Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Antirnator]

I just thought I'd repost my original post when I started this thread. My intention was to discuss the effects of Trump's policies on Stock and Economic matters. Now I understand that Trump's personality and personality disorders are pertinent to his effect on stocks and economics I'd just like to state that there are numerous other threads on which the finer points of psychology and his defects can be discussed. It does become a bit stretched, though understandable, when these matters consume some pages on this thread. It is in the nature of those with personality disorders that they divert people from their day to day life and important matters. Trump successfully does this.

Now, stocks and economics are important for this thread, and it has been illuminating to have a back and forth on psychology and I by no means wish to detract from the importance of this to decisions taken in the Trump administration. Suffice it to say that Trump is "bonkers" as an old friend, a Prof of Psychiatry, used describe patients who caused heated discussion among his colleagues.

The world is in quite a mess, there is danger and opportunity in the decisions of the Trump administration for members of ASF, so I'd ask members to continue discussions of these matters, to the effects on stocks, ETF's, commodities, futures and other derivatives, so that we refine our decisions and profit or limit losses in these interesting times.

gg

Yes, reading persistent and consistent personal attacks as arguments is pointless.

Discussing policy and its effects would be nice but the envy of Trump's massive ego and massive successes in life will only drive people to finger pointing, cherry-picking and false equivalencies to take down this nearly dead American Icon.

Self-interest is normal. Tariffs are normal. Power misused is normal. EVERYBODY wants to be in the US economy because it is larger than the rest of the world. Predictions are normal except now they are used as arguments to say someone is a bad person.

Currently, the most important thing is the almost completed trade deal with the EU, India and the possible trade deal with protectionist Japan. Canada has aligned itself with the EU so how does that work. What does this do for ASX companies? Iron ore, oil, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals etc.? There are so many moving parts atm it is hard to keep track and not go insane.

 

[Knobby22]

Yes, reading persistent and consistent personal attacks as arguments is pointless.

Discussing policy and its effects would be nice but the envy of Trump's massive ego and massive successes in life will only drive people to finger pointing, cherry-picking and false equivalencies to take down this nearly dead American Icon.

Self-interest is normal. Tariffs are normal. Power misused is normal. EVERYBODY wants to be in the US economy because it is larger than the rest of the world. Predictions are normal except now they are used as arguments to say someone is a bad person.

Currently, the most important thing is the almost completed trade deal with the EU, India and the possible trade deal with protectionist Japan. Canada has aligned itself with the EU so how does that work. What does this do for ASX companies? Iron ore, oil, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals etc.? There are so many moving parts atm it is hard to keep track and not go insane.

Canada is our competitor in many areas.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Canada is our competitor in many areas.

Although the Fin Times reckons Canada is now tilting towards closer ties with Europe and ditching the US. so if we keep our love affair going with those two fat butches ( just letting on to be a Kiwi ) the USA and China we should be OK until China invades Taiwan. In the latter case everyone will be f**ked anyway.

gg

 

[TimeISmoney]

Yes, reading persistent and consistent personal attacks as arguments is pointless.

Discussing policy and its effects would be nice but the envy of Trump's massive ego and massive successes in life will only drive people to finger pointing, cherry-picking and false equivalencies to take down this nearly dead American Icon.

Self-interest is normal. Tariffs are normal. Power misused is normal. EVERYBODY wants to be in the US economy because it is larger than the rest of the world. Predictions are normal except now they are used as arguments to say someone is a bad person.

Currently, the most important thing is the almost completed trade deal with the EU, India and the possible trade deal with protectionist Japan. Canada has aligned itself with the EU so how does that work. What does this do for ASX companies? Iron ore, oil, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals etc.? There are so many moving parts atm it is hard to keep track and not go insane.

Our main customer is China, and that is what many forget.
When China suffers, Australia suffers. The US is only 5.4% of our exports; the problem lies in the relationship between China and the US.

 

[macca]

Although the Fin Times reckons Canada is now tilting towards closer ties with Europe and ditching the US. so if we keep our love affair going with those two fat butches ( just letting on to be a Kiwi ) the USA and China we should be OK until China invades Taiwan. In the latter case everyone will be f**ked anyway.

gg

Read an article in the newspaper on the weekend saying that Canada are looking to Australia for increased bilateral trade to replace the USA

Canadian pension funds have Huge land holdings in agricultural Australia, the Mounties pension fund does actually have money (a la our future fund) and has billions

Seven leading Australian farming groups partner with PSP Investments to support Clontarf and Stars programs

None

www.investpsp.com

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Read an article in the newspaper on the weekend saying that Canada are looking to Australia for increased bilateral trade to replace the USA

Canadian pension funds have Huge land holdings in agricultural Australia, the Mounties pension fund does actually have money (a la our future fund) and has billions

Seven leading Australian farming groups partner with PSP Investments to support Clontarf and Stars programs

None

www.investpsp.com

There are many bilateral ties. BHP is developing ( at some cost ) a large potash field in Canada.

gg

 

[Smurf1976]

Read an article in the newspaper on the weekend saying that Canada are looking to Australia for increased bilateral trade to replace the USA

Oil is an obvious one as long as either country can set up sufficient refining.

Canada exports oil, primarily as crude oil to the US which has made it abundantly clear they don't want it.

Australia imports most of its oil, albeit largely as refined products.

 

[Smurf1976]

Our main customer is China

Agreed although it needs to be considered how that will evolve as segmentation (the opposite of globalisation) unfolds.

That in my view is a secular trend, it's something that'll be ongoing in the background over an extended period measured in decades. The world order in economics terms isn't going back to the one we've known.

Also needs to be considered that Australia's trade with China is heavily dominated by a small number of products. Any major shift in the demand and price of those alters the dynamic hugely.

 

[Smurf1976]

What does this do for ASX companies? Iron ore, oil, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals etc.?

In the specific case of oil, it's the most readily tradable of all commodities.

Any company with oil to sell will find someone to buy it that's a given. Only question being who that is but I wouldn't be worried about someone having oil and not being able to sell it as long as they're willing to sell at the prevailing market price.

It's not like manufactured goods or agriculture where there's often a conscious choice of who to buy from, or gas where the physical logistics of moving it often dictate the answer due to the infrastructure required and the cost of that.

 

[qldfrog]

In the specific case of oil, it's the most readily tradable of all commodities.

Any company with oil to sell will find someone to buy it that's a given. Only question being who that is but I wouldn't be worried about someone having oil and not being able to sell it as long as they're willing to sell at the prevailing market price.

It's not like manufactured goods or agriculture where there's often a conscious choice of who to buy from, or gas where the physical logistics of moving it often dictate the answer due to the infrastructure required and the cost of that.

Imho, Canada is nearly as bad as us, just nearer from the US and so was able to keep some manufacturing
They have green and red tape to the hilt, complacent population for the most part too
I do not see them or us building refining capacity within years or at any proper cost.
They will ship their oil raw .
I do not believe much in synergy between loosers: Canada, EU, Australia hummm
If you remember your schoolyard, loosers associating were not exactly great for the individuals involved....

 

[Antirnator]

Our main customer is China, and that is what many forget.
When China suffers, Australia suffers. The US is only 5.4% of our exports; the problem lies in the relationship between China and the US.

This is precisely why Australia needs policy that incentivises manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and agriculture, not policy that cannibalises these areas to death. Developing pathways into the US market should be a high priority e.g. mining and processing critical minerals and uranium. The 'decarbonisation of steel' is code for more bureaucracy taking us back into the stone age.

Inertia is the problem not China's economy suffering (which has been going on for a decade now). Australia has pathways into the US markets all that needs to be done is to open the doors.

 

[TimeISmoney]

This is precisely why Australia needs policy that incentivises manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and agriculture, not policy that cannibalises these areas to death. Developing pathways into the US market should be a high priority e.g. mining and processing critical minerals and uranium. The 'decarbonisation of steel' is code for more bureaucracy taking us back into the stone age.

Inertia is the problem not China's economy suffering (which has been going on for a decade now). Australia has pathways into the US markets all that needs to be done is to open the doors.

Just imagine what would happen if we had 50% trade with the US right now. The US is a master manipulator, and nothing will change. Just like it squeezed Japan and China, it will do it to everyone else. Their ever increasing debt to make them the biggest consumers worldwide is unsustainable in the long term, and someone like Trump wants to bring everyone down around them with themselves.

You always have to keep on trading with multiple nations, but Australia doesn't have that luxury with how it's positioned. Be careful what you wish for because I worked in manufacturing in the 80's and 90's, and it was profit over life and environment.

We have to import immigrants to do the low paying jobs as it is, unless our govt supports innovation and development companies, nothing will ever change here.

 

[TimeISmoney]

 

[Smurf1976]

Be careful what you wish for because I worked in manufacturing in the 80's and 90's, and it was profit over life and environment.

The problem for Australia is the lack of alternatives, that there's no real option to continue the status quo.

Australia's top 3 exports are iron ore, coal and gas.

Those paying close attention will be all too aware that we're starting to lose competitiveness in coal and no that isn't due to politics. It's just that the companies insist the mines run at a profit, miners are relatively well paid, the industry's somewhat bloated and that's running into geological reality of slowly but surely increasing extraction costs in real terms. Either the shareholders take a hit, the miners take a hit, efficiency is improved or we're going to see more like this:

Troubled coal mine enters administration after defaulting on $174m loan

The troubled Dartbrook coal mine has plunged into receivership and administration just months after it reopened following years of disuse.

www.abc.net.au

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/queenslands-burton-coal-mine-could-shut-leaving-hundreds-without-work/news-story/bfbd6585ef2b9f12934c24b7a06e1a1b

Griffin Coal set to deplete $220 million in WA taxpayer support nine months early

Premier Roger Cook revealed to parliament that the government had so far made $182.7 million worth of payments from the $220 million support package for Griffin Coal.

www.watoday.com.au

I've intentionally linked to different media organisations and states there, trying to avoid any inference of politics or that it's only one media organisation saying it.

Now add in the well documented issues with housing and I'll suggest Australia's present economic model has essentially painted itself into a corner and is fast running out of room. It's that situation that leads many, including myself, to see manufacturing and high value services as the only real option going forward, being fully aware that won't sustain the living standards we've had in recent times but a modest fall beats a crash, right?

What Trump's doing is making that reality somewhat more apparent than it would otherwise be but it was always going to occur. For Australia, Trump has perhaps done the equivalent of announcing the fire using a megaphone before the alarm sounded thus giving more time to evacuate the theatre. He didn't light the fire however, he didn't cause the situation, he just noticed the smoke.

The smart thing for Australia at this point is to take advantage of the opportunity. Use it as the trigger to restructure.

It goes without saying quite a bit of capital's going to be written off at some point. That's inevitable following misallocation.

 

[TimeISmoney]

The problem for Australia is the lack of alternatives, that there's no real option to continue the status quo.

Australia's top 3 exports are iron ore, coal and gas.

Those paying close attention will be all too aware that we're starting to lose competitiveness in coal and no that isn't due to politics. It's just that the companies insist the mines run at a profit, miners are relatively well paid, the industry's somewhat bloated and that's running into geological reality of slowly but surely increasing extraction costs in real terms. Either the shareholders take a hit, the miners take a hit, efficiency is improved or we're going to see more like this:

Troubled coal mine enters administration after defaulting on $174m loan

The troubled Dartbrook coal mine has plunged into receivership and administration just months after it reopened following years of disuse.

www.abc.net.au

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/queenslands-burton-coal-mine-could-shut-leaving-hundreds-without-work/news-story/bfbd6585ef2b9f12934c24b7a06e1a1b

Griffin Coal set to deplete $220 million in WA taxpayer support nine months early

Premier Roger Cook revealed to parliament that the government had so far made $182.7 million worth of payments from the $220 million support package for Griffin Coal.

www.watoday.com.au

I've intentionally linked to different media organisations and states there, trying to avoid any inference of politics or that it's only one media organisation saying it.

Now add in the well documented issues with housing and I'll suggest Australia's present economic model has essentially painted itself into a corner and is fast running out of room. It's that situation that leads many, including myself, to see manufacturing and high value services as the only real option going forward, being fully aware that won't sustain the living standards we've had in recent times but a modest fall beats a crash, right?

What Trump's doing is making that reality somewhat more apparent than it would otherwise be but it was always going to occur. For Australia, Trump has perhaps done the equivalent of announcing the fire using a megaphone before the alarm sounded thus giving more time to evacuate the theatre. He didn't light the fire however, he didn't cause the situation, he just noticed the smoke.

The smart thing for Australia at this point is to take advantage of the opportunity. Use it as the trigger to restructure.

It goes without saying quite a bit of capital's going to be written off at some point. That's inevitable following misallocation.

It's going to happen with iron ore as well; low quality ore is going to be a problem with production efficiencies.
The only thing we have going for Australia is that it's a reliable source due to its stability.

The problem in the US is that they racked up a large amount of debt by living beyond their means, and now they're struggling to pay it off. Australia is just another copycat that is 10 years behind, everything else I just see as a red herring.

The large corporations in the US are just out of control, you only have to go as far as to see all the damage done by offshore oil rigs where some of the richest companies in the world have abandoned their responsibilities via technicalities.

 

[Knobby22]

The problem for Australia is the lack of alternatives, that there's no real option to continue the status quo.

Australia's top 3 exports are iron ore, coal and gas.

Those paying close attention will be all too aware that we're starting to lose competitiveness in coal and no that isn't due to politics. It's just that the companies insist the mines run at a profit, miners are relatively well paid, the industry's somewhat bloated and that's running into geological reality of slowly but surely increasing extraction costs in real terms. Either the shareholders take a hit, the miners take a hit, efficiency is improved or we're going to see more like this:

Troubled coal mine enters administration after defaulting on $174m loan

The troubled Dartbrook coal mine has plunged into receivership and administration just months after it reopened following years of disuse.

www.abc.net.au

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/queenslands-burton-coal-mine-could-shut-leaving-hundreds-without-work/news-story/bfbd6585ef2b9f12934c24b7a06e1a1b

Griffin Coal set to deplete $220 million in WA taxpayer support nine months early

Premier Roger Cook revealed to parliament that the government had so far made $182.7 million worth of payments from the $220 million support package for Griffin Coal.

www.watoday.com.au

I've intentionally linked to different media organisations and states there, trying to avoid any inference of politics or that it's only one media organisation saying it.

Now add in the well documented issues with housing and I'll suggest Australia's present economic model has essentially painted itself into a corner and is fast running out of room. It's that situation that leads many, including myself, to see manufacturing and high value services as the only real option going forward, being fully aware that won't sustain the living standards we've had in recent times but a modest fall beats a crash, right?

What Trump's doing is making that reality somewhat more apparent than it would otherwise be but it was always going to occur. For Australia, Trump has perhaps done the equivalent of announcing the fire using a megaphone before the alarm sounded thus giving more time to evacuate the theatre. He didn't light the fire however, he didn't cause the situation, he just noticed the smoke.

The smart thing for Australia at this point is to take advantage of the opportunity. Use it as the trigger to restructure.

It goes without saying quite a bit of capital's going to be written off at some point. That's inevitable following misallocation.

Support packages for coal mines. Essentially stranded assets. WA obviously has too much money.

 

[Rosscoe62]

Fear and Greed Index currently 76 (extreme greed)

Certainly plenty of “Mania” around in this final phase of Euphoria …

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/23/investing/us-stock-market

 

[qldfrog]

Usa Japan deal done.
Another Trump win it seems ..via Euro news so will need to see details

 

[Knobby22]

Australia is being quite clever, possibly with the help of some friends within the USA.

1. Paying the next AUKUS payment on time without comment.
2. Scott Morrison appearing in congress today saying Australia was punished by China for being too closely aligned with the USA.
3. Allowing US beef into the country with appropriate checks with Cattle Australia's blessing.

The USA may act on the tariffs without trying to affect domestic policy now.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

seems like the fetters are off AI with the USA not prepared to let the Chinese steal one on them.

...
maybe we need the AI6? The PNABMM, or Palantir, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta and Microsoft? Or, maybe just the MNMs from that list?

The year-to-date performance of the various components of the magnificent seven – Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla – already suggested that the band was breaking up. The cool kids – Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia – are up by an average of 22 per cent. Amazon and Alphabet shares have basically tracked sideways, while Apple and Tesla are both down 12 per cent.

The magnificent seven still accounts for 35 per cent of the S&P 500, and the focus on these companies isn’t shifting soon.

But the growing divergence in their strategic positioning makes it clear investors need to be very careful about seeing the world’s technology leaders into one bucket.