Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

It will be interesting to see what the American cousins do tonight with gold, given that the Chinese, Russian and Indian cousins have put Mr. Trump in to check. He is a wily old fool, so I'd never say mate.

But he is in check and lotsa worries re an overinflated market, inflation and interest rates among the good old boys.

My expectation of gold hitting $4400 in USD may come more quickly than I thought.

gg

 

[farmerge]

It will be interesting to see what the American cousins do tonight with gold, given that the Chinese, Russian and Indian cousins have put Mr. Trump in to check. He is a wily old fool, so I'd never say mate.

But he is in check and lotsa worries re an overinflated market, inflation and interest rates among the good old boys.

My expectation of gold hitting $4400 in USD may come more quickly than I thought.

gg

@Garpal Gumnut If your prediction of $4400 comes close to the mark then hopefully the gold miners, top self and juniors will reap the rewards for the shareholders.

 

[mullokintyre]

I took a bit of money off the table this morning.
Things have been running hard, and I think we need a breather.
Sold some STN, reached another 52 week high and had become the second largest holding in the portfolio.
Sold half my RMS, seems to have also run hard, and got some sells in for TRE and AUC both of which are up over 40% since may latest buy in them.
Looking to increase holdings in some international shares, like Skeena and Solgold and Anglo Ashanti.
Mick

Despite gold going up today in AUD terms, it seems that a few punters have downsized.
Most of my gold stocks down today after some very healthy runups.
Will be interesting to see how my orders on the NYSE and TSX go tonight.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Despite gold going up today in AUD terms, it seems that a few punters have downsized.
Most of my gold stocks down today after some very healthy runups.
Will be interesting to see how my orders on the NYSE and TSX go tonight.
Mick

Picked up some more skeena overnight after it dropped a fraction, but the others kept going right on up.
may have to sit tight for a while.
Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Why gold may keep rising - and what could stop it​

• David Tait, James Gruber
• 03 September

This is an edited transcript of an interview between Firstlinks' James Gruber and David Tait, CEO of the World Gold Council in Sydney.

---

James Gruber: Gold has been one of the best performing assets over the past few years – what’s the outlook from here, in your view?
David Tait: I'm often asked this question and the way I've chosen to answer it is rather than come over as overtly bullish, I say I cannot at the moment envisage a situation where it can go down, given the circumstances - except for one circumstance.

So let me briefly explain it to you. There are various aspects that are driving it higher. Firstly, the ‘the lady bird book of economics crowd’, interest rates and the dollar, that I think have largely been discounted over the last year or so. You've got the central banking crowd who have been buying gold hand over fist. Largely speaking, the developing central banks have been doing this. They've been doing it for very personal diversification reasons and portfolio management reasons. They've been doing it for exit the dollar reasons. They’ve been doing it because they're worried about geopolitics. There are 1,000 different reasons why they've been doing it, and I think that's going to continue.

There is a collection of three things in Asia that I think are going to continue to drive gold higher. Firstly, it's the money flowing from the older generation to younger generation in Japan at a time when fund managers are becoming younger. At the same time as they're inheriting a ton of money, they have great electronic penetration. And this comes at a time when Japan has experienced inflation for the very first time. So I think there's an opportunity there for the younger generation to buy gold.

At the beginning of this year China deregulated its insurance market. We were responsible for that, I'm very proud to say. It took nine years to get them to do it, but eventually they allowed 10 insurance companies to invest 1% of their assets in gold on the route to 15% and that market is US$5 trillion. So you can do the math. However, I forgot to mention the Japanese one is a $5 trillion market too.
And the last one is this growth of the ETF industry in India, which has come from nothing to more than 20 ETFs over a couple of years. It's a low AUM (assets under management) at the moment, only 70 tonnes. And we're doing a lot of work to try and redirect the younger generation to give them a gold alternative, which is an electronic core, functioning thing they can have on their phone.

So those three buckets combined with the most major one, which is the sovereign debt crisis throughout the world. I've been bleating on about it for years, but I do think back in April when there was a threat to the trust in the United States, this shifted the entire yield curve wholeheartedly up in one go, as opposed to steepening and lowering it like inflation does. If that yield curve [as a whole, both short and long end] stays higher, what happens is we won't be able to finance any debt, because the short end and the long end of the yield curve are both higher, and that's when the mathematics runs away. That is something none of us want to live through because you end up in a situation of every country around the table forgiving each other on that debt.
Gold prices (AUD/ounce)


JG: What's that risk to gold that you spoke of at the beginning?
DT: The main risk in terms of downside for gold is that if President Trump, having ladled more debt on the American existing debt, manages to pull off high non-inflationary growth, which is not really expected.
Remember, the tariffs allegedly are only going to raise prices in a one-off manner, not change the rate of inflation. If he manages, through that massive injection of sugar into that economy, he spurs growth to a high enough level that he can pay off his current account 6-9% deficit, and it looks real at the same time that he's cutting the deficit, that would be the moment that I would say would be the top of the gold market.
But probability adjusted I doubt he will succeed, but stranger things have happened, and frankly, I don't know a luckier person on this earth than that man.

JG: Central banks had been big buyers of gold in 2023-2024 driving demand for the yellow metal – has that continued this year?
DT: We're unsure at this moment whether we're going to get to 1,000 tonnes this year. That's not to say we won't, but it's not quite as clear as it was before. We're seeing different central banks showing up, and central banks who have historically been buying gold like mad, stepping back a little bit. So, in aggregate, we can't tell.
But our survey of the central banks suggests 47% of them are going to add gold this year, which is the highest number ever. But I can't extrapolate from that what the number [of tonnes] will be, but it should be very significant.

JG: A few months ago, there were lines of people outside shops selling gold here in Sydney – something I hadn’t seen before. Have you also seen growing interest from individual investors in gold?
DT: Definitely through Asia. Just to go to a China gold shop or an Indian gold shop.
During this portion of the rally, we haven't seen any typical recycling of [people selling] their gold at high prices. Now that that could simply be because they've seen such consistent price rises and they don't see this as the end.
An amusing story is about Costco in the States [US], where people are rocking up in their pickup trucks and buying gold over the counter.

JG: While gold has done well, gold miners have lagged. I suspect that it might be because gold miners burnt the trust of investors during the 2010-2012 boom when they overspent on acquisitions and incinerated capital. Do you think that’s right?
DT: Officially, I’m not supposed to be able to comment on mining stocks. But my personal opinion is that you are right on that.
I've got this sense that there has been less of this frenzy to go spend the money than we've seen in the past, which I think bodes well.

JG: Nowadays, investors often compare gold to bitcoin – what are the pros and cons of each?
DT: The best way to describe this is to start slightly backward.
I do think Bitcoin is a speculative investment. I do think at some point, though, it will become something that you hold as a store of value, if it can survive. And I've got no real personal opinion if it can survive. Maybe it can; maybe it can't.
But I do believe that if you choose to hold Bitcoin, you're compelled to hold gold as a diversifier within your portfolio.
The moment you add Bitcoin, you have the big problem, because it performs the same as, or positively correlates with, other risk assets, like equities. Your portfolio risk is multiplied. Hence it makes sense to hold gold against it as a diversifier, as gold is negatively correlated to other risk assets.
The vast majority of Bitcoin is held by a very small number of people. And I think gold, which is supported by one of the most liquid markets in the world, is its antithesis.

JG: The World Gold Council has been on a mission to modernise the gold market through blockchain technology and tokenisaton. Can you tell us more about this?
DT: Well, this came from my previous career because I closed down gold and commodities trading globally at Credit Suisse. And I did that because I had to. I wasn't able to get a return on the capital I allocated to the business, so I took the capital, put it somewhere else. I didn't understand why gold was so “capital expensive”. I just knew what I had to do – move the capital to a place where it returned better. I didn't understand why I wasn't getting the return.

Five years later, I'm in this role trying to figure that out this actual reason, and basically it boils down to trust. So, to solve the trust issue in gold, we created a database (Gold Bar Integrity) for responsibly sourced gold so you can check to see if your gold is what it says it is and has come from a responsible source.
The second thing was to try and standardise all the shapes and sizes of gold that are out there. So how do I standardise it? Essentially, we’re doing three things. We are digitalising the ecosystem in London, to the extent that by the end of this year, you will see gold transferred amongst banks as digital gold collateral for the very first time. And we've got all the banks working together on that, JP Morgan, HSBC, Goldman, etc. That's a huge infrastructure project.

The second thing that is running concurrently is the development of a mechanism by which you translate all these shapes and sizes into a standard digital format or SGU. It's really simple. You land on, let's say, one gram of 999 gold as the standard gold unit (SGU), and for instance you convert your kilo bar into 1,000 standard units. Simple. You convert it through an algorithm. You convert a 396.5 ounce London Good Delivery Bar using the same algorithm into these identical digital units. You convert all the gold in a database into those digital units. You do not lever the gold; critically it's one to one conversion and can be reversed and redeemed at any time. Importantly, this digital unit is not the trading item. Instead you create a pool of digital gold that you can back many other financial instruments into. So gold becomes trusted.

The reason for doing this was the reason I was actually employed, which was try and bring the institutional asset management world to the gold market because once you've created that digital pool, you have full transparency, instant delivery vs payment, clear price formation, the ability to surveille the markets as well as the ability to lower the capital burden, gold can attract a new generation of investors.
All the reasons why I closed down the Credit Suisse business are reduced, if not eliminated completely. So the asset managers of the future can allocate their money to gold as easily and as cheaply as they can to US dollar swaps or Treasuries as an example.

Why gold may keep rising - and what could stop it

Central banks are buying, Asia’s investing, and gold’s going digital. The World Gold Council CEO reveals the structural shifts transforming the gold market - and the one economic wildcard that could change everything.

www.firstlinks.com.au

.... and comments section

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Should it go to plan technically it may go to or just past $3500 and then retrace to $3400 before heading on past $4000. My target would be $4300-4400. If it goes it will have the built up momentum of the last 5 months spent in consolidation.This will get us in $AUD to $6500-6700 or in PMGOLD terms $65-67 per share or thereabouts. If PMGOLD gets to the mid $60's I won't be arguing about thereabouts.
gg

This situation with the POG is working out much more quickly than I thought. @bigdog will attest to my contempt for published "experts" and I am no expert but I feel some self contempt for even posting this.

I had hoped the POG would clear $3500 which it has done and then would retrace on some profit taking out $3500 on the way down possibly to $3400. This is working out much more quickly than I thought which amounts to extreme VOLATILITY.

Perhaps it may stabilise for a while but if it closes anywhere near $3400 I believe that it may then take off quickly on "cheap" buying very quickly towards $4500. I bought more PMGOLD on the close yesterday.

Of course make sure that you DYOO or is it DRYY or DDYR or ROAD or whatever you free carrying guys write when someone visits Mrs Murphy down the road from ASIC and bundles her in to a paddy wagon because they got your house number wrong.

Anyways, the world is stuffed and it ain't going to get unstuffed anytime soon.



gg

 

[Sean K]

This situation with the POG is working out much more quickly than I thought. @bigdog will attest to my contempt for published "experts" and I am no expert but I feel some self contempt for even posting this.

I had hoped the POG would clear $3500 which it has done and then would retrace on some profit taking out $3500 on the way down possibly to $3400. This is working out much more quickly than I thought which amounts to extreme VOLATILITY.

Perhaps it may stabilise for a while but if it closes anywhere near $3400 I believe that it may then take off quickly on "cheap" buying very quickly towards $4500. I bought more PMGOLD on the close yesterday.

Of course make sure that you DYOO or is it DRYY or DDYR or ROAD or whatever you free carrying guys write when someone visits Mrs Murphy down the road from ASIC and bundles her in to a paddy wagon because they got your house number wrong.

Anyways, the world is stuffed and it ain't going to get unstuffed anytime soon.

View attachment 207678

gg

I was hoping support at $3430 might have been tested and then a continuation on the spot POG. Maybe that will still happen.

That will equate to approximately this blue line on GLD.

After four months of sideways consolidation it might just keep going from here too.

 

[Bailxtrader]

Why Is Gold Hitting Record Highs Right Now?

Gold prices are surging to new highs this September, driven by rate cut expectations, central bank demand, a weaker dollar, geopolitical tension, and renewed ETF inflows. What is driving this gold rally and will it last?

www.cmcmarkets.com

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It will be very interesting to see whether or not gold profit takers in NY tonight our time decide to move and take some recent gains as cash. The chart is a bit "bumpy bumpy" atm. and it would not surprise me should they do so.

The BRICS will have been pleased with Mr. Xi and the Chinese cousins' show of strength in front of Mr. Andrew Daniels and other world leaders this week.

There is a rumour going about on the Bright Web that the undeclared China Central Bank's holdings of Gold are massively under-rated and that the American cousins as well as having elected a show pony as President recently have also elected a complete moron in backing crypto. Digital Gold is on the way and another rumour has it that Mr. Young Jung Kim Ung may be moving to cause a massive crash in crypto which would send gold sky high.

Anyways TAISWAGOS. Here's a chart.



gg

 

[rederob]

In the last 3 minutes POG broke through the previous record high by adding $8 extra to reach a new record high - charted below.
I have been tracking the end month trends from daily data for 2025 and the momentum has just swung positive again.

View attachment 207492

It's not often that you get POG jumping over $100 during the week, setting several all time records along the way.
Maybe it's never happened before, and someone else can check, as I'm just posting the latest record price as it jumps in increments of $100, to now sit at a staggering $3600:

 

[finicky]

the American cousins as well as having elected a show pony as President recently have also elected a complete moron in backing crypto

^^^


"The golden age of America begins right now"

 

[Antirnator]

My theory is people are running to gold because the DC federal court of appeals screwed with the Bessent tariffs and when the US federal supreme court overturns their decision they will pull out of gold and go back into other stocks. Gold is a safe haven.

 

[rederob]

My theory is people are running to gold because the DC federal court of appeals screwed with the Bessent tariffs and when the US federal supreme court overturns their decision they will pull out of gold and go back into other stocks. Gold is a safe haven.

Certain things get baked-in, and in this case the negative effects of Trump's tariffs is one. Many sectors of America's industry are being bypassed as the rest of the world has determined America is an unreliable trading partner and has moved its partnerships to other nations. The clear effects of this will be to increase consumer prices (as any replacement of goods by American businesses will be more expensive) and increase unemployment (as export markets are being progressively lost.

Even if Trump overnight did away with all his deranged tariffs, it would not stop the inevitable decline that has been set in train. But Trump won't back down so the prognosis is for more of WORSE to come. That's the setting that has been propping up gold, and will continue to do so.

Regarding your point about the US Supreme Court, given it has been bought by Trump you may well be right. And if that proved to be the case then it would become even more concerning to the international community in that Trump's TACO and vindictive tariffs will be seen as pervasive.

 

[Antirnator]

Certain things get baked-in, and in this case the negative effects of Trump's tariffs is one. Many sectors of America's industry are being bypassed as the rest of the world has determined America is an unreliable trading partner and has moved its partnerships to other nations. The clear effects of this will be to increase consumer prices (as any replacement of goods by American businesses will be more expensive) and increase unemployment (as export markets are being progressively lost.

Your imaginary narrative has no basis in fact given all the trade deals and peace deals that have been completed. As of July US inflation is still at 2.7%, far less than the whole Biden administration. It might go up or it might settle now the trade deals are done, I will wait and see...

Even if Trump overnight did away with all his deranged tariffs, it would not stop the inevitable decline that has been set in train. But Trump won't back down so the prognosis is for more of WORSE to come. That's the setting that has been propping up gold, and will continue to do so.

Yes, the emotional narrative created by the side that is against Trump has increased chaos in the markets.

Regarding your point about the US Supreme Court, given it has been bought by Trump you may well be right. And if that proved to be the case then it would become even more concerning to the international community in that Trump's TACO and vindictive tariffs will be seen as pervasive.

Nope, companies just want reliability and certain people, using a massive forum shopping campaign, are blocking the use of executive power in the US which is undermining the stability of the markets. Yet the US markets are still going strong.

I am not trying to discuss the world through the lens of TDS. Cherrypicking, false equivalencies and ad hominem attacks are all a waste time.

 

[rederob]

Your imaginary narrative has no basis in fact given all the trade deals and peace deals that have been completed. As of July US inflation is still at 2.7%, far less than the whole Biden administration. It might go up or it might settle now the trade deals are done, I will wait and see...

In FACT there are ZERO completed - that is signed - deals to date, so you need to do better research. Even Howard Lutnick said this in interviews last week, acknowledging that it takes time for the details to be inked.

Yes, the emotional narrative created by the side that is against Trump has increased chaos in the markets.

No, the actions of Trump alone have given rise to market uncertainty. As a result China has actually increased its exports after Trump has imposed his tariffs because other nations now have a more stable trading partner to deal with.

Nope, companies just want reliability and certain people, using a massive forum shopping campaign, are blocking the use of executive power in the US which is undermining the stability of the markets. Yet the US markets are still going strong.

You have absolutely no idea how economic events play out. Outside the magnificent seven on the DOW, who trade across international boundaries in the service sector which is unaffected by tariffs, all industry sectors subject to tariffs have been negatively affected. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/comm...ng-most-sectors-of-the-economy-191706763.html)

an

I am not trying to discuss the world through the lens of TDS. Cherrypicking, false equivalencies and ad hominem attacks are all a waste time.

From what you post you are blessed with a level of economic competence that typifies those who support Trump and consider tariffs some form of economic saviour, despite there being overwhelming global evidence from the past and present that tariffs are a recipe for disaster (eg Smoot- Hawley Tariff Act affecting post-1929 stock market crash - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/... Great,conditions during the Great Depression.)

I have posted consistently at ASF wrt to how tariffs are affecting various markets since February and there is no data contradicting what I have written. TDS seems to be a label that MAGAmaniacs need to use when they are shown to be vacuuous.

As I hold EVN, NEM and RMS shares presently valued at over $200K I am very pleased to see a lunatic stuff up global trade in the manner Trump has, because fear and uncertainty are the best friends gold can have, especially when they set off the economic triggers that give us confidence (eg as in the bond market) that POG's upward trajectory remains in place.

 

[finicky]

Communist China and its propagandists are poisoning and degrading the West.
Deliberately piping into the bloodstreams of Americans toxic psychoactive chemicals as a front in its warfare.
China has used tariffs and every well known dirty trick in its arsenal to take economic advantage of the U.S and Trump is the first president to arc the fk up, retaliate and not take pay from them like the Bidens and p'bly the Clintons.

 

[qldfrog]

Communist China and its propagandists are poisoning and degrading the West.
Deliberately piping into the bloodstreams of Americans toxic psychoactive chemicals as a front in its warfare.
China has used tariffs and every well known dirty trick in its arsenal to take economic advantage of the U.S and Trump is the first president to arc the fk up, retaliate and not take pay from them like the Bidens and p'bly the Clintons.

about politicians bending to Xi, do not forget our own state great leaders

 

[farmerge]

about politicians bending to Xi, do not forget our own state great leaders

Hmmmmm Dashing Dan comes quickly to mind.

 

[countrylad]

Hmmmmm Dashing Dan comes quickly to mind.

Bob Carr was also there but had the sense (if that's what you want to call it) not to attend the picture taking opportunity.

 

[farmerge]

Neither has the commonsense to see that being there in or out of the photo shoot was not a good look. Perhaps ex-Minister Carr realised being that visible was not good.