The Turnbull Government

[SirRumpole]

But yes, i can't imagine any of the Liberal supporters lettign Labor get away with buying a copper network and admitting they have no idea of the condition of said copper is, nor how much they will have to spent on top of their purchase price to get it into a usable state.

Labor doesn't seem to be doing their job either, to hold the government to account over the NBN.

Who is Labor's spokesman on the NBN ? Albanese ? I haven't heard a word from him on this issue.

 

[overhang]

Have you listened to it ?

If you do, you'll find it puts everything into context including FTTN.

Yes I listened to it long ago and it really doesn't put much into context all with the FTTN at all. The admission of Simon Hacketts is that previous NBN board was running the show very inefficiently, he was quite optimistic about the use of HFC networks but didn't share the same passion about the FTTN.

I think you'll find his more recent comments give a greater context of the FTTN, please don't ignore those comments to fit the narrative you want to follow.

 

[drsmith]

Yes I listened to it long ago and it really doesn't put much into context all with the FTTN at all. The admission of Simon Hacketts is that previous NBN board was running the show very inefficiently, he was quite optimistic about the use of HFC networks but didn't share the same passion about the FTTN.

I think you'll find his more recent comments give a greater context of the FTTN, please don't ignore those comments to fit the narrative you want to follow.

Perhaps you should listen to it again. If you do, you'll note that problems with the rollout before the government changed went beyond the board. Simon specifically mentions political influence in reference to the former Labor government.

What's in the above article about FTTP isn't materially different to what he said in the presentation. He has always preferred FTTP as technology of choice. The presentation though goes into more detail both directly on FTTN and the kind of wand that would have to be waved to get FTTP (more money). That hasn't changed.

 

[overhang]

Perhaps you should listen to it again. If you do, you'll note that problems with the rollout before the government changed went beyond the board. Simon specifically mentions political influence in reference to the former Labor government.

What's in the above article about FTTP isn't materially different to what he said in the presentation. He has always preferred FTTP as technology of choice. The presentation though goes into more detail both directly on FTTN and the kind of wand that would have to be waved to get FTTP (more money). That hasn't changed.

You're using him to push a point on FTTN when he doesn't support FTTN and never has. He believes that FTTP should be used in conjunction with HFC networks where possible.

I hope he does a new blog soon as it will be interesting what he has to say now that the new corporate plan has been released that shows that the coalition NBN is going to be well over budget whilst the FTTP is well under the projected costing that the coalition campaigned on. Considering it's widely acknowledged including by MT that FTTP is the end game and that we will require FTTP some time in the future then at what point does it become economically sensible to pay the bit more for FTTP now than in the future considering the % difference between the two plans has come down dramatically from the coalition campaign. FTTN is also substantially more difficult to estimate costs due to the rather unknown state of the network and will be more prone to cost blowouts then FTTP.

 

[drsmith]

You're using him to push a point on FTTN when he doesn't support FTTN and never has. He believes that FTTP should be used in conjunction with HFC networks where possible.

If you review the original point I made in this thread, it was about FTTP, specifically the FTTP rollout under Labor.

I've posted the following in the NBN thread on more than one occasion and I know it's difficult listening for those who bought Stephen Conroy's FTTP NBN fantasy but for a broader perspective, it's well worth a listen.

http://simonhackett.com/2014/09/06/rebooting-the-nbn/

I hope he does a new blog soon as it will be interesting what he has to say now that the new corporate plan has been released that shows that the coalition NBN is going to be well over budget whilst the FTTP is well under the projected costing that the coalition campaigned on. Considering it's widely acknowledged including by MT that FTTP is the end game and that we will require FTTP some time in the future then at what point does it become economically sensible to pay the bit more for FTTP now than in the future considering the % difference between the two plans has come down dramatically from the coalition campaign. FTTN is also substantially more difficult to estimate costs due to the rather unknown state of the network and will be more prone to cost blowouts then FTTP.

If you want to live in the hope that he says something different to what he's said before, that's up to you.

Page 39 of the 2016 corporate plan reveals the latest cost ranges for FTTP and MTM.

Management estimates that an all-FTTP fixed line rollout could be completed by 2026 but possibly as late as 2028, with a peak funding range of $74-84 billion (vs. $46-56 billion for MTM) depending on critical sensitivities around peak construction rates, construction and operating cost, and revenue generation.

First positive free cash flow is estimated to be achieved between FY26 and FY31 for an all-FTTP fixed line rollout (vs. FY22 for MTM).

 

[overhang]

If you review the original point I made in this thread, it was about FTTP, specifically the FTTP rollout under Labor.

And in making that point you used Simon Hackett who doesn't support the FTTN that you support and actually still supports the FTTP, he isn't an example you should use to get your point across.

Page 39 of the 2016 corporate plan reveals the latest cost ranges for FTTP and MTM.

Yes those were the costings I was referring to and I as I said when you look at what the coalition campaigned on which was 29.6 billion for the FTTN and 90 billion for the FTTP then you'll note that the difference in costings between the two plans has decreased quite substantially. And at what point does it become more economically sensible for NBN co to build the FTTP network given it's acknowledged that it will be required in the future.

 

[drsmith]

And in making that point you used Simon Hackett who doesn't support the FTTN that you support and actually still supports the FTTP, he isn't an example you should use to get your point across.

Just because I'm don't support FTTP at any cost like Labor did in government, don't translate that to supporting FTTN as the best technological solution.

The point is that it's about more than just the technology and that the costs projected under Labor were false. If I wish to use the contribution of Simon Hackett or anyone else to articulate that point, then I will. When compared to the media article you posted, his presentation from last year covers a much broader range of issues and offers a much better context of where each element fits relative to the other.

Yes those were the costings I was referring to and I as I said when you look at what the coalition campaigned on which was 29.6 billion for the FTTN and 90 billion for the FTTP then you'll note that the difference in costings between the two plans has decreased quite substantially. And at what point does it become more economically sensible for NBN co to build the FTTP network given it's acknowledged that it will be required in the future.

That $90m FTTP estimate as you would remember was a worst case scenario which, interestingly, in dollar terms we now seem to be approaching as the latest cost estimate for FTTP has also been revised up.

What doesn't make sense is to throw whatever it takes at FTTP as an end in itself as Labor tried to do.

 

[So_Cynical]

You're using him to push a point on FTTN when he doesn't support FTTN and never has. He believes that FTTP should be used in conjunction with HFC networks where possible.

Bill Morrow recently gave a speech at the National Press Club, i happened to watch it.

http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/national-press-club-address (start at 35.10)

Points raised - FTTN roll-out imminent, if you are within 400 meters of the Node you will get speeds up to 100 Gbit/s, out to 700 meters and your speed drops by half, this will cover 4.5 million homes, 2.2 million homes getting shafted with the slower speed.

But its all good because 90% of all current NBN connections are of 25/5Mbps or less, so its the old Telstra line of "why do you need faster speeds" and even if every one is limited to 25/5Mbps its still way faster than the DSL you have now.

 

[galumay]

What doesn't make sense is to throw whatever it takes at FTTP as an end in itself as Labor tried to do.

Thats debatable, FTTP is the right solution, most in the industry share that view, including Hackett. I guess from your side of the political fence you see that as a cost too high for an oucome. I think that those of us on the other side who have an interest and knowledge of the subject, saw it as one of those nation building infrastructure projects that are worth building even though the cost seems high from the perspective of the present.

There was an advantage in infrastructure spending in a part of the economic cycle where debt was very cheap, unfortunately the obsession with returning to surpluses over rode a more mature, long term economic view.

What Turdbull has straddled us with is not one thing or the other, its cost a lot but its not future proof - we will have to invest more in the future to bring the NBN up to speed, so to speak. I guess he was partly bound by a party that obviously were largely luddites and really dont have a clue about IT and Tech in general - but given the promotion of him as being some sort of tech savvy guy, its still a poor outcome from his time in the ministry.

Of course there are other structural problems with the NBN, such as the ACCC's stupid decision on the number of POI's for the NBN, but the blame doenst lie with government for those.

I was of course joking when i said maybe Hockey wouldnt be worse than Turnbull, he would be utterly out of his depth and I shudder to think what might be the result! Then again he couldnt do a much worse job than Conroy for most of his time in the role!!

 

[overhang]

Just because I'm don't support FTTP at any cost like Labor did in government, don't translate that to supporting FTTN as the best technological solution.

Out of curiosity do you support any sort of NBN or would you prefer we leave it to the private sector or leave it until we absolutely need it? Is it a case of you supporting the option that requires the least capital outlay?

Bill Morrow recently gave a speech at the National Press Club, i happened to watch it.

http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/national-press-club-address (start at 35.10)

Points raised - FTTN roll-out imminent, if you are within 400 meters of the Node you will get speeds up to 100 Gbit/s, out to 700 meters and your speed drops by half, this will cover 4.5 million homes, 2.2 million homes getting shafted with the slower speed.

But its all good because 90% of all current NBN connections are of 25/5Mbps or less, so its the old Telstra line of "why do you need faster speeds" and even if every one is limited to 25/5Mbps its still way faster than the DSL you have now.

I'll check it out thanks, is that stat though based on people connected to wireless NBN who only have 25/5 as an option? My father actually connected the wireless NBN last night and received 15 mbps down on the first test and then 9 on the next test, it will be adequate for his needs though.

 

[sydboy007]

Bill Morrow recently gave a speech at the National Press Club, i happened to watch it.

http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/national-press-club-address (start at 35.10)

Points raised - FTTN roll-out imminent, if you are within 400 meters of the Node you will get speeds up to 100 Gbit/s, out to 700 meters and your speed drops by half, this will cover 4.5 million homes, 2.2 million homes getting shafted with the slower speed.

But its all good because 90% of all current NBN connections are of 25/5Mbps or less, so its the old Telstra line of "why do you need faster speeds" and even if every one is limited to 25/5Mbps its still way faster than the DSL you have now.

Curious. I don't believe that 90% of NBN customers are on 25 or less plans. That doesn't match what I support at work. I'd say 10-15% of customers are on 100 plans with another 15-20% on 50. There'd be more customers on 25 plans than 12. I'm not sure what total the nbn is for our customer base, bit it seems to be growing at a decent clip. Some POIs seen to be on monthly to semi monthly bandwidth upgrades. Can't wait till we migrate over to 10 gbs dwdm wavelengths for all POIs. Capacity upgrades will be such a simple affair then.

 

[drsmith]

Thats debatable, FTTP is the right solution, most in the industry share that view, including Hackett. I guess from your side of the political fence you see that as a cost too high for an oucome. I think that those of us on the other side who have an interest and knowledge of the subject, saw it as one of those nation building infrastructure projects that are worth building even though the cost seems high from the perspective of the present.

If you wish to paint people as being in political corners on this, that's up to you. I'm not interested in going down that path.

If cost wasn't an issue then obviously it comes down to the technology (and timeframe too but that's another issue and in itself partly related to cost). The board doesn't have a bottomless pit of taxpayers money to do this. Perhaps you think it should. That's up to you.

 

[drsmith]

Out of curiosity do you support any sort of NBN or would you prefer we leave it to the private sector or leave it until we absolutely need it? Is it a case of you supporting the option that requires the least capital outlay?

The option that requires the least capital outlay is to obviously have done nothing.

Having privatised Telstra's wholesale network, it's an interesting question as to whether the Labor government should have then down the path of effectively building a new public network from the ground up and having gone down that path, made a huge mess of it. Remember too that it was their plan B.

Perhaps Telstra's wholesale network should have been retained by the Howard Government but sometimes when these things are done, they're more difficult to undo.

 

[sydboy007]

If you wish to paint people as being in political corners on this, that's up to you. I'm not interested in going down that path.

If cost wasn't an issue then obviously it comes down to the technology (and timeframe too but that's another issue and in itself partly related to cost). The board doesn't have a bottomless pit of taxpayers money to do this. Perhaps you think it should. That's up to you.

http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/584696/senate-demands-release-nbn-fttp-analysis/

we might get some figures to help show whether the FTTP costs that MT provided are accurate or pumped up. We'll also get a better understanding of how they came up with the cost for FTTN.

Will be interesting if the lack of transparency is continued or they actually provide the senate with unredacted copies of the information. I really don't see why all this information hasn't been in the public domain.

 

[galumay]

If you wish to paint people as being in political corners on this, that's up to you. I'm not interested in going down that path.

If cost wasn't an issue then obviously it comes down to the technology (and timeframe too but that's another issue and in itself partly related to cost). The board doesn't have a bottomless pit of taxpayers money to do this. Perhaps you think it should. That's up to you.

Yes, perhaps i was being too simplistic, after all both sides of politics have made a hash of what was potentially the biggest and most improtant infrastructure project in a few generations.

It didnt ever require a "bottomless pit of taxpayers money", but it did require some leadership and an understanding of the long term payoffs of projects like this, sadly the vision was obscured.

Regardless, given the legacy of Turnbull's time in communications - which gave us a crippled NBN and the much despised data retention laws - I dont think he gets a very high mark.

His populism is undeniable, but whether its sustainable in the face of the pressures discussed before with extreme fundamentalist christians and super-dries all undermining him from within and the previous minister for propoganda, Murdoch and his minions sniping from the sideline is debatable.

I hope for the good of the country he can sieze back control of the liberal party from the extremists and diminish the bias and impact of the Murdoch empire as well as moving forward with real bipartisan endevour on a wide range of fronts. Maybe he can help the ALP find their moral compass too, after their disgraceful capitulation on issues of morality such as data retention, treatement of refugees and discrimination in marriage. Probably a bit much to expect though!

 

[SirRumpole]

Yes, perhaps i was being too simplistic, after all both sides of politics have made a hash of what was potentially the biggest and most improtant infrastructure project in a few generations.

Rudd & Conroy should have handed the NBN to Infrastructure Australia to design and manage instead of trying to do it themselves, and so should have Abbott. There has been too much political interference in this project from both sides.

 

[noco]

There is no doubt the change in the Liberal Party leadership has broken the little hearts of the Lug Party and whilst Turnbull is not my favorite boy, the change over to him from Abbott has done the trick...The latest poll showing the Coalition in front 51 to 49% and Turnbull 2 to 1 ahead of Shorten as preferred Prime Minister....What a difference a day makes.

Shorten has been no match for Turnbull when it comes to question time in parliament....Turnbull has the oration, the charisma and above all has the female appeal.

What now for barnacle Bill?......Perhaps another midnight back stabbing event but this time by Tanya....I really don't think the results of the TURC will be needed to shift Billy boy off his perch....If the polls continue to go against Bill, he may be gone by Xmas 2015.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/29562764/malcolms-big-move-crushes-labor-hopes-and-hearts/

 

[Tisme]

Curious. I don't believe that 90% of NBN customers are on 25 or less plans. That doesn't match what I support at work. I'd say 10-15% of customers are on 100 plans with another 15-20% on 50. There'd be more customers on 25 plans than 12. I'm not sure what total the nbn is for our customer base, bit it seems to be growing at a decent clip. Some POIs seen to be on monthly to semi monthly bandwidth upgrades. Can't wait till we migrate over to 10 gbs dwdm wavelengths for all POIs. Capacity upgrades will be such a simple affair then.

The few people I know on the NBN are on greenfield sites and one, my Liberal mate who dines with now past PMs is on 50 = loves it and was guilty of pushing the party line prior to the wake up.

Meanwhile I have swung three of my premises over to ADSL digital ready for NBN and seen my speed drop by 10%; go figure. The phones with internet access are nice though.

 

[Logique]

Good and decent men, no question, but...

When all the emotion dies down, perhaps a more sober assessment will prevail, as Miranda Devine says.

The future relationship of the new leadership with the PMs department will be an interesting one to watch.

A mess of his own making
Miranda Devine - 14 September 2015
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailyteleg...ytelegraph/comments/a_mess_of_his_own_making/

...The truth is Abbott was given fair warning in February, in the leadership spill that wasn’t. That was a shot across his bows: change two fundamental elements of his government, or else.

First, remove the lacklustre Treasurer Joe Hockey and, second, change the way your office functions – in other words, end your reliance on chief of staff Peta Credlin...

 

[sydboy007]

The few people I know on the NBN are on greenfield sites and one, my Liberal mate who dines with now past PMs is on 50 = loves it and was guilty of pushing the party line prior to the wake up.

Meanwhile I have swung three of my premises over to ADSL digital ready for NBN and seen my speed drop by 10%; go figure. The phones with internet access are nice though.

Even the senator for bestiality loves it.

Will be very interesting to see how the FTTN rollout has progressed by the next election. Won't take too many up ticks in remediation to slow things down, or the odd asbestos scare.

I can't believe that tax payers have been loaded with an unlimited asbestos liability by the govt. Telstra must be laughing all the way to the bank.