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Speculative Stock Portfolio

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Missed my TYR entry a week ago and still regretting it. Well done !!!
 
qldfrog said:
Missed my TYR entry a week ago and still regretting it. Well done !!!
Click to expand...
I know you have a systematic trading approach. TYR is pulling back along with just about everything else in the market at the moment, so keep an eye out to see if there is another entry once the pull back is done and there is potentially another rally...

Anyway guys, as I was saying market is tumbling across the board and I can't really see trading opportunities to populate this spec portfolio. However I can look for any stocks that I am happy to buy and hold for the long term...

I have traded this big dog in the past in this portfolio selling out for the next puppy, but I am going to hold some shares in the long term so tied him up in the kennel, details in the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio.
 
That attempt was discretionary ?
 
As you guys know Tyro Payments Ltd (TYR) has received a Take Over bid. That will put a ceiling on the share price for the time being unless a superior bid comes along. The Private Equity firm may even nudge a few shareholders to let go of their shares but according to directors the company will stay intact and listed on the asx...


caption from article...

time will tell... Will be keeping an eye as I still have part of the position bought for this portfolio in TYR.

Silver price has declined quite a bit and showing signs of recovery in the last few days. Bought a junior Lead/Silver stock for this portfolio Boab Metals Ltd (BML)., below is a quick glance at the company:



Also, a short-term trade was made on Service Stream Limited (SSM), see below for technical reasoning...



With short-term setups, I usually don't get to do in-depth company analysis. Share price has had a massive decline since the start of Covid and unlike a lot of the other companies, share price hasn't recovered in a V shape, in fact languishing at the lows. However, this year's revenues have gone beast mode after declining last year:



Purchases:

SSM was bought on the go in another account with a mobile app, while driving in between jobs. I promise that I stopped on a service lane to execute the order, putting no fellow Aussies at risk.



Open Portfolio:
 
TYR has received an offer, that they've rejected. This sort of offer won't cap the price, if anything the price may go higher (as it's started to) as the market anticipates that a higher offer will have to be made.
 
Portfolio liquidated except for partial position in TYR that is under a takeover offer.




Closed Positions:


We shall employ a similar approach when we re-populate the portfolio once the trading conditions become favourable again.

In other words, we shall look into taking some partial profits if there is a good price appreciation on a stock. Having some profits locked-in, the remaining position can be given a lot more wiggle room in an attempt to catch a few longer-term winners.
 
The intention of the portfolio is to latch onto longer term trends to hitch a ride. But at the moment it's not happening, and it's been lucky that some trades exited with a profit due to bear market rallies this year.

Today exited another losing trade closing LPM position. It was moving up for a few days... then WHAK !



Closed Trades:
 
Last edited:
KevinBB said:
What lookback period do you use for your "longer term trends"? Maybe its a bit too short?

Chart of LPM, daily bars, 6 months. Source NABTrade.
View attachment 148214

KH
Click to expand...
This is a trading portfolio, so not trying to stay in for the the long term, if the trend reverses, as per chart above.

In a bull market environment, there is higher probability of trades working out and trends going higher. Also, the reason for very few trades being placed in this portfolio at the moment is due to not having a clear bullish market environment.
 
Not much to do at the moment because the cash is likely to get chopped up in the volatility if deployed in the current environment. But doing a fair bit of company research and looking at a few charts time to time.

I might go on a little rant as there is not much trading at the moment if that's ok...

We sometimes forget how lucky it is to be alive. It's only the last two to three years we lost so many lives ( both reported (Covid death tally) and unreported (pressures of life and restrictions) ).

I know of quite a few people personally who were lost due to Covid due partial involvement in the Aged care industry via work. Something that people don't talk about or get reported are those who couldn't bear it during the gloom and committed the unthinkable due to loss of business and livelihood. Aware of a few in the community via word-of-moth etc and personally know one business owner who nearly did, but was hanging by a thread and made it with lots of counselling etc. Gland to report he is rebuilding his life. Few others lost their business as well that I know of via work.

Things may get touch again with a possibly looming recession with interest rate hikes and global geopolitical problems. But I believe we will come out well on the other side, it's these tough times when having an investment community can be really helpful. If you are doing well, it's time to pay it forward... I am not talking about more charity and welfare (see image below).

While current projects are continuing, I am going to work on projects to bring those little things that can help the community here and the community in general. Hoping specially to help and transform those well below the poverty line or struggling to make ends meet, those with gambling problems or even on welfare. Unless someone ended up with a windfall, every investing and wealth-building journey starts small.

Apologies in advance for a dire warning: I believe the safety nets are going to be reduced going forward. Hint: Read the budget that was released a few days back, a lot of tightening and barely any freebies thrown out like in the past.

We'll need to learn how to fish:



Stay tuned... and most importantly stay alive
 
Sold 1/2 of A2M since it's had a good rally of late.



In case members missed it, A2M also announced FDA approval to supply infant formula in the US recently, which was posted in the A2M thread by @bigdog :



Closed Positions:


The closed position BML has made good progress since and is getting ready to mine Ag/Pb having awarded mining contractor recently. So, our research was good I suppose, however being a trading portfolio, we got kicked out during price weakness !
 
I have been looking into expanding into US stocks i.e. to look for the opportunities beyond the Aussie pond of stocks into the vast ocean. The current market downturn is offering quality US companies at steep discounts. e.g. Facebook is down 67% over a year:



and Amazon is nearly half price:



Spent a lot of hours looking for an easy platform that I can use for buying and selling US shares while residing in Australia.

Decided to open a Superhero account to invest in US shares. They offer no commission US shares and $5/trade on Aussie shares. Easy transfer of AUD into the account which can be converted to USD for purchasing US stocks within the platform.

At the moment there is a promotion to get free Tesla shares with Superhero trading but requires a "Refer a friend" link...


I couldn't find one in this forum or HC, but further searching led me to find one in Quora:

Which is the best share trading platform in Australia in terms of minimum brokerage fees and good service?

Answer (1 of 2): I have been looking for a good stock trading platform to invest both in the Aussie stocks as well as in the US markets, but the choices have been limited. You could either get a good asx broker, but didn’t offer US stocks such as Apple, Google, Microsoft or Tesla until now. I ca...
www.quora.com

At this stage, investing in Quality US companies with a long-term outlook. Not sure if I will have the time to trade US stocks as my workload is high at the moment. Other ASF members may have more time with taking the lead...
 
Having a little time off in the next few days to enjoy the festive season and to spend time with family and friends and it will be a great time to reflect on what a year it's been.

It's been a tough year in terms of trading and there weren't any break-away stocks that went on to multi-bag. However, there were a couple of stocks that had a run for some gains such as ARR and TYR. Hopefully the remaining position in A2M continues to do well into 2023 ?

One aspect that I am happy about when looking back at the year is taking only the highest conviction candidates in terms of stock research and setups. Hence there were very few trades that were taken preventing overtrading, which turned out to be good thing in this turbulent year than just putting on trades on any old setup for the sake of losing money. This has resulted in capital preservation which will be deployed in better trading environment in the future...

We often forget to treat ourselves in years of poor or negligible returns such as this year and splurge on those with good stock market returns. I decided to treat myself to a nice casket of wines for exercising discipline in trading this year... ?

Wishing everyone a Joyful Christmas ???
 
Looks like we are off to a flying start in 2023. Just look at the performance of ASF tipsters in the January 2023 Stock Competition Entries! with 69% of tips in the green and a large number of contestants with double-digit gains which is a remarkable for a month's performance.

I also posted a few breakouts that I saw in the Outstanding Breakout Alerts! thread recently. In terms of this portfolio, I have done a lot of research but just haven't hit that sweet-spot with any of the candidates that I looked at during the month till now. Today's candidate demonstrates the early stages of an uptrend and my research backs up the company fundamentals. Here is a quick summary...

GWA Group Ltd (GWA) is an Australian manufacturer and distributor of bathroom, kitchen and laundry products. The company operates through its subsidiaries and provides solutions for residential and commercial projects. The company has a strong market presence in Australia and New Zealand and has a history of revenue growth and profitability. The company is reasonably valued currently and offers a compelling fully franked dividend yield:



Management is not asleep at the wheel either. They were prudent to cut the dividend during that 2019 sickness uncertainty, but now that has thankfully passed, they have been increasing dividends again:



Although this is a short to medium term trading portfolio, the company is coming off a strongly supported base going back a decade, for those long-term chartists:



Purchase of GWA shares for this portfolio...



Open Positions:
 
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