Resisting Climate Hysteria

[wayneL]

Diminishing in number? I don't think so orr.

Just not indulging in the futility of argueing with political activists.

 

[Junior]

I would hardly call this "limited downside". Businesses will close, jobs will be lost, many will face economic hardship.

All it takes is careful planning, an open mind and a long term view. Instead of fear-mongering and demanding the construction of more coal-fired plants when there are so many alternatives which are rapidly becoming more cost-effective.

 

[Bintang]

Man-made global warming surging ahead – will not be long before we are all toast.

Melbourne weather: City shivers through chilliest morning in two years
Melburnians have shivered their way through the coldest morning in two years as temperatures dipped to just 1.1℃ in the city on Saturday.
The morning is the coldest since 2015, when a low of just 0.6℃ was recorded on July 19.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/m...est-morning-in-two-years-20170630-gx2ivo.html

Weekend snap-freeze: Cold spell slashes temperature records across Australia
Temperature records have fallen as many Australians woke to freezing weather this morning.
http://www.9news.com.au/wild-weather/2017/07/02/10/30/weekend-cold-weather-records-australia

 

[Knobby22]

Man-made global warming surging ahead – will not be long before we are all toast.

Melbourne weather: City shivers through chilliest morning in two years
Melburnians have shivered their way through the coldest morning in two years as temperatures dipped to just 1.1℃ in the city on Saturday.
The morning is the coldest since 2015, when a low of just 0.6℃ was recorded on July 19.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/m...est-morning-in-two-years-20170630-gx2ivo.html

Weekend snap-freeze: Cold spell slashes temperature records across Australia
Temperature records have fallen as many Australians woke to freezing weather this morning.
http://www.9news.com.au/wild-weather/2017/07/02/10/30/weekend-cold-weather-records-australia

Coldest since 2008 in Goulburn . Wow!
Um, does that count as a record? What about all the heat records broken throughout Australia since measurements began over the last two years?

 

[basilio]

Speaking of temperature records has anyone cast an eye on what has happened in Europe this summer.?

Europe's extreme June heat clearly linked to climate change, research shows
Heatwaves that saw deadly forest fires in Portugal and soaring temperatures in England were made up to 10 times more likely by global warming, say scientists



Firefighters try to extinguish a forest wildfire in Colmeal in central Portugal on 21 June. Photograph: Francisco Leong/AFP/Getty Images
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Damian Carrington Environment editor


Friday 30 June 2017 23.06 AEST Last modified on Friday 30 June 2017 23.07 AEST

Human-caused climate change dramatically increased the likelihood of the extreme heatwave that saw deadly forest fires blazing in Portugal and Spain, new research has shown.

Much of western Europe sweltered earlier in June, and the severe heat in England, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland was also made significantly more likely by global warming. Such temperatures will become the norm by 2050, the scientists warned, unless action is taken to rapidly cut carbon emissions.

Scientists combined temperature records and the latest observations with a series of sophisticated computer models to calculate how much the global rise in greenhouse gases has raised the odds of the soaring temperatures.

They found the heatwave that struck Portugal and Spain was 10 times more likely to have occurred due to global warming. In Portugal, 64 people died in huge forest fires, while in Spain 1,500 people were forced to evacuate by forest blazes.

The intense heat was made four times more probable in central England, which endured its hottest day since 1976, and in France, the Netherlands and Switzerland, where emergency heatwave plans were triggered.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...early-linked-to-climate-change-research-shows

 

[basilio]

On a similar note scientists are now concerned that attempting to abate global warming by channelling excess CO2 into the soil is not as promising as they originally hoped.

Soil carbon storage not the climate change fix it was thought, research finds
Soil’s potential to soak up planet-warning carbon dioxide has been overestimated by as much as 40%, say scientists



Scientists have found that a large amount of the greenhouse gas that it was previously thought could be stored in the soil will actually stay in the atmosphere. Photograph: Bullit Marquez/AP



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Oliver Milman


Friday 23 September 2016 04.00 AEST Last modified on Thursday 23 February 2017 04.44 AEDT

Hopes that large amounts of planet-warming carbon dioxide could be buried in soils appear to be grossly misplaced, with new research finding that the ground will soak up far less carbon over the coming century than previously thought.

Radiocarbon dating of soils, when combined with previous models of carbon uptake, has shown the widely assumed potential for carbon sequestration to combat climate change has been overestimated by as much as 40%.

Scientists from the University of California, Irvine (UCI) found that models used by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assume a much faster cycling of carbon through soils than is actually the case. Data taken from 157 soil samples taken from around the world show the average age of soil carbon is more than six times older than previously thought.

This means it will take hundreds or even thousands of years for soils to soak up large amounts of the extra CO2 pumped into the atmosphere by human activity – far too long to be relied upon as a way to help the world avoid dangerous global warming this century.

“A substantial amount of the greenhouse gas that we thought was being taken up and stored in the soil is actually going to stay in the atmosphere,” said study co-author Steven Allison, UCI associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and Earth system science.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...mate-change-fix-it-was-thought-research-finds

 

[Bintang]

How long will the naked emperor be able to tolerate a freezing butt?
Dozens killed by Europe's coldest weather in years
Jan. 10, 2017
https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/01/10/bitter-cold-kills-dozens-europe/96404042/
Millions of Europeans continued to shiver Tuesday as dangerous cold and bouts of heavy snow hammered the region. At least 61 people have died over the past week as a result of the coldest weather in years.
Deadly cold wave continues to sweep across Europe
A cold wave across Europe has left at least 23 dead in the past two days, including several migrants and homeless people, authorities said Saturday
Russia meanwhile celebrated the coldest Orthodox Christmas in 120 years, and even Istanbul was covered with a blanket of snow.
http://www.france24.com/en/20170107-europe-weather-cold-deaths-across-deep-freeze-continues

 

[macca]

The area of Portugal that burned has a lot of gum tree plantations, as we are very aware, gum trees need to be hazard reduced every second or third year or you will get a holocaust when the conditions are right.

We have learned this the hard way, so has Portugal

 

[Bintang]

The area of Portugal that burned has a lot of gum tree plantations, as we are very aware, gum trees need to be hazard reduced every second or third year or you will get a holocaust when the conditions are right.

The trouble is, thanks to man-made global warming, it was so cold during the previous months that nobody wanted to freeze their butts off in the plantations while doing the hazard reduction.
The Portugal News
March 2016, coldest since the mid-1980s
April 2016
The average minimum temperature registered last month was the lowest in 32 years, according to the national Met office, and the sixth coldest since 1931.

 

[Bintang]

Here is the most recently available global temperature anomaly update for June 2017, i.e. +0.21 deg C, which is back to 1997 levels and implies zero global warming for the last 20 years. This satellite temperature data just cannot be correct. It's clearly time for another 'hockey stick' adjustment to the data to make it agree with the 97% of scientists who all agree that humans are causing global warming.

 

[Tisme]

Here is the most recently available global temperature anomaly update for June 2017, i.e. +0.21 deg C, which is back to 1997 levels and implies zero global warming for the last 20 years. This satellite temperature data just cannot be correct. It's clearly time for another 'hockey stick' adjustment to the data to make it agree with the 97% of scientists who all agree that humans are causing global warming.
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You'd have to explain that a little more for me.

I know it's a give you are arguing some kind of conspiracy, but I'm affected at the pointy end in one of my businesses by rising enthalpy and degree days, man made or not.

Also seeing a persistent, but incipient rise in recorded ppm VOC gases from our air quality sensors and a curious corresponding increase in vociferous arguments against climate change, presumably caused by blood poisoning from polluted air.

 

[basilio]

Bintang what you you might choose to do is extend your observations of global temperatures to take in the entire global land and sea based temperature records.

These are the ones that measure the temperature on earth. The temperature that affects all our ecosystems, ice melt in the poles, heat levels in the oceans.

After that you can examine the number of adjustments that have been made to these satellite based temperature readings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/decadaltemp.php

 

[Bintang]

You'd have to explain that a little more for me. I know it's a give you are arguing some kind of conspiracy, but I'm affected at the pointy end in one of my businesses by rising enthalpy and degree days, man made or not.

I have simply showed the most recent data obtained from satellite observations, which is not consistent with temperature projections made by ICPP global warming models. You can draw your own conclusions as to whether the data is wrong or the models are wrong.

Bintang what you might choose to do is extend your observations of global temperatures to take in the entire global land and sea based temperature records. These are the ones that measure the temperature on earth.

Michael Mann (of 'hockey stick fame') et al discuss the aspects of satellite versus surface temperature measurements in this recent paper:
Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates
Benjamin D. Santer, Michael E. Mann et al, 19June 2017
https://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v10/n7/full/ngeo2973.html

"Our focus is on satellite- and model-based estimates of tropospheric temperature. There are two reasons for this choice. First, satellite tropospheric temperature measurements have time invariant, near-global coverage. In contrast, there are large, non-random temporal changes in spatial coverage in the observed surface temperature data sets.
If the reduction in early twenty-first century warming is mainly an artifact of errors in surface temperature data independent, satellite-based measurements of tropospheric temperature should show little evidence of a recent `slowdown in warming consistent with corrected surface results. Current satellite data sets, however, provide support for a reduced rate of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century."

 

[Tisme]

I have simply showed the most recent data obtained from satellite observations,

Well no, you are transparently predicating an argument based on your own bias. My curiosity is why it is so important to people, including yourself to have a bias either way and argue the point? It's not like it's important like, say Collingwood versus Sydney.

My observations on the otherhand are impirically evidenced and merely used to base compensations accordingly.

 

[Bintang]

Like I said. Draw your own conclusions.

 

[basilio]

"I have simply showed the most recent data obtained from satellite observations, which is not consistent with temperature projections made by ICPP global warming models." Bintang

Let's be quite clear here. The current world wide actual temperatures as measured by thousands of stations around the world show average temperatures at record levels. This is not models or theories. These are facts on the ground. The physical consequences of these temperature extremes are seen in record ice melts in the Arctic and Antarctic, bleaching coral reefs around the world as ocean temperatures soar, unheralded forest fires in Canada and other far north localities and scores of other heat related phenomenon.

If there is an argument about satellite observations of temperatures not replicating these figures it just brings into question the methodology of these constructs. Are you aware that there have been 11 adjustments made to UAH figures since 1991 ? These simply reflect the range of technical issues that have caused irregularities in the recorded temperatures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset

For more detailed information on current and recent global temperatures check out NOAA Global Climate Report for April 2017
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201704

 

[Bintang]

The physical consequences of these temperature extremes are seen in record ice melts in the Arctic and Antarctic, bleaching coral reefs around the world as ocean temperatures soar, unheralded forest fires in Canada and other far north localities and scores of other heat related phenomenon.

where is the evidence of record ice melts?

 

[basilio]

March 23, 2017
Sea Ice Extent Sinks to Record Lows at Both Poles
Arctic sea ice appears to have reached on March 7 a record low wintertime maximum extent, according to scientists at NASA and the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado. And on the opposite side of the planet, on March 3 sea ice around Antarctica hit its lowest extent ever recorded by satellites at the end of summer in the Southern Hemisphere, a surprising turn of events after decades of moderate sea ice expansion.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/sea-ice-extent-sinks-to-record-lows-at-both-poles

 

[wayneL]

I wonder if there is an organisation... Peesimists Anonymous?

 

[wayneL]

Adjustments****

https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/ef-gast-data-research-report-062717.pdf

VII. SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS In this research report, the most important surface data adjustment issues are identified and past changes in the previously reported historical GAST data are quantified. While the notion that some “adjustments” to historical data might need to be made is not challenged, logically it would be expected that such historical temperature data adjustments would sometimes raise these temperatures, and sometimes lower them. This situation would mean that the impact of such adjustments on the temperature trend line slope is uncertain. However, each new version of GAST has nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history. That was accomplished by systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern. This was true for all three entities providing GAST data measurement, NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU. As a result, this research sought to validate the current estimates of GAST using the best available relevant data. This included the best documented and understood data sets from the U.S. and elsewhere as well as global data from satellites that provide far more extensive global coverage and are not contaminated by bad siting and urbanization impacts. Satellite data integrity also benefits from having cross checks between UAH and RSS as well as with Balloon data. The conclusive findings of this research are that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever –despite current claims of record setting warming. Finally, since GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these research findings.