Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Garpal Gumnut]

The following is not contained in any official figures on the US economic picture. I have over this weekend been reading and watching news and business publications and audio/visual content and have been struck by one thing.

Everyone bar a few who are unemployable are in the USA busy in real jobs producing and making lots of money. This goes from kids in the hospitality industry benefitting from tax free tips to steel workers, data and IT service deliverers and semi conductor makers.

The place is booming making real goods and delivering real services. I believe anyone who thinks there is going to be a recession or a fall in interest rates is in error. As for the latter, should Trump fire the chairman of the Fed this will lead only to lower interest rates higher productivity, without inflation imo, the opposite of stagflation.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

D

The following is not contained in any official figures on the US economic picture. I have over this weekend been reading and watching news and business publications and audio/visual content and have been struck by one thing.

Everyone bar a few who are unemployable are in the USA busy in real jobs producing and making lots of money. This goes from kids in the hospitality industry benefitting from tax free tips to steel workers, data and IT service deliverers and semi conductor makers.

The place is booming making real goods and delivering real services. I believe anyone who thinks there is going to be a recession or a fall in interest rates is in error. As for the latter, should Trump fire the chairman of the Fed this will lead only to lower interest rates higher productivity, without inflation imo, the opposite of stagflation.

gg

Do not tell that to any TDS affected person, it is doom and gloom only.
I believe for the US, it is as good as it gets.
Will it be enough to starve financial Armageddon? Probably not and Trump will be blamed, but pushing Ukraine war and seizing Russian money with its USD implications will be remembered in history as the trigger in the US fall after decades of economical neglect, not Trump

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

D

Do not tell that to any TDS affected person, it is doom and gloom only.
I believe for the US, it is as good as it gets.
Will it be enough to starve financial Armageddon? Probably not and Trump will be blamed, but pushing Ukraine war and seizing Russian money with its USD implications will be remembered in history as the trigger in the US fall after decades of economical neglect, not Trump

While I agree that there is anti-Tump sentiment out there, much of it justified, his personal behaviour and greed, his violation of society's norms and financial impropriety; he has let loose the gods of capitalism again in the USA. This I believe will be world challenging and changing over the next ten years and is a small price to pay for the benefits which will accrue.

When the historians look back, his signal moves on a stagnant and rotten political class will be applauded. He is smart, even using them in their own destruction via Congress and the Senate. His behaviour is very similar to that of Caesar, and for anyone interested in the repetition of history I would recommend Tom Hollands latest book, recently published, called

The Lives of the Caesars by Seutonius Author Tom Holland ISBN 13 ... 978-0241186893​

It is an arresting book. As we all know Caesar was assassinated before he could enjoy the fruits of his conquests ...

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Why Take the Risk of Raising Tariffs?

“In addition to the risk of boosting tariffs previously discussed, another consideration for many is David Ricardo's ‘law of comparative advantage,’ which is the benefit accruing to all countries that engage in international trade, even if a country does not have the lowest total cost of producing a good.

“However, for this benefit to work, all countries engaging in trade must allow Adam Smith's ‘invisible hand’ to prevail. But the world has many mercantilists, some of whose practices result in massive intrusions on the ‘invisible hand,’ which, in turn, have hollowed out the US industrial base to the benefit of other countries.

“As demonstrated by the supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine War, the US experienced severe shortages of drugs, medical equipment, and a host of other products that could not be produced domestically. Command and control dominate free markets in these mercantilist economies. Thus, by hollowing out the US industrial base, the world’s resources are being more inefficiently distributed, and thereby reducing the capacity of the global economy to raise its standard of living.

“Since negotiations have consistently failed to reverse this situation, tariffs, despite their negative effects, remain the only viable tool to create a more strategically diversified industrial economy and to move the world back toward a more efficient allocation of its resources.”
- Dr Lacy Hunt.

From his latest quarterly report, a strong argument, with plenty of evidence, describing the economic damage tariffs typically cause. It was exactly what you would expect from a passionate free market advocate.. Then came the last paragraph !!

 

[TimeISmoney]

The following is not contained in any official figures on the US economic picture. I have over this weekend been reading and watching news and business publications and audio/visual content and have been struck by one thing.

Everyone bar a few who are unemployable are in the USA busy in real jobs producing and making lots of money. This goes from kids in the hospitality industry benefitting from tax free tips to steel workers, data and IT service deliverers and semi conductor makers.

The place is booming making real goods and delivering real services. I believe anyone who thinks there is going to be a recession or a fall in interest rates is in error. As for the latter, should Trump fire the chairman of the Fed this will lead only to lower interest rates higher productivity, without inflation imo, the opposite of stagflation.

gg

The batten may be handed to the next president, inflation is creeping up and he keeps on adding to the national debt. People are going to work their arses off just to stay afloat IMO.


In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics. Fed officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday, and are widely expected to keep rates unchanged again.

Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter, largely due to a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, while job growth moderated in July. The third marquee report may show underlying inflation picked up slightly in June from a month earlier.
While the government’s advance estimate of GDP for the quarter is projected to show an annualized 2.4% increase — after the economy shrank 0.5% in January-March — Wednesday’s report will probably reveal only modest household demand and business investment.

The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey calls for a 1.5% gain in consumer spending to mark the weakest back-to-back quarters since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. A shaky housing market also weighed on second-quarter activity.
At the end of the week, the July jobs report is forecast to show companies are becoming more deliberate in their hiring. Employment likely moderated after a June increase that was boosted by a jump in education payrolls, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 4.2%.
Private payrolls are projected to rise by 100,000 after the smallest advance in eight months. Through the first half of the year, the pace of hiring by companies has eased compared with the 2024 average.

The breadth of job growth has been relatively narrow as well. A few Fed officials have started to raise concerns about what they see as a fragile job market, including two who’ve said they see merit in considering a rate cut now. Pressure is also mounting from outside the boardroom. President Donald Trump has been vocal about his desire to see Powell & Co. lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

Pressure Mounts on Fed Chief Powell in Tee Up to GDP, Jobs Data

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank’s board room on Tuesday to deliberate on interest rates at a time of immense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic cross-currents.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[IFocus]

From what I understand interest rate cuts are already baked in to the market for this year or next year also sacking Powel won’t change a great deal given the board has 19 members you might get a few points lower but not what Trump is raving about.

Biggest issue ATM is lack of certainty sort term / long term

 

[Smurf1976]

should Trump fire the chairman of the Fed this will lead only to lower interest rates higher productivity, without inflation imo, the opposite of stagflation.

I'm not following your logic there?

As you point out:

Everyone bar a few who are unemployable are in the USA busy in real jobs producing and making lots of money.

That being so, where's the ability to ramp up production in order to match an increase in credit? Production is already maxed out is it not?

 

[Craton]

The following is not contained in any official figures on the US economic picture. I have over this weekend been reading and watching news and business publications and audio/visual content and have been struck by one thing.

Everyone bar a few who are unemployable are in the USA busy in real jobs producing and making lots of money. This goes from kids in the hospitality industry benefitting from tax free tips to steel workers, data and IT service deliverers and semi conductor makers.

The place is booming making real goods and delivering real services. I believe anyone who thinks there is going to be a recession or a fall in interest rates is in error. As for the latter, should Trump fire the chairman of the Fed this will lead only to lower interest rates higher productivity, without inflation imo, the opposite of stagflation.

gg

From the Bureau of Labour Statistics News Release from the US Department of Labor, June 2025 and released 3 July 2025 there are some interesting stats. One can draw their own conclusions.

As per attached PDF. Extract:

Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, in line with the average monthly
gain of 146,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job gains occurred in state government and health
care. Federal government continued to lose jobs. (See table B-1.)

Government employment rose by 73,000 in June. Employment in state government increased by
47,000, largely in education (+40,000). Employment in local government education continued to trend
up (+23,000). Job losses continued in federal government (-7,000), where employment is down by
69,000 since reaching a recent peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing
severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

Health care added 39,000 jobs in June, similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12
months. In June, job gains occurred in hospitals (+16,000) and in nursing and residential care facilities
(+14,000).

In June, social assistance employment continued to trend up (+19,000), reflecting continued growth in
individual and family services (+16,000).

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining,
quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade;
transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business
services; leisure and hospitality; and other services

 

[TimeISmoney]

From what I understand interest rate cuts are already baked in to the market for this year or next year also sacking Powel won’t change a great deal given the board has 19 members you might get a few points lower but not what Trump is raving about.

Biggest issue ATM is lack of certainty sort term / long term

That's what makes sacking Powell stupid, because it's not just Powell who decides where the interest goes, it's the whole board. The board members might retaliate and keep the rates higher because they're being told what to do.

 

[farmerge]

While I agree that there is anti-Tump sentiment out there, much of it justified, his personal behaviour and greed, his violation of society's norms and financial impropriety; he has let loose the gods of capitalism again in the USA. This I believe will be world challenging and changing over the next ten years and is a small price to pay for the benefits which will accrue.

When the historians look back, his signal moves on a stagnant and rotten political class will be applauded. He is smart, even using them in their own destruction via Congress and the Senate. His behaviour is very similar to that of Caesar, and for anyone interested in the repetition of history I would recommend Tom Hollands latest book, recently published, called

The Lives of the Caesars by Seutonius Author Tom Holland ISBN 13 ... 978-0241186893​

It is an arresting book. As we all know Caesar was assassinated before he could enjoy the fruits of his conquests ...

gg

Perhaps this might be The Trumpet's end also.

 

[DannyB0000]

US and EU Strike Trade Deal - Sharecafe

The United States and the European Union have reached a trade agreement following discussions between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The deal, announced on Sunday, averts a potential trade war and establishes new terms for tariffs and investments...

www.sharecafe.com.au

No EU US trade war, EU has caved in to Trump's threats

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm not following your logic there?

As you point out:



That being so, where's the ability to ramp up production in order to match an increase in credit? Production is already maxed out is it not?

My thoughts were that production is only "maxed out" to a perceived maximum, not taking in to account an increase in production to a new maximum either natively or through controlled immigration.

I take your comment, I'm not an economist so begin treading water at this stage of the argument. Thanks @Smurf1976

gg

 

[TimeISmoney]

I hope the Trump lovers are happy with this!




Australia only received the baseline rate, largely because it buys more from the US than it sells. But Trump clearly doesn't think that baseline rate cuts it anymore. He said it would likely be lifted to "somewhere in the 15 to 20 per cent range", an idea he had first floated during a phone interview with NBC earlier this month.

If this comes to pass — and it's a big "if", given Trump's tendency to announce policy one day and backtrack the next — it would be a massive economic blow to Australian businesses that export to the US.
While the current 10 per cent impost makes Australian products more expensive for US consumers and less competitive relative to American goods, it was thought to give Australian businesses a leg up compared to countries hit with reciprocal tariffs.
It had looked like 10 per cent was the floor rate, and no other country would receive a more favourable arrangement. It also gave Australia little incentive to negotiate a better deal with the US, since the Trump administration didn't seem willing to go lower than 10 per cent or drop it entirely.

But if Trump now imposes a 20 per cent baseline tariff, Australia will be disadvantaged compared to countries that have already struck better deals — or at least "frameworks" of deals. The UK, Japan, and now the EU have all said they've secured deals where their exports to the US are hit with a 15 per cent duty.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07...medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

 

[over9k]

EU-USA agree to 15% tariffs, truce called in the USA-China trade "war", looks like the china tariffs may end up settling at close to the same level.

 

[over9k]

Taking it back to Trump's tariffs - Australia manufacturing is on its knees we are creating nothing but government/taxpayer funded jobs (80% of jobs last year) and energy prices are too high.

At least Trump administration has some semblance of a long term plan because Australia at the moment is dropping faster than a stone. Exactly what do the people think is going to happen here with zero intervention?
We are losing all industry and the skills that go with it.

Either the government needs to get serious about grid upgrades for cheaper energy. That means now to catch the upside of automation.
Look at how they can offer super cheap energy to industrial parks in future build outs.
A multitude of other stuff obviously.

Get away from creating more government jobs needs to be a priority unless its in education.

This is the point of long term planning and security for a country. Either you make changes and go through the higher costs and difficulties or you end up a broke backwater. If we weren't digging holes Australia would be stuffed now.
Putting our head in the sand isn't going to cut it.

Demographics.

We've been sitting on this particular time bomb for a while and the titanic has just hit the metaphorical iceberg:


Result:



The U.S is the best of the first world countries for this particular imbalance.

Get into healthcare folks, it's going to be the only industry left soon

 

[over9k]

From what I understand interest rate cuts are already baked in to the market for this year or next year

Just FYI and for anyone else that doesn't know, bond interest rates (yields) are publicly available information, you don't need any kind of subscription service to see what they're trading at:



The current target rate is 4.5 and bonds are pricing in cuts down to the 4.07% (i.e two cuts) by the 1 year mark and then you can see the other years and their corresponding expected interest rates (remember that bonds trade at what the market expects the central bank to do) running down accordingly.

So yeah, as you can see markets are pricing in one more cut very soon and then another in 6 months.

United States Government Bonds - Yields Curve

United States Government Bonds and Yields Curve. Updated charts and tables, agencies ratings, spread comparisons, current prices.

www.worldgovernmentbonds.com

 

[sptrawler]

Support packages for coal mines. Essentially stranded assets. WA obviously has too much money.

Aren't the East Coast coal generators being propped up by the Governments also? Sounds like a pot calling the kettle grimy ar$e

NSW government throws Eraring power station a lifeline until 2027

Australia’s largest coal-fired power station will continue operating for another three years.

www.smh.com.au

 

[qldfrog]

Demographics.

We've been sitting on this particular time bomb for a while and the titanic has just hit the metaphorical iceberg:

View attachment 204895View attachment 204896
Result:
View attachment 204894


The U.S is the best of the first world countries for this particular imbalance.

Get into healthcare folks, it's going to be the only industry left soon

Great data:
I would just point that for most western countries, health employment is directly or indirectly a mostly public service.
Via the local medicare, mandatory health insurance and various tax money transfer.
These figures de facto represent a growing move to a state controlled economy with its ultimate unsustainable self collapse.
For your own sake, is it better to invest in health shares or a tax advisor and Virgin islands company?

 

[sptrawler]

Demographics.

We've been sitting on this particular time bomb for a while and the titanic has just hit the metaphorical iceberg:

The U.S is the best of the first world countries for this particular imbalance.

Get into healthcare folks, it's going to be the only industry left soon

There is no point in getting into healthcare IMO, if the Government can't support the public system and the plebs can't afford insurance.

I agree with you @over9k, the proverbial good ship has hit the iceberg, the only problem is no one is accepting it is sinking.

Trump is only protecting the U.S, as the U.S always does, the tariffs are the only way that the U.S can retain its financial credibility.

Currently they are the second largest manufacturing base, after China, but that is fast diminishing as China runs a huge trade surplus on cheap exports.

These exports are mainly paid for by the U.S which is by far the biggest market place, the only way the U.S can reduce its dependence on cheap Chinese imports (which it actually brought about by introducing globalisation), is to make the Chinese product dearer and their home grown product more attractive.
This in turn will improve their balance of payments, reduce their dependence on imports and drive up their domestic production.

It isn't nice, but it is the only fast way of turning the decline in the U.S to a budget that is sustainable, the fact it affects everyone else has never bothered the U.S in the past, why people think they would care now is what bemuses me.

Australia needs to look at its own sustainability, running deficits to pay for an inefficient economy is crazy and will end in disaster. on most measures Australia is going backwards, other than Government spending.

Our educational standards are falling, our productivity is falling, our ranking on the world industrialisation index is falling, we are become an economy which is completely at the mercy of commodity prices as it is our only major income.

Meanwhile we import more people and reduce our technical acceptance standards, to facilitate our lack of supporting developing our own skills.

It has to end badly, politicians are sleeping at the wheel IMO. Unless politicians start and realise their limitations and take the situation seriously it will become irreversible IMO.

I was in Africa in 2012 and I have recently revisited the same places, the change is astronomical and I will be surprised if Australia doesn't start and feel the economic fallout from the rise of Africa very soon.

As we say time will tell, but we are living a champange lifestyle on a beer budget, time will tell if we can sustain it. Trump is looking after Trump, which means he needs the U.S middle class in his resorts and if the demise of U.S manufacturing goes on, so does the loss of people who can afford to pay to stay in his places.

Then again healthcare might be a winner, it certainly has been in the U.S and their healthcare is a basket case apparently.
Maybe a good call @over9k, my appologies.

 

[over9k]

Maybe a good call @over9k, my appologies.

Yeah I can't remember the exact year but due to the simple process of exponential deteriorating as we age the average person uses something like as much of the healthcare system in their last 7 years as they do in the previous 70.

So with the baby boom starting in 1946, we're there