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Dump it Here

Discussion in 'Beginner's Lounge' started by Skate, Dec 17, 2018.

  1. ducati916

    ducati916

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    Stock/Commodity prices are essentially fractal.

    An interesting read on the subject is 'Mandelbrot', "The (Mis) Behaviour of Markets".

    jog on
    duc
     
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  2. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    To add
    All analysis has an expiry in its timeframe
    Look for confirmation of continuation or capitulation
    As your fractals unfold
     
  3. Skate

    Skate

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    Trading successfully - the learning curve is steep
    TiminOz, you could read hundreds of books, watch the market for years and still not be profitable.

    Books are very technical
    All the excellent trading books will explain trading in very technical terms that are meaningless to the novice and they rarely mention what it takes to trade with confidence, failing to inform you about the emotional roller coaster you will soon start experiencing once you start trading.

    I wasted a lot of time reading
    Many of the books that I have read have turned out to be of little value at all, so I just wasted my time.

    Need to know - expected to know
    It’s time consuming just figuring out what you need to know and what you are expected to know, this leads to reading heaps of useless information that turns out to be irrelevant in the early stages of trading.

    You have to sift through so much material to find out if you need to know that information or not.

    You don’t even know enough
    You’ll have so many thoughts floating around in your head that require answers, sometimes you don’t even know enough to ask the right questions.

    Basic questions
    Just starting out on your trading journey you’ll need answers to some basic question and my suggestion to you would be to watch a few videos instead of reading books to begin with.

    Really enjoyable
    Watching videos is my preferred way of learning & watching a video or two is really enjoyable & educational.

    Time travelers
    Whereas reading a book is exhausting & mentally draining & it’s hard to stay in ‘NOW’ because we are all time travelers in our own mind.

    Mindfulness
    The degree of concentration when reading a trading book is enormous because your mind will do everything it can to make you think in the future or into the past, mindfulness is difficult to achieve.

    Human condition
    Your mind is a time traveler & its been that way from birth & you may not even realise when it's happening to you. (mind wandering is a human condition & nothing to worry about)

    Skill to learn
    'Mindfulness' & being in the 'Now' is another fascinating topic & it's a great skill to learn.

    The video link
    Is in the next post

    Skate.
     
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  4. Skate

    Skate

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    I highly recommended - Clay Trader Videos

    Clay is a full time stock trader, teacher, and blogger. Technical analysis and charts are the foundations to his success. Clay enjoys helping others become better traders. Look at a few of his videos & you’ll be hooked.

    His presentation style is unique & enjoyable but best of all its FREE.

    https://www.youtube.com/user/ClayTraderVideos

    Skate
     
  5. Skate

    Skate

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    Video or a Book ?
    Trading is a process & the very first step towards success as a trader is to become interested in it.

    Trading System

    To succeed in the financial markets you need to have some kind of trading system in place whether it’s Discretionary trading, Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis, you can use a Decision Tree process or Machine Learning to generate signals it’s up to you as (IMHO) it doesn’t really matter.

    Developing your particular style.

    The amount of time you want to dedicate to investing will determine how much research you might do and how closely you monitor your holdings, will determine the length of your holdings periods.

    Your temperament
    You’re emotional and psychological makeup will help determine if you have the temperament to play fast-moving, volatile stocks or are better suited to looking for undiscovered gems that will slowly gain attention.

    Up skill
    Your skill will determine if you will dig into financial statements, study the science behind why stocks do what they do, or focus on using charts to measure emotions of the market participants.

    Skate.
     
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  6. Skate

    Skate

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    More on self education..

    Starting out you have to feel comfortable

    The most important thing is to know yourself and to keep trying various methods until you arrive at an approach that works. Trading is all about trial & error.

    Bull & Bear Markets
    Unfortunately, the market often makes that quite difficult, because it is always changing, so the things that work best during one period may change.

    Perseverance
    However, that doesn’t mean that you reinvent yourself every time you struggle a bit. After you develop a style, it is important to stick with it and not give up just because you don’t make immediate progress.

    We are all different
    We all have different levels of risk tolerance, patience, activity, and emotional ups and downs. What is comfortable for one investor will drive another to distraction and if you can appreciate that fact, arriving at a style that works for you is easier.

    The Turtles
    In 1983, Richard Dennis bet his business partner Bill Eckhart that he could teach 14 novice traders a trend-following system to be great traders & the results were astounding. Bill Eckhart believed traders has an innate ability from birth.

    In summary

    I've always wondered if anyone who is reasonably intelligent having a good work ethic could teach themselves to be a profitable trader. The scary statistic is that many don't succeed.

    Skate.
     
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  7. ducati916

    ducati916

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    So expanding the discussion somewhat, the 'Random Walk Theory' postulates 3 conditions:

    (a) the martingale condition [that your best guess of tomorrow's price is today's price]; and
    (b) independence of prices; and
    (c) that all price changes in total form the Bell curve.

    I don't actually agree with any of them. Rather, that the 'magnitude' of price changes depends on those of the past, that rather than independence, there is dependence. This is another way of defining volatility and that volatility clusters.

    The above, also describes what we were discussing re. consolidations. Consolidations are low volatility periods. Breakouts are high volatility periods. If volatility clusters, which it does, then the breakout is the start of a high volatility period. As prices are dependent, that volatility cluster will be in the same direction [price].

    Stock selection can therefore be selecting low volatility and trading a rise in volatility in 'x' direction.

    Timeframes [fractals] should all be consistent in the trade.

    jog on
    duc
     
  8. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Hmm
    Don’t know Duc
    I can trade long and have a positive trade on a 5 min chart while the
    Daily chart is short! The same daily to weekly and vice versa.

    My point is that say a continuation pattern may signal and produce a bullish
    Price movement which has a time of expiry that being when price has either given an indication of something different to the signal that triggered it happening either positive or negatively
    OR
    The original signal is negated before anything else appears on the chart.
     
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  9. ducati916

    ducati916

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    1. Of course. No argument. My point is that big trending moves, sorts of moves techtrader might catch, are created through fractal timeframes where all timeframes are in the same phase. A recent example was the move down in oil.

    2. Yes again. These are the shorter term fluctuations that we often trade, especially if day trading.

    3. Which is simply a false signal.

    jog on
    duc
     
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  10. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Same page Ducster.
     
  11. Gringotts Bank

    Gringotts Bank

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    Please explain.
     
  12. ducati916

    ducati916

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    Simply where all your various timeframes indicate the same direction [based on your analysis, which may of course be wrong].

    Usually, each timeframe is slightly out of sync. The 5 mins chart indicates a short position, while the 1 hour chart suggests a long position, etc. Occasionally they all line up together. These are usually a strong probability of a successful trade.

    The issue is more when they don't align. Which timeframe dominates, which will you trade. There is no good answer to that as it varies.

    jog on
    duc
     
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  13. Skate

    Skate

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    Trading is boring (for me that is)
    Trading is boring & done correctly that’s exactly how it should be – Boring.

    The way I trade
    1. On Friday I push one button to generate the Buy & Sell signals
    2. Open CommSec & place those orders
    3. On Monday the confirmations are place in my Portfolio Manager

    That’s it – a total of 15 minute all up. Imagine you have this ‘Game’ the ‘Trading Game’ & you're limited to playing the game for 15 minutes a week – Now that's Boring…

    My trading style
    My trading investments are made using technical analysis using a Mechanical Trend Trading System

    Skate.
     
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  14. Skate

    Skate

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    Series of posts
    If you're starting your investment journey - this series of posts are for you.

    Starting Can Be Easy
    Trading doesn’t have to be super complicated or time consuming. Also, you don’t have to be rich either. There are plenty of easy ways to get started without having a ton of money and without being the world’s foremost trading expert.

    Skate.
     
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  15. Skate

    Skate

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    Series of posts
    If you're starting your investment journey - this series of posts are for you.

    Practice Makes Perfect
    It's critical to make smart trading decisions & you can learn as you go by trading small positions and if you make a mistake small loses are bearable. Making small mistakes now will give you the skills and experience you’ll need to make the right decisions later on. So don’t let fear or self-doubt keep you from getting started. The very act of getting started is much more important than getting it right.

    Skate.
     
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  16. Skate

    Skate

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    Series of posts
    If you're starting your investment journey - this series of posts are for you.

    Investment strategy rather than trading
    Instead of trading, start investing & one way is to start investing in Index Funds or Licenced investment companies (LICs) that are tradable on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). It’s simple, quick and there are no minimum contribution requirements and they trade like shares.

    Investment strategy
    You can keep your investment strategy robust and straightforward by using Index Funds or LICs & the resources are out there to get started with a significant investment strategy, even without much money or knowledge.

    Skate.
     
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  17. Skate

    Skate

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    The typical beginner
    The typical beginner will usually be worried more about when to enter a trade than anything else. They think little of risk management, or even bother to plan when to sell. Because of this, when a trade begins to turn against them, they hold with the hope of coming back to even or their former profit level. Worse off, they may average down, in effect doubling down on a loser.

    Don't be a loser
    It pays to remember - "Don't be a loser by adding to a losing position"

    Skate
     
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  18. Skate

    Skate

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    Series of posts
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    New traders struggle with the markets
    There are no RULES in the markets and most people like ‘rules’ and like to be told what to do. People are conditioned from childhood to listen to authority and follow ‘rules’.

    Excess freedom
    The problem is that 'excess freedom' cause people to become overwhelmed and fearful and lose money because they do not 'know' what to do.

    Human Nature
    Human Nature never changes, the Markets and players change, but human nature remains constant.

    Skate.
     
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  19. Skate

    Skate

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    Don't break your trading rules
    This is very difficult for some people to achieve because when dealing with large amounts of money, you tend to break your rules or make new ones along the way, solely for the purpose of justifying how you feel at the moment.

    Skate.
     
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  20. Skate

    Skate

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    You need to survive as a trader
    You need survivability. If you are seeking absolute returns using a reactive approach to trading, you will always get in a little late and you’ll always get out a little late.

    Consolidation (widely discussed on other threads)
    Initial buys may go through an initial dip, this can be quite normal or you may experience a profitable position from the start that may spend a few weeks consolidating in a base (when price typically becomes range-bound after reaching a certain level).

    Don’t panic
    These motions in price will inevitably cause drawdowns in your portfolio that can last weeks or even months. Being able to sit through these periods is probably the most difficult aspect about trading.

    Skate.
     
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