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Dump it Here

Discussion in 'Beginner's Lounge' started by Skate, Dec 17, 2018.

  1. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Up date

    He ended up the the much younger girl.
    She hooked up with the guy she was engaged to
    before she married the current one.

    She is over the moon and a different person.
    He is teaching her English!

    I know who is happiest.
     
    JimmyJames80, Skate and cynic like this.
  2. Skate

    Skate

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    1A. CAM TOP Larger Update Trading Report.jpg

    2. CAM BOTTOM Trading Report.jpg

    Skate.
     
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  3. captain black

    captain black

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    Nice pop this week Mr Skate, well ahead of target now :)
     
  4. Skate

    Skate

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    It’s unusual
    It's rare that members supply details of their trading account let alone the methodology used in their trading system. I have a few systems being traded at the moment & one of those systems is my HYBRID strategy.

    Screen Capture
    I've posted in detail about the HYBRID strategy & I'm prepared to post a screen capture of the "Open profits" from the last 7 months. The CommSec trading screen capture is as of today 20th July 2019. Traders using CommSec as their broker would know this format & graphic without a required explanation. (The full list of my positions are omitted)

    Share Holdings Summary Chart
    The Share Holdings Summary Chart displays some of my current positions. As there are some of my positions shown in the chart below I’m prepared to list the 'open profit percentages' as some may be interested.

    HYBRID Open Profits - 20th July Open Profits Capture.jpg

    Percentage returns for the current "Open Positions" listed above

    PET +213.90%
    IEL +20.78%
    PME +114.00%
    SLR +96.88%
    Z1P +88.58%
    JIN +88.14%
    AQG +69.05%
    MFG +61.33%
    FMG +51.00%
    GOR +54.67%
    RRL +31.29%
    ASL +28.61%

    Confirmation of results
    Back on the 19th December 2018 @Wyatt asked if I was in 100% Cash, which I confirmed I was. I was sitting on the side lines waiting for the next big move. Early in January 2019 the move was on & the HYBRID strategy started to pump out buy signals so I set about filling those 40 position.

    FYI
    The HYBRID Strategy is a weekly 40 position portfolio trading $25K positions.

    Trading Results (open profits)
    The CommSec screen capture of the "Open Profits" of the HYBRID Strategy is $200,850 (it's travelling along quite nicely)

    Trading Results (open & closed profits)
    Trading has been kind to me since January 2019. My actual trading results exceeds the current 'open profits' shown in the screen capture as my actual profit includes "closed profits" as well during this 7 month trading period. (January 2019 to 19th July 2019)

    Why make this post
    1. It confirms I actively trade.
    2. It also confirms that I practice what I preach (if there is a "Doubting Thomas" out there) &
    3. The HYBRID Strategy trades a 7 figure amount.

    This weeks results
    The Hybrid picked up $18,595 this week & the CAM strategy picked up another $13,298 - not a bad week at all.

    Skate.
     
  5. Newt

    Newt

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    Thanks so much for sharing this Skate. I remember being greatly inspired as to what was possible from a skilful trader or value investor reading posts by Peter2 and craft years ago. The spirit of the info you've shared, along with Zaxon's recent thread, gives those willing to put in the hard yards a glimse as to what is possible. Possible after some years of hard yakka and learning about one's own psychology. It hasn't always been easier to find this sort of info on ASF - kudos for firing up systematic trading discussion through the last 12 months.

    Question - Will those figures also represent your Open + Closed profits for the last 7 months, based on the expectation you reinvest and rebalance on each closed position, and presumably are currently fully invested?
     
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  6. Skate

    Skate

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    @Newt, thanks for accepting that I've posted my results in the spirit of inspiring others, the very essence of the 'Dump it Here' thread.

    Answers to your questions
    1. "Will those figures also represent your Open + Closed profits for the last 7 months" ?
    NO - those figures are just my current open position - If you add my closed positions profits to that figure the results are much, much better. I didn't post my yearly results in @Zaxon's thread as sometimes it can be interpreted as puffing ones owns ability. For the record - My yearly results lie somewhere between @peter2 & @captain black results.
    2. "based on the expectation you reinvest and rebalance on each closed position, and presumably are currently fully invested" ?
    YES - I am fully invested but the HYBRID strategy has outgrown all my trading rules resulting in starting another strategy. The CAM strategy has now been added to the stable of systems being traded.

    Your Statement
    "It hasn't always been easier to find this sort of info on ASF - kudos for firing up systematic trading discussion through the last 12 months"
    Thank you for the credit but I'm the one inspired by other members posting their trading journey on a Friday evening, it's so refreshing to read posts about trading the reason why we visit the 'ASF' community every day.

    Stay with me
    I'll make another post tonight, a story that others may find inspiring or just an enjoy reading. It's about a member who reached out to me back in December 2018 asking for my help.

    Skate.
     
  7. Skate

    Skate

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    @Newt - The Story
    Back in December 2018 an ASF member asked if I would help him start trading. The usual question, (a) Why do you want to trade? (b) What do you know or understand about trading?

    A complete novice
    It didn't take long to work out he was a complete novice, the only thing he knew was 2 of his friends traded & he felt like a shag-on-a-rock when they got together discussing finances.

    Years of study
    I went on to explain it takes many years of study to learn how 'not to lose money' let alone make money at this game. Than the sh!t hit the fan - he said, "I got a lot of money saved that I can invest" - $20K (to him that was a fortune, saved over many years)

    You can lose it all - by trading
    I tried to sway him from trading explaining $20k is a lot of money but there are high cost that come with trading, one being brokers commission & many other expenses. Trading accounts under $50K makes trading so much harder. I told him that risking all his savings will be an emotional roller coaster when there is skin in the game.

    Long story - short
    He was committed & parrot phased some of my post back to me. The one that resonated with me was that he was prepared to start trading small & learn on the job. I don't know if I was impressed he read my thread or the commitment he had shown that he was prepared to learn.

    This is my post he parrot phased back to me

    Learning Curve - Practice Makes Perfect. You can learn as you go by trading small positions and if you make a mistake small loses are bearable. Making small mistakes now will give you the skills and experience you’ll need to make the right decisions later on. So don’t let fear or self-doubt keep you from getting started. The very act of getting started is much more important than getting it right.

    So I quoted some of my post back to him
    1. Rules of engagement - The Financial Markets are a Cruel, Unkind and Dangerous Playing Field, one place where the newest amateurs are generally fleeced the most brutally, usually by those who know the rules of engagement.
    2. Most traders think you can start with a small amount of money to start trading but anything less than $50k or $60K is quickly swallowed up by commission costs, the cost of doing business.
    3. If your trading strategy trades with a high frequency the commission drag will play havoc with your strategy profitability.

    My final statement to him
    The truth is, you need money to make money - forget about taking a $20,000 account and turning it into millions. That is achieved through gambling, not trading. Instead, he should look to make an average of 25% per year. Meaning the best he could hope for was a profit of $5,00 if all went to plan.

    I gave him this example
    On a $1000 account, you're looking at an average of $250 per year.
    # On a $20,000 account, you can average $5,000 per year return. (his savings account balance)
    On a $50,000 account, you're looking at an average of $12,500 per year.
    On a $80,000 account, you can average $20,000 per year return
    On a $100,000 account, you're looking at an average of $25,000 per year.
    On a $600,000 account, you're looking at an average of $150k per year.
    On a $1m account, you're looking at an average of $250k per year.

    It was a demonstration that your trading account SIZE really matters & most traders don’t get it.

    So what happened
    I had about 5 strategies in the final stages of paper trading & I said that I was prepared to offer him a steady stream of weekly signal from one of them, the worst one.

    Worst of the strategies
    He was ecstatic, so I reconfirmed it was signals from the worst strategy not from the best, I assumed he misunderstood what I was saying. He said he understood & had confidence starting out this way.

    His results
    Accepting signals from the worst strategy seemed to make no difference to him & after 7 months he has been 100% committed to trading the signals I've given him, he requests the signal every week confirming he is still interested in trading.

    Record Keeping
    I've been keeping his trading records till he got on his feet & up to speed so with his permission I'll post up his results so far, he is one happy dude (at the moment) being up $5,683 a return of 28.42% (the excitement of youth, you can't beat that)

    The MAP Strategy
    He is trading a modified version of my weekly MAP strategy.
    Start Date: 14th January 2018
    Starting Capital: $20,000
    Positions in the portfolio: 10
    Position size: $2,000

    Portfolio Capture.JPG

    Final joined line Capture.jpg

    By starting the 'Dump it here' thread has made a difference to some & modified the thinking of others making me happy.

    Skate.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2019
  8. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Your posts and a combinaison of timing (personal, not market as i moved into retirement now effective ) was much influencial in making me build my system based on your initial concept
    Furthermore, while happy with my results, I realise the drawback of not being fully invested
    I will so work on another weekly trending system with more dynamic in out, some automated stop loss able to trigger during the week, and a fully invested rule
    After all, even on a long only system and a collapsing asx, some code can still go uo like bear or negative etf
    That is the plan
    So @Skate,@tech/a ,@Zaxon ,@Newt ,@peter2 but even new entrants like @jjbinks and i forget many, your posts are not wasted and inspirational for rookies like me.
    Be proud of your contribution
     
  9. Newt

    Newt

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    Thanks for sharing that tale Skate. I wasn't expecting to hear of that kink of follow through. Your apprentice has much to be thankful for learning the essential pillars of the business like that.
    This year seems to have been an unusually kind period to trend traders, but with that kind of dedication he deserves to hang in there and profit further as life and savings allow.
     
  10. IFocus

    IFocus You are arguing with a Galah

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    Hi Skate just read your thread in full, skimmed a fair bit of it but gained some learning re weekly verses shorter time frame which I have been following on Peters thread.

    I started out actually looking for a answer to an obscure question which was "do you manually input you buy sells in the Comsec platform"......days later here I am.

    Congratulations first on the thread and its contend (rare) but also on your success after 4 years (rare) and the level you have reached in trading (rare) which is not that common long may it continue.

    Cheers
     
  11. willoneau

    willoneau

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    Hi Skate , do you close your position when it touches your trailing stop or close below?
     
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  12. Gringotts Bank

    Gringotts Bank

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    That's very good of you Skate to help out whoever it was. But just in case people get the wrong idea, it's worth repeating: success is not created by the system, money management, disclipline or the size of your starting capital. It's created by the personal energy one brings to the task.
     
  13. Skate

    Skate

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    @IFocus thanks for taking the time to read my thread in full, that's a large commitment. I hope you grabbed a copy of my free eBook because it has a purpose. Re-reading those short burst passages will condition how to think, that is the reason why the posts are written this way.

    Boxing & fighting
    I've done a lot inside & outside of the ring & trading has similar aspects to it. If my opponent would fight in slow motion I would still take on anyone. Trading weekly verses daily is much the same. Trading weekly is like boxing in slow motion, meaning you have time to 'respond' when trading is not going your way. Trading on a daily time frame you are always 'reacting' to price movements. Responding gives you time to think. So never react always respond.

    How to think
    The 'Dump it here' thread is designed to condition traders how to think, how to be aware of their emotions. Stress from trading can be hazardous to your health & certainly to your wealth. I'm a firm believer how one handles stress when trading can be the difference between being profitable or a dead set loser. You only have to read some of the words other posters use to gauge their emotions.

    Platoon Sergeant
    We have all seen it in the movies when a Platoon Sergeant shouts at the new recruits, stressing & confusing them - do you ever wonder why they are so mean, shouting loudly into their face?

    The answer
    It's so the new recruits are conditioned to handle stress from the get-go, ensuring they make calm, measured decisions under enormous stressful combat conditions, their lives will depend on it. This is the very reason why it's so important to control our emotions & stress when trading giving us the ability to make calm measured trading decision because our wealth will certainly depend on it.

    Emotions
    When trading, your emotions need to be parked at the front door. It’s sad anytime someone loses money, sometimes they can lose a fortune in such a short period of time, it can happened to anyone lacking the knowledge what the market can really do to them quick smart. Most traders focus on what the markets can do for them not what the markets can do to them. It’s reasonable that you must plan to lose & keep being the best loser you can possibly be to win at this game.

    Trading is a losers' game
    Most traders fail to realise that it’s easier to take a small loss than it is to take a big loss. As traders we must remove the emotional element as quickly as possible if our trading is to be successful.

    Don't let the markets control you
    Never let the market tell you that your position is wrong, you must decide when your position is bad & take action without exception, sell & move on as it’s critical to your success in trading. If you don't take early losses, it will becomes more difficult to take a loss as they become larger.

    You control your position
    You can’t control the market but you have full control of your position - drill that into your thinking & remember you can sell whenever YOU want to, it must become second nature to automatically do it at times to alleviate stress in your trading.

    Traders over think it
    Don’t be a ‘coulda-woulda-shoulda’ type of trader because you will need to have total control when following your trading plan. We tend to over think things when trading. Sometimes how we feel starts to become important. As a mechanical system trader it's not our job to think but to action the signals generated by our strategy. We have one job & that one job is to take the signals - whether we feel it's a good or bad move is not important.

    "I started out actually looking for a answer to an obscure question which was "do you manually input you buy sells in the Comsec platform"......days later here I am"

    Short answer
    Yes, I manually add my buy & sell positions into the CommSec website. If I didn't have this to do there would be little for me to do each week.

    "Congratulations first on the thread and its contend (rare) but also on your success after 4 years (rare) and the level you have reached in trading (rare) which is not that common long may it continue"

    3 years of study before 4 years of success
    Don't forget it had taken 3 years of full time study & extensive testing before I placed my first trade. Learning was slow & difficult to understand the culture of trading let alone coding up profitable & repeatable patterns. Without the help from @captain black I wouldn't be trading at all. Everyone needs help sometimes, while others may just need a pep talk once in awhile..

    Less than 10 minutes per week
    After all the work it now takes me less than 10 minutes per week to handle the way I trade - 3 minutes to get the end-of-week signals & another 3 minutes to place my orders. Trading is the only profession I know that makes money without consuming any of my time & it's all due to the way I trade & the systems I have in place.

    Skate.
     
  14. Skate

    Skate

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    @willoneau, I wish it was that simple - I'll answer your question succinctly & move on to how I exit a position.

    Trailing Stop exit
    I do have a wide Trailing stop & when the closing price hits the trailing stop or falls below it I exit but only if the signal is at the "close of trade" on a Friday afternoon as I trade a weekly system. A sell position is entered in the pre-auction over the weekend to secure the opening price in Mondays auction. It's a simple process - take the signal, sell & move on.

    Let's put an exit into a story (maybe its too simple)
    No one likes to be caught in a rain storm. Before leaving home if it looks like rain (cloudy skies) we prepare & carry an umbrella. With clouds & falling water droplets, confirms to us its raining & it's time for us to put up the umbrella to protect us from getting wet.

    It's the same with trading
    Exits are handled in the same way. When the momentum slows (clouds are forming) - when the sediment of players reverse their positions (water droplets) this activates a stop (putting up the umbrella) & we exit - BUT - not until the week is finished (it might be just a passing scud, who knows). At the first sign of a few droplets we wouldn't panic & run like babies for a bit of cover would we. The smarter move would be to wait & see what transpires before exiting. If we are to exit, trading a weekly system we exit at the end of the week.

    I have 2 Exits with 2 variables for each exit
    1. I have variable trailing stop with two different settings depending on the conditions of the markets.
    2. I also exercise a 'Stale Stop' that also needs two simultaneous conditions being met before I exit.

    Selling
    Successful trading is largely the art of selling. Buying a stock is easy. It is determining when to cut our losses or when to take our profits that is hard. Because it is so hard to determine when it is the right time to sell, many just don’t do it.

    Selling is a valuable tactical tool

    Selling a stock is by far the most valuable tactical tool that the individual trader has at their disposal. Selling is cheap and easy and can be undone in the blink of an eye. Too many seem to think that if they sell a stock, they are somehow prevented from buying it back again. Not so..

    It's a fact - Skate's a wimp
    In fact, I’ll go so far as to claim that a smart wimp who runs and hides when the going gets tough generally produces better results than brave souls who are proud of their ability to suffer great monetary pains while they wait for their convictions to be rewarded.

    @Gringotts Bank I hope everyone reads your comment at least twice, a comment that has my tick of approval.

    Skate
     
  15. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Your trailing stop exit on a weekly system is food for though,
    On my next system, i was to put a daily stoploss on a weekly system
    I will take your opinion into account
     
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  16. willoneau

    willoneau

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    I often wonder if I should use a trailing conditional order to get out once my trailing stop is touched.
     
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  17. Skate

    Skate

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    Follow up post
    @Newt I'm posting 4 of my closed positions (all closed positions were closed profits positions)

    Why Exit
    We exit for 2 reasons (1) to lock in profits & (2) to avoid further loses.

    How I exit a position
    The charts below are for a dual purpose (a) to show locked in profits & (b) to display the exits & why they were taken. The Charts have a few notations so @willoneau & others may understand how I exit a position (with notations & without notations gives a clearer picture) also @qldfrog may get an idea how to incorporate a new exit strategy from what I do.

    Closed profit positions (it also demonstrates why the exit was taken)
    2. NEA Closed profit Capture.JPG


    Explanation of the exits (colour coding makes a big difference to me - I'm the visual type)
    2. NEA Closed profit notation Capture.jpg


    Confirmation that I need two simultaneous conditions being met before I exit
    1. MGX Closed profit Capture.JPG


    The chart shows I need to give back some open profits to exit (it's part of the game)
    3. BUB Closed profit Capture.JPG


    Example of two different exits on the one chart ('Trailing Stop' exit & a 'Stale Stop' exit)
    4. APT Closed profit Capture.JPG


    After another 2 days of trading & it's still being kind to trend traders

    top Capture.JPG

    Skate.
     
  18. Gringotts Bank

    Gringotts Bank

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    Definitely a dream run for the trend traders. Meanwhile, for the last 2 weeks, reversion has been impossible. We're getting a lot of these.

    Small gap at the open with very low volume, tiny peak above the open, continues to fall, then closes above the low. Requires some discretion now. Waiting for supply to dry up isn't the answer. Setting a trade delay entry of a few days looks like the way to go, but I don't want to end up playing whack-a-mole. Needs to be coded somehow. I hate flat weeks.

    x.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2019
  19. willoneau

    willoneau

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    Hi skate, i enjoyed the charts you put up which are very close to the charting strategy I use.
     
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  20. BlindSquirrel

    BlindSquirrel

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    Don't look now but XAO is within a bee's unmentionables of its ATH.
    Currently 6860.8 vs ATH of 6873.2
     
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