The state of the economy at the street level

[Smurf1976]

If the aim is to measure the size of the government workforce then I'll argue the most accurate way to consider it, in terms of serving the intent, is to count all jobs funded by taxes and not to count any jobs funded by the sale of something on commercial terms in the market.

It's a technicality to argue that a road maintenance contractor is "private enterprise" when the work's being done at the request of government, on a government owned asset, and 100% of the money's coming from taxpayers. To say that's private might be true in a legal technicality sense but not really in the spirt of what's intended, every one of those workers is funded by taxation in practice. All it really is, is the privatised Public Works Department but it's still taxpayers paying for it.

In the other direction if something's owned by government but is self-funding from the sale of services to willing purchasers, having no access to taxpayer funds, then it's not really part of the public service in the manner intended. Taxpayers aren't funding it even though government owns it. Especially so if it's set up as a standalone shareholder owned corporation, the only link to government being that it owns the shares.

So I'll argue that it's workers funded by taxpayers, regardless how technicalities of how they're employed, that's the most relevant measure.

 

[TimeISmoney]

What they should measure in public services is the productivity rate; then we're talking facts that count.

 

[divs4ever]

Here's What The World's Paying For Eggs​

Here's What The World's Paying For Eggs | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Value Hunter]

If the aim is to measure the size of the government workforce then I'll argue the most accurate way to consider it, in terms of serving the intent, is to count all jobs funded by taxes and not to count any jobs funded by the sale of something on commercial terms in the market.

It's a technicality to argue that a road maintenance contractor is "private enterprise" when the work's being done at the request of government, on a government owned asset, and 100% of the money's coming from taxpayers. To say that's private might be true in a legal technicality sense but not really in the spirt of what's intended, every one of those workers is funded by taxation in practice. All it really is, is the privatised Public Works Department but it's still taxpayers paying for it.

In the other direction if something's owned by government but is self-funding from the sale of services to willing purchasers, having no access to taxpayer funds, then it's not really part of the public service in the manner intended. Taxpayers aren't funding it even though government owns it. Especially so if it's set up as a standalone shareholder owned corporation, the only link to government being that it owns the shares.

So I'll argue that it's workers funded by taxpayers, regardless how technicalities of how they're employed, that's the most relevant measure.

What you are saying is true however the issue is how to find statistics like this on a range of countries. For most countries it would be too difficult to accurately estimate this figure.

 

[JohnDe]

I'm seeing an increase of people in the upper middle class wealth zone selling stuff on Facebook Market place.

My watch collecting hobby has helped me see changes in the economy at the street level, when I first started looking the secondhand watch market there wasn't a lot of private stuff around locally, most of the good stuff is on eBay. But I prefer to look locally so I can go and inspect the items, that means looking on Facebook Marketplace. For the past several months most of the watches advertised were mainly from secondhand dealers and young 20 to 30 year-olds clearing out their drawers.

However, over the past two weeks there has been an increase in people that usually wouldn't sell anything unless it was a car, house or large item. I'm seeing watches up for sale from 40 to 50 year olds, and when I check the rest of their listing it looks like they are trying to sell anything of value in an attempt to raise some cash. But they have been asking too much, and today I see that many have dropped their prices.

How to interpret this? Is it people struggling to pay the bills, or are they preparing for worse to come?

Whatever it is, it looks like I might soon be able to add to my collection.

Can you make money investing in watches?

My brother in-law has been collecting expensive Euro watches for a long time. About 12 years ago he purchased a watch for the price of a cheap small car, I was flabbergasted and thought him a selfish fool. That watch has now doubled in price. Goes to show, don't judge a book by its cover. We...

www.aussiestockforums.com

 

[divs4ever]

I'm seeing an increase of people in the upper middle class wealth zone selling stuff on Facebook Market place.

My watch collecting hobby has helped me see changes in the economy at the street level, when I first started looking the secondhand watch market there wasn't a lot of private stuff around locally, most of the good stuff is on eBay. But I prefer to look locally so I can go and inspect the items, that means looking on Facebook Marketplace. For the past several months most of the watches advertised were mainly from secondhand dealers and young 20 to 30 year-olds clearing out their drawers.

However, over the past two weeks there has been an increase in people that usually wouldn't sell anything unless it was a car, house or large item. I'm seeing watches up for sale from 40 to 50 year olds, and when I check the rest of their listing it looks like they are trying to sell anything of value in an attempt to raise some cash. But they have been asking too much, and today I see that many have dropped their prices.

How to interpret this? Is it people struggling to pay the bills, or are they preparing for worse to come?

Whatever it is, it looks like I might soon be able to add to my collection.

Can you make money investing in watches?

My brother in-law has been collecting expensive Euro watches for a long time. About 12 years ago he purchased a watch for the price of a cheap small car, I was flabbergasted and thought him a selfish fool. That watch has now doubled in price. Goes to show, don't judge a book by its cover. We...

www.aussiestockforums.com

anecdotally i see reports in some ( overseas ) places of muggings focusing on those wearing fancy watches ( assuming they cannot tell at a glance of a real expensive watch from an close copy )

i have not seen any mentioned correlation to increased home burglaries where the residents have fine watches , but that data might not exist

 

[JohnDe]

anecdotally i see reports in some ( overseas ) places of muggings focusing on those wearing fancy watches ( assuming they cannot tell at a glance of a real expensive watch from an close copy )

i have not seen any mentioned correlation to increased home burglaries where the residents have fine watches , but that data might not exist

In Australia it is cars: New car theft claims data shows rises in Queensland and Victoria

In 2015 the total value of motor vehicle theft claims was $170 million, or around $218 million in 2024 dollars. In 2024 the total value jumped to $428 million – a rise of 96 per cent in real terms.​

And a lot of car thefts are happening with thieves getting into the home to look for the keys: It's a relatively new phenomenon known as “car key burglaries”

My Holden has become a collectable on the thieves hit list, and so I always hide my keys and/or park it in front of the Tesla if we travel for extended periods.

 

[divs4ever]

In Australia it is cars: New car theft claims data shows rises in Queensland and Victoria

In 2015 the total value of motor vehicle theft claims was $170 million, or around $218 million in 2024 dollars. In 2024 the total value jumped to $428 million – a rise of 96 per cent in real terms.​

And a lot of car thefts are happening with thieves getting into the home to look for the keys: It's a relatively new phenomenon known as “car key burglaries”

My Holden has become a collectable on the thieves hit list, and so I always hide my keys and/or park it in front of the Tesla if we travel for extended periods.

that would not surprise in Queensland , the area where i used reside ( just south of Brisbane ) ram-raids were increasing at an incredible rate , one would assume one stolen vehicle to ram and a second stolen vehicle ( at least ) to carry the loot away ( and delay identification by security cameras )

i remember it that area one vehicle was stolen more than 7 days before and detected several times by watchful citizens before being used in a ram-raid

 

[UMike]

Here's What The World's Paying For Eggs​

Here's What The World's Paying For Eggs | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

We have Chickens (In Melb) .... No issues in Thailand with Eggs,

 

[Smurf1976]

Is there a shoe shortage?

I just tried to buy (online) some new shoes. Nothing fancy, just some running / walking shoes and exactly the same as the ones I already have as a replacement.

Long story short there was no problem finding places selling shoes but finding one that's not out of stock in multiple sizes, including the one I want, has been someone more difficult. I succeeded in the end, but it did prompt the question if there's a supply chain issue?

 

[divs4ever]

Is there a shoe shortage?

I just tried to buy (online) some new shoes. Nothing fancy, just some running / walking shoes and exactly the same as the ones I already have as a replacement.

Long story short there was no problem finding places selling shoes but finding one that's not out of stock in multiple sizes, including the one I want, has been someone more difficult. I succeeded in the end, but it did prompt the question if there's a supply chain issue?

i suspect the 'tariff war ' is creating some issues , mainly in logistics but maybe some retailers are hoarding ( building up inventory ) OR delaying ordering , expecting prices to drop in some countries ( as goods are diverted away from US destinations )

 

[qldfrog]

Is there a shoe shortage?

I just tried to buy (online) some new shoes. Nothing fancy, just some running / walking shoes and exactly the same as the ones I already have as a replacement.

Long story short there was no problem finding places selling shoes but finding one that's not out of stock in multiple sizes, including the one I want, has been someone more difficult. I succeeded in the end, but it did prompt the question if there's a supply chain issue?

US resellers stocking like mad before tariffs and all shipping doing China US trips before the (previous,) deadline?
plus China manufacturers stopping lines for giant ghost feet, size 11+..not much of a domestic market there ..
If China does not export, the world is bare feet....

 

[JohnDe]

I signed up to Moody's, to see what they think of Australia's economic future. If there is going to be a problem it will most likely be caused by Victoria.

The credit profile of the State of Victoria reflects the strong institutional framework for Australian states and their ability to adjust state-based revenues and expenditures as required. We expect Victoria's credit metrics will remain consistent with its rating over the next one to two years. However, debt affordability, as measured by interest payments to operating revenue, is deteriorating on a steep trajectory on the back of a continued rise in debt amid high interest rates. Based on its budget for the fiscal year ending in June 2025 (fiscal 2025), the state projects interest payments will reach 9.0% of operating revenue across the non-financial public sector (NFPS) by fiscal 2028 from an estimated 6.0% in fiscal 2024. While the state benefits from a diverse revenue profile and the underlying strength of the Australian economy, sustained capital spending (see Exhibit 2) has lead to a higher debt burden, which is unlikely to stabilize before the end of fiscal 2028. Based on the state's revised debt projections, we now expect Victoria's outstanding debt will exceed AUD254.4 billion by the end of fiscal 2028, reflecting a 64% increase over the five years from fiscal 2023, limiting headroom under current rating tolerances. ​

Moody's - credit ratings, research, and data for global capital markets

 

[Dona Ferentes]

North Melbourne, Flemington racecourse. Massive developments.

Rosehill racecourse in Sydney .... members voted to not sell.

The deal which would have seen 25,000 homes and a new metro station built on the racecourse, touted by the Premier as a “once in a generation” opportunity, fell over when put to the 11,000-strong ATC rank and file on Tuesday afternoon.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/rosehill-racecourse-redevelopment-rejected-by-australian-turf-club-members/news-story/f5d92a7142a2b2a59b6cfec601609a4e

 

[Smurf1976]

Just a practical observation but I note in the supermarket I normally go to anything on special is being "raided" and the shelves left bare.

All sorts of random products I've noticed it. Noodles, cat food, laundry detergent, deodorant, chips, just random supermarket items. I take that as a sign of shoppers actively seeking out bargains.

Separate to that, I regularly walk and have noticed a resumption of items placed out for hard waste collection. That had largely died off for a while but seems to have made a big comeback. I don't know if there's an economic signal in that one, but it's an observation of a change in behaviour - by the looks of it what's being thrown out is actual junk, not anything someone might want.

 

[Smurf1976]

In the news, it seems we're sliding back into recession:



Other media are running the same story, it's not just the ABC reporting it.

 

[qldfrog]

Just a practical observation but I note in the supermarket I normally go to anything on special is being "raided" and the shelves left bare.

All sorts of random products I've noticed it. Noodles, cat food, laundry detergent, deodorant, chips, just random supermarket items. I take that as a sign of shoppers actively seeking out bargains.

Separate to that, I regularly walk and have noticed a resumption of items placed out for hard waste collection. That had largely died off for a while but seems to have made a big comeback. I don't know if there's an economic signal in that one, but it's an observation of a change in behaviour - by the looks of it what's being thrown out is actual junk, not anything someone might want.

Noticed same for the cheapest/on sale items ..as i look for them

I have always been a cheap bastard...
Did a big shopping yesterday and i had one thought leaving Coles:
Hardly anything below $5
Per kg, per item..only "on sale items"
Just getting old maybe....

 

[divs4ever]

In the news, it seems we're sliding back into recession:



Other media are running the same story, it's not just the ABC reporting it.

i would have argued that we didn't come out ( of 'the recession' ) we were just lulled by media , politicians , and dubious government statistics that to light at the end of the tunnel was real

 

[over9k]

So I'll argue that it's workers funded by taxpayers, regardless how technicalities of how they're employed, that's the most relevant measure.

This is actually counted in the statistics as "businesses dependent on government contracts" or words very similiar.

It takes a bit of digging but you can find it.

 

[divs4ever]

Noticed same for the cheapest/on sale items ..as i look for them

I have always been a cheap bastard...
Did a big shopping yesterday and i had one thought leaving Coles:
Hardly anything below $5
Per kg, per item..only "on sale items"
Just getting old maybe....

too old , and worse still , have your memory intact and working

regarding ' cheap b@stard ' i prefer frugal .. ( less keystrokes ! )