Agreed so far as financial markets are concerned.I still think we'll push the -20% mark on the markets just due to narrative and fear but would be very surprised if it's not fully recovered within 12 months.
I see that France has now reached 100 infections.Although I find the reported numbers of infected in Japan as strangely low and not increasing with the same speed as we are seeing in South Korea and other parts of world which to me is a little suspect.
I see that France has now reached 100 infections.
I'm not French, only ever been there as a tourist, but I'd put a fair bit of faith in their numbers given they're a developed country and have no obvious reason why they'd want to hide it. Point being they're having a fairly rapid increase as are many places.
For the others, well Iran has ongoing tensions with the US and allies so I guess it's possible that their figures could be skewed either by lack of adequate medical equipment or by political factors. Possible, I can't prove it, just noting the circumstances there could create some difficulties.
South Korea and Italy both are reporting fairly large numbers and both presumably have the means to do it fairly accurately.
The good news though is that 48% of cases are now recovered including 11 out of 25 in Australia. Bad news = 2978 reported deaths including 1 in Australia so the death rate's at 3.43% globally.
Just for those that think this is not bad, not like the flu etc, a few simple numbers....
Australia has just 2000 ICU beds. Serious cases of Coronavirus are running at about 15% with 5% critical. You would need one of those beds if serious, and probably intubated and ventilated if critical, which is a subset of available ICU beds.
A city like Melbourne or Sydney would have about 400 ICU beds each. If each of those cities gets just 3,000 cases, ie less than 6 people in every 10,000, then all the ICU beds would be fully occupied. This would allow none for serious car accidents, heart attacks etc.
This virus is spread by aerosols and can be spread by asymptomatic carriers, plus it's possible to be re-infected like the Japanese tourist guide, and reports of it happening in China.
It is not the flu nor SARS, yet our health care administrators are treating it poorly. The health salon on the Gold Coast where the beautician brought the virus back from Iran, is a classic case of generals fighting the last war. They have tested and observed all the other staff at the salon to be clear of the virus (currently), but instead of putting them in quarantine, are allowing them to circulate. To me that is an unbelievably naive decision, given evidence coming in from all over the world.
When, not if governments realise they have been incorrect with their stance on this virus, they are likely to over-react IMHO, just like in China. Our hospitals will be swamped with a very small proportion of the population getting this virus.
The economic dislocation of this virus is already massive and likely to get much worse before it gets better. The peak of disruption is still probably weeks or months away.
So when the security procedures are relaxed is going to be paramount, to those who are hanging tough.
Sounds obvious, but cash at hand or redraw facilities, quoted in the last financial statements become much more pertinent.
I see your point..but I wonder ?
How far will a business go to stay solvent if it believes there are months of closure, supply chain problems whatever ?
Most of us know from experience there are a number of operations that just close up shop to drop creditors, bank debts and income tax liability. I wonder how many legit businesses will draw down accumulated savings and owners equity before pulling the pin ? Be interesting to see.
everyone needs to pool together and take haircuts together to survive imo
I see your point..but I wonder ?
How far will a business go to stay solvent if it believes there are months of closure, supply chain problems whatever ?
Dr Robertson said the man's family was also able to speak to him on Saturday night by phone or through the glass in the isolation unit before he died this morning. He said no members of the public had been put at risk by the man's diagnosis.
"He was identified very early on, when he was on the flight back from the Diamond Princess, he was put in isolation, he was transferred to us, and obviously placed in isolation on arrival. "He's been managed in isolation ever since … there's no risk to the general community or to staff.
Just not sure how many the system can deal with. No wonder all attempts are to prevent it getting a hold. Wonder what the winter season will bring? (Coincidence that the virus started and spread Nov/ Dec in nth hemisphere?)"He was in a negative pressure room and then in intensive care and they were very confident that the protection equipment they were using was more than adequate
Look, I love the first world health system we have here. Once you get past ED, care is, in my experience, exemplary. But I recognise the cost constraints.
With the recent death in Perth, Australia's first ( he came off the Diamond Princess) the care over seven days was thus:
-Careflight from Darwin to Perth
-Hospitalised in isolation
- ICU isolationunit, in a negative pressure room
Just not sure how many the system can deal with. No wonder all attempts are to prevent it getting a hold. Wonder what the winter season will bring? (Coincidence that the virus started and spread Nov/ Dec in nth hemisphere?)
It is a natural time of year for flu to break out in he northern hemisphere. Until proven otherwise this was a natural occurrence just like all the plagues and viruses that have occurred in the millennia's before it.
I'm no doctor but my observation is that there's stuff all spare capacity in the system so even a modest increase in demand amounts to an emergency situation.I don think our(NZ&AUS) health care systems will handle this well, from what I have seen living in both countries, they will get maxed out very quickly.
I'm no doctor but my observation is that there's stuff all spare capacity in the system so even a modest increase in demand amounts to an emergency situation.
The U.S would need 6000 deaths within 4 months just to match 1/10th of the annual flu season.
There seems to be a mismatch of human reaction to numbers in my interpretation.
I still think we'll push the -20% mark on the markets just due to narrative and fear but would be very surprised if it's not fully recovered within 12 months.
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