qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

Like many, the invested part of the portfolio suffered:
1) the good old 2024 dogs of the asx first;
luckily, virtual dollars now ...
The dogs lost nearly 9% this week:
now -26.5% from 1/08/25
out of the 10 stocks, 4 have lost 40+%, 3 are in the -30% NHF is up 23% and FMG only down15% while EDV lost a fair 5%
I sold out, a bit disappointed with a $9.5k loss, now we would be at -$13k

The RRG system did not fare very well either:
new entries MGX lost 6% and SYR had a bloodbath losing 26% in 2 weeks
But at least there is a methodology behind
The RRG system was down 4.6% this week and -13.5% since inception

I am quite happy not to have started my second system recently :
being mostly long but for a few ETFs, this would not have been a great start
Overall the whole of super benefited from its 41% cash exposure but still lost 2.5% on the week vs the XJT nearly 4%
We will get a better snapshot of the overall frog portfolio tomorrow after the US session tonight

 

[qldfrog]

Well overexposure cash and gold was not that bad, silver disappointing but hey
Not sure how this will reflect on the asx on monday but free fall in NY
Got two spy lot purchases (small packets,)
One at 522..then one at 506 the next ladder entry one waiting at 475...

Will have a busy weekend looking at what to purchase and at what price on monday, and where to set my sale prices i have a put to sell and some SL for the system

 

[Sean K]

Well overexposure cash and gold was not that bad, silver disappointing but hey
Not sure how this will reflect on the asx on monday but free fall in NY
Got two spy lot purchases (small packets,)
One at 522..then one at 506 the next ladder entry one waiting at 475...

Will have a busy weekend looking at what to purchase and at what price on monday, and where to set my sale prices i have a put to sell and some SL for the system

Great opportunity coming up. Just a matter of how long this lasts. Covid crash took four weeks to settle and then took 3-4 months to regain the losses. Obviously a different situation and could drag out longer, or Trump could change his mind next week, cancel the tarifs, and it springs back in a couple of days...

 

[qldfrog]

For the entire assets, much better than feared, a fall of 0.3% so still much higher than a fortnight go, and that is after $3.5k of health insurance
Moving money into the trading account for Monday:
RRG is selling 2 packets and buying 2 more
Now a bit of math to put things in perspective vs the big covid scare:

What is the 2025 equivalent of the Covid low for the XAO?
XAO fell down to a low 4564 on the 23rd of march 2020
Officially, Australian CPI was at 116 in the march quarter of 2020 and is currently a bit above 140 which we can round up to a 22% increase in the 5 last year
So in term of value, the covid lows matches a XAO of roughly 5570 in 2025
IMHO, a 20% of inflation in the last 5 years is a bit of fake manipulation , and Covid was not a disaster crash, so a very sensible target for a similar fall would be XAO in the high 5000/low 6000;

For a few familiar stocks which have not structurally changed much in the last 5 years (BHP has sold too much)
company ,low 2020 ,rough 2025 equivalent after a inflation based 22% increase
CBA 54,->66
RIO 75->92
MQG 72->88
VAS 58.5->71.5
etc
Plenty of room to go potentially if there is an actual reset

 

[qldfrog]

Before what could be an epic day, 2 posts
One on shingle as my better half got this..so not very investors focus..and not in this thread
But a more relevant one for the TDS who are still sadly raving on iceberg tariffs and other BS
This is not new but a must watch

There is a 5 minute abridged version also.
We are in a changing world and doing nothing and die back dying is not an option for the west, unless you want to occupy wall street and save iceberg from tariffs as a priority .
Usually because we are guilty of all evils, and anyone else is an angel as long as they are non rich non white non Christian non male non heterosexual non homnivorous

 

[qldfrog]

Henry Kissinger’s view “the United States doesn’t have permanent allies or enemies. It has self-interest,”
Nothing new... Good on american leaders who follow that.
And God i wish France had that focus, ...and since moving here, Australia too

 

[qldfrog]

what a day, and interesting night ahead.
I will not be active as I am picking family at airport tomorrow so will be on the road at 4AM, and off line for most of the day
Bell direct was behaving well:
The RRG system sold SYR and DTL; and invested into IXI and TCL;
As probably most of you, I lost a fair amount today;
But did extra entry for the super fund at what is cheap price vs the last years
I even entered a small packet in both BHP and FMG, for trade if there is a rebound
But % wise, a very moderate 1% loss thanks to low exposure;
The cash/pm/stock ratios are basically unchanged

 

[qldfrog]

ohh and I sold my last shorts on CBA small amounts overall but great % win after costs: +50% and plus 67% in a 7 days

 

[qldfrog]

last comment: I purchased 15 packets today, 13 are in the green at the end of the session..will see in a week

 

[qldfrog]

Sold GEAR for a nice profit, off loaded FMG nice few restaurants ahead
Should I sell BHP today...

 

[qldfrog]

Sold GEAR for a nice profit, off loaded FMG nice few restaurants ahead
Should I sell BHP today...

Bhp sold

 

[Sean K]

It's your shout frog

 

[qldfrog]

impressive..10k above my previous ATH for the whole assets, AND that includes my better half spending $1k on the dentist's Maserati with customized number plate MyCrowns
--just kidding with the plate...
This week end results will be interesting

 

[farmerge]

impressive..10k above my previous ATH for the whole assets, AND that includes my better half spending $1k on the dentist's Maserati with customized number plate MyCrowns
--just kidding with the plate...
This week end results will be interesting

@qldfrog the plate is a ripper, surprised not to have seen it around the teeth pullers before.

 

[qldfrog]

Will have to wait the end of tonight's trade to get the full week but so far:
The dogs of the ASX 2024 would have lost another 1.4% down ,on paper only , to -27.9% from the January start ;
nearly $14k loss out of $50k in.
Exit a month ago at -$9k after dividends looking benign....
Let's pray the whole dogs of asx principle is wrong as they are supposed statistically to even or better the ASX over the year..
That is not a good crystal ball reading for the asx, crossing fingers, the crystal ball is cracked

 

[farmerge]

Will have to wait the end of tonight's trade to get the full week but so far:
The dogs of the ASX 2024 would have lost another 1.4% down ,on paper only , to -27.9% from the January start ;
nearly $14k loss out of $50k in.
Exit a month ago at -$9k after dividends looking benign....
Let's pray the whole dogs of asx principle is wrong as they are supposed statistically to even or better the ASX over the year..
That is not a good crystal ball reading for the asx, crossing fingers, the crystal ball is cracked

@qld cracked, broken or opaque

 

[qldfrog]

The frog super:
The RRG system made a small gain:
$400 or 0.9% this week but still losing to xjt overall:

The whole of super went stellar up 10% , and unless I did a mistake up 7.3% since mid/end February

Cash down to 42%, plenty of buy order but missed today as the fall was less than wished...Orders will lie in wait
Unless catastrophic night, I should smash my ATH ..let's celebrate,
and thank you POTUS Trump
The last line to enrage the people who had already wet dreams this week of the end of capitalism, nothing less!
and horny dreams of the arrival of judgment day via a burning planet and hordes of non white non christian invaders bringing justice to the oppressed
You will excuse my joyful mood

 

[qldfrog]

sounds nearly too good to be true so will double check;-)

 

[farmerge]

The frog super:
The RRG system made a small gain:
$400 or 0.9% this week but still losing to xjt overall:
View attachment 197332
The whole of super went stellar up 10% , and unless I did a mistake up 7.3% since mid/end February
View attachment 197334
Cash down to 42%, plenty of buy order but missed today as the fall was less than wished...Orders will lie in wait
Unless catastrophic night, I should smash my ATH ..let's celebrate,
and thank you POTUS Trump
The last line to enrage the people who had already wet dreams this week of the end of capitalism, nothing less!
and horny dreams of the arrival of judgment day via a burning planet and hordes of non white non christian invaders bringing justice to the oppressed
You will excuse my joyful mood

@qldfrog banishment to the stocks I say and plenty of rotten eggs and tomatoes pitched your way.

 

[qldfrog]

sounds nearly too good to be true so will double check;-)

was too good :-( mixed up in the excel reference and counted one asset class twice
Not 10% just less than 1% for the whole of super
Now 36.5% cash
but beating the XJT and still joyful with whole investment/portfolios
Corrected values for the super:

For the RRG system on Monday: no change

So far holding well for the whole of investment ATH tomorrow..Let's see how it goes