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Beginner's Trading Blog

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Re: Beginner's Blog

CanOz said:
Like this? this is the Market Depth from IB for BHP a few minutes ago...
Click to expand...

Nuh that's not quite it Can.

What i mean is at price $37.76 for BHP it would line up:

Can Oz: 100 shares
kid hustlr: 50 shares
Trembling Hand 5000 shares

etc. etc.

Maybe I'm dreaming anyway and to be honest in faster moving futures markets its probably less of an issue or irrelevant all together. If you pro's don't need it I can't see why I would!

I'm finding the booktrader highly addictive fwiw.
 
Re: Beginner's Blog


Yeah, i don't think IB has that level of detail for equity depth...

There are some great videos on YT from Jigsaw Trading on the DOM (book trader). He's just completed a series for TST. I think there are three videos all together. Also, some of John Grady's videos are on YT as well, look for nobsdaytrading. Guy Bower from Propex has some rippers on the SPI, look for Guy Bower.

Cheers,


CanOz
 
Re: Beginner's Blog


Yeah thinking about it more now there must be a way to view the buyer depth at each level otherwise how would you know where you are in the queue?

I'll check out those videos over the coming weeks when I have a chance cheers.
 
Re: Beginner's Blog

Well.

Long day.

After watching the open this morning I pretty much spent the rest of the day on ninjatrader using the ninja wizard. It's a powerful tool. I tried a variety of different systems and I'll continue to play around and get a feel for it however its going to take time. Little things comes up like how to place a certain type of stop or how to use xyz function and it just takes time to learn all these things.

I played around with 3 ideas for a system, the first was just a simple 'buy after 2 down days'. I only wanted to hold for one day and then sell at the close but Ninjatrader is kind of weird in that it sells you on the open of the next day. See example below (its a bad example actually). I'm sure there is a way to fix this.



I also tried a hard pivot system (long only) as well as an up key reversal strategy (long only) (seen here). Both are effectively playing on the concept of price patterns.

I think they both have a lot of potential and I like the idea of incorporating an RSI or something like that into them. Effectively it paints the picture of a set up into oversold territory on the RSI and the we get the pattern formation to confirm the buying support. Obviously all these things need a ton more work.

Overall though I'm definitely going to spend most of attention (initially atleast) on patterns. Anyone who seems to make money at this game seems to bad most of the indicators so I guess I should listen to them.
 
Re: Beginner's Blog

Random Thoughts - The yield curve.

Outside of Year 12 and a few subjects at Uni, I don't know a whole lot about economics. I do know that the yield curve is an important indicator within the market and combined with a basic understanding of how bonds operate I think they can really help paint a long term picture of where the economy is heading.

The chart below is something I came up with yesterday after playing around at the RBA's website. The red line is the spread between the 3yr and the 10yr Australian Bonds. Obviously when this number is below zero the yield curve is inverted. A lot of people note an inverted yield curve as a sign we are heading into a recession. Whilst that was the case a few years back, I also note how much profit you would have missed out on if you had sold all your holdings and went to cash the minute it turned negative.

The blue line is the ASX200.



The thing which struck me was how inverted the two lines are. What also struck me was how good the spread between the 3yr and the 10yr is at picking stock market bottoms. Effectively, as a long term investor, You should be looking to buy stocks when the spread between the 3yr and the 5yr is high and selling it when it is low. This makes sense in practice as well as a very high spread between the 3 and 10 yr suggests money is a lot cheaper now then it will be in 10 years time. As such you should borrow now and spend/invest it.

So the question is how can I use it?

I think the best way to use the chart is for confirmation at major peaks and troughs. Think of the spread as an oscillator. When the spread is very high, its a good time to buy stocks, when the spread is beginning to get low, be aware that the trend may be ending.

Historically the spread also seems quite high. In my view long term investors should be buying.
 
Re: Beginner's Blog

More food for thought.

The Recent Bang has been coming for a while. Sometimes not everything lines up as planned but few can argue that the recent trend hasn't been up up and away.

It's been noted by many before me who know a lot more about this game that much of the day session is spent filling overnight gaps and range trading. This is also true of the SPI (probably moreso than others..) yet lately something changed.

See chart below.

Through most of January it did it's usual thing where it would gap up and then fill it during the day. Yet on the 21st something happened, and despite its best the bears best efforts over the next couple of days they couldn't close that gap. And of she goes.

This is definitely something i need to keep an eye on in the future.

 
kid hustlr, I have renamed your thread so that those who come across it will know that it is a beginner's trading blog. The fact that it is in this particular forum (Trading Strategies/Systems) is already a clue but you might get some additional views from those searching for trading related threads both on ASF and from those who hit the site directly from Google.
 

tx Joe
 
I watched the open on the SPI again this morning. Overnight it was one way traffic heading south so I was interested to see if the trend bucked when the day session opened.

It kept a pretty tight range leading into the open but I did pick up a couple of things. I wish I had taped it so I could go look at it again some other time. (Mental note to do this).

1. the bid and ask size didn't seem to matter that much. When we were at support at the lows and I thought some accumulation was forming, it didn't actually take that much to blow through it. The 'bid size' was stacked with with like 200 lot parcels at all levels but it looked like they got pulled pretty quickly when we challenged those levels. A number of those bids were definitely removed.

2. Whenever the highest bid is below the last traded I feel the next move will be down and vica versa. This is because in that example if someone wanted to sell and jump the queue they would need to go down a level to the highest bid. I'm not sure if this helps me in the slightest as I feel it would be too hard to scalp given the speed of the moves and the queue position needed.

So many thoughts!
 

Oh I agree you will go nutz trying to get a positive R:R in a 5 minute trade, especially something like the SPI.
 
Cheers guys.

Just trying to master this game. I recognise there is a difference between intraday stuff and longer term trades. Doesn't mean i cant master them both!

Agreed the SPI isnt the best thing to watch although there is decent activity on the open.

SCREEN TIME!
 

What other Asian data do you have access to Kid?
 
CanOz said:
What other Asian data do you have access to Kid?
Click to expand...

At this stage none.

I need to check if IB offers any other free data.

If they don't then I'll most likely jump into this blog and ask for help on where I can find some free DOM's to study!
 
kid hustlr said:
At this stage none.

I need to check if IB offers any other free data.

If they don't then I'll most likely jump into this blog and ask for help on where I can find some free DOM's to study!
Click to expand...

I've got a ton of US markets for free, with AMP Clearing. Most of the fees for US markets are waived if you have an account with a broker.

CanOz
 
CanOz said:
I've got a ton of US markets for free, with AMP Clearing. Most of the fees for US markets are waived if you have an account with a broker.

CanOz
Click to expand...

Cheers TH I will investigate. It's one of the many things on my 'to do' list.

Still keeping an eye on this chart. Divergences themselves aren't the be all and end all and this is only one study of market breadth yet it is still of some concern for out market. As many have said perhaps just a warning.

 
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