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qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

Discussion in 'Trading Diaries and Journals' started by qldfrog, Feb 25, 2019.

  1. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    system1 performed 2 buy actions this morning:
    ZIM 482@10.9 for a total of $5263.8
    FNP 923@ 5.79 for a total of $5354.17
    we are now 78% invested

    System2 more dynamic had 1 buy/sell as we have reached our max nb of position:
    sold 40000 AGY @ 0.08resulting in a loss of $1580 outch
    and bought
    83 DMP @$44.9 for a total of $ 3736.7
    here we reached another problem separating us from a backtest scenario;
    I could only buy DMP after selling AGY..so could not do both at the open, I had to be present at 10:15 to manually enter the buy order: in that case, it was positive as I bought DMP below the open price but can not expect this to be always in my favour
    have all a great week
     
    jjbinks, Newt and Skate like this.
  2. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    horrendous week:
    lost 15k or so on gold usd exposure, SEA collapse, bonds etc
    And for the systems:
    ###########################
    System I (the original)
    LOSS of $2280 this week

    WTF?
    Start 25/02/2019
    Total invested $ 100,000.00
    Cash remaining $16,363.44
    Current portfolio value $105,680.24
    Profit $5,680.24
    Nb of active positions 17
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 25/02 5.68%
    Annual return so far 10.47%
    purchase value per position 5486.696667
    Invested percentage 84%
    dividends $ 433.81
    Average per week: 202.8657143

    We are going opposite the XAOA which was going higher
    not a nice chart
    upload_2019-9-13_19-14-33.png
    2 trades planned on Monday
    ###########################
    system II
    static just $125 loss this week

    Start 5/08/2019
    Total invested $ 100,532.76
    Cash remaining $10.91
    Current portfolio value $98,066.59
    Profit -$2,484.91
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 5/08 -2.45%
    Annual return so far -23.56%

    upload_2019-9-13_19-16-6.png


    We are still losing to the XAOA on that time frame

    More very heavy actions on Monday
    Have all a great week end
     
  3. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    A few thoughts
    Neither system use stop losses
    But system 2 has a more dynamic behaviour and exit for example some gold stocks on monday that remains with system1
    The reason i have no stop loss in either is that backtests during several periods show they were more of a negative than a positive
    I just hope there was no mess up with the tests.
    @peter2 exited some of the stocks causing the fall this week.and as a human , i would have done the same
    Yet with oil situation, gold might rise again...
    I still want to point out that, due to personal reasons.. first open house of ppor,... this was one of the busiest week i have ever had,
    and a system allowed me to carry on stock trading whereas otherwise i would have been unable to practise rational clear thinking trading or investing.so no regret
     
    peter2, Skate, Padowan and 2 others like this.
  4. jjbinks

    jjbinks

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    Sorry to hear about the losses! One of the things about trading. Hopefully you are going OK!

    These really highlights one of the big benefits of a system (esp if it is weekly or monthly).

    It's also interesting to note that for system 1 you have gone from about 50% invested at start of august(after about 5 months of trading) to know being 84% invested. (investing 30% of portfolio in 1 month).
    Its been a volatile few weeks so no surprises that you taking some losses. Hopefully with time we'll see winners your system picks shine!
     
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  5. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    No win if no risk, so i am ok
    Most of the losses last week were following huge gain this year.part of life
     
    Skate, myrtie100 and jjbinks like this.
  6. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    @jjbinks thanks for the nice words.kind of you, but no worries i am quite ok
    Hope you are going well too
    Did you jump paper to real dollars?
     
    Newt likes this.
  7. Newt

    Newt

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    Yep, another turbulent week. I was just breaking new equity highs Mon, finished in a 6% DD by the end of the week. Happy to keep churning as required - can't be setting new highs all the time, and sideways better than down.
     
    qldfrog, CNHTractor and Skate like this.
  8. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    today system 2 swapped 2 parcel: 2 sells 2 buys
    And system1 added 2 parcels;
    ALK : 9016 @ 0.595
    and MSB 2522 @ 2.17
    we now have 19 out of 20 available packets invested
     
    sptrawler and Skate like this.
  9. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    good week:
    ###########################
    System I (the original)
    gain of $2340 this week

    Start 25/02/2019
    Total invested $ 100,000.00
    Cash remaining $5,506.18
    Current portfolio value $108,017.67
    Profit $8,017.67
    Nb of active positions 19
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 25/02 8.02%
    Annual return so far 14.28%
    purchase value per position 5602.83
    Invested percentage 95%
    dividends $515.77
    still loosing to index, catching up on getting fully invested
    upload_2019-9-20_18-34-31.png
    2 sells 3 buys on monday
    ###########################
    system II
    gain $727
    Start 5/08/2019
    Total invested $ 100,532.76
    Cash remaining $6.69
    Current portfolio value $98,793.80
    Profit -$1,467.39
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 5/08 -1.73%
    Annual return so far -14.03%
    purchase value per position #DIV/0!
    Invested percentage 100%
    dividends $ 97.21
    Average per week: -293.4774
    does not seem to be able to catch up with index, fully invested

    upload_2019-9-20_18-36-33.png


    We are still losing to the XAOA on that time frame
    no action on monday, plenty of buy signals but fully invested and no sell
    Have all a great week end
     
    IFocus, peter2, Saqeeb and 5 others like this.
  10. jjbinks

    jjbinks

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    Got into trading a asx system. (loosely based on all time highs/tech trader)
    Largely tracking along with the XAO. Back testing suggested that this was not going to have the greatest returns but seemed to be robust in terms of having decent return with DD<30%.
    Its been a good learning experience more than anything else. Have some ideas to improve the system but need to find the time to do things properly. :)
     
    aus_trader, sptrawler, Newt and 3 others like this.
  11. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Thanks for the status on your system @jjbinks
    today, no change in system2 which is fully invested but for system1, we sold 2 goldies:
    AQG:sold 1176 @5.85 for a profit of $ 1,861.60
    AGG:sold 1070 @5.91 for a profit of $ 1,435.20

    bought 1527 IMF @ 3.69 for a total of $5644.63
    bought 298 BKW @ 18 for a total of $5374
    bought 427 BAL @ 12.87 for a total of $5505.49
    once again BAl is under takeover so should I buy it or not...backtest do not check and my system was tested on backtest, BUT shares of companies under takeover usually diseappear so may not be taken into account in my backtest..anyway, there was only 3 buys so I could store money there for a week but not a very pleasant thoughts
    I pondered a lot before sending the order..
     
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  12. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    result of the week:
    for the systems:
    ###########################
    System I (the original)
    LOSS of $141 this week

    Start 25/02/2019
    Total invested $ 100,000.00
    Cash remaining $2,165.36
    Current portfolio value $107,876.44
    Profit $7,876.44
    Nb of active position20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 25/02 7.88%
    Annual return so far 13.56%
    purchase value per position 2447.72
    Invested percentage 97%
    dividends $ 619.52

    upload_2019-9-27_21-55-37.png
    No trades planned on Monday
    ###########################
    system II
    gain $ 1,840.22 this week

    Start 5/08/2019
    Total invested $ 100,532.76
    Cash remaining $6.69
    Current portfolio value $100,634.02
    Profit $82.52
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 5/08 0.10%
    Annual return so far 0.71%
    Invested percentage 99%
    dividends $ 236.61
    Average per week: 16.5036
    We are back in black after a disastrous start during the august fall

    upload_2019-9-27_21-58-30.png


    We are still losing to the XAOA on that time frame but results are improving

    More actions on Monday 2 buy and 2 sells
    Have all a great week end
     
    Warr87, peter2, debtfree and 4 others like this.
  13. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    For anyone interested
    Neither of my 2 systems use stop loss but i am a believer in stop loss, so yesterday, i went and tried again to put stop loss triggers in my formula and backtest these
    Well this is monte carlo tested and i tried on several past periods
    Crash, uptrend etc
    I have very marginal only slightly improved results with a trailing stop set at 47%
    And it sometimes even return worse results
    I have trouble to believe this but such are the figures
    There is a psychological advantage if i say to myself, i have a stop loss so i sleep better
    But that's about it
    Anyone with similar experience where SL are useless in their system?
     
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  14. Newt

    Newt

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    Its really hard qldfrog, and SLs do often curb profits. I found some value in the concept of "consider selling when your entry criteria are reversed". Thinking this through allowed me to develop a compromise of trailing stops versus "would I enter here now if I had never held this stock?".
    Whatever conditions you're using for entries, perhaps review and see if there is some useful way you could flip them for trailing stops at a distance you're happy with from current price action.

    Skate has some clever double trail stops on not dis-similar principles if you read back through stuff he's shared.
     
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  15. rnr

    rnr

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    Hi qldfrog,

    So your only exit strategies are your Initial Stop and Take Profit?

    Cheers,
    Rob
     
  16. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    No, no
    There is no stop loss but there are exit conditions, stale, change of trends etc
    But none are applied intra day, they just point to
    - exit on monday open as part of my weekly system
    So if disaster happens, i am exposed naked until next monday when the damage or most of the damage is done
     
  17. Newt

    Newt

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    That could be an advantage too, that you DON'T have stops in the market all the time, so won't get taken out by wild daily moves in the market - get to stand back and look at the bigger weekly picture?
     
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  18. peter2

    peter2

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    Just want to confirm that stop losses do reduce the profits in all trend following systems. The only reason to use them is to reduce the draw downs to a comfortable level. This comfortable feeling has a cost and that is reduced profits.

    The best stop loss is a very tight initial stop loss but this is very hard to trade as the W% is only 10-20%. The AW/AL is HUGE and there is much more work to do as so many trades are stopped out quickly and need to be re-entered.
     
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  19. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    That is exactly what the figures on my backtests show indeed
     
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  20. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    This is the time again:
    OK week especially considering the indexes:
    ###########################
    System I (the original)
    win of $368 this week

    Start 25/02/2019
    Total invested $ 100,000.00
    Cash remaining $2,166.18
    Current portfolio value $108,245.27
    Profit $8,245.27
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 25/02 8.25%
    Annual return so far 13.74%
    purchase value per position N/A
    Invested percentage 97%
    dividends $ 865.08
    Average per week: 294.4739286
    Catching up on the XAOA , nearly there with initially far less exposure but now fully invested
    upload_2019-10-4_18-29-10.png
    no trade planned on Monday
    ###########################
    system II
    small loss of $245 this week

    Start 5/08/2019
    Total invested $ 100,532.76

    Cash remaining $31.00
    Current portfolio value $100,388.49
    Profit -$163.06
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 5/08 -0.14%
    Annual return so far -0.89%
    purchase value per position N/A
    Invested percentage 99%
    dividends $ 133.77
    Average per week: -32.6114

    upload_2019-10-4_18-31-36.png


    We are overtaking the XAOA on that time frame

    No action on Monday
    Have all a great week end
     
    Newt, peter2, debtfree and 3 others like this.
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