Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[JohnDe]

There is still hope.

Mr Navarro is part of the Steve Bannon wing of MAGA, which wants to put U.S. industries behind the high tariff walls that Mr Trump is now imposing. This faction distrusts corporations, especially Big Tech and pharma, and it doesn’t mind higher taxes and using government power to punish political enemies.​

​

Elon Musk opined on the internet Tuesday that White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is “truly a moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks.”​

​

One way to interpret Mr Musk’s bluntness lately is that he’s on the outs with Mr Trump, or else he’ll soon be. We hope that isn’t the case. Mr Musk has made some missteps, and he is far too forgiving of China’s Communist Party in our view.​

​

But he isn’t a flunky whom Mr Trump can consign to oblivion by firing, and he’s saying things the President ought to hear. He represents the aspirational wing of MAGA-land that is the best part of Trumponomics.​

Why Musk vs. Navarro matters​

The WSJ Editorial Board

Elon Musk and Peter Navarro are involved in a stoush over tariffs. Picture: Supplied.

Elon Musk opined on the internet Tuesday that White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is “truly a moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks.” Mr Navarro had told a TV show that Mr Musk, CEO of Tesla, isn’t a real car manufacturer but a mere “assembler” of foreign parts. In another interview, Mr Navarro denied a rift between them. But then Mr Musk called him “Peter Retarrdo.”

This isn’t exactly Lincoln’s team of rivals, and we hesitate to devote attention to squabbling West Wing personalities, except that this feud illustrates the competing factions advising President Trump and that make up big chunks of his political coalition. Which side prevails more often is likely to determine whether Mr Trump’s economic policy succeeds.

Mr Musk is an erratic political messenger, but he’s right about at least two big things, and he also appears willing to speak truths that Mr Trump is better off hearing. Mr Musk believes in trade, and he recently said he hopes that the U.S. and Europe move “to a zero-tariff situation.” He has also pointed out, correctly, that most federal spending is for entitlement programs, though Mr Trump has promised not to touch such benefits.

Broadly speaking, Mr Musk represents a segment of Mr Trump’s 2024 coalition — call it Silicon Valley MAGA — that is libertarianish and believes in freeing the U.S. economy to grow and dominate the future, benefiting all Americans. It favours pro-growth tax and regulatory policy and robust legal immigration to attract the world’s brightest minds.

Mr Navarro is part of the Steve Bannon wing of MAGA, which wants to put U.S. industries behind the high tariff walls that Mr Trump is now imposing. This faction distrusts corporations, especially Big Tech and pharma, and it doesn’t mind higher taxes and using government power to punish political enemies.

Mr Navarro has the additional talent of saying whatever he thinks the boss wants to hear, including in 2020 when he wrote a report, titled “The Immaculate Deception,” suggesting Joe Biden stole the election. His willingness to toe the line probably helps to explain how Mr Navarro has lasted in the White House so long, and these days he appears to be at the height of his influence with the President if the hyper-tariffs are a guide.

One way to interpret Mr Musk’s bluntness lately is that he’s on the outs with Mr Trump, or else he’ll soon be. We hope that isn’t the case. Mr Musk has made some missteps, and he is far too forgiving of China’s Communist Party in our view.

But he isn’t a flunky whom Mr Trump can consign to oblivion by firing, and he’s saying things the President ought to hear. He represents the aspirational wing of MAGA-land that is the best part of Trumponomics.

The Wall St Journal

 

[Country Lad]

U.S. exports to China account for hundreds of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs — but that's all now caught up in a fast-escalating trade war.
Why it matters: If sky-high tariff rates announced Wednesday remain in place, many U.S. companies will no longer be able to compete in China's market.

Catch up quick: China announced Wednesday that it would subject most U.S. goods to 84% tariffs in retaliation for President Trump's 104% tariffs — which Trump promptly raised to 125%.

• Trump paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, except those against China, which he blasted for retaliating.

By the numbers: China is the U.S.' third-biggest export market. More than 931,000 jobs were supported in 2022 by U.S. exports to China, according to the U.S. China Business Council.

• That includes more than 125,000 jobs in California; 89,000 in Texas; 53,000 in Illinois; and 42,000 in New York.

Zoom in: Texas' 38th congressional district was the biggest goods exporter to China in 2023 with $4.9 billion in exports, per to the U.S.-China Business Council.

• Indiana's 7th district ($2.3 billion) was next, followed by Louisiana's 1st.

 

[mullokintyre]

Meanwhile, my 525, 510 and 495 buys are looking pretty good at the moment (not that I was expecting them to be).

Had anyone else actually bought yet?

Problem is, not all of us have spidey senses and mind reading ability to know what you actually bought.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

View attachment 197234


U.S. exports to China account for hundreds of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs — but that's all now caught up in a fast-escalating trade war.
Why it matters: If sky-high tariff rates announced Wednesday remain in place, many U.S. companies will no longer be able to compete in China's market.

Catch up quick: China announced Wednesday that it would subject most U.S. goods to 84% tariffs in retaliation for President Trump's 104% tariffs — which Trump promptly raised to 125%.

• Trump paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, except those against China, which he blasted for retaliating.

By the numbers: China is the U.S.' third-biggest export market. More than 931,000 jobs were supported in 2022 by U.S. exports to China, according to the U.S. China Business Council.

• That includes more than 125,000 jobs in California; 89,000 in Texas; 53,000 in Illinois; and 42,000 in New York.

Zoom in: Texas' 38th congressional district was the biggest goods exporter to China in 2023 with $4.9 billion in exports, per to the U.S.-China Business Council.

• Indiana's 7th district ($2.3 billion) was next, followed by Louisiana's 1st.

Have you got a similar report on China exports to the USA?

 

[mullokintyre]

For all the talk about DOGE cutting back on spending and "saving billions" , the reality is as usual, somewhat different.
Mick

 

[Country Lad]

Have you got a similar report on China exports to the USA?

China retaliated against President Trump's tariffs on Wednesday with a new 84% levy on exports from the U.S., threatening American jobs and industry that rely on the crucial trade partner.
Why it matters: There's very little modern precedent for one of the largest importers of U.S. goods throwing up such a giant barrier. The full scope of the consequences for the economy are not yet clear.

• Trump on Wednesday afternoon paused the administration's sweeping reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days — except those for China, which he raised to 125%. He kept 10% baseline tariffs in place.

By the numbers: In 2024, U.S. exported $143.5 billion worth of goods and materials to China, down 2.9% from 2023, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

• More than 930,000 jobs were supported by U.S. exports to China alone in 2022, per a 2024 report from the U.S.-China Business Council.
• "Jobs supported by exports to China outnumber those supported by the next two Asian markets combined," the report stated.

China was the third-largest export market in 2023 for the U.S., the report said, with oilseeds and grains as the top exports.

• By state, Texas, California and Louisiana were the top U.S. exporters to China in 2023.
• Texas saw 146% growth over the previous 10 years.

The big picture: Trump instituted sweeping tariffs in an attempt to reorder the global economy, but economists and U.S. allies have said his plan could lead to a recession.

• The U.S. trade deficit with China (imports minus exports) has been larger than $200 billion since 2005, and it reached a record high of $418 billion during the second year of Trump's first administration.
• Top U.S. imports from China in 2022 were electronics, machinery and appliances, toys and games, textiles and chemical products, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

 

[JohnDe]

View attachment 197242



China retaliated against President Trump's tariffs on Wednesday with a new 84% levy on exports from the U.S., threatening American jobs and industry that rely on the crucial trade partner.
Why it matters: There's very little modern precedent for one of the largest importers of U.S. goods throwing up such a giant barrier. The full scope of the consequences for the economy are not yet clear.

• Trump on Wednesday afternoon paused the administration's sweeping reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days — except those for China, which he raised to 125%. He kept 10% baseline tariffs in place.

By the numbers: In 2024, U.S. exported $143.5 billion worth of goods and materials to China, down 2.9% from 2023, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

• More than 930,000 jobs were supported by U.S. exports to China alone in 2022, per a 2024 report from the U.S.-China Business Council.
• "Jobs supported by exports to China outnumber those supported by the next two Asian markets combined," the report stated.

China was the third-largest export market in 2023 for the U.S., the report said, with oilseeds and grains as the top exports.

• By state, Texas, California and Louisiana were the top U.S. exporters to China in 2023.
• Texas saw 146% growth over the previous 10 years.

The big picture: Trump instituted sweeping tariffs in an attempt to reorder the global economy, but economists and U.S. allies have said his plan could lead to a recession.

• The U.S. trade deficit with China (imports minus exports) has been larger than $200 billion since 2005, and it reached a record high of $418 billion during the second year of Trump's first administration.
• Top U.S. imports from China in 2022 were electronics, machinery and appliances, toys and games, textiles and chemical products, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

"The U.S. trade deficit with China (imports minus exports) reached a record high of $418 billion" that is eye watering.

 

[farmerge]

@waterbottle You see him here, you see him there, you see him sorting out the wars that are everywhere. How much thinner can The Trumpet make himself.
Smacks of Eddy Everywhere, ALF self proclaimed icon and general dogs body!!!!!

 

[over9k]

Defaulting on China means that they're open to defaulting on all debt.

Yeah well that's the wildcard part, how much will it effect everyone else's confidence in U.S debt?

They might go on record and say "we're doing this to china and china alone" but everyone else are naturally going to start thinking "ok what happens to us if we get on your sh!tlist too?".

It really all boils down to confidence at that point, pure perception. Perhaps they'll keep the tariffs as a bargaining chip, you know, "buy our debt and we'll reduce your tariffs" kind of deal.

The tariffs are clearly being used as a bargaining chip to twist quite a lot of arms over the next 3 months, it's not like they couldn't use them for all kinds of other things too.

Food for thought.

 

[over9k]

Problem is, not all of us have spidey senses and mind reading ability to know what you actually bought.
Mick

I've been talking about SPY this whole time...

 

[over9k]

The question is what to short.

The more exposed to china the business/product is, the more it'll get crushed

 

[waterbottle]

Yeah well that's the wildcard part, how much will it effect everyone else's confidence in U.S debt?

They might go on record and say "we're doing this to china and china alone" but everyone else are naturally going to start thinking "ok what happens to us if we get on your sh!tlist too?".

It really all boils down to confidence at that point, pure perception. Perhaps they'll keep the tariffs as a bargaining chip, you know, "buy our debt and we'll reduce your tariffs" kind of deal.

The tariffs are clearly being used as a bargaining chip to twist quite a lot of arms over the next 3 months, it's not like they couldn't use them for all kinds of other things too.

Food for thought.

Sure.

And this could still be a diversion to what is still occurring in the underlying economy.

Q1 GDP is due on the 30th April and the latest GDPNow estimates are still -2.x%. If true, recession is inbound, tarrifs or not.




As for Trump blinking - it looks like the bankers got to him and were probably underestimating how extensive the tarrifs would be.
Reminds of GFC times when bankers underestimated the extent of poor credit.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/why-trump-blinked-on-tariffs-b588aea8

 

[basilio]

Ian Verrender highlights how significant the collapse of the US Bond market was in forcing Trump to suspend most of the proposed Tariff . increase.

US President Donald Trump met his match in the bond market, triggering his tariff backflip​

By chief business correspondent Ian Verrender

• Topic:Tariffs

2h ago2 hours ago

US President Donald Trump tells a Republican dinner other countries are "kissing my ass", hours before his tariff about-face. (Reuters: Nathan Howard)

Link copied

Donald Trump has finally met his match.

Overnight, he was confronted by a force far greater than his own and the office he now holds.

The US president ran headlong into a brick wall of opposition and had no option but to back down.
It's called the bond market — an arena where brutality knows no bounds and where the participants take no prisoners.

Donald Trump ran into a brick wall and had no option but to back down

The US president was confronted by a force far greater than his own and the office he now holds overnight. The bond market, an arena where brutality knows no bounds and where the participants take no prisoners.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

As a broad thought without evidence, but I'm thinking that very few automated or mechanical trading systems, either individuals or institutions, would have modelled or back tested the events of the past few days. I mean who puts a 9.52% rise in the S&P500, during a single trading session, into a model? I suspect the answer is very few.

That being so, there'll be a lot of systems operating outside their design and testing criteria, a situation that's ripe for some sort of financial incident to occur.

 

[over9k]

As a broad thought without evidence, but I'm thinking that very few automated or mechanical trading systems, either individuals or institutions, would have modelled or back tested the events of the past few days. I mean who puts a 9.52% rise in the S&P500, during a single trading session, into a model? I suspect the answer is very few.

That being so, there'll be a lot of systems operating outside their design and testing criteria, a situation that's ripe for some sort of financial incident to occur.

Any smart institution would have thrown the maths out the window as soon as market moves started getting dictated by trump's whims.

With that being said, models will actually give you a probability of some kind of black swan event occurring.

I saw a headline that a quant's model showed yesterday to have a 1 in 15,000,000,000,000 (that's 1 in 15 quadrillion) probability.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

US markets are falling 2-6% in early trades 17 mins in.

It may recover. Too early to say at 11.47 pm but it's a sizeable gap down on all my former darlings which I exited prior to all this kerfuffle.

gg

 

[TimeISmoney]

US markets are falling 2-6% in early trades 17 mins in.

It may recover. Too early to say at 11.47 pm but it's a sizeable gap down on all my former darlings which I exited prior to all this kerfuffle.

gg

Some decent losses already.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Going back into gold so far.

 

[DannyB0000]

I wonder what Tim Cook is thinking now

 

[qldfrog]

heavy fall indeed;
And now I regret having put so low amounts in bbus and bboz yesterday
My gear buys are still on, this cascading buys in Gear and Bear ETF both asx and US market has been great so far, and a trailing SL after purchase with a small delta ->the week has been good for that
but that is trading so I do not go over the board in term of $ at play.
Hopefully will still keep my ATH by Saturday after the expected heavy loss on the asx today
And I start purchasing shares parcels with all that cash which was waiting.
The market might keep falling but better buying parcel at 2y old prices (not counting inflation) than 6 m ago.
Thanks POTUS Trump
Now the market will slowly settle, always use to, even during wars and probably in a slow fall mode.
Happy to be at home and with good tools access in the last 2 weeks