Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[finicky]

^^^

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So, long term trend is up according the @ducati916 fundamentals, so could break up from here or keep bouncy bouncy* sideways or even correct down before it continues upward move, but the move is longer term up.

Need supply to disappear for @tech/a which could be caused by geopolitics and supply might increase if peace breaks out. I think @Garpal Gumnut agrees. Zelinsky's suit still looked like war dress to me @bux2000.

It seems we need a confluence of factors to break this sideways bouncy bouncy move to me.

A geopolitical security surprise for the worse.
Central banks announcement of massive purchases.
USD weakness.
A very large Indian wedding season.
Gold re-valued by the US to pay off some debt.
Rumours of a gold backed currency.

And, possibly an interest rate decision beneficial for gold.

Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech could be next catalyst for gold and silver prices – Saxo Bank’s Hansen

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.

www.kitco.com

(Kitco News) –Gold and silver continue to trade in tight ranges as traders await the next catalyst for price action – and Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech from Jackson Hole on Friday is the next potential trigger, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

“In recent weeks, some key U.S. economic data have surprised to the downside, while a stronger-than-expected PPI print reminded markets that inflationary pressures may still emerge from Trump's tariff policies,” Hansen wrote on Tuesday. “While that print temporarily cooled expectations for a larger or faster series of rate cuts, the market is still pricing a high probability of a 25 bp cut at the September FOMC meeting, but the path beyond remains uncertain.”

“Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks will therefore be scrutinized for any shift in tone, especially on the Fed’s tolerance for inflation if growth continues to soften.”

*TM @finicky

Jackson Hole in itself is just the tapestry and something from true left field will occur imo. Not that I’d want it to. I’d prefer if people could actually follow the best bits from their Big Books. I’m thinking another 9/11 or some other massive Islamic or Zionist/Settler Nazi-like atrocity. Unfortunately the world has become immured to the imposition of horror by one sect/tribe on another. It will happen though unfortunately. And the POG will react.

The other more peaceful significant event the could occur is the imposition of a gold standard on their currencies of one form or another by China and it’s BRICS mares or the USA.

gg

 

[ducati916]

“You can’t pump it… But you can bid it out of someone’s hands.” That’s a perfect one-liner for the way gold pricing works. And if you don’t know the difference between a futures contract and a Krugerrand, don’t worry. Let me strip away the jargon and explain this in plain English. Why You Can’t Pump Gold the Way You Pump Stocks Wall Street loves “pump and dump” schemes. A few tweets, a CNBC cameo, maybe a breathless podcast about “the next AI revolution” — and boom, a stock shoots higher. Tesla, GameStop, crypto coins named after dogs — all ripe for hype. Gold doesn’t play that game. You can’t just whip out a marketing campaign and create more gold. There’s no corporate board issuing press releases about “next quarter’s guidance” for the yellow metal. And unlike stocks or crypto, you can’t invent more with a keystroke.​ Credit: Goldman Sachs, via Zero Hedge The gold supply grows slowly, painfully, and expensively — through blasting rocks, hauling dirt, refining ore, and pouring bars. Mining adds about 1.5–2% a year to the total above-ground stock. That’s it. No hype cycle, no CEO chatter, no dog coin frenzy. Here’s where things get spicy. While you can’t conjure up gold, you can “force” someone else to sell it. Imagine you and I are at an auction. There’s one shiny bar on the table. I bid $2,000. You bid $2,050. I want it more, so I bid $2,100. Eventually, one of us gives up, and the other walks away with the bar. That’s the real gold market in action. If demand spikes — say, central banks hoard, or hedge funds panic, or retail investors decide they’d rather hold metal than dollars — the price climbs until the current owner says, “Fine, at that price I’ll sell.” That’s what Goldman means: you can’t inflate supply, but you can keep bidding higher until someone surrenders their stash. Where the Real Price Gets Made: London and New York Gold trades everywhere — Shanghai, Zurich, Dubai, Mumbai. But when push comes to shove, London and New York set the global price…. For now.​ Credit: Goldman Sachs via Zero Hedge London: Home of the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association). This is where massive physical trades settle. Think pallets of 400-ounce bars being shuffled between vaults. New York: The COMEX exchange. This is the futures market — paper gold contracts representing promises to deliver. These two cities act like twin engines. London sets the tone for physical bullion; New York amplifies price moves through futures speculation. That’s why when you hear “the gold price,” what you’re really hearing is a number born out of those two places. Everyone else — from Indian jewelers to Swiss refiners — takes their cues from those hubs.​

​

The Physical Reality of Gold Here’s the kicker: gold is a physical metal. We forget that sometimes, because we’re used to looking at glowing green numbers on a screen. But behind every contract, every ETF, every “price per ounce,” there’s supposed to be real metal — bars sitting in vaults. When someone insists on delivery, the metal must be there. This is why squeezes happen. If more buyers than sellers demand physical gold at the same time, vaults get drained. And once inventories look thin, buyers panic, bidding prices higher to secure what little is left. In other words: shortages drive spikes. The Goldman Takeaway: Demand Matters More Than Supply Goldman’s primer says: Don’t overthink the mining supply. It grows at a snail’s pace. What matters is who wants gold right now and how badly. If central banks (like China, Russia, or Poland lately) are vacuuming up gold, then supply gets squeezed. If hedge funds rotate out of bonds into gold as a safe haven, the same story applies. It’s not about “new gold coming out of the ground.” It’s about existing holders getting persuaded — or forced — to part with their bars. A Simple Analogy: Think Real Estate If you’ve ever tried to buy a house in a hot market, you already understand the gold market. Here’s a great bit of writing from the Goldman piece: A useful analogy is the Manhattan real estate market. The total number of apartments is largely fixed, and the small amount of new construction each year is not what drives prices. What matters is the identity of the marginal buyer. In Manhattan, there are two buyer groups: conviction buyers – those with deep pockets who will live there at any cost – and opportunistic buyers – those who will buy only at the right price and are content to live in Jersey or Brooklyn otherwise. Assuming no construction/demolitions, when 100 apartments are bought, 100 have also been sold; the question is, who took the keys? Conviction buyers set price direction: when they buy, prices rise and opportunists step back; when conviction buyers leave, opportunists step in. In other words, opportunists provide a floor under prices on the way down and resistance on the way up. Gold behaves the same way... In gold’s world, the central bankers are the conviction buyers, and retail investors are the opportunists. Gold Isn’t a Meme. Don’t expect it to moonshot on hype. The fundamentals matter: who’s buying, who’s hoarding, who’s selling. Squeezes Are Real. If too many buyers show up at once, price jumps are violent. That’s when you see gold gap $100 or $200 in days. Physical Still Rules. ETFs, futures, and mining stocks are fine for making vast sums of money. But if you want to understand gold, think about vaults and bars. Central Banks Are the Whales. When a big whale like the People’s Bank of China starts hoarding, they don’t care about paying $10 or $20 more per ounce. That sets the global tone. Gold, Alone. Gold is the anti-fiat. It doesn’t bend to hype, word of mouth, or Wall Street marketing departments. It doesn’t earn yield. It doesn’t innovate. But it sits there, 24/7, refusing to go to zero. And when push comes to shove, it can only change hands if the buyer makes the seller an offer he can’t refuse. That’s why gold drives the economists insane. They can print dollars by the trillion, conjure digital assets, inflate asset bubbles — but gold refuses to be pumped. It forces discipline: if you want it, you pay up. Goldman’s “most comprehensive primer” could have been boiled down to one rude truth: You can’t inflate gold. You can only pry it from someone else’s grip. And right now, with central banks hoarding and governments debasing currencies faster than you can say “QE Infinity,” you can bet those bids are only going higher. And just wait until retail realizes it’s missed the first 100-200% gains in the ETFs and mining stocks. So if you’ve already got your bars, sit tight. If you don’t, well… be prepared to pay up. ​

jog on
duc

 

[bux2000]

Zelensky's suit still looked like war dress to me @bux2000.

Yes well my small moment of optimism seems now very out of place when you read the posts by the people here with a better handle on the world and what is happening in it than I.
I must admit to watching some of George Galloway podcasts. although he can at times be a bit deep and I don't always agree with his views he is very entertaining. He described the world leaders that flew in to meet with Trump at the Whitehouse as the "7 Dwarfs of Europe, each of their own private jet" ...yeh I know I was probably drunk at the time......maybe the only reason I thought it to be humorous.

It reminded me of a time which seems to now be in a parallel universe when in 2017 we flew to Europe via a stop over in Sydney. Someone told us if we ever had a just chance to fly Business we would never go back.
Anyway as we came onto the plane and were escorted to our seat, a hot coffee was balanced close to my seat. I saw someone in a pilots uniform disappearing into the toilet. That person returned quite quickly in civies a suit bag over his shoulder.

We starting talking as he retrieved his coffee. He seemed a little animated as he explained he had just flown in, piloting the two tone Gold Airbus he pointed to across the runway. He told me it belonged to then current UE President who had just flown in to spend the next week or so in Sydney to buy a few horses at the Thoroughbred Sales. He then got on to the opulence of the interior of the plane and the luxury travel it's passengers enjoy.

He himself was flying back to the shores of Lake Geneva to await the call for him and the crew to return to fly the Airbus to its next destination.

The anticipation I had, mixed with "is it going to be worth it" regarding the cost of my business class seat suddenly became infinitesimal.

Anyway the couple of gold coins and the half kilo of silver tucked under the fence post down the back of the farm, perhaps may one day allow me to fly Business once again.

All the best

bux

 

[Sean K]

Yes well my small moment of optimism seems now very out of place when you read the posts by the people here with a better handle on the world and what is happening in it than I.
I must admit to watching some of George Galloway podcasts. although he can at times be a bit deep and I don't always agree with his views he is very entertaining. He described the world leaders that flew in to meet with Trump at the Whitehouse as the "7 Dwarfs of Europe, each of their own private jet" ...yeh I know I was probably drunk at the time......maybe the only reason I thought it to be humorous.

It reminded me of a time which seems to now be in a parallel universe when in 2017 we flew to Europe via a stop over in Sydney. Someone told us if we ever had a just chance to fly Business we would never go back.
Anyway as we came onto the plane and were escorted to our seat, a hot coffee was balanced close to my seat. I saw someone in a pilots uniform disappearing into the toilet. That person returned quite quickly in civies a suit bag over his shoulder.

We starting talking as he retrieved his coffee. He seemed a little animated as he explained he had just flown in, piloting the two tone Gold Airbus he pointed to across the runway. He told me it belonged to then current UE President who had just flown in to spend the next week or so in Sydney to buy a few horses at the Thoroughbred Sales. He then got on to the opulence of the interior of the plane and the luxury travel it's passengers enjoy.

He himself was flying back to the shores of Lake Geneva to await the call for him and the crew to return to fly the Airbus to its next destination.

The anticipation I had, mixed with "is it going to be worth it" regarding the cost of my business class seat suddenly became infinitesimal.

Anyway the couple of gold coins and the half kilo of silver tucked under the fence post down the back of the farm, perhaps may one day allow me to fly Business once again.

All the best

bux

Best post of 2025, so far.

 

[TimeISmoney]

 

[finicky]

^^^
That's a rocket - 24 bucks? It's not even up in AUD. Just shows transient weakness in the usd.

 

[TimeISmoney]

^^^
That's a rocket - 24 bucks? It's not even up in AUD. Just shows transient weakness in the usd.

View attachment 206636

When isn't it an inverse to the USD though?

 

[qldfrog]

Just a nugget:


Still very welcome

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...ost-global-currency-usage-sources-2025-08-21/


What is not mentioned or discussed in the article is what would back a Chinese Stablecoin. Given China's capital controls, which would not be modified, the backing for a Chinese stablecoin would be gold.

So if you were wanting to use stablecoins to facilitate cross border payments, which would you rather hold:

(a) stablecoin backed by UST paper that is losing value almost on a daily basis; or
(b) stablecoin backed by gold.


Before you answer that question, some further information:







There is a typo in the above. Should read servicing debt to US.

Full:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-china-to-convert-dollar-loans-into-yuan-debt

So where would China obtain the necessary USD to pay down the USD loans? Particularly given that China has stopped holding UST for trade surplus since 2014?




Full:https://www.ft.com/content/110cb4cc-9096-43d6-807c-2c361aa69140


They would simply borrow the USD.


But given the following, why would China do this?





This goes back to the US confiscating Russian assets at the start of the war in Ukraine.

The US has long weaponised the USD via UST and SWIFT through the Eurodollar system to exert political control worldwide. By confiscating the Russian UST, the US crossed the Rubicon and accelerated the move back to gold as the world's reserve asset.




The US meanwhile are desperately looking to prop up their UST market with a new buyer to replace the BRICS who no longer buy UST as a reserve asset.

The use of a US stablecoin backed by UST is a new way to maintain dollar hegemony.

China and the US are at war.

As such, China is willing to take a loss on the interest rate differential, but tie Kenya and then others, into the BRICS monetary system.



Which China now gains influence over.


Of course there is one further added bonus:

For China to pay the US debt, if in extremis, China prints Yuan, sells that Yuan to buy USD and weakens the Yuan vs USD making the Yuan even more competitive as against the USD.

Which is an issue as the US must weaken the USD. Too strong a USD and the Treasury market blows up, which we have seen something like 7 times in the last 2yrs.


Coming the full circle back to stablecoins and pure speculation:

Now that China has entered this 'market', what if it is successful? The demand for UST backed stablecoins falls away?

What if the US said, fine, we issue stablecoins backed by Bitcoin?


So gold






So that is 216,265,000 kilograms of gold.




As opposed to (ultimately) 21,000,000 BTC.

So the US would need to get the price of BTC up by 10X to make it equivalent.


The issue of course is getting the price to 10X from present prices.

High demand for stablecoins = high demand for backing asset = price rises of the backing asset.

There is probably a significant value to be had in being the first mover in this.

Gold has a significant advantage because it is:

(a) price suppressed for decades; and
(b) is already used in trade as a settlement reserve asset.

Which means that its true value is already much higher and will therefore move to that higher price quite easily, whereas BTC is untested in this area.

To date, BTC value has been gained simply through the greater fool theory. Buy and hold (hodl).

Now this is where divisibility becomes a potential issue.

Gold functionally can break down from kilos to ounces to half-ounces to grams. After that it becomes impractical to physically divide it much below grams.

BTC being digital can go to ) 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000001 easily and beyond. In practical terms, an unlimited supply. This goes against the mantra advanced by adherents of a limited supply.

However I accept that this is necessary if BTC is actually to be used as a reserve asset. As long as the price rise is market based there are no issues.


However, the whole speculative argument is moot.

The US cannot actually back stablecoins with BTC.

The reason that stablecoins became a thing is because Bessent needs to issue more debt and he needs a buyer in size to buy the debt. To be able to buy the volume of debt, the US needs to goose the BTC price higher, hence the ponzi like nature of the price rise in BTC.

China are entering the stablecoin market simply because they are at war with the US and this counteracts the play by Bessent and Treasury.






Remember, US stablecoins will hold UST paper that has 0.00% yield, same as gold.

Which would you rather hold?



jog on
duc

 

[Bailxtrader]

Markets Face Major Risk of Liquidity Dry-Up | GoldBroker.com

We are at a turning point. Markets are behaving as if the liquidity party could last forever, even though the hidden reserve that supported it has disappeared. And it is precisely this kind of configuration that paves the way for the mos...

goldbroker.com

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So we have just had the anniversary of Nixon closing the gold window in August 1971.




It shows that SPX priced in gold is down 21% since Nixon closed the gold window in August 1971. Purists would (rightfully) say that “this does not show S&P 500 Total Return (i.e., does include reinvested dividends)”, which is a fair critique. However, that critique also implies that:

a) Dividends matter greatly over the long term.

b) A portfolio of 80% gold with a 20% in 2y USTs with interest reinvested and rebalanced likely have performed competitively v. the S&P 500 Total Return since Nixon closed the gold window…which is contrary to most investors’ belief.

c) The currency in which you store your wealth matters greatly, and gold > USDs over time, esp. when US Federal debt and global sovereign debt is high.



jog on
duc

 

[finicky]

While anticipating a breakout in gold above US$3,500 in 2025 Market Matters plans to 'fade' that breakout in its p/f holdings, which to my belief are GOLD and EVN mainly.
Not my intent fwiw - no plan to sell the metal and will likely do minimal trimming of gold miners, might reduce NST. Sit through a crash or correction in this sector.

Gold Spot ($US/oz)

"Gold advanced over $US35 on Friday enjoying the dovish commentary from Jerome Powell, major global gold ETFs posted fresh highs with the Vaneck Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) now up over 16% month-to-date – a very different tale to most local names. After consolidating for the last few months, we are looking for gold to push up through $US3500, but in line with our commentary, through 2025 MM is more likely to fade the move, reducing our exposure to precious metals, instead of buying the breakout.

• Gold appears poised to break above $US3500 in the coming weeks/months, but we wouldn’t chase such a move

MM remains bullish towards gold in the medium term"

Macro Monday: Jerome Powell set to propel the ASX to new highs - Market Matters

Macro Monday: Jerome Powell set to propel the ASX to new highs Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations

marketmatters.com.au

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

While anticipating a breakout in gold above US$3,500 in 2025 Market Matters plans to 'fade' that breakout in its p/f holdings, which to my belief are GOLD and EVN mainly.
Not my intent fwiw - no plan to sell the metal and will likely do minimal trimming of gold miners, might reduce NST. Sit through a crash or correction in this sector.

Gold Spot ($US/oz)

"Gold advanced over $US35 on Friday enjoying the dovish commentary from Jerome Powell, major global gold ETFs posted fresh highs with the Vaneck Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) now up over 16% month-to-date – a very different tale to most local names. After consolidating for the last few months, we are looking for gold to push up through $US3500, but in line with our commentary, through 2025 MM is more likely to fade the move, reducing our exposure to precious metals, instead of buying the breakout.

• Gold appears poised to break above $US3500 in the coming weeks/months, but we wouldn’t chase such a move

MM remains bullish towards gold in the medium term"

Macro Monday: Jerome Powell set to propel the ASX to new highs - Market Matters

Macro Monday: Jerome Powell set to propel the ASX to new highs Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations

marketmatters.com.au

Mate, you've waited this long. Hang in a bit longer maybe. The world is run by a proper madman now and real thugs run the smaller countries. e.g. Putin, Netanyahu, the little Saudi Prince MBS and other brutes.

There will be massive movement of people, war, pestilence and hunger. Some daft bastard in Washington may revalue the POG up to get them out of their multi trillion debt hole. And even without that where else are you going to put your money? Banks are proper thieves and may be regulated. Bitcoin and AI may last until the lights go out. OR may not.

Gold Gold Gold.

gg

Although I've had a look at the NST chart and it's a 50/50 decision whether to stay in or get out.

gg

 

[finicky]

@Garpal Gumnut pretty mucn my attitude. Won't be selling my metal account, might trim a bit off gold miners if they go crazy with regard to valuation. I live in anticipation of a crash that will hit gold investments as well but will just sit it out.

 

[bux2000]

I have been little busy lately and not been able to spend time around ASF.
I was hoping to see if the clock in the @Garpal Gumnut Bentley was still ticking.
I am unable to see anything about it or him so it suddenly dawned on me..... I am blocked.
Oh dear

All the very best and may all your problems be little ones.

bux

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sorry @bux2000. I’ve no idea why you are on ignore. Off it again. All the best.

gg

 

[bux2000]

No problem at all, very nice to see the clock ticks strongly.

All the best

bux

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

No problem at all, very nice to see the clock ticks strongly.

All the best

bux

You can run but you cannot hide.

gg