Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Knobby22]

Enjoy the ride:
all the Trump haters must be making a killing on the share market.
Impeachment...again?
Let my bear and gold play run

I picked this. See the yearly comp.

Interest rates cannot be lowered in any case with the bond rate going through the roof.

Trump can set the rate to 1% and he would merely lose complete control.

 

[finicky]

I'm thinking of selling a few gold shares today (or hope to) to fund a buy of non-gold dog stock or two.
I'm interested to see how WDS, ILU, NHC, WHC and NWH react to the U.S plunge. Just considering small accretive buys like in the last dump.
It's not unusual that our market doesn't react as strongly as I anticipate to big U.S moves however.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

This is Trump's main economic adviser on tariffs and everything else when he gets a chance. He ain't too good on arithmetic neither which must make the markets even more skittish.

Trump certainly knows how to pick 'em.

Kevin Hassett - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

gg

 

[finicky]

Everyone here seems to worship the sentiment of "the market". Like its truth. The market is manipulated by non democratic amoral entities just like all the other self self serving elitists who despise ordinary people and gaslight them: the Democrat party, the liberals, the legacy media, Hollywood, the cultural marxists in academia, the central bank governors, the corporations, the NGOs, the trans national organizations like the U.N. You've finally got the major western government elected who is trying to do something about it and you f'g whine, whine, whine.

 

[finicky]

WIkipedia is handy but politically biased - I donated a couple of times but never will again after reading their bio of Donald Trump.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

WIkipedia is handy but politically biased - I donated a couple of times but never will again after reading their bio of Donald Trump.

It is indeed @finicky . A good point. While I haven't read Trump's bio Wikipedia is leftish on many bios. Vox has an interesting article on Hassett. Fiddle about on different browsers it may be behind a paywall.

A brief guide to Kevin Hassett, Trump’s new chief economist

He’s a free trader who’s sympathetic to carbon taxes.

www.vox.com

gg

 

[orr]

This is Trump's main economic adviser on tariffs and everything else when he gets a chance. He ain't too good on arithmetic neither which must make the markets even more skittish.

Trump certainly knows how to pick 'em.

Kevin Hassett - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

gg

Trump knows how to pick'm....
And pick'm he has ... Sticking tightly to Steven K Bannon's edict to 'flood the zone with sxxt' . That's trumps administrative appointments are that to overflowing.

Last week Paul Krugman on his 'Notes on a Crisis' podcast had on Nathan Tunkas who went into detail on technical financial interplays that threatened the recent collapse of the market for US treasuries and the consequences. This is still playing out.

That the name Hassett could contain in it 'asset' is one of those cosmic anomalies that sometimes appear.

 

[finicky]

Thanks for taking time out from your nap orr.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Everyone here seems to worship the sentiment of "the market". Like its truth. The market is manipulated by non democratic amoral entities just like all the other self self serving elitists who despise ordinary people and gaslight them: the Democrat party, the liberals, the legacy media, Hollywood, the cultural marxists in academia, the central bank governors, the corporations, the NGOs, the trans national organizations like the U.N. You've finally got the major western government elected who is trying to do something about it and you f'g whine, whine, whine.

The top 1% elites are the ones pulling Trump's strings; that's the whole problem to start with. Trusting someone like Trump is like trusting a drug user to deliver 100 kg of cocaine. The Elite will be locked up safe and sound in their gated communities, while the middle class has to deal with the lower class stealing and doing home invasions just to survive. That's one of the main reasons why I'm against govts cutting social services, you end up with a country like Africa. The US is f***ed up as in once people slip into that circle of crime they seem to be stuck there due to all the other laws and they become even more vunarable of going back to prison.

 

[DannyB0000]

The top 1% elites are the ones pulling Trump's strings; that's the whole problem to start with. Trusting someone like Trump is like trusting a drug user to deliver 100 kg of cocaine. The Elite will be locked up safe and sound in their gated communities, while the middle class has to deal with the lower class stealing and doing home invasions just to survive. That's one of the main reasons why I'm against govts cutting social services, you end up with a country like Africa. The US is f***ed up as in once people slip into that circle of crime they seem to be stuck there due to all the other laws and they become even more vunarable of going back to prison.

I thought a vote for Trump and MAGA ideology was supposed to be a vote against elitism and the mega rich, drain the swamp ?.

 

[Smurf1976]

You've finally got the major western government elected who is trying to do something about it and you f'g whine, whine, whine.

There's a difference between whining about something versus observing what's occurring both good and bad.

Something I realised early on in my career is not all but most senior managers actually value anyone lower down who's willing to objectively and constructively criticise. Because they find themselves surrounded by sycophants - if someone's willing to be "that guy" who doesn't go along with the herd but instead points out legitimate issues, well that's one way to get promoted.
On the downside, it's also one way to end up working 12/7 in charge of fixing the crisis when the warning wasn't heeded. On the positive side, there's a thing known as paid overtime.

Back to Trump, well on one hand if the objective really is to bring industry back to the US and to eliminate or at least reduce budget deficits then I absolutely agree with that, it's a point I've made in the Australian context often on this forum and elsewhere for decades. I always saw that as ultimately an economic argument far more than a political one - running deficits, either trade or budget, runs into trouble at some point. It's not free, there's a price to be paid.

On the other hand as investors or traders there's a definite downside to Trump's approach if I'm correct in my understanding that significantly reducing the value of the USD relative to other currencies, and getting investors out of financial assets and into the real economy, is the aim. From the perspective of an Australian investor who might have funds in an S&P500 or other US index fund a crash in value isn't collateral damage, it's the intended outcome. Drop the USD and drop the stock market - that's a double hit if you're in Australia. If I'm correct in my understanding.....

 

[TimeISmoney]

I thought a vote for Trump and MAGA ideology was supposed to be a vote against elitism and the mega rich, drain the swamp ?.

Drain the public swamp and fill the backyard private swamps of the elite.

 

[over9k]

Gld?

SHNY. I screencapped it a few posts back.

I made a small buy out of fear a while back. I'm not buying any more but I'm sure not selling either.

I still have my buys in place in increments on spy. Might change them to increments of 10 rather than 15 but that's all I'm buying at the moment.


Trying to pick individual stocks/sectors is pure gambling at the moment. Only once we see a real thinking/method shift from trump to the metaphorical scalpel I've been talking about rather than the sledgehammer that he's been using will we be able to start speculating about which industries/sectors might be the diamonds in the rough.

 

[over9k]

Back to Trump, well on one hand if the objective really is to bring industry back to the US and to eliminate or at least reduce budget deficits then I absolutely agree with that, it's a point I've made in the Australian context often on this forum and elsewhere for decades. I always saw that as ultimately an economic argument far more than a political one - running deficits, either trade or budget, runs into trouble at some point. It's not free, there's a price to be paid.

THIS.

The total silence on the national debt chicken and its unserviceability is deafening to me. If we were (have) moving to a world where 0% interest rates are a thing of the past then 4% or 6% or whatever interest rates all of a sudden turn national debts from a pain in the ass to a major, recession or runaway-inflation-causing problem.

Notice how we keep hearing things from/about powell but absolutely nothing from or about the treasury secretary? And how government agencies just keep getting their budgets cut? And nothing about how they're going to spend the tariff revenue?

Yeah well I don't think they're going to spend it. I think this is all just a big game reference them FINALLY having to do something to bring their fiscal position under control.

And we haven't even begun any kind of deep dive into things like defaulting on the debt yet...

 

[over9k]

Trump can set the rate to 1% and he would merely lose complete control.

The yield curve has steepened massively already. The whole thing's moved up but it's also steepened.

We really aren't going to be able to say much about interest/inflation rates until tariff levels are finalised and implemented and implemented for significant amount of time.

They've got a 3 month window on tariff negotiations and then we'll need to see the data dumps a year later to get a better idea of things. All the data we see in the meantime is meaningless, hence it now doing almost nothing to move markets.

 

[over9k]

MEANWHILE:

 

[Knobby22]

The yield curve has steepened massively already. The whole thing's moved up but it's also steepened.

We really aren't going to be able to say much about interest/inflation rates until tariff levels are finalised and implemented and implemented for significant amount of time.

They've got a 3 month window on tariff negotiations and then we'll need to see the data dumps a year later to get a better idea of things. All the data we see in the meantime is meaningless, hence it now doing almost nothing to move markets.

3 months. Hope you are right.
I'm still thinking carnage. And it won't end easily.

 

[farmerge]

3 months. Hope you are right.
I'm still thinking carnage. And it won't end easily.

@Knobby22 Itend to agree with you Knobby. I don't think that The Trumpet really cares about too much except his own posturing as a "World Leader" with all the answers.
If companies and businesses go broke/bankrupt so what. He has been there in that position 6 times.

 

[Knobby22]

"The major averages spiked on news that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a group of investors Tuesday that there "will be a de-escalation" in the trade war with China. "No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable," he said Tuesday during a meeting with investors hosted by JPMorgan Chase, according to a person in the room. The meeting was first reported by Bloomberg News."

As stated moved my Super from stable to conservative last week. I think the USA now have grown ups in the room.

China is exerting pressure and let's face it, the USA will suffer more than anyone. China can last 5 years, USA can't even handle one Christmas.

Unfocused tariffs are just dumb. They aren't suddenly going to open billions of factories for low margin products within the USA.
and no one outside of the US will buy them!

They should look at what Biden did. Maximum China pain for little USA pain with the focus of moving certain industries to the USA or competition e.g. Vietnam.

Attacking allies simultaneously was dumb, dumb, dumb. All these former allies will also redirect trade, travel etc. to competition.

IMF are stating the obvious.

US growth forecast to be hit hardest from Trump tariffs, IMF says

The International Monetary Fund says US tariffs and market uncertainty will lead to a significant worldwide slowdown.

www.bbc.com

 

[waterbottle]

"The major averages spiked on news that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a group of investors Tuesday that there "will be a de-escalation" in the trade war with China. "No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable," he said Tuesday during a meeting with investors hosted by JPMorgan Chase, according to a person in the room. The meeting was first reported by Bloomberg News."

As stated moved my Super from stable to conservative last week. I think the USA now have grown ups in the room.

China is exerting pressure and let's face it, the USA will suffer more than anyone. China can last 5 years, USA can't even handle one Christmas.

Unfocused tariffs are just dumb. They aren't suddenly going to open billions of factories for low margin products within the USA.
and no one outside of the US will buy them!

They should look at what Biden did. Maximum China pain for little USA pain with the focus of moving certain industries to the USA or competition e.g. Vietnam.

Attacking allies simultaneously was dumb, dumb, dumb. All these former allies will also redirect trade, travel etc. to competition.

IMF are stating the obvious.

US growth forecast to be hit hardest from Trump tariffs, IMF says

The International Monetary Fund says US tariffs and market uncertainty will lead to a significant worldwide slowdown.

www.bbc.com

"The major averages spiked on news that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a group of investors Tuesday that there "will be a de-escalation" in the trade war with China. "No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable," he said Tuesday during a meeting with investors hosted by JPMorgan Chase, according to a person in the room. The meeting was first reported by Bloomberg News."

As stated moved my Super from stable to conservative last week. I think the USA now have grown ups in the room.

China is exerting pressure and let's face it, the USA will suffer more than anyone. China can last 5 years, USA can't even handle one Christmas.

Unfocused tariffs are just dumb. They aren't suddenly going to open billions of factories for low margin products within the USA.
and no one outside of the US will buy them!

They should look at what Biden did. Maximum China pain for little USA pain with the focus of moving certain industries to the USA or competition e.g. Vietnam.

Attacking allies simultaneously was dumb, dumb, dumb. All these former allies will also redirect trade, travel etc. to competition.

IMF are stating the obvious.

US growth forecast to be hit hardest from Trump tariffs, IMF says

The International Monetary Fund says US tariffs and market uncertainty will lead to a significant worldwide slowdown.

www.bbc.com

Agreed. Don't know if it's reversible though. This is Pandora's box - allies have already started to move away from the US (see political discourse) and it makes no sense for them to change tact based on rumours from an investment bank!