Copper

[frugal.rock]

Low copper prices will prevent new mines being developed. This will only exacerbate the copper shortage in the next few years.

"As recently as a few weeks ago, traders were still redirecting cargoes to the United States in a rush to get copper into the country before the tariffs.
Trump's unexpected pivot now raises the question of whether some of that stockpile might be re-exported. Macquarie estimated earlier this month it would take nine months of normal consumption just to run down the inventories built up in the first half of the year."

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trumps-watered-down-copper-tariffs-crush-comex-premium-2025-07-31/

 

[wayneL]

Copper got cornholed last night, down 20% odd.

From tradingeconomics.com

Copper​

Copper futures in the US fell up to 6% to $5.35 per pound on Thursday, extending the record-high 18% plunge in the previous session after President Trump excluded refined copper from the tariff package that will start on Friday. The tariffs will apply to imports of semi-finished copper products in wires and pipes, but will refrain from taxing ore, cathodes, and concentrates, among the most widely forms of copper imported to the US. The slump was the unwind of traders allocating metal into the US before the end of July to undercut threats of 50% tariffs on copper, which included refined products, and led to shortages of metal in foreign exchanges to lift copper futures to a record of $5.9 this week. Consequently, the premium of US copper to comparable LME contracts had surged to a record of 30%. The new measures also stated tariffs would only be applied to the share of copper in semifinished products, in addition of export controls for a growing share of metal to be sold domestically.​

 

[frugal.rock]

A chart

 

[finicky]

Market Matters discussed these copper ETFs in depth this morning:

Intro:

"President Trump has disrupted the copper market to the nth degree over recent months, a journey we’ve covered extensively, being long-term bulls on the industrial metal. In the last 48 hours, the President has again turned the global copper market upside down after he went ahead with 50% tariffs on copper"

Conclusion:

 

[JohnDe]

Cashing in some of my stocks. Copper is going, if my high price is accepted.

 

[Sean K]

Resolution was expected to be approved due to Trump, but sacred cacti have prevailed once again.

At least this is somewhat supportive for the copper price because this will fill a small gap in the supply demand equation in the longer term.



Mr Henry took to social media to talk up the Trump meeting, which included US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, which he said underscored “our shared commitment to develop Resolution Copper”.

“Resolution Copper is one of the largest untapped, high grade copper resources in the US today and will create thousands of high value local jobs in Arizona and billions in economic activity across America,” he said on LinkedIn.

“Copper is essential to everyday life as a critical component in powerlines, smart phones, medical equipment, cars, and data centres. Demand for copper is growing strongly. The world needs more mining to build the future.”

“As the world’s largest mining company and copper producer, I want to thank President Trump and Secretary Burgum for their strong leadership to reinvigorate mining and processing supply chains in and for America.”

Mr Trump used his online platform Truth Social to attack a US court and what he called radical activists for delaying the project.

“A Copper Mine in Arizona, “Resolution,” was just delayed by a Radical Left Court for two months — 3800 Jobs are affected, and our Country, quite simply, needs Copper — AND NOW!” he posted.

“They are looking to do an Expedited Appeal before the Ninth Circuit, but it is so sad that Radical Left Activists can do this, and affect the lives of so many people.

“Those that fought it are Anti-American, and representing other Copper competitive Countries. We can’t continue to allow this to happen to the U.S.A.! The Appeal will take place, shortly, in the Ninth Circuit.”

 

[JohnDe]

Cashing in some of my stocks. Copper is going, if my high price is accepted.

My sale didn't go through, asking price was too high. I'm an optimist.

I've owned COPX for about 5 years, I am in the green but there are better investments out there. I've only got a small holding, hoping that some of the hype would eventually come true.

 

[Sean K]

What we all know is that copper only has one way to go longer term. BHP agrees with us.

Copper price must rise to overcome supply deficit, warns BHP

The strong outlook is driving investor interest and M&A activity among juniors, as shown by Coda’s rise and the PolarX-Northern Star deal.

www.livewiremarkets.com

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The mergers and acquisitions intentions of BHP, Rio Tinto and Glencore are back in the spotlight after Anglo American and Teck Resources agreed to merge in a deal that will create one of the world’s largest copper producers, with a combined market value of more than $80bn.

Both companies had rejected takeover approaches from rivals in recent years and sought to restructure their portfolios.

Anglo rejected a roughly $US50bn ($75.7bn) offer from BHP last year while Canadian giant Teck rejected a $US23bn pitch from Glencore in 2023, before later selling it its steelmaking assets.

Anglo Teck will have a combined annual output of 1.2 million metric tonnes and a market cap of $US53bn.

 

[qldfrog]

from Monsieur Le Duc:
"Key Copper Mine Halted Amidst Mudslides.
US copper giant Freeport-McMoran (NYSE:FCX) halted mining operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine in the world, after mudslides blocked access to parts of the underground infrastructure"
Less supply,better price?

 

[Sean K]

Maybe there'll be some more interest in any copper mid-juniors that could be hoovered up. Also those explorer/developers with decent deposits needing big capex to get off the ground that only the majors can finance. There's not many of them but while the copper price is still languishing a bit, maybe the junior M&A rush will hold off until the copper price rises further and therefore IRR and payback time reduces.

Recent plays: