Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[waterbottle]

It's still a tariff war between America and China. Trump raised the tariff rate to 125% on Chinese imports, 84% tariffs on US imports, I hope you guys didn't dump everything on Monday.

Nah, still a war between US and the rest of the world - just delayed by 3 months.
It's the same play he had with Canada.

 

[divs4ever]

It's still a tariff war between America and China. Trump raised the tariff rate to 125% on Chinese imports, 84% tariffs on US imports, I hope you guys didn't dump everything on Monday.

reduced a couple of ( in my opinion ) over-priced gold stocks and bought some under-priced steel stocks ( just in case there is a shooting war or military build-up )

 

[TimeISmoney]

Only kicking the can down the road, still not going to fix the 36 trillion that Trump owes.

 

[DannyB0000]

So after stocks sell off for 4 days straight Trump says" Just Kidding!!!", on tariffs except for China because they are naughty. More volatility in 90 days from now.

 

[TimeISmoney]

 

[Smurf1976]

Nah, still a war between US and the rest of the world - just delayed by 3 months.

In order to give insiders time to position themselves accordingly before another surprise?

 

[TimeISmoney]

Good bounce back, I hope to unload some of my stale fruit on the ASX.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Nah, still a war between US and the rest of the world

China v USA is the main fight now.

It is Round 1. Both fighters are still fresh. By Round 7 they will both be screaming for the referee.

gg

 

[eskys]

Nah, Trump has no need for a referee. He's strong and tough; player and referee rolled into one

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Nah, Trump has no need for a referee. He's strong and tough; player and referee rolled into one

nope. he's got a weak hand.

Bill Clinton’s chief strategist James Carville famously said: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”

 

[DannyB0000]

Experts, critics raise questions after Trump says 'this is a great time to buy' before pausing tariffs

There is no evidence to suggest that the president was seeking to manipulate markets or that he or any of his advisers acted on inside information.

www.nbcnews.com

Tell me this isn't insider trading on a grand scale, approved by the government

"This is a great time to buy!!!DJT."

 

[farmerge]

Now,

As I was saying before I was rudely interrupted with all this talk of tariffs. ...

gg

@Garpal Gumnut So sorry gg interruptions and tariffs and the like!!!!!!!

 

[farmerge]

good night try to miss the nightmares

@divs4ever well the sleep was going great until about 3am when some lowlife decided to rev the guts out of his motor bike for about an hour in front of our place.
What a pity I had handed in the long piece of steel with the very small hole bored down the middle of it!!!!

 

[over9k]

Nah, still a war between US and the rest of the world - just delayed by 3 months.
It's the same play he had with Canada.

This. Going to be an interesting 3 months.

My spidey sense says we're going to see markets kind of collectively hold their breath basically just waiting for every press release and interview and hanging on every word trump or his trade reps say.

You'd be forgiven for thinking that things like economic data, the fed etc even exist at the moment.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, my 525, 510 and 495 buys are looking pretty good at the moment (not that I was expecting them to be).

Had anyone else actually bought yet?

 

[over9k]

Just read a post on twitter talking about metaphorical bullets the americans could fire without causing a tremendous amount of self harm and someone brought up the amount of U.S treasuries held by china and how the yanks could, if they so chose, just default on them.

As in default on the debt held by china and china alone.

 

[sptrawler]

In order to give insiders time to position themselves accordingly before another surprise?

This. Going to be an interesting 3 months.

My spidey sense says we're going to see markets kind of collectively hold their breath basically just waiting for every press release and interview and hanging on every word trump or his trade reps say.

You'd be forgiven for thinking that things like economic data, the fed etc even exist at the moment.

I'm wondering if they have not yet got the systems in place, to monitor and execute all the different tariffs, it would be a logistical and administration nightmare.

Validating which imports came from which country and what excise is applied from which departure date, they couldn't apply the excise to containers or produce that was shipped prior to the announcement, I wouldn't think.

My guess is the 90 days is to get the processing protocols, prodeedures and monitoring up to speed.
leaving the tariffs on China, would mean they only have to currently deal with imports from one source, which they may already be able to handle and China is the main focus.

 

[waterbottle]

Meanwhile, my 525, 510 and 495 buys are looking pretty good at the moment (not that I was expecting them to be).

Had anyone else actually bought yet?

Nope, I was toying with TQQQ calls but didn't pull the trigger.

I think I'll be looking for short entry positions though at this point as i don' think this is going to be a sustained rally - just a part of the volatility, particularly given the fundamental change in geopolitics.
The question is what to short.
TSLA and some of the other mag 7 have had a near 50% decline since their peak.

 

[waterbottle]

Just read a post on twitter talking about metaphorical bullets the americans could fire without causing a tremendous amount of self harm and someone brought up the amount of U.S treasuries held by china and how the yanks could, if they so chose, just default on them.

As in default on the debt held by china and china alone.

Yep, I thought this would be the play.

The problem is this won't just affect relationships with China.
When the Canadian et al tarrifs were first announced, everyone other government thought they wouldn't be affected. Now everyone has a 3 month pause and best case scenario there's a universal 10% tarriff applied.

Defaulting on China means that they're open to defaulting on all debt.

 

[waterbottle]

I'm wondering if they have not yet got the systems in place, to monitor and execute all the different tariffs, it would be a logistical and administration nightmare.

Validating which imports came from which country and what excise is applied from which departure date, they couldn't apply the excise to containers or produce that was shipped prior to the announcement, I wouldn't think.

My guess is the 90 days is to get the processing protocols, prodeedures and monitoring up to speed.
leaving the tariffs on China, would mean they to only have to currently deal with imports from one source, which they may already be able to handle and China is the main focus.

Very good point. Government moves slowly despite Trump wishing otherwise.