Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Electric cars?

Would you buy an electric car?

  • Already own one

    Votes: 7 3.8%
  • Yes - would definitely buy

    Votes: 43 23.6%
  • Yes - preferred over petrol car if price/power/convenience similar

    Votes: 75 41.2%
  • Maybe - preference for neither, only concerned with costs etc

    Votes: 34 18.7%
  • No - prefer petrol car even if electric car has same price, power and convenience

    Votes: 21 11.5%
  • No - would never buy one

    Votes: 12 6.6%

  • Total voters
    182
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Only if we actually make a major component here IMO.
If we made the batteries, it would probably sway some manufacturers, but most of our steel processing and materials processing has shut down in the last 30 years, so we would probably struggle to supply enough materials to make cars for our domestic consumption.
Let alone enough to export any great number, but if we have to import the battery packs, the sheet steel, the material for the upholstery then pay assembly line workers $100k/PA if you include annual leave, sickies, super, long service etc.
I just can't see a viable reason to do it here, when say Hyundai sells 100,000 cars here a year, much easier to make them in Singapore/Korea ship 5million to Asia and 100k to Australia.
If you look at it purely commercially you are right, but in an uncertain world with uncertain supply lines, there is advantage in having a national manufacturing capacity because there will be spin-offs into other areas.
 

JohnDe

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Australia would have to open up & increase immigration to be able to have enough workers for a large automotive industry, and all the other industries required to supply batteries and so on. Plus the workers required to keep the rest of the economy going.

It would be great such an industry, but it is not going to happen without a major manufacturer being involved. Which won’t happen by the traditional automotive manufacturers, because they are already stretched too thin.

The Chinese industry could do it but that’s never going to happen.

Only Tesla has the funds and growth necessary to open new factories.
 
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In principle I'm 100% in favour of manufacturing things in Australia.

In practice we'd need a massive change of mindset to make it work.

There are some exceptions, for example Incat has been a technological leader in catamaran ferries for a very long time now as evidenced by the company's ships having held the transatlantic crossing record continuously since 1990. The only thing that's beaten them, twice, was another Incat ship.

That's an exception not the norm however and we'd need a huge cultural shift to make manufacturing a goer in Australia.

At the government and broad society level we need to put technical and "doing" things back up on a pedestal.

At the management and worker level we need vision, actual leadership and a "can do" approach.

The big problem with our previous car industry being twofold:

1. Management and workers collectively couldn't get their act together. Blunt but it has to be said. Even Toyota, with state of the art manufacturing plant, couldn't achieve in Australia what's taken for granted overseas.

2. Management of Ford and Holden simply clung to building product that wasn't what the market wants anymore.

End result is the writing was firmly on the wall decades before the final shutdown. :2twocents
 
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In principle I'm 100% in favour of manufacturing things in Australia.

In practice we'd need a massive change of mindset to make it work.

There are some exceptions, for example Incat has been a technological leader in catamaran ferries for a very long time now as evidenced by the company's ships having held the transatlantic crossing record continuously since 1990. The only thing that's beaten them, twice, was another Incat ship.

That's an exception not the norm however and we'd need a huge cultural shift to make manufacturing a goer in Australia.

At the government and broad society level we need to put technical and "doing" things back up on a pedestal.

At the management and worker level we need vision, actual leadership and a "can do" approach.

The big problem with our previous car industry being twofold:

1. Management and workers collectively couldn't get their act together. Blunt but it has to be said. Even Toyota, with state of the art manufacturing plant, couldn't achieve in Australia what's taken for granted overseas.

2. Management of Ford and Holden simply clung to building product that wasn't what the market wants anymore.

End result is the writing was firmly on the wall decades before the final shutdown. :2twocents
And this week we closed our last white paper facility in Australia.
So if we can not make an A4 sheet from our wood pulp exported overseas, how the hell are we going to be able to build batteries and even less cars.
We are at the tech level of a 3rd world country engineering wise.we were not but we are..a few niches like mining and yes incat..but anything else?
Stop dreaming.i do not like this in any way but these are the facts and this will not change with 20$ oer hour min wages, 1m dollar average house,NDIS and 50% tax rate, bloated local gov and red / green tape.
Seriously,would you start a business here if it does not have to be located in Oz
Sorry I forgot about atlassian our new energy company 😭
 

JohnDe

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In principle I'm 100% in favour of manufacturing things in Australia.

In practice we'd need a massive change of mindset to make it work.

There are some exceptions, for example Incat has been a technological leader in catamaran ferries for a very long time now as evidenced by the company's ships having held the transatlantic crossing record continuously since 1990. The only thing that's beaten them, twice, was another Incat ship.

That's an exception not the norm however and we'd need a huge cultural shift to make manufacturing a goer in Australia.

At the government and broad society level we need to put technical and "doing" things back up on a pedestal.

At the management and worker level we need vision, actual leadership and a "can do" approach.

The big problem with our previous car industry being twofold:

1. Management and workers collectively couldn't get their act together. Blunt but it has to be said. Even Toyota, with state of the art manufacturing plant, couldn't achieve in Australia what's taken for granted overseas.

2. Management of Ford and Holden simply clung to building product that wasn't what the market wants anymore.

End result is the writing was firmly on the wall decades before the final shutdown. :2twocents

"2. Management of Ford and Holden simply clung to building product that wasn't what the market wants anymore."


Actually, Ford did have a product that the market wanted. It was called the Ford Territory. It was Car of the Year; it also was the number one in sales for the first few years. Consumers liked it and wanted it. Ford Australia's problem was that it was not allowed to create an overseas market for it, and quality control was a major issue.

Holden did not have its own SUV like Ford did with the Territory, but they did have a deal with GM USA to export a significant number of rebadged Commodore's, and they also had major design contracts for GM. The VF Commodore received a major update, the Camaro used the VF's underpinnings. But then the GFC hit, GM went into bankruptcy, the US government had to bail them out, GM had to sell or close their overseas plants, the Holden export contract was cut significantly, and so on.

The Labor governments Button car plan was a start at strengthening the car industry and preparing for a vehicle export industry similar to other countries. It could have worked, with a bit more tweaking and foresight from leaders of industry and others.
 

JohnDe

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And this week we closed our last white paper facility in Australia.
So if we can not make an A4 sheet from our wood pulp exported overseas, how the hell are we going to be able to build batteries and even less cars.
We are at the tech level of a 3rd world country engineering wise.we were not but we are..a few niches like mining and yes incat..but anything else?
Stop dreaming.i do not like this in any way but these are the facts and this will not change with 20$ oer hour min wages, 1m dollar average house,NDIS and 50% tax rate, bloated local gov and red / green tape.
Seriously,would you start a business here if it does not have to be located in Oz
Sorry I forgot about atlassian our new energy company 😭

Has Opal closed up for business?

Opal Australian Paper has a proud history in local paper manufacturing. The Maryvale Mill opened in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley in 1937 and has since grown to be one of the largest employers in the region, manufacturing close to 600,000 tonnes of paper and board annually. Opal Australian Paper is a vertically integrated manufacturer of pulp and paper, and Australia’s only manufacturer of copy, printing and inkjet papers, and bag, sack, and industrial papers.
 
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For those who worry about EV range anxiety the below information (from the International Council on Clean Transportation) for America and Germany, which has similar percentages to Australia, puts typical daily commutes into perspective:
1674598320994.png

Put another way, given most Australian BEVs have a range over 300km - mine comfortably does 400km - 98 people in 100 could own an EV and only ever need to charge it at home, overnight.
The other 2% or more will be Tesla owners and they don't suffer range anxiety anyway ;).
 
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I have suffered range anxiety for the thirty years or so I have been a pilot.
Pretty much every flight I have ever made revolves around where I can get fuel within a hundred kms of my direct route.
There are not a lot of airports that sell avgas.
So having now got a BYD, we adopt similar strategy, though cut the diversion from 100k's to 10.
We have made five trips to Melbourne and back with adding an extra 20% of range at a fast charger that is virtually on the ring road at Cooper street. This is our go to stop, as the toilets are generally clean and coffee is not recycled dishwater.
But there are other options.
Next month, we are planning on driving to Newcastle, which should be slightly more challenging.
Hopefully by then it should be easier as the school holidays are over and most folk will have gone back to work.
Mick
 
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I have suffered range anxiety for the thirty years or so I have been a pilot.
Pretty much every flight I have ever made revolves around where I can get fuel within a hundred kms of my direct route.
There are not a lot of airports that sell avgas.
So having now got a BYD, we adopt similar strategy, though cut the diversion from 100k's to 10.
We have made five trips to Melbourne and back with adding an extra 20% of range at a fast charger that is virtually on the ring road at Cooper street. This is our go to stop, as the toilets are generally clean and coffee is not recycled dishwater.
But there are other options.
Next month, we are planning on driving to Newcastle, which should be slightly more challenging.
Hopefully by then it should be easier as the school holidays are over and most folk will have gone back to work.
Mick

What is your point of origin ?

I don't think it's just 'range anxiety', availability of charging points and waiting time is also an issue.
 

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I wonder if it's possible that as the takeup of EV's increase, petrol is suddenly going to be cheap again and sales of petrol engine vehicles will increase.

If the lawmakers allow it that is.
I do t think so, the price of oil is based on supply and demand, and supply is depended on price.

What I mean is, oil can definitely drop in price for a while, but as soon as it looks like it will be “cheap” for a sustained period new investment is slowed or stopped, until the price rises again.

So the oil price will correct itself to any level of demand fairly quickly, because to sustain production requires large regular investments, and the operation of certain high cost production sources.
 
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What I mean is, oil can definitely drop in price for a while, but as soon as it looks like it will be “cheap” for a sustained period new investment is slowed or stopped, until the price rises again.

Yes, but if oil producers realise that EVs are a long term threat to their business, won't they try and sell their oil stocks as quickly as they can in case there is no demand in the future ?

In other words if it's likely that the oil price will never rise again they have no choice but to sell at cheaper prices.
 

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Yes, but if oil producers realise that EVs are a long term threat to their business, won't they try and sell their oil stocks as quickly as they can in case there is no demand in the future ?

In other words if it's likely that the oil price will never rise again they have no choice but to sell at cheaper prices.
It doesn’t really work like that, their is limits to how fast oil can be pumped out of the ground, and as oil wells mature, the speed slows down.

So maximum daily oil production from all the existing tapped wells is pretty much fixed, and it’s in steady decline of about 8% per year unless new investments are made regularly.

If the oil price is $40 / barrel, and the cost of a new well is projected to be $45 / barrel, no one is going to fund that new well. Otherwise they will be losing $5 / barrel.
 

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My POO is the Goulburn Valley in Northern Victoria.
Just out of range of a there and back trip.
Mick
Do you think that even with stopping to add the extra 20% or so you need to get home during those trips but charging at home the rest of the time still saves you more time than having to visit petrol stations on the regular?

I think it does with me, I worked out that with a petrol car I would be spending about 8 hours a year at petrol stations. So dropping into EV chargers a few times a year isn’t a big deal, especially if it’s during a road trip where you are utilising the charge time to take care of other things such a bodily functions.
 
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Do you think that even with stopping to add the extra 20% or so you need to get home during those trips but charging at home the rest of the time still saves you more time than having to visit petrol stations on the regular?

I think it does with me, I worked out that with a petrol car I would be spending about 8 hours a year at petrol stations. So dropping into EV chargers a few times a year isn’t a big deal, especially if it’s during a road trip where you are utilising the charge time to take care of other things such a bodily functions.
I really don't care about saving money on charging versus petrol/versus capital cost etc, nor do I think I am saving the planet.
I put Solar panels and batteries on my house, not to save money, but as an insurance.
it will probably take thirty years to pay off the cost of the installation, but as an insurance against blackouts/brownouts it is invaluable.
We have already been through at least four blackouts uninterrupted since they were installed.
I have no idea how many brownouts we missed, cos we no longer notice them.
Likewise, I bought an electric car for the insurance.
Thanks to the stupidity of economists, politicians, bureacrats and ecologists, I could see a time when petrol and/or diesel was not available at any cost.
The electric car, with the ability to be run from our solar panels overcomes that potential problem.
I am always happy to pay for convenience.
I have a installed a long range tank in my ute that gives my anywhere from 1100 to 1200 kms range.
We take it if there may be a level of difficulty/inconvenience with taking my wife's BYD.
You get very little range anxiety with it.
Mick
 
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The chart below highlights the importance of support policies for EV adoption:
1674599263219.png

Both the EU and China are streets ahead of their target adoption rates, while America remains a laggard, like Australia.
Interestingly, China's EV sales in December were responsible for one in three passenger car purchases, suggesting ICEVs are quickly going out of fashion. Unlike Australia, Chinese buyers have EV options starting at AU$8K so affordability is not much of a constraint.
With Tesla ramping output in Germany, America and China in 2023, and BYD believing they can come close to doubling 2022 output, S&P Global Mobility's forecast of 10 million EV sales this year is probably pessimistic. Neither GM nor Ford, nor most Japanese automakers have dented EV stats to date, so strong future year EV growth seems assured as they all play catch-up.

On the question of ICEV manufacturing profitability, we already have them with excess stock and constantly dwindling sales. They all need to race to the bottom to sell their offerings as competition will get increasingly fierce. When you look at the existing debt levels of legacy automakers it's a stretch to think they can all survive the transition to EVs as many - especially the Japanese - are too far behind.
 

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I really don't care about saving money on charging versus petrol/versus capital cost etc, nor do I think I am saving the planet.
I put Solar panels and batteries on my house, not to save money, but as an insurance.
it will probably take thirty years to pay off the cost of the installation, but as an insurance against blackouts/brownouts it is invaluable.
We have already been through at least four blackouts uninterrupted since they were installed.
I have no idea how many brownouts we missed, cos we no longer notice them.
Likewise, I bought an electric car for the insurance.
Thanks to the stupidity of economists, politicians, bureacrats and ecologists, I could see a time when petrol and/or diesel was not available at any cost.
The electric car, with the ability to be run from our solar panels overcomes that potential problem.
I am always happy to pay for convenience.
I have a installed a long range tank in my ute that gives my anywhere from 1100 to 1200 kms range.
We take it if there may be a level of difficulty/inconvenience with taking my wife's BYD.
You get very little range anxiety with it.
Mick
My comment was about saving time, not money.
 

JohnDe

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There's been a debate about whether Tesla is just a car company or a software car company, maybe this will help answer the question -

Sony and Honda’s ‘Afeela’ wants to transform the car cockpit

Japanese giants Sony and Honda have joined forces to launch a new electric vehicle brand, Afeela, with a production prototype recently unveiled at the CES 2023 technology trade show in Las Vegas.

The EV brand will be a joint venture for the newly christened Sony Honda Mobility, with the company’s first prototype, a stylish hatchback based on previous Sony-designed EV concept cars.

Although no details have been released regarding the car’s driving range, top speed, battery or electric motors, its size indicates it will enter the marketplace as a direct competitor to the top-selling Tesla Model 3.

Sony Honda Mobility is highlighting the car’s technological advancements and focusing on the cockpit experience, and its yet-to-be-finalised autonomous-driving systems allowing for the possibility of in-car entertainment content to be sold to owners via a subscription service.

Like many forward-looking car companies, Afeela sees a future in which the car will become a living space rather than just a form of transport; one in which we can watch screens and be sold content and fed advertising.

The company’s chief executive, Yasuhide Mizuno, says Sony Honda Mobility has set its sights firmly on technological innovation.

“We aim to revolutionise the mobility space as a mobility tech company, alongside like-minded people who are pioneering a new future with creativity through cutting-edge technology,” Mr Mizuno said.

“We have reached an inflection point where the elements of a car are shifting from power and performance to software, networks, and user experiences.

“We want to think outside of the box to revisit the underlying philosophy of vehicle design.”

6265cfba2b5dcc9c71ccf0f4ec51c8a4.jpg The interior of the Afeela

One of those innovations will be in-car graphics created by the ‘Unreal Engine’ 3-D creation tool from Epic Games, the maker of the Fortnite and Mortal Kombat series of games.

“We aim to evolve mobility space into entertainment and emotional space, by seamlessly integrating real and virtual worlds, and exploring new entertainment possibilities through digital innovations such as the metaverse,” Mr Mizuno said.

The Afeela prototype is also equipped with 45 interior and exterior cameras and sensors, as well as an advanced ‘Snapdragon’ computer processor from electronics hardware company Qualcomm.

Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon says his company’s technology will play a key role in Afeela’s tech-heavy EVs.

“The car is becoming increasingly connected and intelligent, and how we experience our vehicles is changing,” Mr Amon said. “The Snapdragon Digital Chassis serves as the foundation for next-generation software-defined vehicles, enabling new mobility experiences and services.”

Other highlights of the car include an exterior ‘media bar’, which allows the car to express itself to surrounding people using light, cloud-service connectivity and intuitive navigation through augmented reality (AR).

Although no price has been announced, Mr Mizuno says the Afeela EV prototype, which will be built at a factory in North America, will be sold at “a premium”.

“We anticipate starting to take pre-orders in the first half of 2025. The first shipment will be delivered to customers in North America starting March 2026,” Mizuno said.
 
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I really don't care about saving money on charging versus petrol/versus capital cost etc, nor do I think I am saving the planet.
I put Solar panels and batteries on my house, not to save money, but as an insurance.
it will probably take thirty years to pay off the cost of the installation, but as an insurance against blackouts/brownouts it is invaluable.
We have already been through at least four blackouts uninterrupted since they were installed.
I have no idea how many brownouts we missed, cos we no longer notice them.
Likewise, I bought an electric car for the insurance.
Thanks to the stupidity of economists, politicians, bureacrats and ecologists, I could see a time when petrol and/or diesel was not available at any cost.
The electric car, with the ability to be run from our solar panels overcomes that potential problem.
I am always happy to pay for convenience.
I have a installed a long range tank in my ute that gives my anywhere from 1100 to 1200 kms range.
We take it if there may be a level of difficulty/inconvenience with taking my wife's BYD.
You get very little range anxiety with it.
Mick
exactly why I see myself with an EV, I know enough maths to understand it is NOT economic however you twist it, as for saving the planet, let's all have a good laugh.. but with the clowns in charge, we will be forced that way;
The issue is that we want first to move to our final home, and even with 4 to 6 home visits a week, we have not found it yet
And there is no way I will fork the $50k or so to be off the grid, to move within 3 months!!
once off the grid, the Ev becomes an extra rechargeable battery for surplus solar and that should let us power the runabout for post offfice shopping and coffee runs..byd in mind
 
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