- 24 December 2005
February 2011 saw the peak price of copper, since then it has had a steady fall with no break back up through the overhead trendline unlike gold, silver and oil. Just a steady downward trajectory.
There is a head and shoulders pattern forming on the monthly copper chart, which suggests copper might be headed down towards the support line in Ann's chart above.
Note that the left hand shoulder also forms part of the handle in the cup and handle formation that emerged in 2017 which suggested the move up.
OK, I'm not much of a student of charting so always good to have some feedback on my observations.G'day tinhat, mostly I don't see H+S resolving in a textbook manner unless they are right at the pinacle of a chart. However, in this case you may be right. I would like to see it fall and touch that rising support line. It would give me a lot of confidence it is on the way back up and I feel a touch and bounce would strengthen it for a good go at the overhead falling resistance line.
We now know a lot more about the actual quantities of copper used in all forms of electric vehicles. My original figures were very conservative for HEVs and as BEVs were not on the scene back then, we now have a new metric. HEVs will disappear and BEVs will become the new normal, consuming about 4 times the amount of copper as an ICE (internal combustion engine) alternative.
What I did do in my first post in 2007 was to look at at how much copper would be needed to convert the entire car fleet to EVs by 2027, just to show the massive volumes of copper involved. (There was no way that our manufacturing base could achieve that, even if every vehicle manufactured since 2007 was an EV.)
WRT to the ducati quote, I never assumed that after the subprime meltdown there would be an immediate shift to a bull market of any sort. Commodity bulls are very few and far between - just look at oil and gold as examples. However, as the BEV market accelerates, there is every chance that a number of metals essential to EVs will stretch the supply chain such that in a flat world economy there will be areas of significant outperformance.
Over the next few weeks I will look around to see if the major copper producers have any data or specific reports on what they regard as probable.
Add this to your reading list.Thanks Rob, that is very interesting. I have to confess I am a total Copper bull, so any info like that is delicious for my bias.
Darn the "this" is not linking Rob. I don't think they have HTML here.
Thanks Skate, but that didn't work for me either, I guess gremlins are at play here!Ann, the hyperlink..