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announced very late this evening
GOR - Gold Road Resources
- Thread starter Wysiwyg
- Start date
Sean K
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Management pushing for a higher price.
It seems these two companies do not get on.
It seems these two companies do not get on.
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@Sean K
I hope the negotiations fall through, even at cost of a lower share price, and I think now GOR has a lot going for it in the context of a higher gold price (eventually).
Their exploration tenements also are starting to look fruitful - Golden Highway, Yamana, Gilmore.
"Gold Road notes that the receipt of the offer coincided with a lower March 2025 quarter production due to maintenance on the primary crusher and the failure of two conveyor belts,” Gold Road said.
“The offer attributes no value at all to the potential underground expansion of the Gruyere mine. As such, the Gold Road board formed the view that it is not in the best interest of its shareholders to accept the offer and rejected the offer on March 14.”
Seems so - "opportunistic".
I hope the negotiations fall through, even at cost of a lower share price, and I think now GOR has a lot going for it in the context of a higher gold price (eventually).
Their exploration tenements also are starting to look fruitful - Golden Highway, Yamana, Gilmore.
"Gold Road notes that the receipt of the offer coincided with a lower March 2025 quarter production due to maintenance on the primary crusher and the failure of two conveyor belts,” Gold Road said.
“The offer attributes no value at all to the potential underground expansion of the Gruyere mine. As such, the Gold Road board formed the view that it is not in the best interest of its shareholders to accept the offer and rejected the offer on March 14.”
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Without letting the shareholders know (are they really part owners of the business?) .
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Following a very timely SELL recommendation for Northern Star Resources (NST), Greg thinks it's time to take profits on GOR. I will be holding through any correction.
Fat Tail Investment Advisory
Tuesday, 29 April 2025
By Greg Canavan
SELL Gold Road Resources
"Dear finicky,
Given the huge run-up in the gold price and gold stocks in recent months, near-term upside appears limited. Downside risks are much greater in my view.
It’s therefore prudent to continue to reduce our portfolio exposure to gold.
We have two gold companies in the portfolio, Gold Road Resources [ASX:GOR] and West African Resources [ASX:WAF].
WAF remains incredibly compelling on a valuation basis, so I’m happy to continue holding, despite the likelihood of a decent gold price correction unfolding soon.
But Gold Road Resources is less so.
The Gruyere operation remains well run and highly profitable. But the low mine life means value is dependent on the underground drilling campaign which still has a lot of work to do.
There is the potential for an enhanced offer from JV partner Gold Fields, but if I were them, I wouldn’t rush to do so.
In addition, GOR will now have material exposure (around $1 billion) to Northern Star Resources [ASX:NST] via its circa 17% ownership of De Grey. NST formally takes over De Grey next week.
The problem with valuing gold stocks here is that they become speculations rather than investments. Is the current gold price realistic for valuing gold stocks?
Probably not.
Back in March, I valued GOR at around $3.30–$3.45. It was a low probability valuation as I was trying to account for Gruyere’s current low mine life.
Given the fact that the gold price rallied significantly after that, and the share price only managed to get into the $3.30 range for two trading days, suggests the valuation could be an optimistic one…at least in the near term.
Looking at the chart, GOR has performed just as I expected. After trading for years in a rising wedge pattern, it broke out above resistance in December and surged higher.
The large, vertical nature of the move suggests looks to be running out of steam. While there is valuation and potential corporate activity to support the share price on the downside, I can’t see much short-term upside.
Rather than being greedy and hoping for more, I think it’s prudent to call time on this investment, bank our gains, and look to deploy our capital in opportunities with a better risk/reward profile.
I initially recommended GOR in March 2020 at $1.15 per share. With 8.2 cents in dividends, that gives us a total return of 188%, assuming a sale price of $3.08 (the share price at the time of writing).
Importantly, it also represents a compound annual return of 23% for the life of the investment. This is well above our 12% target.
Like with the NST investment, this demonstrates the benefit of investing long-term in businesses when you buy in at an attractive price."
Fat Tail Investment Advisory
Tuesday, 29 April 2025
By Greg Canavan
SELL Gold Road Resources
"Dear finicky,
Given the huge run-up in the gold price and gold stocks in recent months, near-term upside appears limited. Downside risks are much greater in my view.
It’s therefore prudent to continue to reduce our portfolio exposure to gold.
We have two gold companies in the portfolio, Gold Road Resources [ASX:GOR] and West African Resources [ASX:WAF].
WAF remains incredibly compelling on a valuation basis, so I’m happy to continue holding, despite the likelihood of a decent gold price correction unfolding soon.
But Gold Road Resources is less so.
The Gruyere operation remains well run and highly profitable. But the low mine life means value is dependent on the underground drilling campaign which still has a lot of work to do.
There is the potential for an enhanced offer from JV partner Gold Fields, but if I were them, I wouldn’t rush to do so.
In addition, GOR will now have material exposure (around $1 billion) to Northern Star Resources [ASX:NST] via its circa 17% ownership of De Grey. NST formally takes over De Grey next week.
The problem with valuing gold stocks here is that they become speculations rather than investments. Is the current gold price realistic for valuing gold stocks?
Probably not.
Back in March, I valued GOR at around $3.30–$3.45. It was a low probability valuation as I was trying to account for Gruyere’s current low mine life.
Given the fact that the gold price rallied significantly after that, and the share price only managed to get into the $3.30 range for two trading days, suggests the valuation could be an optimistic one…at least in the near term.
Looking at the chart, GOR has performed just as I expected. After trading for years in a rising wedge pattern, it broke out above resistance in December and surged higher.
The large, vertical nature of the move suggests looks to be running out of steam. While there is valuation and potential corporate activity to support the share price on the downside, I can’t see much short-term upside.
Rather than being greedy and hoping for more, I think it’s prudent to call time on this investment, bank our gains, and look to deploy our capital in opportunities with a better risk/reward profile.
I initially recommended GOR in March 2020 at $1.15 per share. With 8.2 cents in dividends, that gives us a total return of 188%, assuming a sale price of $3.08 (the share price at the time of writing).
Importantly, it also represents a compound annual return of 23% for the life of the investment. This is well above our 12% target.
Like with the NST investment, this demonstrates the benefit of investing long-term in businesses when you buy in at an attractive price."
Sean K
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It's nice that Greg calls you by your first name.
Gee, it's been a great run for gold bugs who stuck fat over the past few years.
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GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED
Security Code: GOR
Pause in Trading
Trading in the securities of the entity will be temporarily paused pending a further announcement.
i hold GOR
Security Code: GOR
Pause in Trading
Trading in the securities of the entity will be temporarily paused pending a further announcement.
i hold GOR
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Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) – Request for Trading Halt
Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) Gold Road or the Company) requests that an immediate trading halt be placed on its securities.
In accordance with Listing Rule 17.1, the Company provides the following information regarding the trading halt request:
1. The trading halt is requested following media speculation regarding a potential change of control transaction.
2. Gold Road anticipates that the trading halt will be lifted on or before market open on Tuesday, 6 May 2025 by provision of an announcement to the ASX regarding the corporate transaction.
3. Gold Road is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted.
4. The Company requests that the trading halt remain in place until the earlier of the time the Company makes an announcement in relation to this potential transaction,or the commencement of trading on Tuesday, 6 May 2025.5.
Gold Road is not aware of any other information necessary to inform the market about the trading halt.
Yours sincerely Julie Jones General Counsel & Joint Company Secretary
i hold GOR
Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) Gold Road or the Company) requests that an immediate trading halt be placed on its securities.
In accordance with Listing Rule 17.1, the Company provides the following information regarding the trading halt request:
1. The trading halt is requested following media speculation regarding a potential change of control transaction.
2. Gold Road anticipates that the trading halt will be lifted on or before market open on Tuesday, 6 May 2025 by provision of an announcement to the ASX regarding the corporate transaction.
3. Gold Road is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted.
4. The Company requests that the trading halt remain in place until the earlier of the time the Company makes an announcement in relation to this potential transaction,or the commencement of trading on Tuesday, 6 May 2025.5.
Gold Road is not aware of any other information necessary to inform the market about the trading halt.
Yours sincerely Julie Jones General Counsel & Joint Company Secretary
i hold GOR
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Still do not understand why this not released before opening?
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i suspect media speculation and an unpleasant share price move , might have inspired it ( if someone at the ASX didn't make a phone call )
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after a quick glance at the course of sales , was somebody setting a trap ( for insider traders )
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It does smell a bit
Sean K
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Have to assume Gold Fields has upped their offer.
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a strange market reaction if you are correct
more likely a big holder has sold ( or is selling out ) from the market movement and the buys/sells in the market waiting for a re-open
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@Sean K well I for certainly hope so
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well if the official release had of been phrased differently , i would have guessed that a bidder had walked away .
the NST-DEG is a done deal , so unless that deal now looks unattractive ....
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GOLD ROAD ENTERS INTO SCHEME IMPLEMENTATION DEED WITH GOLD FIELDS
HIGHLIGHTS
Gold Road has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Gold Fields under which Gold Fields has agreed to acquire 100 per cent of the issued share capital in Gold Road by way of a scheme of arrangement.
Under the terms of the Scheme, Gold Road shareholders will receive a fixed cash consideration of A$2.52 per share (less any special dividend paid prior to implementation of the Scheme),plus a variable cash consideration equal to the full value of each Gold Road shareholders’ proportionate holding in Northern Star, calculated by reference to the date the Scheme becomes effective (valued at A$0.88 per share if the Scheme was effective on 2 May 2025).
As at 2 May 2025, the total cash consideration equates to A$3.40 per share, representing a43 per cent premium to Gold Road’s undisturbed closing share price on 21 March 20251, and a 39 per cent premium to Gold Road’s undisturbed 3-month VWAP on 21 March 2025. As at 2 May 2025 the value of the total cash consideration is 12 per cent higher than the value of the consideration proposed in the initial non-binding indicative offer announced by Gold Fields on 24 March 20252.
Gold Road intends to declare a fully franked special dividend should the Scheme become effective.
The final amount will be determined by Gold Road’s franking account balance at the relevant time.
Based on Gold Road’s current franking account balance, the dividend would equate to approximately A$0.353 per share.
Gold Fields has confirmed to Gold Road that the consideration proposed under the Scheme is a ‘best and final’ price and will not be increased further in the absence of a superior proposal emerging.
The Scheme is subject to various conditions including approval by Gold Road shareholders at a Scheme Meeting expected to be held in September 2025, with implementation of the Scheme expected to occur shortly thereafter.
Shareholders representing 7.5 per cent4 of Gold Road’s total shares outstanding have provided confirmation to Gold Fields that they intend to vote all of the shares they own or control in favour of the Scheme5.
The Gold Road Board unanimously recommends that shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme, in the absence of a superior proposal and subject to the independent expert concluding in the Independent Expert’s Report, and continuing to conclude, that the Scheme is in the best interests of Gold Road shareholders.
i hold GOR ( so far )
HIGHLIGHTS
Gold Road has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Gold Fields under which Gold Fields has agreed to acquire 100 per cent of the issued share capital in Gold Road by way of a scheme of arrangement.
Under the terms of the Scheme, Gold Road shareholders will receive a fixed cash consideration of A$2.52 per share (less any special dividend paid prior to implementation of the Scheme),plus a variable cash consideration equal to the full value of each Gold Road shareholders’ proportionate holding in Northern Star, calculated by reference to the date the Scheme becomes effective (valued at A$0.88 per share if the Scheme was effective on 2 May 2025).
As at 2 May 2025, the total cash consideration equates to A$3.40 per share, representing a43 per cent premium to Gold Road’s undisturbed closing share price on 21 March 20251, and a 39 per cent premium to Gold Road’s undisturbed 3-month VWAP on 21 March 2025. As at 2 May 2025 the value of the total cash consideration is 12 per cent higher than the value of the consideration proposed in the initial non-binding indicative offer announced by Gold Fields on 24 March 20252.
Gold Road intends to declare a fully franked special dividend should the Scheme become effective.
The final amount will be determined by Gold Road’s franking account balance at the relevant time.
Based on Gold Road’s current franking account balance, the dividend would equate to approximately A$0.353 per share.
Gold Fields has confirmed to Gold Road that the consideration proposed under the Scheme is a ‘best and final’ price and will not be increased further in the absence of a superior proposal emerging.
The Scheme is subject to various conditions including approval by Gold Road shareholders at a Scheme Meeting expected to be held in September 2025, with implementation of the Scheme expected to occur shortly thereafter.
Shareholders representing 7.5 per cent4 of Gold Road’s total shares outstanding have provided confirmation to Gold Fields that they intend to vote all of the shares they own or control in favour of the Scheme5.
The Gold Road Board unanimously recommends that shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme, in the absence of a superior proposal and subject to the independent expert concluding in the Independent Expert’s Report, and continuing to conclude, that the Scheme is in the best interests of Gold Road shareholders.
i hold GOR ( so far )
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There goes another one
12% more than the initial offer - Seems a bit lame of 'our' management, since they were calling the initial offer highly opportunistic? I suppose management will kill the pig and get their performance shares and options recognized early through the deal though. That's the main thing.
Held
12% more than the initial offer - Seems a bit lame of 'our' management, since they were calling the initial offer highly opportunistic? I suppose management will kill the pig and get their performance shares and options recognized early through the deal though. That's the main thing.
Held
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sadly i agree
however somewhere in all the regulation stuff is a bit about , the board is obliged to investigate and accept any 'fair and reasonable offer ' and throw the blame onto the shareholders
takes the steam out of the 'buy and hold' strategy when the board can sell you out , even when the board is out of good ideas
but after going through the rellie's paperwork there was a blow by blow documentation of the Rinker take-over ( where the predator basically borrowed against the victim's cash pile to finance the take-over , claiming the cash pile was a symptom of management incompetence )
