Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Gold is good. Close $3446.50.
gg
gg
Gold Price - Where is it heading?
- Thread starter guycharles
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Bailxtrader
Australian Republic Today
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France, the New Weak Link in the Eurozone | GoldBroker.com
On September 8, the French government will face a decisive confidence vote. The risk is clear: if the government fails and the general strike brings the country to a standstill, France could plunge into a systemic bond and banking crisis...
goldbroker.com
Sean K
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France, the New Weak Link in the Eurozone | GoldBroker.com
On September 8, the French government will face a decisive confidence vote. The risk is clear: if the government fails and the general strike brings the country to a standstill, France could plunge into a systemic bond and banking crisis...
This is probably more a piece on the French economy rather than gold, but there is a couple of paragraphs at the bottom that relate to this thread.
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France has fallen, it has been fully invaded, natives do not control the polls anymore and de facto is back to a third world country.France, the New Weak Link in the Eurozone | GoldBroker.com
On September 8, the French government will face a decisive confidence vote. The risk is clear: if the government fails and the general strike brings the country to a standstill, France could plunge into a systemic bond and banking crisis...
Last week the TGV, this french invention first deployed high speed trains between Paris and Lyon were stopped: the copper cables are robbed,organised crime control all suburbs and whole cities.
Economy is becoming a third world one with informal underground economy a key part: drug, stolen goods , prostitution and migration rings.
no rule of law exists
corruption is rife, and democratic system quite biased/corrupt
An economic collapse becoming public will not affect gold price imho, but it may lower the euro, a fabricated artificial meaningless fiat....
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Yea, but apart from those, everything is fine.
Mick
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jog on
duc
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Thanks Ducati ….
What a great presentation - discussion/debate. Long but excellent.
Very interesting with the different points of view.
The one blunder I have made to date is selling my gold stocks too early.
However, physical gold is the major topic here.
I have some but probably not enough but will jump in again at some stage later but not now!
3700 was the figure one of the speakers threw out there before a correction in gold (30-40% from memory). Charts will tell me when to buy again.
No one knows the future but certain cycles can play out accordingly.
Gold, imo will not be insulated in the crash. Nothing will be …. yes there are always some stocks that will prove me wrong but they will be in the minority & very difficult to find.
The GFC proved that!
When the markets collapse, very few stocks withstand the challenges, the markets will be in sell-off mode. 95% or more will fall ….
Interesting about the DXY, in my humble opinion this index has been sliding and will continue to do so. Currently around 97-98 cents but well down from the $1.10 earlier this year. I believe it will continue to decline, my opinion …
I mentioned in the 18.6 year cycle thread the widening of the yield, which was also mentioned a few times in this discussion/debate.
The speakers were excellent, they had their own points of view but produced clear, concise explanations of their views + explanations ….
I am biding time buying more stocks now before this market reaches its climax.
In fact my portfolio is now at its peak & all of my stocks are in very positive territory, I have sold some for 100-250% profit, still holding a few over 100% in the resource sector, also one in the REIT.
The sector should run well over the rest of this year into the early part of 2026.
Interesting that one of the speakers mentioned maybe 6 months away before the bubble collapses?
No one can actually be precise with timing but April 2026 in my view is the time to watch things very closely.
More so than anytime before, it’s now time to be very cautious even though some sectors/stocks have more time to run.
The end is now within our sights.
Getting your finances in order should be a priority.
I am gradually selling down. I still hold 18 stocks but I’m pushing the button now to take profits determined by my own TA analysis.
We are in the mania/bubble phase and it’s only a matter of time before things go belly up.
What a great presentation - discussion/debate. Long but excellent.
Very interesting with the different points of view.
The one blunder I have made to date is selling my gold stocks too early.
However, physical gold is the major topic here.
I have some but probably not enough but will jump in again at some stage later but not now!
3700 was the figure one of the speakers threw out there before a correction in gold (30-40% from memory). Charts will tell me when to buy again.
No one knows the future but certain cycles can play out accordingly.
Gold, imo will not be insulated in the crash. Nothing will be …. yes there are always some stocks that will prove me wrong but they will be in the minority & very difficult to find.
The GFC proved that!
When the markets collapse, very few stocks withstand the challenges, the markets will be in sell-off mode. 95% or more will fall ….
Interesting about the DXY, in my humble opinion this index has been sliding and will continue to do so. Currently around 97-98 cents but well down from the $1.10 earlier this year. I believe it will continue to decline, my opinion …
I mentioned in the 18.6 year cycle thread the widening of the yield, which was also mentioned a few times in this discussion/debate.
The speakers were excellent, they had their own points of view but produced clear, concise explanations of their views + explanations ….
I am biding time buying more stocks now before this market reaches its climax.
In fact my portfolio is now at its peak & all of my stocks are in very positive territory, I have sold some for 100-250% profit, still holding a few over 100% in the resource sector, also one in the REIT.
The sector should run well over the rest of this year into the early part of 2026.
Interesting that one of the speakers mentioned maybe 6 months away before the bubble collapses?
No one can actually be precise with timing but April 2026 in my view is the time to watch things very closely.
More so than anytime before, it’s now time to be very cautious even though some sectors/stocks have more time to run.
The end is now within our sights.
Getting your finances in order should be a priority.
I am gradually selling down. I still hold 18 stocks but I’m pushing the button now to take profits determined by my own TA analysis.
We are in the mania/bubble phase and it’s only a matter of time before things go belly up.
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There's a big difference between now and the GFC times though, central banks all over the world have poured money into gold.
It's a bit like the housing market; if the worst happens, they're only going to let gold drop so far.
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Let's just hope the artificial manufacture of gold remains uneconomical, boys 
For the record I do believe in the current bullish thesis for gold...
For the record I do believe in the current bullish thesis for gold...
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Good to see some responses.
1. One of the topics for discussion is how can long end rates move lower?
Very easily. The Fed implements Yield Curve Control. They buy every bond out there with newly created fiat dollars for a fixed yield of say 2.5%. This is exactly what happened post WWII. The inflation will of course be very high.
2. Could the USD super-spike?
Yes it could. Eurodollars are +/- $30 Trillion. World debt is in excess of $300 Trillion. The derivatives however exceed $1 Quadrillion, which are largely contracted in dollars. You have a default in the derivatives market, that becomes systemic, you could very easily have a USD super-spike.
The reason should be obvious. When supply of dollars is below (potential) demand for dollars and that demand suddenly jumps, the dollar will spike.
3. On gold losing 40% or some significant % in a liquidity crisis.
So of course it's possible.
Some links on the German hyper-inflation:
www.voimagold.com
money.visualcapitalist.com
So the way around this issue if you want to trade the event, if it happens is:
1. 89% of your gold held as physical;
2. 10% of your gold held as an ETF, PHYS;
3. 1% held as a PUT Option long dated LEAP on GLD
If gold falls 40% or whatever, your PUT Option gains value, sell for cash buy more PHYS. PHYS is the Sprott ETF and is convertible into gold. GLD is the best known gold ETF but is only convertible into cash. PHYS has no Options.
Of course you can play around with the % to suit yourself.
Wash, rinse, repeat.
jog on
duc
1. One of the topics for discussion is how can long end rates move lower?
Very easily. The Fed implements Yield Curve Control. They buy every bond out there with newly created fiat dollars for a fixed yield of say 2.5%. This is exactly what happened post WWII. The inflation will of course be very high.
2. Could the USD super-spike?
Yes it could. Eurodollars are +/- $30 Trillion. World debt is in excess of $300 Trillion. The derivatives however exceed $1 Quadrillion, which are largely contracted in dollars. You have a default in the derivatives market, that becomes systemic, you could very easily have a USD super-spike.
The reason should be obvious. When supply of dollars is below (potential) demand for dollars and that demand suddenly jumps, the dollar will spike.
3. On gold losing 40% or some significant % in a liquidity crisis.
So of course it's possible.
Some links on the German hyper-inflation:
Gold in crises part 1: German hyperinflation | Voima
The article explains what happened with gold and other assets during the German hyperinflation in 1921–1923.
www.voimagold.com
Infographic: The World's Most Famous Case of Hyperinflation
Hyperinflation has happened hundreds of times throughout history, but today we present the origins of the world's most famous case in Germany after WW1.
money.visualcapitalist.com
So the way around this issue if you want to trade the event, if it happens is:
1. 89% of your gold held as physical;
2. 10% of your gold held as an ETF, PHYS;
3. 1% held as a PUT Option long dated LEAP on GLD
If gold falls 40% or whatever, your PUT Option gains value, sell for cash buy more PHYS. PHYS is the Sprott ETF and is convertible into gold. GLD is the best known gold ETF but is only convertible into cash. PHYS has no Options.
Of course you can play around with the % to suit yourself.
Wash, rinse, repeat.
jog on
duc
Gold is good
3,471.50
USD+25.00 (+0.73%)
Ask
3,474.50
- ounce
3,471.50
+25.00
3485.80
Day's Range
Be cool like rcw1
Kind regards
rcw1
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So a 17 June 2027 Put at $200 will cost you $1.00 or $100 risk.
If gold were to retrace in a liquidity sell-off and come close, you are looking at $19,800 profit.
Meanwhile Buy
Sprott PHYS for $2600 per 100 shares and you are hedged up to 500 shares against a 40% decline for a cost of $100.
Just to compare:
Your actual loss in PHYS would be $10/share or $5000 on a 500 share position. So at $200 GLD you are actually showing a $14,800 profit, with your losses in PHYS fully hedged.
LOL.
What's not to love?
jog on
duc
Sean K
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This is a pretty strong break. Let's see what the Poms do on the open.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Thanks for those charts @Sean K
Should it go to plan technically it may go to or just past $3500 and then retrace to $3400 before heading on past $4000. My target would be $4300-4400. If it goes it will have the built up momentum of the last 5 months spent in consolidation.
This will get us in $AUD to $6500-6700 or in PMGOLD terms $65-67 per share or thereabouts. If PMGOLD gets to the mid $60's I won't be arguing about thereabouts.
gg
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|
jog on
duc
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In the last 3 minutes POG broke through the previous record high by adding $8 extra to reach a new record high - charted below.
I have been tracking the end month trends from daily data for 2025 and the momentum has just swung positive again.
I have been tracking the end month trends from daily data for 2025 and the momentum has just swung positive again.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Very nice.
Very nice indeed.
gg
Very nice indeed.
gg
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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The chart says it all. There will be some pullbacks on the way forward but mid $4000's is now a clear possibility. Sometimes one just has to be patient with gold.
When gold went from $2000 to $2500 it took a 25% gain in price. From here to $4400 is a similar effort, 25%. But let us reach $4000 first ! Congratulations to all on the "Gold heading" thread.
gg
When gold went from $2000 to $2500 it took a 25% gain in price. From here to $4400 is a similar effort, 25%. But let us reach $4000 first ! Congratulations to all on the "Gold heading" thread.
gg
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Yes, good overnight momentum.
More records high are going to be the norm leading into 2026.
More records high are going to be the norm leading into 2026.
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I took a bit of money off the table this morning.
Things have been running hard, and I think we need a breather.
Sold some STN, reached another 52 week high and had become the second largest holding in the portfolio.
Sold half my RMS, seems to have also run hard, and got some sells in for TRE and AUC both of which are up over 40% since may latest buy in them.
Looking to increase holdings in some international shares, like Skeena and Solgold and Anglo Ashanti.
Mick
Things have been running hard, and I think we need a breather.
Sold some STN, reached another 52 week high and had become the second largest holding in the portfolio.
Sold half my RMS, seems to have also run hard, and got some sells in for TRE and AUC both of which are up over 40% since may latest buy in them.
Looking to increase holdings in some international shares, like Skeena and Solgold and Anglo Ashanti.
Mick
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