- Joined
- 4 October 2016
- Posts
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- 5
What ideas? You are referring to "my ideas" I didn't say any, not sure what you mean.Are there any papers showing evidence that your
Ideas are in fact profitable.
All the fundamental follow my trades shown on ASF don't appear to be that profitable.
So there are 2 components in successful value investing. Finding quality businesses and finding out their intrinsic value then buying the stock which is alot lower than its true value. How much time do you spend on each would you say? This investor on youtube said takes about 1000 hours to get ready to make an investment decision, that sounds crazy to me, what the hell do you do for 1000 hours? Surely it doesn't take that long to figure out whether or not the business is of high quality.
Ah ok. Well I believe they are the 2 components what else is there to being a successful value investor.Your two components of successful value investing
Ah ok thanks great information. I'll try implement it all.I would suggest that if you only have a small amount of capital (i.e. dealing with retail products only, so less than $2m for arguments sake), then there's really only one part to it - finding out the business' intrinsic value. Once you have a feel for it and you notice the price is well below that value, you perform the transaction, nothing to it really.
1,000 hours seems extreme, but perhaps in some complex situations it may not be enough. For example, you want to understand:
- Company management
- The history of the company (at least 5 years worth)
- The balance sheet, any conditional or off-balance sheet liabilities, a good feel for their assets (e.g are they listed at purchase price or market value), etc
- Their operational model, what proportion of costs are fixed vs variable, gross profit margins
- The background behind any licensing/intellectual property
- Industry mechanics
- Industry standards, margins (e.g. who's the lowest cost player)
- Regulation or lack thereof
- Exchange rates/currency risk (e.g. if a U.S. company has AUD revenues, what is the impact if the AUDUSD yield spread narrows?)
Sometimes when you're dealing with companies that are cheap enough, you don't necessarily need to know all of this. For example, if you could buy a company at a significant discount to asset value and these assets were listed at under market value, then you could argue that future growth is less important, as you potentially get it for free.
An example that comes to mind is UOS. Debt free, swimming in cash, trading at 2/3 * NTA and about 6 times earnings (although last year had some property revaluation within it). I still need to understand currency risk, management history (and age in this case), any balance sheet liabilities and potentially look at their major subsidiaries. But I don't need a lot of detail around who the lowest cost player is, because the NTA backing is large enough to provide minimal downside in my investment.
On average, I probably spend about 40hours looking at a particular company, mostly in thought about the "what if" scenarios. If I find a situation I can't answer, I'll get as much information as I can to do so, then think again.
Perhaps I'm not spending enough time evaluating the company... I can't answer that. But 1,000 hours does seem extreme.
Ah ok. Well I believe they are the 2 components what else is there to being a successful value investor.
I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to say.Many aspire to be here.(successful)
I don't know any who have.(Value investors)
Its a great and very logical theory---practice.
Books have even been written about it.
But with so much confliction from one practitioner to another on value
AND the amount of time you have to STAY wrong to find out things weren't
as they seemed.------
Not all move from Undervalued to higher value. Many fall lower despite valuations.
If everyone agreed then you'd see it immediately in any chart where its trading at a discount.
By the time you see it the parties over!
While not exhaustive.
View attachment 71070
Many aspire to be here.(successful)
I don't know any who have.(Value investors)
Its a great and very logical theory---practice.
Books have even been written about it.
But with so much confliction from one practitioner to another on value
AND the amount of time you have to STAY wrong to find out things weren't
as they seemed.------
Not all move from Undervalued to higher value. Many fall lower despite valuations.
If everyone agreed then you'd see it immediately in any chart where its trading at a discount.
By the time you see it the parties over!
While not exhaustive.
View attachment 71070
So there are 2 components in successful value investing. Finding quality businesses and finding out their intrinsic value then buying the stock which is alot lower than its true value.
Are there any papers showing evidence that your Ideas are in fact profitable.
Ah ok. Well I believe they are the 2 components what else is there to being a successful value investor.
Boggs puts it exactly as I would had I been as articulate.
Klogg
Thank you for the link.the point made here is a wide discrepancy in
Intrinsic value and market value.The wider the better.
20% doesn't cut it
> 100% is more like it. They are as rare as a lottery win.But someone wins the lottery every week
There is no doubt Ducat 916 raises one of the most important aspects to successful investing - you need patience, and its a sort of patience most people dont actually have even if they think they do. Coupled with that an investor needs nerves of steel - to paraphrase Keynes, the market can remain irrational and inefficient much longer than most people have the patience to wait. That means the investor needs to be able to watch paper losses and not panic.
The same nerves and patience are required on the other side of the ledger - to not sell out of businesses too soon.
For much of the time there is no discernible difference between being right, too soon, and being wrong.
Ultimatley it wont matter how many hours you spend studying a business, if you dont have the temperament for value investing you wont be profitable.
Interesting.I certainly wouldnt spend that amount of time studying a business before taking a stake of ownership! Hell I probably wouldn't spend that much time before I started a company!! I wonder if what the person meant was that it takes up to 1000 hours of studying before you are really ready to be an investor?
Even then its an abitary number, some will learn a lot from 100 hours of study and some will learn very little from 10,000 hours!
I think that for any successful strategy of investing you need to do a lot of reading and learning to become confident and proficient, I think so many people have a personality unsuited to investing, they are really gamblers looking for instant gratification. Also I think the disciplines to study are much broader than people understand generally. Aside from learning the basics of finance so you can read and understand financial reports, I have also read a lot of human psychology, the building blocks of science, physics, chemistry, biology, geology.., mathematics - particularly statistics and probability but also algebra, I also read all the standard investing texts, from Graham, thru Buffett, Munger, Lynch, Dreman, Marks, Speziale, etc etc.
I read a lot of blogs about investing and thinking and improving ones mental processes, there is some amazing stuff out there and I think devoting significant time each day to reading is one of the most powerful things you can do.
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