Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[over9k]

"Here in the U.S we know we need to get our fiscal house in order"

BAM.

Told you all

 

[over9k]

Alright guys you need to see bessent's speech. I'll link it once it's on youtube. This is big. He's talking about a "global rebalancing", stating the problems openly, and how they're going to deal with them. Things like mission creep from the IMF and world bank. How the IMF keeps coming to the rescue for countries that are in over their heads from predatory lenders and the whole thing, both the predatory loans and the IMF coming to the rescue needs to stop.

There's so much he's covering (he's covering basically everything honestly) so I'll just link the speech once it's uploaded.

Great stuff. LONG overdue IMO.

 

[over9k]

"There is no justification for the continuation of this kind of lending. The IMF and world bank treating china, the world's 2nd largest economy, as still being a developing country, is absurd".

 

[over9k]

"The United States' total financial commitment to the IMF is approximately $155 billion"

"The US contributes significantly to the World Bank, holding a 17.5% share. In fiscal year 2024, the World Bank Group committed $117.5 billion in loans, grants, and other forms of financing".


So 155 billion to the IMF and 20 billion to the world bank are now "under major review".

 

[farmerge]

Agreed. Don't know if it's reversible though. This is Pandora's box - allies have already started to move away from the US (see political discourse) and it makes no sense for them to change tact based on rumours from an investment bank!

And once moved would these allies decide to move back and perhaps have the whole scenario over again.

 

[over9k]

If we assumed on the low end that they got 225 billion/year in tariff revenue, putting that with the 175 now on the potential chopping block puts them at 400 billion/year difference in the fiscal position.

Current U.S budget total is about 4.75 trillion, military budget is 840 billion, total government debt about 36 trillion.

Between the tariff revenue and whatever funding they end up cutting (there's endless domestic agencies and programs they haven't even talked about yet) I wouldn't be surprised to see a $1 trillion difference in the U.S fiscal position by the end of trump's term.

 

[over9k]

"A budget deficit occurs when money going out (spending) exceeds money coming in (revenue) during a defined period. In FY 2024, the federal government spent $6.75 trillion and collected $4.92 trillion in revenue, resulting in a $1.83 trillion deficit".

So they really need to hit the 2 trillion mark to get back in the black.

 

[over9k]

Treasury secretary now being branded as a "silver voice of reason".

Yeah. Markets hadn't heard ANYTHING from this guy until now and now that they have they LOVE him.

Jolly good show.

 

[over9k]

Alright here's the full speech, it's in 360p but here it is:

 

[over9k]

Musk now "pulling back from doge".

Yep. There's been some conversations behind closed doors lately that's for sure.

 

[farmerge]

With the way the overseas markets are looking tonight, is it possible that The Trumpet is backing down off his impost tax pedestal.
Just perhaps those that blow into his ear, not the deaf one, are finally getting through to him that he is completely stuffing up the world economies and the USofA's more so.

 

[over9k]

I still think it was a negotiating tactic, a stone cold bluff to let everyone think they're negotiating with a lunatic that will burn the thing to the ground if he doesn't get what he wants.

If you've ever tried reasoning with someone asking some ridiculous price for something that just won't budge no matter what you say or how many people say it then you'll know exactly what I'm talking about.

They're the kind of people real estate agents just decline the business from.

 

[DannyB0000]

Xi still hasn't called Trump about a tariff deal, I wouldn't get to excited about a break through. Bessent can sugar coat things as much as he wants but without China on board, there is no deal.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Trump has again been proven to be just a bully full of hot air. He does tend to take everyone with him though.

I would not agree with those who see golden skies ( except for gold holders ) as he is surrounded by muppets and history repeats.

The status quo remains. Socially and as a nation the US is buggered. They may be the richest now but materially they will fall. When one behaves towards others like a **** fighter, particularly towards friends as Trump has, memories remain long after the feathers flutter to the ground.

It is just a matter as outsiders not to be taken in by the gyrations of a dying empire and look after one's own interests. As ANZAC Day is tomorrow let us mourn those poor boys who died and were injured in Vietnam, sent by our politicians to help a so-called friend.

gg

I see the bot has starred my ****. It deserves such. Let's replace it with kok or coque for @qldfrog should such a word exist. So it is kok fighter.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

Alright here's the full speech, it's in 360p but here it is:

Exactly what we have been saying for years, very sensible and honest speech and explanation.
The West has to get its house in order, otherwise there will be a fiscal collapse, money printing to support unsustainable economic policy will just end up with a loss of confidence in the currencies and that confidence is all the Fiat system works on.

Great find @over9k

 

[qldfrog]

And a link to a great @houtman post on this forum
Post in thread 'Good financial and investment videos' https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/good-financial-and-investment-videos.38361/post-1327773

 

[DannyB0000]

Apparently just 2 weeks away from empty shelves

 

[dyna]

a dying empire and look after one's own interests. As ANZAC Day is tomorrow let us mourn those poor boys who died and were injured in Vietnam, sent by our politicians to help a so-called friend.

I remember in the 70's reading of the imminent " end of empire " by that great author , Gore Vidal . One should not generalise about good folks who I still very much like and admire but you're dead right about the selfishness of these people . Without a social security net ,Yanks instinctively know from birth , they're on their own and will have to be tough and hard on themselves just to survive in this unfair society . It's grim alright and it could get like that in OZ , if we're not more thoughtful of others . ......I'll never forget the many occasions in conversation with them , I'd lose eye contact all of a sudden and they'd be already looking over my shoulder for the next " contact ".
There's a desperation and awful loneliness to this American life . Along with drugs and crime that's what made me give up on my American dream and come home .

 

[sptrawler]

Apparently just 2 weeks away from empty shelves

Which highlights the underlying problem, if one country wishes to hold another to ransom.

 

[Knobby22]

Saw this- too true. Even I didn't think he would give in so quickly.

Trump caved in with China tariffs… “I crawled back faster than anyone in the history of crawling has crawled. Some say that it was a beautiful crawl. I crawled at levels never seen before. My crawling numbers have never been higher.”- Trump

Two weeks left on the shelves.
If I was China I would return the calls in 3 weeks.