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Inflation

Knobby22

Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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yes the one-child policy , was certainly a bold initiative , especially in hindsight as we watch the consequences after that policy was relaxed ( not many families stepped up to embrace the two-child policy ) , and record-keeping on 'families ' is currently a mess ( as children were secretly adopted out )

and of course it also create a massive gender imbalance

it may yet be the CCP's largest blunder to date
3 child policy now. Getting desperate.
 
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Wo it, china would still be starving.
By creating a 1 child policy, it also meant families were investing a lot into the only child so instead of 2 y11 graduates, you got a 1 university graduate.
It also raised the type of goods consummed from basics to higher level domestic consumption, and so allowed China's economy to detach itself from export only focus.
Most are unaware in the west, but we will discover after the fact that whatever we trumpet, we aka the west need China more than China needs us.
Ukraine repeat..and seeing how we learnt ftom past errors, not agood time to be, among others, Taiwanese...
My opinion..just compare the average Indian vs average Chinese.
from memory China had already starved .. during the Great Leap forward ,

now maybe it is not currently a thing , but when i grew up a Chinese male ( ethnic Chinese even though born in Australia/NZ or wherever ) he was matched up with a wife from China (mainly the mainland but sometimes from Taiwan )

so there was a trickle of prime breeding ladies into other nations ,

now yes the 'little prince ' syndrome ( mostly because when forced into choice the family strongly preferred males ) has become a problem for multiple reasons ( maybe the Chinese government foresaw this is a discrete solution to the older citizens and aged care , otherwise the problem would be similar to Japan )

one major difference between China and India ( since they were both 'reborn ' as independent nations shortly after WW2 ) is India was more divided , both by the caste system and the stronger local area governments (i am not convinced on the caste system , but strong regional governments could be a winning edge , quicker recognition and solutions to problems )

what would be interesting to see , is IF India can become the world's leading ( and undisputed ) economic power before China manages that feat ( currently you could argue China is either No.1 or 2 depending on the metrics used )

personally i am tilting my international investing towards India because i can see more room for growth , sure they still have several problems , but they can be solved by Indians

one thing for sure , it the West is NOT learning from the past the situation around China has clear echoes of pre-WW2 Japan

only 'the new Japan ' is at least ten times larger and the US is weak and unstable
 
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3 child policy now. Getting desperate.
yes , the one child policy created a BIG problem , maybe it was kept in place too long , or maybe it was always going to create this problem once the path was chosen

i have always been a fan , of lifting the population living standards , and when that is done population growth seems to decline , i think it is something to do with the survival of bloodlines ( because it seems to affect other species as well , not just humans )

for China , i suspect the current breeding generation are unwilling to work hard enough to support 3 or 4 children ( and if a 'young prince ' not used to a multiple child family scenario )
 
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yes , the one child policy created a BIG problem , maybe it was kept in place too long , or maybe it was always going to create this problem once the path was chosen

i have always been a fan , of lifting the population living standards , and when that is done population growth seems to decline , i think it is something to do with the survival of bloodlines ( because it seems to affect other species as well , not just humans )

for China , i suspect the current breeding generation are unwilling to work hard enough to support 3 or 4 children ( and if a 'young prince ' not used to a multiple child family scenario )

Rat utopia, give people everything they want and desire and they will become neurotic, narcissistic, obese violent and too lazy to even ****.
 
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from memory China had already starved .. during the Great Leap forward ,

now maybe it is not currently a thing , but when i grew up a Chinese male ( ethnic Chinese even though born in Australia/NZ or wherever ) he was matched up with a wife from China (mainly the mainland but sometimes from Taiwan )

so there was a trickle of prime breeding ladies into other nations ,

now yes the 'little prince ' syndrome ( mostly because when forced into choice the family strongly preferred males ) has become a problem for multiple reasons ( maybe the Chinese government foresaw this is a discrete solution to the older citizens and aged care , otherwise the problem would be similar to Japan )

one major difference between China and India ( since they were both 'reborn ' as independent nations shortly after WW2 ) is India was more divided , both by the caste system and the stronger local area governments (i am not convinced on the caste system , but strong regional governments could be a winning edge , quicker recognition and solutions to problems )

what would be interesting to see , is IF India can become the world's leading ( and undisputed ) economic power before China manages that feat ( currently you could argue China is either No.1 or 2 depending on the metrics used )

personally i am tilting my international investing towards India because i can see more room for growth , sure they still have several problems , but they can be solved by Indians

one thing for sure , it the West is NOT learning from the past the situation around China has clear echoes of pre-WW2 Japan

only 'the new Japan ' is at least ten times larger and the US is weak and unstable
True i did not mention the fact that these single kids generation create an ******** Generation , which is not good news for international relations as these pricks will support ultra nationalism and China first even more blindly....
 
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Rat utopia, give people everything they want and desire and they will become neurotic, narcissistic, obese violent and too lazy to even ****.
it is a noted biological phenomenon ( in animals ) that stress ( especially life-threatening ones ) increases sexual urges

but the violence level doesn't change only the focus ( protecting what they have , if not fighting for survival )
 
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Ahh the Reset dream...😂
no just a tool to help achieve the dream ( they want it all , and unwilling to share )

the treachery you will see when their plan comes together , remember the Soviet phrase 'useful idiots ' ( most of the slaves can be replaced by automation )
 
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US retailers to report this week. Will be interesting to see what their guidance will be given the discount on crude
POO might play yoyo but we have a fundamental lack of oil investment in the West, closure of refineries yet ever increasing world need and in my opinion a trend toward higher price for oil overall
Remember that Wunderbar liquid is still cheaper than a liter of milk or a bottle of mineral water.
There is plenty of room for POO to become a structural inflation support in the coming decades irrespective of currency play ,rates etc.
Real PPI is here to stay long term imho.
 
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More supply side issues:

Sichuan, one of China's largest provinces with 84 million people, told 19 out of 21 cities in the region to suspend production at all factories from Monday to Saturday

And it's for the same reason as many others:

The province's top officials warned Monday that Sichuan is currently facing the "most severe and extreme moment" in power supply, according to government-run Sichuan Daily.


I'll simply add that through much of the world energy infrastructure is barely adequate and we can expect this to be a recurring theme going forward. :2twocents
 

over9k

But first, let me consult my goldfish
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"Southern Sweden is particularly vulnerable to low wind levels after several nuclear reactors were shut over the past few years".


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"Soaring energy costs throughout Europe are raising risks of gas rationing and blackouts in the winter when demand peaks".


Just think how well the U.S energy companies are going to do when the new facilities are completed and they can actually start delivering to europe ;)
 
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