qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

Not surprisingly: A sea of red today;
1) The dog of 2024 a real disaster losing 6% this week:
out of the 10 parcels since first week of january: NHF so far up20.5 and EDV up 6.4% are the only green bits;
Horrendous VEA at -34.4%, MIN at -31.5% ILU at -18.4% and the rest not that much better

I doubt this will ever recover and if this is statistically reflecting the market index by the end of the year, that is a gloomy view of the index future...

 

[qldfrog]

The RRG system behaved as good as possible this week, with a weekly loss of -0.96% , better than the XJT which lost 1.3%
We have 3 winners vs 7 losers in the system

but the other market components of the SMSF not so good.....
The SMSF being still 61% cash, it is bearable resulting in a loss of 0.6% this week

 

[qldfrog]

Before Alfred cut the comms:
RRG system beaten again, there was no buy/sell on Monday and we end the week down 1.45%
Much better than XJT but down nevertheless.

luckily, the overall super went up a bit, still 56% cash and up 0.22% this week:

So good week overall there

 

[qldfrog]

For the dogs of 2024, this is a very different matter, lost another $3.6k this week or 7.4%;
It is a complete disaster.

Where the hell are these stats where that portfolio is supposed to match the index..
The index is not down 19.4% in the last 2 months, but the dogs are.So what will happen if real **** hits the wall
Out of the 10 stocks, since 8/01/2025, only one is positive: NHF at +15%, all others are down, EDV and FMG down single digit, but VEA/MIN have lost 40% plus and 5 other stocks down 22% or more
I started this experiment swearing to stick with these till mid december 25 but this is eating all my trading profit elsewhere
Should I can the lot and play paper?
Or half the position?
Is anyone remotely interested in this experience?
Or am I just losing good money after good money for no benefit.(-$9.7k so far)
If I cut loses now/before July , I can offset these against capital gains and have the tax man share some of the costs.
I can handle DD on my system as I am responsible, have expected SL mechanism, performed Backtest etc, but i just trust a paper article on that one, was probably foolish to start

 

[rcw1]

For the dogs of 2024, this is a very different matter, lost another $3.6k this week or 7.4%;
It is a complete disaster.
View attachment 194870
Where the hell are these stats where that portfolio is supposed to match the index..
The index is not down 19.4% in the last 2 months, but the dogs are.So what will happen if real **** hits the wall
Out of the 10 stocks, since 8/01/2025, only one is positive: NHF at +15%, all others are down, EDV and FMG down single digit, but VEA/MIN have lost 40% plus and 5 other stocks down 22% or more
I started this experiment swearing to stick with these till mid december 25 but this is eating all my trading profit elsewhere
Should I can the lot and play paper?
Or half the position?
Is anyone remotely interested in this experience?
Or am I just losing good money after good money for no benefit.(-$9.7k so far)
If I cut loses now/before July , I can offset these against capital gains and have the tax man share some of the costs.
I can handle DD on my system as I am responsible, have expected SL mechanism, performed Backtest etc, but i just trust a paper article on that one, was probably foolish to start

Good evening @qldfrog

Are these the ten stocks, in no particular order, bundled into dogs of 2024?
MIN, ILU IGO PLS VEA NHF, FMG, EDV, IEL and XJT

What was the scoped timing for entry and exit accumulative for all ten?
Was the cost $5k per stock?

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Dona Ferentes]

oh man, as an academic exercise, it's not pretty but, with real money, what misery!!

 

[qldfrog]

Good evening @qldfrog

Are these the ten stocks, in no particular order, bundled into dogs of 2024?
MIN, ILU IGO PLS VEA NHF, FMG, EDV, IEL and XJT

What was the scoped timing for entry and exit accumulative for all ten?
Was the cost $5k per stock?

Kind regards
rcw1

Yes indeed, all bought on 8/01
10 packets of $5k...slight difference based on buy order and open price but roughly.
Entry was start of year, exit mid December 2025

 

[rcw1]

oh man, as an academic exercise, it's not pretty but, with real money, what misery!!

Good evening @Dona Ferentes
EDIT: add @qldfrog
most just ex-dividend ... probably incorrect time to make a decision on pulling the rug, reckon. Exception being IGO and PLS ... bottom ongoing weakness in global lithium markets. Bargin buys or .... bargin buys just the the day

But hey, roll the dice and play...

Kind regards
rcw

 

[qldfrog]

oh man, as an academic exercise, it's not pretty but, with real money, what misery!!

Indeed

 

[qldfrog]

Good evening @Dona Ferentes

most just ex-dividend ... probably incorrect time to make a decision on pulling the rug, reckon. Exception being IGO and PLS ... bottom ongoing weakness in global lithium markets. Bargin buys or .... bargin buys just the the day

But hey, roll the dice and play...

Kind regards
rcw

Yes, i noticed that but with 7 out of 10 at more than -22% or even -40% loss, a dividend franked or not of 5% does not change much.

 

[qldfrog]

Good evening @Dona Ferentes
EDIT: add @qldfrog
most just ex-dividend ... probably incorrect time to make a decision on pulling the rug, reckon. Exception being IGO and PLS ... bottom ongoing weakness in global lithium markets. Bargin buys or .... bargin buys just the the day

But hey, roll the dice and play...

Kind regards
rcw

If i was pulling the plug, it would be vea and min first..
22%, can recover at least partly, but 40% loss in a relatively flat market, you do not recover in the next months
On the other end, 40% is well past my SL trigger... so far too late
I could reduce the portfolio by half or even more, take the losses and carry on with a reduce portfolio size, keeping the experiment alive

 

[rcw1]

If i was pulling the plug, it would be vea and min first..
22%, can recover at least partly, but 40% loss in a relatively flat market, you do not recover in the next months
On the other end, 40% is well past my SL trigger... so far too late
I could reduce the portfolio by half or even more, take the losses and carry on with a reduce portfolio size, keeping the experiment alive

December 2025 is months away. Do you feel that your selects will overall do much more poorly than at this point in time?

 

[rcw1]

December 2025 is months away. Do you feel that your selects will overall do much more poorly than at this point in time?

sure the 40 percenters difficult to claw back... will they retrace further throughout the year ?

 

[qldfrog]

December 2025 is months away. Do you feel that your selects will overall do much more poorly than at this point in time?

Min could be bankrupt

 

[qldfrog]

sure the 40 percenters difficult to claw back... will they retrace further throughout the year ?

I feel like buying vea so why should i sell it in that portfolio indeed?

 

[Country Lad]

@qldfrog you ask a few questions which I am happy to answer in case that helps solve your dilemma.

A few quick calculations to put it in context. By my quick counting on fingers, you are down around $10,000 or around 19%. That means the portfolio needs to increase in value by nearly 25% to break even. Both MIN and VEA need to increase by about 67% to break even. So it is a long road back in this market.

You asked:

Q1 Is anyone remotely interested in this experience?

Yes, It is interesting to me but is it worth risking more than a few thousand dollars to satisfy my curiosity? You could just pick the shares, noting the details in the diary and tell me the result at the end of the year.

Q2 Should I can the lot and play paper?

I would, not so much because I would possibly make a loss but more so that I would have no control over the risk, no ability to set and execute a stop to bail and all the other controls normally in place when trading. This is not a trade and that concerns me and would keep me uncomfortable.

Q3 (I think it is a question) If I cut loses now/before July , I can offset these against capital gains and have the tax man share some of the costs.

This sounds like a plan. The question to answer is if you are thinking of keeping them (or some of them) are there not better prospects in the market to make a profit?

 

[qldfrog]

@qldfrog you ask a few questions which I am happy to answer in case that helps solve your dilemma.

A few quick calculations to put it in context. By my quick counting on fingers, you are down around $10,000 or around 19%. That means the portfolio needs to increase in value by nearly 25% to break even. Both MIN and VEA need to increase by about 67% to break even. So it is a long road back in this market.

You asked:

Q1 Is anyone remotely interested in this experience?

Yes, It is interesting to me but is it worth risking more than a few thousand dollars to satisfy my curiosity? You could just pick the shares, noting the details in the diary and tell me the result at the end of the year.

Q2 Should I can the lot and play paper?

I would, not so much because I would possibly make a loss but more so that I would have no control over the risk, no ability to set and execute a stop to bail and all the other controls normally in place when trading. This is not a trade and that concerns me and would keep me uncomfortable.

Q3 (I think it is a question) If I cut loses now/before July , I can offset these against capital gains and have the tax man share some of the costs.

This sounds like a plan. The question to answer is if you are thinking of keeping them (or some of them) are there not better prospects in the market to make a profit?

That's a nice summary and your points are all exact:
When i play high risk, i expect high return ..i do this with a limited amount in money lenders.
All my other share play have some plan or actual SL, the dogs have none, no exit whatsover
Even when not winning, i am at least beating the xjt, these dogs losses are order of magnitude worse even with a small size and is a drain
I initially put some real money there to force myself to invest vs my pessimistic nature thinking:
well if statistically, it matches the index, let's do that instead of a Vanguard ETF
Dumb ass..
We see the results....
I will try to exit wisely from Monday ..famous last words
And will carry on the experience on paper only.
I have a second systemic system developed, will use the remaining dogs funds for it and will start it next month or so..if it wants to start as it has had no buy lately..
The live RRG system has its first buy and sell on Monday: one parcel swap.

 

[divs4ever]

@qldfrog you ask a few questions which I am happy to answer in case that helps solve your dilemma.

A few quick calculations to put it in context. By my quick counting on fingers, you are down around $10,000 or around 19%. That means the portfolio needs to increase in value by nearly 25% to break even. Both MIN and VEA need to increase by about 67% to break even. So it is a long road back in this market.

You asked:

Q1 Is anyone remotely interested in this experience?

Yes, It is interesting to me but is it worth risking more than a few thousand dollars to satisfy my curiosity? You could just pick the shares, noting the details in the diary and tell me the result at the end of the year.

Q2 Should I can the lot and play paper?

I would, not so much because I would possibly make a loss but more so that I would have no control over the risk, no ability to set and execute a stop to bail and all the other controls normally in place when trading. This is not a trade and that concerns me and would keep me uncomfortable.

Q3 (I think it is a question) If I cut loses now/before July , I can offset these against capital gains and have the tax man share some of the costs.

This sounds like a plan. The question to answer is if you are thinking of keeping them (or some of them) are there not better prospects in the market to make a profit?

when faced with similar ( sliding ) stocks when starting out , but i was planning to keep my buys 'forever ' ( or until it was obvious it was time to leave )

FIRST i decided which stocks i would increase the holding ( BSL was an outright winner ) OST/ARI wasn't ALTHOUGH i was selling into the bigger rallies so the damage wasn't as bad as it might have been

secondly i didn't limit it to a specific time period a 40% ( with the prospect of a deeper dip still to come ) drop hints at least 3 years to recover ( if it does at all )

now while i didn't deliberately sell to accumulate/crystallize tax-losses , i DID sell lost causes ( some management just crumbles under pressure )

 

[qldfrog]

when faced with similar ( sliding ) stocks when starting out , but i was planning to keep my buys 'forever ' ( or until it was obvious it was time to leave )

FIRST i decided which stocks i would increase the holding ( BSL was an outright winner ) OST/ARI wasn't ALTHOUGH i was selling into the bigger rallies so the damage wasn't as bad as it might have been

secondly i didn't limit it to a specific time period a 40% ( with the prospect of a deeper dip still to come ) drop hints at least 3 years to recover ( if it does at all )

now while i didn't deliberately sell to accumulate/crystallize tax-losses , i DID sell lost causes ( some management just crumbles under pressure )

This was not a long term or trading investment, more an experiment so the issue, more specifically the absence of exit strategy but for the 15/12/2025 deadline

 

[qldfrog]

RRG system: a swap today:
bought 30500AVG @ 16c, sold 1492 TRS at $3.3 for a loss on TRS of $94.6 or 1.89%
will provide status on Dogs of 2024 liquidation asap