DrBourse General Help for Beginners

[finicky]

And for todays useless bit of information I humbly present the following:-

 

[Antirnator]

And for todays useless bit of information I humbly present the following:-

There's only one day that is historically 'Black Friday' - that was when the Knights Templar were wiped out on Friday the 13th October 1307.

Today just happens to be an ordinary Friday, but unfortunately it's dated the 13th.

Friday 13 October 1307, is a date that echoes across history.
On that date, Philip IV, King of France, arrested hundreds of Knights Templar in France.
Philip had been out to get the Templars since 1302, it was simply that, as one of the richest organisations in Europe, the Templars had turned down a demand from Philip for a loan he needed to further his military adventures”.

This had nothing to do with the global mythology that has since grown up around the Knights Templar, and it especially had nothing to do with the Holy Grail.

The next Black Friday anniversaries are in the years, 2028, 2034 & 2045....“

Any other “Black Friday” is just a marketing ploy..

try this site – http://www.undiscoveredscotland.co.uk/temple/temple/index.html

Cheers
DrB

 

[DrBourse]

More information for Beginners – All Snapshots are as at Sunday Morning 9/6/24…. I will use CBA as the example stock….
View attachment 178398

The subject this time is - What Do Brokers mean when they say:-

A - “12Mth Price Forecast Average”:-
View attachment 178400

OR

B - “1 year Price Forecast”:-
View attachment 178401

OR

C - Chat Room Valuations where individuals may suggest the stock has a Value of $120.00+….

OR

D - People like myself, when I relay analysis like the following:-
View attachment 178402
Where I quote my calculated Intrinsic Value @ $85.64, which is Based on the Companys Current Balance Sheet Financials and any other Up-to-Date Data that I can locate , and I also relay a separate list of recent Individual Broker Calls that average $91.83 over the past few months….

Examples A, B & C are producing a Guesstimated Future Top Price – Admittedly Broking Houses receive Briefings directly from Companies, the problem with that is that the Broking houses then somehow manage to ‘embellish’ those briefing figures to ridiculous levels, they manage to use words like, "our proprietary model suggests, our proprietary Systems Suggest, we have lifted our FY earnings by 15%, we have lifted our segment volumes by 17%, we expect, we anticipate, we calculate, we project, we predict, etc, etc"......

Each Analyst/Broker has their own versions of 'how to calculate an IV,..... for example – one broker uses a proprietary analytic framework that helps clients uncover value, adjusting for distortions and ambiguities created by local accounting regulations....... It adjusts EPS for one-time events, capitalizes operating leases (where their use is significant), and converts inventory from LIFO costing to a FIFO basis, and also emphasizes the separation of operating performance of a company from its financing for a more complete view of how a company generates earnings.......

Broking Houses can’t be seen to just relay the Co Briefings ‘word for word’ as the Companies quote them – that would render the Brokers Reports as “useless repetition”......


In Example D, my calculations are for an Intrinsic Value - A word of WARNING to the **FA** Newbies - An Intrinsic Value is not a TA call - Intrinsic Value Per Share is not a call on where the Share Price will go to - Intrinsic Value is basically what the company is worth Per Share, based on the company’s published Financial Statements - Basically if the company was ‘wound up’, then each shareholder should get that Intrinsic amount - they would not get the current Share Price.......

An IV can be calculated in numerous different ways – A correct and Valid IV relies a lot on what formulas are used, such as, DCFM, DDM, DDMF, PRESVAL, RIV, IVRR, NROE, CGVI, GIVF, BIVF – and there are numerous others - MAKE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND WHICH FORMULAS ARE BEING USED and what the implications are relating to each formula....

The range of Values in this post highlights the differences…. $120+ down to $80....

Do you use the highest figure of $120+, or do you use the lowest figure of $80, as itemised in this post….

The moral of the story here is that “You must understand the figures you refer to”….

Don’t believe anyone – DYOR….

Cheers..
DrB.

PS- It may help if you look at the DrB FA Help for Beginners Forum, where the subject of Intrinsic Value is explained in more depth....

As I mentioned in my above post on 9/6/24, CBA has been very expensive for many years now.
Finally someone has woken up to it.
The following Link is worth a read.

What happens to the ASX 200 if CBA experiences a selloff?

Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) has become a colossus on the ASX. Here's what history says about heavyweight selloffs.

www.marketindex.com.au

 

[Sean K]

As I mentioned in my above post on 9/6/24, CBA has been very expensive for many years now.
Finally someone has woken up to it.
The following Link is worth a read.

What happens to the ASX 200 if CBA experiences a selloff?

Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) has become a colossus on the ASX. Here's what history says about heavyweight selloffs.

www.marketindex.com.au

Not sure what to do with this Dr B.

I'm only holding ETFs that cover the ASX 200 that may or may not be infected by CBA being overpriced and going through a significant correction.

Is CBA the short of the century?

Where to Look Instead​

For investors concerned about CBA's dominance, history suggests looking beyond the banking sector entirely. UBS points to large-cap healthcare stocks as a potential alternative, citing their relatively attractive valuations, ability to attract investment flows, and prospects for earnings growth.

The key takeaway for investors is that when market giants fall, the pain often spreads throughout their sectors. Rather than trying to pick winners within the same industry, successful navigation of these periods has historically required broader diversification across different parts of the market.

 

[divs4ever]

Is CBA the short of the century?

maybe , but given the sudden shift in uncertainty surely MQG would have some profit-takers , and possibly trend down for a while

( i hold MQG but don't panic i am waiting to see if $20 returns like it did in 2011 )

 

[DrBourse]

Not sure what to do with this Dr B.

I'm only holding ETFs that cover the ASX 200 that may or may not be infected by CBA being overpriced and going through a significant correction.

Is CBA the short of the century?

Hi Sean,
Could be, CBA is Overpriced and similar in many ways to the CSL $350 TP, and we know CSL has been a very predictable Short Call.

 

[DrBourse]

Hi Sean,
Could be, CBA is Overpriced and similar in many ways to the CSL $350 TP, and we know CSL has been a very predictable Short Call.

There are quite a few more Overpriced stocks, might post my list one day.
Nobody believed my CSL calls that started June 24, not much point in dropping more clues now.

 

[DrBourse]

Something else for those "new to trading" to watch out for.
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/announcements

I use the above (FREE) site as they list upcomming Announcements 20minutes before they are available for the public to read, it's not earth shattering info, but it gives me some idea that something is about to happen particularly if the upcomming Announcement is Price Sensitive (the little Red $ sign).

Although, most times, Commsec seem to show the Announcement as being available Immediately it is released - Dunno why or how.

For example.
This Announcement was shown on the Market Index Site as being received @ 8.39am 4/7/25 as shown below.

BUT.
The Commsec Site at 8.41.56am still does not show that 8.39am announcement.

Still dunno why.

NOTICE that the Indicative Price on the Commsec screen shows a 2.09% or $1.40 pullback is imminent - So I would assume that the 8.39am 4/7/25 Announcement is not gunna be all that much Good News.
Still no 8.39am Announcement for ALL on 4/7/25 by 9.04.30am - dear ole Commsuc Fails again.

AND by 9.04.30am Commsec fail again.

Thats abt 25minutes after the ASX Release, and dear ole Commsec still have not updated their Announcement List.
Cheers
DrB

 

[ShareSuccess]

Yep you would have done well on this stock!

SLH $ Silk Logistics Holdings

$2.10

+0.38 (22.09%)

127,598

$269,002

10:06am 04/07 AEST

$1.72

1.24 - 2.10

+68.00%

$171.2M

 

[DrBourse]

@ShareSuccess
SLH ?? - Wrong Forum Perhaps

 

[divs4ever]

Something else for those "new to trading" to watch out for.
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/announcements

I use the above (FREE) site as they list upcomming Announcements 20minutes before they are available for the public to read, it's not earth shattering info, but it gives me some idea that something is about to happen particularly if the upcomming Announcement is Price Sensitive (the little Red $ sign).

Although, most times, Commsec seem to show the Announcement as being available Immediately it is released - Dunno why or how.

For example.
This Announcement was shown on the Market Index Site as being received @ 8.39am 4/7/25 as shown below.

BUT.
The Commsec Site at 8.41.56am still does not show that 8.39am announcement.

Still dunno why.

NOTICE that the Indicative Price on the Commsec screen shows a 2.09% or $1.40 pullback is imminent - So I would assume that the 8.39am 4/7/25 Announcement is not gunna be all that much Good News.
Still no 8.39am Announcement for ALL on 4/7/25 by 9.04.30am - dear ole Commsuc Fails again.

AND by 9.04.30am Commsec fail again.

Thats abt 25minutes after the ASX Release, and dear ole Commsec still have not updated their Announcement List.
Cheers
DrB

yes the delay there often befuddles me also

but thanks for the tip about the other site ( i will bookmark it )

( sometimes Bell Direct is more illuminating but not always so )

cheers