'm a mere shadow of a narcissist, and everyone can see through me.

 

[moXJO]

Taking it back to Trump's tariffs - Australia manufacturing is on its knees we are creating nothing but government/taxpayer funded jobs (80% of jobs last year) and energy prices are too high.

At least Trump administration has some semblance of a long term plan because Australia at the moment is dropping faster than a stone. Exactly what do the people think is going to happen here with zero intervention?
We are losing all industry and the skills that go with it.

Either the government needs to get serious about grid upgrades for cheaper energy. That means now to catch the upside of automation.
Look at how they can offer super cheap energy to industrial parks in future build outs.
A multitude of other stuff obviously.

Get away from creating more government jobs needs to be a priority unless its in education.

This is the point of long term planning and security for a country. Either you make changes and go through the higher costs and difficulties or you end up a broke backwater. If we weren't digging holes Australia would be stuffed now.
Putting our head in the sand isn't going to cut it.

 

[qldfrog]

Taking it back to Trump's tariffs - Australia manufacturing is on its knees we are creating nothing but government/taxpayer funded jobs (80% of jobs last year) and energy prices are too high.

At least Trump administration has some semblance of a long term plan because Australia at the moment is dropping faster than a stone. Exactly what do the people think is going to happen here with zero intervention?
We are losing all industry and the skills that go with it.

Either the government needs to get serious about grid upgrades for cheaper energy. That means now to catch the upside of automation.
Look at how they can offer super cheap energy to industrial parks in future build outs.
A multitude of other stuff obviously.

Get away from creating more government jobs needs to be a priority unless its in education.

This is the point of long term planning and security for a country. Either you make changes and go through the higher costs and difficulties or you end up a broke backwater. If we weren't digging holes Australia would be stuffed now.
Putting our head in the sand isn't going to cut it.

ALP was re-elected in a landslide after an absolute disastrous economic management since covid, the opposition did not even offer an alternative to the welfare state and the bubble and lollipop views
Do not blame the politicians, they are a reflection of what australians are in their majority..still blaming neg gearing on house price when tenants, and rushing to buy more RE if landlords
A Trump revolution will never happen here or in the soft EU.

 

[DannyB0000]

ALP was re-elected in a landslide after an absolute disastrous economic management since covid, the opposition did not even offer an alternative to the welfare state and the bubble and lollipop views
Do not blame the politicians, they are a reflection of what australians are in their majority..still blaming neg gearing on house price when tenants, and rushing to buy more RE if landlords
A Trump revolution will never happen here or in the soft EU.

I didn't like Dutton and I couldn't stand listening to Trump talk, there is no way I would have voted for Trump and what he stood for. The immigrants are eating your dogs and cats, Please !!!, my parents arrived here as immigrants 66 Years ago and they weren't eating dogs and cats and they were hard working people. I liked Malcolm Turnbull as LNP leader, the new LNP leader Sussan Ley looks interesting, I would consider voting for her.

 

[moXJO]

ALP was re-elected in a landslide after an absolute disastrous economic management since covid, the opposition did not even offer an alternative to the welfare state and the bubble and lollipop views
Do not blame the politicians, they are a reflection of what australians are in their majority..still blaming neg gearing on house price when tenants, and rushing to buy more RE if landlords
A Trump revolution will never happen here or in the soft EU.

Australians are too spoilt to see it. Immigration may change that. A lot of FOBs I am meeting are saying the same thing.

This wave of immigration has brought people that work hard and are making bank. I know guys that start multiple businesses from scratch. One was a dishwasher, learnt how to cook while he was there and now has 6 restaurants in the space of about 4-5 years.

They are willing to work 16 hour shifts start businesses with no knowledge of how to run one and often with broken English and still are making huge sums per week.

Australians don't have any excuses. Its comfort and laziness holding people back.

 

[farmerge]

I didn't like Dutton and I couldn't stand listening to Trump talk, there is no way I would have voted for Trump and what he stood for. The immigrants are eating your dogs and cats, Please !!!, my parents arrived here as immigrants 66 Years ago and they weren't eating dogs and cats and they were hard working people. I liked Malcolm Turnbull as LNP leader, the new LNP leader Sussan Ley looks interesting, I would consider voting for her.

@DannyB0000 As I see it sitting on the fence, the politicians we gave today no eighter side are wearing the same skirt or trousers.
Very little to differentiate between the lot.
Too many of them are more concerned with the "Hip Pocket Nerve", going aye and nay as the occasion arises, and then after many years, in most cases, walking away with an extremely healthy pension and then in retirement, a job for the boys and girls.

 

[farmerge]

Australians are too spoilt to see it. Immigration may change that. A lot of FOBs I am meeting are saying the same thing.

This wave of immigration has brought people that work hard and are making bank. I know guys that start multiple businesses from scratch. One was a dishwasher, learnt how to cook while he was there and now has 6 restaurants in the space of about 4-5 years.

They are willing to work 16 hour shifts start businesses with no knowledge of how to run one and often with broken English and still are making huge sums per week.

Australians don't have any excuses. Its comfort and laziness holding people back.

@moXJO Ah the good life, sun sand, beach and the dole.

 

[DannyB0000]

@moXJO Ah the good life, sun sand, beach and the dole.

There was no dole or any other welfare support for new migrants when my parents arrived in 1959. You either had to get a job as soon as you arrived or know someone willing to support you. Maybe it’s a different story now I dont know.

New migrants had to be to white because of white Australia policy at the time.

 

[farmerge]

There was no dole or any other welfare support for new migrants when my parents arrived in 1959. You either had to get a job as soon as you arrived or know someone willing to support you. Maybe it’s a different story now I dont know.

New migrants had to be to white because of white Australia policy at the time.

@DannyB0000 I was more referring more about recent times. I know plenty of immigrants who came here wanting a better life and weren't afraid to take on whatever job was on offer.

 

[rederob]

Are you just using chatgpt for arguments now?
Its literally tacked on the end.

That's not what the study shows at all. It shows that they naturally use countermeasures more frequently and outperform non narcissists on polygraph tests.
That's not just a 'good liar'.

If you knew anything about narcissism i wouldn't be arguing against non topic points from chatgpt.


The only thing you don't budget on is doubling down on Trump which seems to be copy and pasted from chatgpt.

Have an original thought at the minimum.

This is off-topic, but It is clear you did not understand the study (where most participants were female Israeli students rather than real life candidates).
Nowhere did it conclude that narcissists are better at beating a polygraph than other people. Both good liars and narcissists are more likely to use countermeasures to beat the test, but at the end of the day there is no evidence that narcissists are more likely to beat a polygraph test than any other group. That's because polygraphs do not detect lies per se, as they instead record and measure physiological responses such as heart rate, blood pressure, respiration, and skin conductivity.
When you do come across a study that proves your point, please let us know.
Researchers more often than not conclude good liars would do better than narcissists in beating the polygraph for reasons explained here.

I have never used ChatGPT, but I assume it helps people find relevant information. If that's the case then I accept your many compliments.

Had you from the outset separated those we commonly describe as narcissists (seldom high in the many traits of its spectrum) from those with an obvious mental health condition known as narcissistic personality disorder (a condition you never acknowledged), then we could have used that as a basis for explaining Trump's flawed actions - consistent with this thread's theme - including both why and how they will have dire consequences for America as the years roll on.

Adding to what I wrote earlier, here are some more problems that arise for America through Trump's NPD:

• As a result of believing he deserves privileges and special treatment, Trump consistenly places himself above America's laws and its Constitution. This was best demonstrated when Trump assumed control over California's National Guard on grounds that were Constitutionally insufficient, and included ignoring essential consultation with California's Governor. Given California's GDP is 4th highest in the world (after only USA, China, and Germany), Trump's contempt for that state will negatively affect America's overall GDP
• Trump's preocupation with fantasies about his success, power and brilliance are now more regularly being called out by MSM, damaging both America's internal and international reputation. Internally this is reflected in the growing political divide that splits the nation, affecting social cohesion (amply demonstrated by how ICE raids are conducted). Internationally his claim of completely destroying Iran's nuclear capacity via covert bombing has been debunked across the globe, causing other western nation leaders to question his competence (it is rumoured that Trump personally revised (read changed) his military's agreed plan of attack on Iran which would have yielded a greater success). Trump also uses his Presidential status to badger allies to adopt his self-proclaimed excellent policies, or to commit more to military spending, further alienating America from the rest of the world
• Ironically Trump seeks to validate his high sense of self-importance by regular references to his acclaimed successful negotiations with internationally recognised "strong men" such as Putin and Xi. This seems to be a blind spot for him given neither are democracies and are therefore constantly treated with derision by America's MSM. Curiously this has also led to Russia being exempt from Trump's global tariffs policy, leading Europe in particular to question how seriously Trump supports Ukraine's efforts to oust Russia from its territories.

 

[qldfrog]

If you are on Facebook, you could see here the main points of Trump's big tax bill for the average American

Not bad, definitely an incitement to work and make money, with capped benefits deductions and serious tax deduction for the working class.
Compare this to our Australian
"We will spend on xxxx, increase welfare, benefits, etc etc etc"
Different spirit
Good luck

 

[basilio]

Trump raised steel tariffs from Canada to 50% . Wow ! Isn't that awful. Won't it crash Canadas steel industry ?
Well no actually. Canada has decided that it will redirect Canadian steel to Canadian projects. It will also reduce all imports of steel.

On the US side manufactures are in serious trouble finding steel supply.

The BBC link gives a bare bones limited description of this policy change
The video goes into far more depth. One critical feature is that Canada is going full bore for green steel.

Canada curbs steel imports to shield domestic industry from Trump tariffs

The prime minister pledges to diversify its trading partners away from the US and prioritise the use of Canadian steel.

www.bbc.com

 

[basilio]

On a similar note to the Canadian Steel decision it seems that US agricultural products are not being bought by global markets.

No big noises . Just people deciding they won't buy US products if they can find another option.

 

[farmerge]

On a similar note to the Canadian Steel decision it seems that US agricultural products are not being bought by global markets.

No big noises . Just people deciding they won't buy US products if they can find another option.

Eventually the bite on the hand will get greater as Americans start to realise that the world's trading partners are no longer willing to partner with them.

 

[moXJO]

This is off-topic, but It is clear you did not understand the study (where most participants were female Israeli students rather than real life candidates).
Nowhere did it conclude that narcissists are better at beating a polygraph than other people. Both good liars and narcissists are more likely to use countermeasures to beat the test, but at the end of the day there is no evidence that narcissists are more likely to beat a polygraph test than any other group. That's because polygraphs do not detect lies per se, as they instead record and measure physiological responses such as heart rate, blood pressure, respiration, and skin conductivity.
When you do come across a study that proves your point, please let us know.
Researchers more often than not conclude good liars would do better than narcissists in beating the polygraph for reasons explained here.

I have never used ChatGPT, but I assume it helps people find relevant information. If that's the case then I accept your many compliments.

Had you from the outset separated those we commonly describe as narcissists (seldom high in the many traits of its spectrum) from those with an obvious mental health condition known as narcissistic personality disorder (a condition you never acknowledged), then we could have used that as a basis for explaining Trump's flawed actions - consistent with this thread's theme - including both why and how they will have dire consequences for America as the years roll on.

Adding to what I wrote earlier, here are some more problems that arise for America through Trump's NPD:

• As a result of believing he deserves privileges and special treatment, Trump consistenly places himself above America's laws and its Constitution. This was best demonstrated when Trump assumed control over California's National Guard on grounds that were Constitutionally insufficient, and included ignoring essential consultation with California's Governor. Given California's GDP is 4th highest in the world (after only USA, China, and Germany), Trump's contempt for that state will negatively affect America's overall GDP
• Trump's preocupation with fantasies about his success, power and brilliance are now more regularly being called out by MSM, damaging both America's internal and international reputation. Internally this is reflected in the growing political divide that splits the nation, affecting social cohesion (amply demonstrated by how ICE raids are conducted). Internationally his claim of completely destroying Iran's nuclear capacity via covert bombing has been debunked across the globe, causing other western nation leaders to question his competence (it is rumoured that Trump personally revised (read changed) his military's agreed plan of attack on Iran which would have yielded a greater success). Trump also uses his Presidential status to badger allies to adopt his self-proclaimed excellent policies, or to commit more to military spending, further alienating America from the rest of the world
• Ironically Trump seeks to validate his high sense of self-importance by regular references to his acclaimed successful negotiations with internationally recognised "strong men" such as Putin and Xi. This seems to be a blind spot for him given neither are democracies and are therefore constantly treated with derision by America's MSM. Curiously this has also led to Russia being exempt from Trump's global tariffs policy, leading Europe in particular to question how seriously Trump supports Ukraine's efforts to oust Russia from its territories.

I said countermeasures in the last post. Narcissists don't have the same internal responses as others when it comes to lies. You know, like their lack of empathy. Different to a good liar.

Trump was actually branded a solipsist if we want to get technical.

Anyway I don't believe you on the copy paste on chatgpt.

 

[rederob]

hsthshy

I said countermeasures in the last post. Narcissists don't have the same internal responses as others when it comes to lies. You know, like their lack of empathy. Different to a good liar.

Trump was actually branded a solipsist if we want to get technical.

Anyway I don't believe you on the copy paste on chatgpt.

Below I have snipped from your earlier post to confirm your posts concerning narcissism are severely lacking. You wrote:
First, Trump suffers from NPD, a mental health condition you have never mentioned. He probably suffers from other things too, but I have provided current examples of how NPD has affected what he does, and shown why the consequences are not likely to MAGA. NPD is a very different matter from the more typical understanding we have about what a narcissist is, and very few on the spectrum are ever classified as reaching NPD. Trump's problem is not that he is just a "grandiose narcissist", but that he suffers the many additional elements of narcissism that turn it into a disorder as distinct from a characteristic.

Second, your claims about narcissism and lie detector tests have no basis beyond the fact that they are more prone to use countermeasures to defeat them. You never presented any evidence that they would be more successful than a good liar. The consesnus is that good liars would do better. Nor did you provide any evidence of how many narcissists are in the CIA versus how many would have NPD. Nor did you name names, provide their posistions, or explain which element/s of narcissism they had that caused problems.

Finally, I don't care what you believe. I have no idea where to go to find or use chatGPT, and are not interested in it anyway. I suggest you take your focus off ad hominems and instead concentrate on content.

As I said from the outset, narcissism has several healthy elements, and only becomes a problem when more of its elements on the spectrum are present, and they are its higher levels. When it manifest into NPD, as it has for Trump, a very wide range of typical decision making strategies are negatively affected. Nowhere is this better demonstrated than through Trump's vindictiveness. Apart from pardoning hundreds of criminals that stormed the Capitol during an insurrection, Trump has weaponised the DOJ to go after those responsible for their incarceration. And just a few days ago Trump dismissed (without explanation) the prosecutor responsible for convicting his good friends in Epstein and Maxwell of paedophilia.

Trump's Presidency is still in its early days, and the decisions he has made on so many fronts have barely scratched the surface. I see the biggest question as being how the extent of America's coming economic demise will afffect global markets. I can't see it being as severe as the GFC, but nations holding US bonds could get burnt.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Trump raised steel tariffs from Canada to 50% . Wow ! Isn't that awful. Won't it crash Canadas steel industry ?
Well no actually. Canada has decided that it will redirect Canadian steel to Canadian projects. It will also reduce all imports of steel.

On the US side manufactures are in serious trouble finding steel supply.

The BBC link gives a bare bones limited description of this policy change
The video goes into far more depth. One critical feature is that Canada is going full bore for green steel.

Canada curbs steel imports to shield domestic industry from Trump tariffs

The prime minister pledges to diversify its trading partners away from the US and prioritise the use of Canadian steel.

www.bbc.com

I said in previous posts that countries will bypass the US with exports. China has rediverted many exports.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I thought I'd start a stock and economic thread on Trump' next Presidency and his effect on economies and stocks. He has already moved markets, indices and commodities and he has not yet even been inaugurated. I subscribe at a cheap rate to the New York Times, ( to do Wordle and share results with some fellow Wordlers ).

It is an absolute left wing rag full of the usual woke propaganda. I'll probably not renew.

Below is an email I received this evening from the NYT which seems reasonable in it's assessments.

View attachment 188785

President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policy is already roiling global markets. Brendan McDermid/Reuters​

The other Trump trade​

Investors and policymakers are getting a dose of Trumponomics déjà vu this morning.

Global stocks are falling, and the dollar is climbing. The volatility comes after President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to impose tariffs on the United States’ biggest trading partners — Canada, China and Mexico — on Day 1 in office in an apparent effort to clamp down on the flow of cross-border drugs, like fentanyl, and migrants.

The latest:

Trump wants to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico “on ALL products coming into the United States,” he said on Truth Social. He also wants an “additional” 10 percent tariff on imports from China, which Trump blames for the fentanyl crisis, a charge that Beijing has repeatedly disputed. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso fell sharply against the dollar. Europe, Japan and South Korea weren’t even mentioned in Trump’s announcement, but stocks have fallen there, too. That suggests rising fears that a new trade war could scramble global supply chains and dent profits. Automakers are some of the hardest hit stocks, with Volkswagen, Stellantis and Nissan, which run manufacturing operations in Mexico, all down.

Today’s losses have reversed some of yesterday’s “Bessent bounce” rally. Investors were relieved after Trump picked Scott Bessent, the market-friendly hedge fund mogul, to run the Treasury Department.

But the reverberations show that it’s Trump calling the shots. The president-elect has made no secret of his desire to use tariffs to further his America-first agenda, and he has yet to announce his pick to be U.S. Trade Representative. (Another tariff supporter, Robert Lighthizer, is in the running.)

Trump’s latest threats may be just a negotiating tactic. That’s the belief of some Trump backers, including Bill Ackman, the billionaire financier. But they are a reminder of how Trump set off alarm bells across diplomatic channels and international markets during his first term often via social media posts. “Waking up to check the tweets for any policy announcements could become the norm,” Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note this morning.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada spoke to Trump about trade and border security after the president-elect’s announcement, The Times reported.

China pushed back. “No one will win a trade war,” a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said in a statement.

Tying the tariffs to border security could make negotiations even trickier. But given the seemingly intractable nature of the U.S. border crisis, it sets a high bar for successful trade negotiations. On the flip side, calling the measures a national security imperative might bolster Trump’s legal authority to bypass Congress in enacting the measures. A reminder: once tariffs are introduced, they’re not easy to roll back.

gg

I just thought I'd repost my original post when I started this thread. My intention was to discuss the effects of Trump's policies on Stock and Economic matters. Now I understand that Trump's personality and personality disorders are pertinent to his effect on stocks and economics I'd just like to state that there are numerous other threads on which the finer points of psychology and his defects can be discussed. It does become a bit stretched, though understandable, when these matters consume some pages on this thread. It is in the nature of those with personality disorders that they divert people from their day to day life and important matters. Trump successfully does this.

Now, stocks and economics are important for this thread, and it has been illuminating to have a back and forth on psychology and I by no means wish to detract from the importance of this to decisions taken in the Trump administration. Suffice it to say that Trump is "bonkers" as an old friend, a Prof of Psychiatry, used describe patients who caused heated discussion among his colleagues.

The world is in quite a mess, there is danger and opportunity in the decisions of the Trump administration for members of ASF, so I'd ask members to continue discussions of these matters, to the effects on stocks, ETF's, commodities, futures and other derivatives, so that we refine our decisions and profit or limit losses in these interesting times.

gg

 

[moXJO]

hsthshy

Below I have snipped from your earlier post to confirm your posts concerning narcissism are severely lacking. You wrote:View attachment 204224
First, Trump suffers from NPD, a mental health condition you have never mentioned. He probably suffers from other things too, but I have provided current examples of how NPD has affected what he does, and shown why the consequences are not likely to MAGA. NPD is a very different matter from the more typical understanding we have about what a narcissist is, and very few on the spectrum are ever classified as reaching NPD. Trump's problem is not that he is just a "grandiose narcissist", but that he suffers the many additional elements of narcissism that turn it into a disorder as distinct from a characteristic.

Second, your claims about narcissism and lie detector tests have no basis beyond the fact that they are more prone to use countermeasures to defeat them. You never presented any evidence that they would be more successful than a good liar. The consesnus is that good liars would do better. Nor did you provide any evidence of how many narcissists are in the CIA versus how many would have NPD. Nor did you name names, provide their posistions, or explain which element/s of narcissism they had that caused problems.

Finally, I don't care what you believe. I have no idea where to go to find or use chatGPT, and are not interested in it anyway. I suggest you take your focus off ad hominems and instead concentrate on content.

As I said from the outset, narcissism has several healthy elements, and only becomes a problem when more of its elements on the spectrum are present, and they are its higher levels. When it manifest into NPD, as it has for Trump, a very wide range of typical decision making strategies are negatively affected. Nowhere is this better demonstrated than through Trump's vindictiveness. Apart from pardoning hundreds of criminals that stormed the Capitol during an insurrection, Trump has weaponised the DOJ to go after those responsible for their incarceration. And just a few days ago Trump dismissed (without explanation) the prosecutor responsible for convicting his good friends in Epstein and Maxwell of paedophilia.

Trump's Presidency is still in its early days, and the decisions he has made on so many fronts have barely scratched the surface. I see the biggest question as being how the extent of America's coming economic demise will afffect global markets. I can't see it being as severe as the GFC, but nations holding US bonds could get burnt.

Probably the bullet points you keep copying straight from the llms

 

[moXJO]

I just thought I'd repost my original post when I started this thread. My intention was to discuss the effects of Trump's policies on Stock and Economic matters. Now I understand that Trump's personality and personality disorders are pertinent to his effect on stocks and economics I'd just like to state that there are numerous other threads on which the finer points of psychology and his defects can be discussed. It does become a bit stretched, though understandable, when these matters consume some pages on this thread. It is in the nature of those with personality disorders that they divert people from their day to day life and important matters. Trump successfully does this.

Now, stocks and economics are important for this thread, and it has been illuminating to have a back and forth on psychology and I by no means wish to detract from the importance of this to decisions taken in the Trump administration. Suffice it to say that Trump is "bonkers" as an old friend, a Prof of Psychiatry, used describe patients who caused heated discussion among his colleagues.

The world is in quite a mess, there is danger and opportunity in the decisions of the Trump administration for members of ASF, so I'd ask members to continue discussions of these matters, to the effects on stocks, ETF's, commodities, futures and other derivatives, so that we refine our decisions and profit or limit losses in these interesting times.

gg

Sorry GGI haven't given rob any stick for a while.
Nothing bites like a comrade.

These Trump threads always seem to end up in millions of articles on Trump being a sht cnt.
News Flash people!!*!!
Everyone fking knows.
Who are people trying to convince?