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Dump it Here

Discussion in 'Beginner's Lounge' started by Skate, Dec 17, 2018.

  1. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Fully agree cf Bernie, even with the millennials, a communist dinosaur has no chance against Trump so what is the market cheering is Trump reelection odds increasing.
    Same as locally ASX was going up with bad news cf virus as this implied future rate cuts.problem is virus is actually sabotaging the actual profits on the asx....
     
    Skate likes this.
  2. Skate

    Skate

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    Trading
    @qldfrog with life as well as trading we tend to skip from one drama to another, if it wasn't "this" it would be "that".

    Thinking & Decision making
    After reading your post above & the one you made in your thread this morning let me make a few observations & general comments. My post is not directed at you but it's the reason for making a few comments.
    Looking back
    12 months has flown by & it's evident by the level of commitment to your thread you have never wavered while at times experiencing a few bumps along your renewed trading journey. Some members are smart bunnies on this forum & @qldfrog you are no exception (emotional, "yes" - that's a given)
    Now a few GENERAL comments
    Planning for the next 12 months - I'm an avid reader of @qldfrog thread & after 12 months of successful trading it's the perfect time for him to do an evaluation of his trading methodology weighting up his options going forward, seeking input from members at this time rather than advice.

    Decision making
    Instead of making a general post in his thread I would rather use his post as the catalyst to explain the importance of decision making & how it shapes not only your life but your financial future. I'd love to have a dollar for every time someone asked me for advice (I'd be rolling in it), my fallback response is always "not to give advice" because people will do what pleases them & "not what's in their best interest".

    If I was in the same circumstance "what I would do".
    I would formulate one trading strategy & nailed it down completely before moving on to something more exotic. Often friendly advice, gives you choices, challenging your own way of thinking but after saying all this - "I would stay within my circle of competence when it comes to trading"

    General advice
    You also need to understand how to deal with the stress of trading - stressful situations & how you "respond" rather then "reacting" will eventually decide your trading fate, concentrate on this & your part way there to being a half decent trader.

    The law of least effort
    Many receive advice "only the wise profit from it". People in general will think as little as possible because most of our lives, we spend our time listening to someone else feed us information but when it comes time to take responsibility for our decision making, we are constantly waiting for someone else to tell us what to do or checking to see what others are doing.

    Thinking
    Thinking & curiosity has been pulled out from under us & as traders it's time for us to reclaim this area. Critical thinking is important but not as important as discovering new ways of thinking about them.

    Skate.
     
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  3. Saqeeb

    Saqeeb

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    Saqeeb’s MAP Strategy - EOW 1 Weekly Update

    First week into paper trading, my system sold CGL today at open after the thumping it received last week.

    My system also entered 6 new positions today (APD, GOR, EHL, NSR, MNY and BVS), bringing the total open positions to 11.

    I have included a snapshot of open / closed trades and equity curve for interested.

    With @Skate ‘s advice and help, the total purchase value in each position moving forward will be based on a limit offer price to keep it realistic in attempting to purchase at market open.

    Equity Curve.JPG Open_Closed_Positions Table.JPG
     
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  4. Skate

    Skate

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    I received a PM a few days ago regarding the coding of a Bollinger Bands Breakout Strategy. Sometimes you forget about an old friend till you are reminded. There are many who trade a variation of the BBO strategy as it's a trusted workhorse that works in all periods. My only gripe with the BBO Strategy is the standard setting & parameters no longer work as originally intended so it's important to discover new ways to implement this brilliant idea of John Bollinger.

    Let's talk about my old friend - the trusty BBO Strategy
    I've traded a standalone Weekly Strategy a few years ago (with good success) over a 2 year period before combining it with two other strategies to form the basis of my HYBRID Strategy. I don't really care what breakout strategy you use they will all get you into a trend & the Bollinger Bands Strategy is no different.

    No need to re-invent the wheel
    My HYBRID Strategy is a modified version of these three strategies (a) BlueWren, (b) Darvas Box & (c) Bollinger Bands Breakout. The sole purpose of combining them into one strategy is to enter a confirmed trend quickly. Each strategy in their own right is a top performer, combining them turns a good system into a better strategy (IMHO).

    2019 what a great year
    @qldfrog made the remark the 2019 calendar year was a year that had great growth momentum overall. I have to agree wholeheartedly with him prompting me to make the off the cuff comment in his thread - "Any trader who is not rolling in it at the moment should be re-evaluating their strategy to understand why they missed a great trading opportunity"

    Backtest
    I'll post 3 backtests of my original old friend the (BBO strategy). With the passing of a few years I myself was wondering if John Bollinger's idea (my Weekly BBO strategy) would still punch-out a profit in turbulent times. Lets see..

    Backtest (1) Skate's original BBO Weekly Strategy - (One Calendar Year)
    Start Date: 1st January 2019
    End Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000 (No re-balancing)

    BBO Capture 1 Year.JPG




    Backtest (2) Skate's original BBO Weekly Strategy - (2 Calendar Years)
    Start Date: 1st January 2018
    End Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000 (No re-balancing)

    BBO Capture 2 Years.JPG




    Backtest (3) Skate's original BBO Weekly Strategy - (3 Calendar Years)
    Start Date: 1st January 2017
    End Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000 (No re-balancing)

    BBO Capture 3 Years.JPG

    Let me quote the guy from the Toyota Television add
    Yep' - I'm still feeling it.

    The Weekly BBO Strategy still works...

    Skate.
     
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  5. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Did i hinted that to you Skate.? Or great spirits meeting?
    I spent the last week on a very decent version of bband with tweaks and that is the system i plan to replace one of my cam live system with.
    Timely post as i can now compare the backtests
     
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  6. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    if of interest, QF's under dev BBand system:
    Backtest (1) QF's under dev BBand Weekly Strategy - (One Calendar Year)
    Start Date: 1st January 2019
    End Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    SetPositionSize( 15000,1 )..this is not my usual setting I usually use
    SetPositionSize( 100 / maxOpenPositions, spsPercentOfEquity ); // Fixed Fractional Sizing
    upload_2020-2-25_16-50-53.png


    Backtest (2) QF's under dev BBand Weekly Strategy - (2 Calendar Years)
    Start Date: 1st January 2018
    End Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    SetPositionSize( 15000,1 )
    upload_2020-2-25_16-51-31.png



    Backtest (3) QF's under dev BBand Weekly Strategy - (3 Calendar Years)
    Start Date: 1st January 2017
    End Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    SetPositionSize( 15000,1 )
    upload_2020-2-25_16-52-15.png
    discussion on differences follows
     

    Attached Files:

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  7. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    QF apprentice system:
    One year: much lower return:half risk adjusted returns, far less trades and positions held far longuer
    2 years: similar to 1 year,
    3 years.Not too bad but well below Master Skate :)
    There are clear leads to follow: average bar helds which would obviously increase the number of trades and allow more chances to pic the big winners
    To be considered: even as is, my clanky system would be quite decent vs an eps expected returns so I will definitively carry on work to improve my design
    Thanks Skate for the never ending motivation you provide, even on days where my systems will soon go back to 0 or negative annual returns if the trends carry on :-(
     
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  8. Skate

    Skate

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    @qldfrog I'm posting the paper trading results of the BBO Strategy for two reasons.. (1) Comparison of Signals & (2) what can happen to a structurally sound strategy hitting turbulent times. The Reports & line chart is from 1:34pm today.

    1. The BBO Strategy NEW Logo.jpg

    The BBO Weekly Strategy
    Start Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000 (No re-balancing)

    Weekly Update Format
    1. The "Share Trade Tracker" Dashboard
    2. Portfolio performance line chart
    3. Open Summary
    4. Pending buy & sell positions

    3. Button Update.jpg

    4. Dashboard Capture.JPG




    5. Line Chart Capture.JPG




    6. Open Summary Capture.JPG

    Verbalizing our Prime Minister Scott Morrison
    “How good is Trading?" a rhetorical question that requires no answer (at the moment)

    Skate.
     
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  9. Skate

    Skate

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    @Triple_Witching posted a brilliant article in the "equititrust thread" - I could condense the article by repeating my matra of "Don't waste the dash" but that wouldn't do the article justice.

    "Don't waste the dash"
    Before you ask, let me explain what the "Dash" is. On a Headstone the "DASH" represents a life that was lived. Don't waste the dash is my cryptic way of say, "don't waste your life"

    The dash between 1949 - 1996 represents the period of time Timothy's was alive.

    [​IMG]

    I'm re-posting @Triple_Witching post without permission as it's an important read..

    Life Is Not A Practice Run
    A few weeks ago I was handed a copy of Paulo Coelho’s, The Alchemist. I’ve heard this book finds you when you need it the most and so I set about reading it with intention. There were many lessons and thought-provoking ideas scattered throughout the text, but perhaps one of the most striking to me was this: “To realize one’s destiny is a person’s only obligation.”

    Here’s the thing: your life isn’t a practice run. You only get one go at it and it’s your responsibility to make the most of it, to live it fully and make it count. So few people ever give much more than a fleeting thought to their destiny or purpose and even fewer people take a deliberate path to find theirs and live it. I’m not an expert in purpose but here’s what I’ve observed: when you meet someone who is authentically living their purpose, they’re magnetic. They live their life on fire.

    So why is it that we waste so much time living default setting lives that are not aligned with our destinies? Again, I’m no expert, but I think it’s because in the madness of daily living so many of us have stopped listening to our inner voice. We’ve collectively buried our hopes and dreams under responsibilities and fears and one by one when we emerge from under the weight of these things, we don’t even know where to start looking for our purpose. There is no key on Earth that will unlock the door to instant happiness and purpose, but there are three key things you could do right now to start taking the first steps on a journey to realizing your destiny.

    Stop looking for purpose and start living on purpose. Desperately overthinking your purpose turns your focus inwards. Living on purpose turns this on its head because it moves us from overanalyzing every detail of our lives to being an active participant in our lives. Nothing ever happens to us, but everything happens for us. When we develop an attitude independent of circumstance and when we cultivate gratitude in our lives daily, we will find that our capacity increases and our focus changes

    Ask where you are needed. Purpose is focused outwards and meaning is found in serving others. Just look around you and I’m sure it won’t take you long to identify a need that your talents and skills could help solve. What we often take for granted in ourselves can be an enormous blessing to other people if we are open to sharing our own knowledge, skills and talents without expectation or desire for any return action.

    Move, damn it! Actions speak louder than words every day of the week and no amount of reading and researching is going to move you any closer to your destiny. If you’re afraid, you don’t need to make big moves. Small consistent steps repeated over time produce profound results, but you’ve got to get started. Craft a plan, get a coach or mentor and set a goal. Without structured support and a clear plan of action, it’s easy to give up when the first tough day comes, but when we’re focused on the end goal it’s incredible how much more we can endure than when we focus on right now.

    Perhaps the great Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius summed up the brevity of life in this quote: “When you arise in the morning, think of what a precious privilege it is to be alive – to breathe, to think, to enjoy, to love.” My question to you is this – are you making the most of this one life that you’ve been given to live and are you chasing your destiny with all your heart or are you living your life on autopilot, waiting for the next thing to happen to you? Whether you realize it or not, you’re in control. This isn’t a rehearsal so get busy living.


    Skate.
     
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  10. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    @Skate,
    Comparing my weekly system results, i noticed that my #bars reflected nb of days..not weeks
    https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1058331/
    Is this something you experienced during your systems development?
    By providing a comparison on Bollinger, i went to improved my code further, up to a decent system
    And will start winding down my second Cam live system and replace it with that Bollinger bands based one, thanks for the inspiration in this journey
     
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  11. Skate

    Skate

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    @qldfrog first off, I've never experienced the issue that you are describing but I can say "minor coding or parameter settings" can cause headaches as minor issues can replicate themselves throughout the backtest & exploration. @Nina4 has given you some great examples but as you have directed a question to me I'll give you a few ideas from my perspective.

    Making suggestions without the facts
    I've neglected to make a comment previously in your thread as an examination of your code is required. Let me put it another way: it's like being at the doctors for a checkup & while you are there you ask the doctor a simple question "my wife is not feeling well, what do you think is wrong with her"

    Suggestions
    1. Open your .apx file as it contains every bit of information contained in your strategy as all of the parameters & settings are contained in this one file. If you don't use an .apx file to load your strategy "you should" If you don't have an .apx file make one & by examining it I'm sure you will find the issue.

    APX Capture.PNG

    2. Make sure the periodicity in your Analysis setting is correctly selected

    Analysis setting Capture.PNG

    3. Write a periodicity check in your code - so it's Okay to execute (example below)
    OkToExecute = Interval() == inWeekly;

    4. Also, you can write an "else statement" to verbally warn you, stopping the execution of your code till the periodicity is corrected - meaning if the periodicity is wrong a display message will be displayed with a verbal warning why the execution cannot proceed. (example below) - The reason for the warning below: the last analysis was set to "Daily".

    Explore daily Capture.PNG

    Sample of an else statement
    else
    {
    msg = "Skate, this formula needs to be executed in WEEKLY timeframe.";
    Say( msg );
    else
    DisplayGfxTitle( msg );
    }

    I have checks & balances in all my strategies
    The above code is supplied as an example "only" of the checks & balances I have coded in to every strategy as I run many Backtesting/Explorations over many different time frames. The additional code also executes the same warning on the charts. With the amount of coding & variety of strategies we all test I for one couldn't live without running my tests without first using the Analysis Project File (.apx file) to load the .afl. Without checks & balances when executing a strategy I believe mistakes would be frequent.

    Chart Example
    Check & Balances in the coding - "Nothing to see here as the " CORRECT periodosity is selected (Weekly)

    Weekly selected Capture.PNG



    Peridosity Chart Checks & Balances
    Check & Balances in the coding - "A warning message is displayed with an audible alert" as the INCORRECT periodicity has been selected (Daily) - the strategy is weekly

    Daily selected Capture.PNG

    Skate.
     
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  12. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Thanks for the clear answers.plenty of good advices and hints..i know it is AB focused but i hope this will help others.
    Indeed @Nina4 has been much helpful and i think she pointed to the issue.will check as soon as on my pc.many thanks all
     
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  13. Skate

    Skate

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    Don't throw away a good strategy because of a small sample size
    Meaning, "Don't throw the baby out with the bath water". Tomorrow I'll be reporting on my 4 strategies being paper traded & this weeks results are looking very sad indeed. There would be few members game enough to trade any of my systems going on this weeks results.

    I've condensed the 4 strategy backtests in one report
    The backtesting has been performed over 1, 2 & 3 years & the strategy with the worst performance isn't a shabby system, far from it. To stay true with @qldfrog backtest parameters I've used ($100k X 20 position Portfolio).

    Each strategy is listed in order of the "Annual Returns", just for the records.

    Backtest Parameters
    Portfolio Capital: $100,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    Fixed Position Sizing: $5,000 (No re-balancing)


    THURSDAY - Backtest Capture.JPG

    Skate.
     
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  14. Warr87

    Warr87

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    I still can't get over those CAR/MDD ratio's. Crazy good.

    I just checked my system. It's going from +1.5% to -7.7%. Am I worried? Nope. It's not ideal, but I am exciting to catch the moment when it rebounds. I can't get my +30-60% that my ssytem trades at if I wont weather the -15-25% MDD that goes with it.

    My account size is much smaller than a lot of others so there is that psychological help. But that being said, if I lost my account it would still hurt.
     
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  15. Newt

    Newt

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    I'd love to be able to code strategies that get into profit so agressively, but not something I've even been able to nut out. Thanks for sharing all this Skate. Very thought provoking.

    And thanks for not dodging the elephant in the room (re the terrible week on the markets so far) - the show must go on.....!
     
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  16. jbocker

    jbocker

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    Plan B
    Going to a beach wedding today 3 PM at a Beach in Perth. If you live here and look out the window at the current storm lightening and rain you would hope the Bride and Groom have a Plan B.

    I guess a lot of people are looking at their plan B's over the last week in this market.

    I feel sorry for my nephews new bride a beautiful English Lass who decided to come to sunny Australia and has dreamt of a beach wedding on some of the best beaches in the world, probably would not have dreamed or risked a beach wedding in England.

    Dreams. Reality. Plan B.
    It is still beautiful.
     
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  17. Skate

    Skate

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    Well what a week !!
    I've looked back at the markets over many decades trying to understand the natural patterns of falls but this time the pattern was "servere & quick", the quickness has caught most out, not only Weekly Trend Traders. My only advice is to put dollar amounts into percentages so the evaluation of this week results retains perspective.

    Tend Trading Systems
    This weeks reporting is worse than I said a few days ago. @aus_trader new tag this week should be corrected to: Another Day Another Dollar..."DOWN" (smiley face removed) In tough times let's remember @jbocker tag: "Stay Cool"

    A few more paragraphs
    Another quote from the book "Trade Like an O'Neil Disciple: How We Made Over 18,000% in the Stock Market". The lifted paragraph has kind words to say about "Trend Following Strategies"

    New Trading Strategies Can Derail Your Trading
    "New strategies sound tempting to try because some well-known investor has used the strategy with success. A successful trader knows his strategy must always correspond to his trading personality. Otherwise you are more than likely to abandon your position prematurely when it moves against you, or worse, you may get caught holding a particularly volatile position too long if it suddenly slips well beyond your mental stop alerts, thus psychologically trapping you, as you now are put in the position of hoping the position moves higher so you can recover part of your loss before selling it, a dangerous psychological trap"

    "Those who are particularly vulnerable to this problem may be going through a weak spell due to a specific market period that does not work well with their strategy, such as the way choppy, trendless periods can cross-up trend followers"

    "There have been times when changes in the market were only temporary but lasted just long enough for many investors to adjust their strategy. There have been several periods throughout the past 30 years when it has been declared that trend following was dead. Yet the best traders with exemplary 25+ year track records such as Bill Dunn and John Henry, as interviewed in Trend Following by Michael Covel, prove that a consistent trend-following approach works brilliantly. These traders are the rare few who continue to trade their strategy even during difficult times when the market is trendless rather than abandoning their strategy and succumbing to the “this time is different” view"

    My Paper trading reports to follow
    After viewing my 4 trend trading strategies weekly results keep in mind the highlighted words above.

    Skate.
     
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  18. Skate

    Skate

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    1. The ZIG Strategy NEW Logo.jpg

    The ZIG Weekly Strategy

    Start Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000 (No re-balancing)

    Weekly Update Format
    1. The "Share Trade Tracker" Dashboard
    2. Portfolio performance line chart
    3. Open Summary
    4. Pending buy & sell positions

    3. Button Update.jpg

    4. Dashboard Capture.JPG




    5. Line Chart Capture.JPG




    6. Open Summary Capture.JPG




    7. This weeks Buys & Sells Capture.JPG


    Squiggles Sell.jpg

    This weeks sells

    ABC
    MMI
    PAR
    PNV

    Perfect scenario
    This week hasn't been kind to traders but it's the perfect scenario for paper trading (let's see if the strategy can recover)

    Skate.
     
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  19. Skate

    Skate

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    1. MAP Strategy Logo Capture.JPG

    The MAP Weekly Strategy
    Start Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000 (No re-balancing)

    Weekly Update Format
    1. The "Share Trade Tracker" Dashboard
    2. Portfolio performance line chart
    3. Open Summary
    4. Pending buy & sell positions


    3. The MAP Button Update.jpg

    4. The MAP Dashboard.JPG




    5. The MAP Line Chart Capture.JPG




    6. The MAP Open Summary.JPG




    7. The MAP Strategy Buys & Sells Capture.JPG


    sells 2 dice.jpg

    This weeks Sells
    ALG
    BFG
    CCX
    CL1
    MCP
    MMI
    NEU
    ORE
    PAR
    PNV

    Perfect scenario
    This week hasn't been kind to traders but it's the perfect scenario for paper trading (let's see if the strategy can recover)

    Skate.
     
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  20. Skate

    Skate

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    1. Flipper Strategy Logo Capture.JPG

    The FLIPPER Weekly Strategy
    Start Date: 1st January 2020
    Portfolio Capital: $300,000
    Positions in the Portfolio: 20
    Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000 (No re-balancing)

    Weekly Update Format
    1. The "Share Trade Tracker" Dashboard
    2. Portfolio performance line chart
    3. Open Summary
    4. Pending buy & sell positions

    3. The 20% Flipper Button Update.jpg

    4. The Flipper Dashboard.JPG




    5. The Flipper Line Chart Capture.JPG




    6. Flipper Open Positions Capture.JPG




    7. The Flipper Strategy Buys & Sells Capture.JPG


    Sells for this week.jpg

    This weeks sells
    ABC
    ALG
    BFG
    CAT
    ORE
    PAR
    PNI
    PNV

    Perfect scenario
    This week hasn't been kind to traders but it's the perfect scenario for paper trading (let's see if the strategy can recover)

    Skate.
     
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