Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[rederob]

Here's a stock that can be measured

The U.S. stock market significantly dominates the global market, holding a larger share than the rest of the world combined. While the exact percentage varies by source, estimates consistently place the U.S. market at roughly 40-60% of global market capitalization. This dominance is reflected in various metrics, including market capitalization relative to GDP and overall index weightings.

Can you tell us how the US stock market mirrors the US economy, national debt, employment or living costs.
For that matter how does it explain why America leads the world in bankruptcies, has crumbling infrastructure and cannot even build high speed rail?

 

[DannyB0000]

Can you tell us how the US stock market mirrors the US economy, national debt, employment or living costs.
For that matter how does it explain why America leads the world in bankruptcies, has crumbling infrastructure and cannot even build high speed rail?
View attachment 205206

Add to that Trump has been bankrupt 6 times, 4 times by his own admission and a convicted felon and his supporter base put in the Whitehouse, he only has agreeable people around him and won’t tolerate any dissent. Trump fan boys and girls still trust him with running their economy. He will be the greatest president ever so they think ?

 

[houtman]

Trump has unilaterally determined by Executive Order a tariff rate that applies to goods imported into America.

Agree with that part, has anyone suggested he hasn't.

Not a single nation has to date signed an agreement on reciprocity arrangements.

If by this you mean no country has retaliated by imposing their own Tariffs on the US, of course not. It's a big dog v small dog situation.

The only country that could realistically reciprocate is China.

 

[rederob]

View attachment 205209


Agree with that part, has anyone suggested he hasn't.

If by this you mean no country has retaliated by imposing their own Tariffs on the US, of course not. It's a big dog v small dog situation.

The only country that could realistically reciprocate is China.

First, both Canada and China retaliated with reciprocal tariffs.
Second, Trump's tariffs are not reciprocal, nor are they based on US deficit quanta. They are whatever Trump wants, such as the 50% levy on goods imported from Brazil, just because Brazil is prosecuting insurrectionist Bolsanaro.
Third, it is not generally in the interest of other nations to impose reciprocal tariffs as it increases the costs of goods in that nation.
Forth, Trump has ZERO agreements in writing with any other nations (including the EU) regarding reciprocal arrangements. In other words the claims Trump has made regarding what other nations are offering in return have never been formalised. Here's one example of why no nations have signed on to Trump's proposals:

 

[farmerge]

First, both Canada and China retaliated with reciprocal tariffs.
Second, Trump's tariffs are not reciprocal, nor are they based on US deficit quanta. They are whatever Trump wants, such as the 50% levy on goods imported from Brazil, just because Brazil is prosecuting insurrectionist Bolsanaro.
Third, it is not generally in the interest of other nations to impose reciprocal tariffs as it increases the costs of goods in that nation.
Forth, Trump has ZERO agreements in writing with any other nations (including the EU) regarding reciprocal arrangements. In other words the claims Trump has made regarding what other nations are offering in return have never been formalised. Here's one example of why no nations have signed on to Trump's proposals:
View attachment 205215

And so it drags on with this mad man The Trumpet.
He obviously has become a one-man band in the good 'ol US of A

 

[IFocus]

Uncertainty remains based on tweets and longer term after this administration.

 

[DannyB0000]

First, both Canada and China retaliated with reciprocal tariffs.
Second, Trump's tariffs are not reciprocal, nor are they based on US deficit quanta. They are whatever Trump wants, such as the 50% levy on goods imported from Brazil, just because Brazil is prosecuting insurrectionist Bolsanaro.
Third, it is not generally in the interest of other nations to impose reciprocal tariffs as it increases the costs of goods in that nation.
Forth, Trump has ZERO agreements in writing with any other nations (including the EU) regarding reciprocal arrangements. In other words the claims Trump has made regarding what other nations are offering in return have never been formalised. Here's one example of why no nations have signed on to Trump's proposals:
View attachment 205215

Canada hasn’t responded with retaliatory tariffs yet, only China has shown it’s willing to go tit for tat on tariff hikes with the Americans.

I think these countries should just ignore Trump and let the Americans eat their tariffs. The trump administration want these tariffs so let them have it.

 

[Knobby22]

Canada hasn’t responded with retaliatory tariffs yet, only China has shown it’s willing to go tit for tat on tariff hikes with the Americans.

I think these countries should just ignore Trump and let the Americans eat their tariffs. The trump administration want these tariffs so let them have it.

You can't ignore the biggest consumers in the world./ world's largest economy.

 

[houtman]

The only country that could realistically reciprocate is China.

First, both Canada and China retaliated with reciprocal tariffs.

Fair point, I missed Canada. However realistically, only China could hold up.

For Canada it looks like US 25%, Canada responds 25%, US 35%, Canada crickets.

Regarding the Canadian PM, - Under Canada’s Conflict of Interest Act, Carney disclosed holdings in 567 entities, of which only three are Canadian: ... The rest are largely U.S.-headquartered firms, making up about 91 % of his portfolio

He's also very much a globalist, so whether he was waving the Canadian or globalist flag is a query.

For that matter how does it explain why America leads the world in bankruptcies, has crumbling infrastructure and cannot even build high speed rail?

This for me is the point.

From afar it looks like the USA is on the slide.

Debt is rising faster than GDP and neither Party has had a plan to arrest the slide.

The options at the last election were more of the same(Democrats), or try something different.

Congress has shown it is incapable of meaningfully decreasing spending so the only option is to grow their way out.

Whether this path will work or not is to be seen(there are headwinds aplenty), but at least it is an attempt get out of the rut they are in.

I really think it is the USA's last roll of the dice.

 

[rederob]

Canada hasn’t responded with retaliatory tariffs yet, only China has shown it’s willing to go tit for tat on tariff hikes with the Americans.

I think these countries should just ignore Trump and let the Americans eat their tariffs. The trump administration want these tariffs so let them have it.

Canada did in fact, as per below:

 

[rederob]

Canada did in fact, as per below:

View attachment 205220

The only country that could realistically reciprocate is China.

Fair point, I missed Canada. However realistically, only China could hold up.

For Canada it looks like US 25%, Canada responds 25%, US 35%, Canada crickets.

I have followed Trump's lunacy closely, and in the months since March when Canada reciprocated, the nation has never been more galvanised in recent decades - since Peirre Trudeau's days. Canada's PM, Mark Carney, has an envious background in finance/economics, as I have pasted below. He knows how to play with reciprocal tariffs in a way that Trump has no capacity to appreciate. More importantly, Carney knows how reciprocal tariffs can be applied to goods affecting American trade without necessarily impeding supply into Canada from elsewhere.

Whether this path will work or not is to be seen (there are headwinds aplenty), but at least it is an attempt get out of the rut they are in.

I really think it is the USA's last roll of the dice.

A whole host of data already suggests Trump's plan has failed, and the full effects of his tariff madness are unlikely to be felt until 2026, as it will take a while for pre-loaded warehouses to empty and American businesses to fully incorporate the cost of incurred tariffs into supplied goods.

 

[TimeISmoney]

The only country that could realistically reciprocate is China.

Fair point, I missed Canada. However realistically, only China could hold up.

For Canada it looks like US 25%, Canada responds 25%, US 35%, Canada crickets.

Regarding the Canadian PM, - Under Canada’s Conflict of Interest Act, Carney disclosed holdings in 567 entities, of which only three are Canadian: ... The rest are largely U.S.-headquartered firms, making up about 91 % of his portfolio

He's also very much a globalist, so whether he was waving the Canadian or globalist flag is a query.

This for me is the point.

From afar it looks like the USA is on the slide.

Debt is rising faster than GDP and neither Party has had a plan to arrest the slide.

The options at the last election were more of the same(Democrats), or try something different.

Congress has shown it is incapable of meaningfully decreasing spending so the only option is to grow their way out.

Whether this path will work or not is to be seen(there are headwinds aplenty), but at least it is an attempt get out of the rut they are in.

I really think it is the USA's last roll of the dice.

When you spend more money than you make, there's no way to climb out of the rut.
At some point all the tricks will be done, and they will default on payments.

Trump's a real estate agent; he sells rocking chairs to grandmas. At the last election, he sold the US a dream, and now he's getting in the way of all the advisers from being able to do anything meaningful, even if it's ever possible at this stage.

Trump has said lie after lie, just like a true salesman. Remember all the countries lining up to do deals with him, he stopped the Ukraine war, and he wasn't involved with Epstein.

What's worse is that he's showing weakness to Russia and China, and is trying to destabilise his allies' economies and making them vulnerable also. This Trump era will be a lesson to the whole world.

 

[farmerge]

When you spend more money than you make, there's no way to climb out of the rut.
At some point all the tricks will be done, and they will default on payments.

Trump's a real estate agent; he sells rocking chairs to grandmas. At the last election, he sold the US a dream, and now he's getting in the way of all the advisers from being able to do anything meaningful, even if it's ever possible at this stage.

Trump has said lie after lie, just like a true salesman. Remember all the countries lining up to do deals with him, he stopped the Ukraine war, and he wasn't involved with Epstein.

What's worse is that he's showing weakness to Russia and China, and is trying to destabilise his allies' economies and making them vulnerable also. This Trump era will be a lesson to the whole world.

@TimeISmoney But will the "dum-dums of the USA ever wake up to the fact that he just a "snake oil salesman".
I would reckon that The Trumpet wouldn't know fact from fiction these days.

 

[TimeISmoney]

@TimeISmoney But will the "dum-dums of the USA ever wake up to the fact that he just a "snake oil salesman".
I would reckon that The Trumpet wouldn't know fact from fiction these days.

It will never be his fault, but he'll surely leave the white house much richer than he came into it. All we can do is hang on for the ride.

 

[farmerge]

It will never be his fault, but he'll surely leave the white house much richer than he came into it. All we can do is hang on for the ride.

Could be a bit breezy in the coming months ahead.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-1-2025

State of U.S. Tariffs: August 1, 2025​

Download the Data

Key Takeaways​

1. The Budget Lab (TBL) estimated the effects all US tariffs and foreign retaliation implemented in 2025 through July 31, including the new list of “reciprocal” tariffs to take effect August 7. TBL analyzed the July 31 tariff rates as if they stayed in effect in perpetuity.
2. Current Tariff Rate: Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.3%, the highest since 1934. After consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will be 17.3%, the highest since 1935.
3. Overall Price Level & Distributional Effects: The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 1.8% in the short-run, the equivalent of an average per household income loss of $2,400 in 2025$. This assumes the Federal Reserve does not react to tariffs and so the real income adjustment comes primarily through prices rather than nominal incomes; if the Federal Reserve reacted, the adjustment could in part come in the form of lower nominal incomes. Annual pre-substitution losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $1,300. The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.5%, a $2,000 loss per household.
4. Commodity Prices: The 2025 tariffs disproportionately affect clothing and textiles, with consumers facing 40% higher shoe prices and 38% higher apparel prices in the short-run. Shoes and apparel prices stay 19% and 17% higher in the long-run respectively.
5. Real GDP Effects: US real GDP growth over 2025 and 2026 is -0.5pp lower each year from all 2025 tariffs. In the long-run, the US economy is persistently -0.4% smaller, the equivalent of $120 billion annually in 2024$.
6. Labor Market Effects: The unemployment rate rises 0.3 percentage point by the end of 2025 and 0.7 percentage point by the end of 2026. Payroll employment is 497,000 lower by the end of 2025.

 

[qldfrog]

https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-1-2025

State of U.S. Tariffs: August 1, 2025​

Download the Data

Key Takeaways​

1. The Budget Lab (TBL) estimated the effects all US tariffs and foreign retaliation implemented in 2025 through July 31, including the new list of “reciprocal” tariffs to take effect August 7. TBL analyzed the July 31 tariff rates as if they stayed in effect in perpetuity.
2. Current Tariff Rate: Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.3%, the highest since 1934. After consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will be 17.3%, the highest since 1935.
3. Overall Price Level & Distributional Effects: The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 1.8% in the short-run, the equivalent of an average per household income loss of $2,400 in 2025$. This assumes the Federal Reserve does not react to tariffs and so the real income adjustment comes primarily through prices rather than nominal incomes; if the Federal Reserve reacted, the adjustment could in part come in the form of lower nominal incomes. Annual pre-substitution losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $1,300. The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.5%, a $2,000 loss per household.
4. Commodity Prices: The 2025 tariffs disproportionately affect clothing and textiles, with consumers facing 40% higher shoe prices and 38% higher apparel prices in the short-run. Shoes and apparel prices stay 19% and 17% higher in the long-run respectively.
5. Real GDP Effects: US real GDP growth over 2025 and 2026 is -0.5pp lower each year from all 2025 tariffs. In the long-run, the US economy is persistently -0.4% smaller, the equivalent of $120 billion annually in 2024$.
6. Labor Market Effects: The unemployment rate rises 0.3 percentage point by the end of 2025 and 0.7 percentage point by the end of 2026. Payroll employment is 497,000 lower by the end of 2025.

Time will tell, $2k per household is roughly the extra power bill cost of the netzero drama here, wo considering lost jobs and closed factories.
If this works at redirecting more jobs and so wealth into the US, it is a bargain..
And if money from the ghettos is spent not on Nikes or Jordans, well ..what do you think?

 

[basilio]

https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-1-2025

State of U.S. Tariffs: August 1, 2025​

Download the Data

Key Takeaways​

1. The Budget Lab (TBL) estimated the effects all US tariffs and foreign retaliation implemented in 2025 through July 31, including the new list of “reciprocal” tariffs to take effect August 7. TBL analyzed the July 31 tariff rates as if they stayed in effect in perpetuity.
2. Current Tariff Rate: Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.3%, the highest since 1934. After consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will be 17.3%, the highest since 1935.
3. Overall Price Level & Distributional Effects: The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 1.8% in the short-run, the equivalent of an average per household income loss of $2,400 in 2025$. This assumes the Federal Reserve does not react to tariffs and so the real income adjustment comes primarily through prices rather than nominal incomes; if the Federal Reserve reacted, the adjustment could in part come in the form of lower nominal incomes. Annual pre-substitution losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $1,300. The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.5%, a $2,000 loss per household.
4. Commodity Prices: The 2025 tariffs disproportionately affect clothing and textiles, with consumers facing 40% higher shoe prices and 38% higher apparel prices in the short-run. Shoes and apparel prices stay 19% and 17% higher in the long-run respectively.
5. Real GDP Effects: US real GDP growth over 2025 and 2026 is -0.5pp lower each year from all 2025 tariffs. In the long-run, the US economy is persistently -0.4% smaller, the equivalent of $120 billion annually in 2024$.
6. Labor Market Effects: The unemployment rate rises 0.3 percentage point by the end of 2025 and 0.7 percentage point by the end of 2026. Payroll employment is 497,000 lower by the end of 2025.

$2000 a year is a serious hit for low to middle income households in the US. The economic reality is that for people on $40-60 K a year in the US their income is already spent on rent/food/basic bills/car/petrol/health insurance. There is just very little discretionary money left.

On top of that the US budget is going to take the axe to many low income support packages.

Distribution of household income U.S. 2023| Statista

In 2023, just over 50 percent of Americans had an annual household income that was less than 75,000 U.S.

www.statista.com

 

[IFocus]

Not that long ago 60% of US house holds could not afford an unexpected bill of $500 USD without taking out a loan, anyone know if this has changed?

 

[TimeISmoney]

Not that long ago 60% of US house holds could not afford an unexpected bill of $500 USD without taking out a loan, anyone know if this has changed?

Most likely not, delinquencies are still rising.

The Broad, Continuing Rise in Delinquent U.S. Credit Card Debt Revisited​

The Broad, Continuing Rise in Delinquent U.S. Credit Card Debt Revisited

The share of Americans late on credit card payments and the share of debt that’s past due continue rising widely, but growth in delinquency rates has slowed since early 2024.

www.stlouisfed.org