Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[over9k]

In response, AUD's dumped 0.5c against the USD in about ten minutes. Comical.

 

[DannyB0000]

Looks like another sell off tonight

 

[basilio]

More fireworks in the Tariff war.

As noted China has seen Trumps 34% and raised another 50%. This is Texas hold em on steroids. Neither side can effectively trade anymore.

US bonds are now being sold off at an alarming rate. Could be China behind it. Or EU.

Rest of Wednesday in the West will be stressful.

China announces 84% tariffs on US in retaliation​

China has announced new tariffs of 84% on the US, in a response to Donald Trump’s trade war that will raise fears of further escalation.

The Chinese ministry of finance said it will impose 84% tariffs on US goods from Thursday, up from the 34% previously announced, according to Reuters.

Stock markets sold off further in the wake of the announcement. More details to follow.

Dramatic sell-off of US government bonds as tariff war panic deepens​

Falling demand suggests loss of financial confidence in US as Donald Trump escalates trade standoff with China

Dramatic sell-off of US government bonds as tariff war panic deepens

Falling demand suggests loss of financial confidence in US as Donald Trump escalates trade standoff with China

www.theguardian.com

 

[over9k]

Futures now more than 2% into the red. Brent crude down 6%.

 

[mullokintyre]

And Gold up 2.5%.
Mick

 

[over9k]

And now the american re-retaliation:

 

[DannyB0000]

And now the american re-retaliation:

View attachment 197196

Neither the Chinese or the Americans will be able to do business with each other soon. I only see this escalating, tariff each other to infinity.

 

[divs4ever]

QFT

Young people do most of the consuming of "stuff" so if you make "stuff" then you need a young country to sell to - either internally or if you don't have it internally you sell to younger people overseas, but that assumes that the younger people overseas aren't buying their own self-produced "stuff".

Trump is simply taking a sledgehammer to that process, forcing the americans to buy from elsewhere/internally and the chinese to find another market to sell to.

the Chinese have been for several years cultivating new customers in underdeveloped and emerging nations , so that may accelerate , not be a major U-turn ( like a similar change for the EU would be )

but you do touch on another very important point the age of consumers .. since the developed nations ( and even some emerging ones ) have aging populations ( and birth-rates below replacement numbers )

is a lot of stuff going to appeal to aging consumers ( for instance i can't believe Beatles albums still sell as much as they do even now )

how much of 'the stuff ' is going to keep appeal to most adults , and what will the reducing numbers of teens/young adults buy it in quantity

( and China is still suffering from the consequences of 'the one-child policy ' despite abandoning that several years back )

this time MIGHT be different in a bad way ( assuming we still resist plunging into a MAJOR war )

 

[divs4ever]

IMO this is about decoupling China's exponential growth and the U.S retaining the reserve currency status.

China was already slowing growth ( in my opinion it was unsustainable and the slowing was sensible )

less widgets made , but better quality widgets

the US is it's own worst enemy there , they weaponized their currency and anyone except an insipid sycophant would have been concerned about that ( but the EU are decidedly egocentric and missed all the clues .. until too late )

Also IMO our mineral exports are in for a hiding to nothing, our Govt will be crapping themselves IMO

our Government has been crap over several administrations ( as much as i would like to dump it all on Albo )

but will our exports be so smashed , we still have customers like Japan , South Korea , etc. and apart from several minerals and grain we really don't export that much in the scheme of things

of course worst case scenario is some idjit offends somebody and we are banned from exporting to some nations ( it might be China or Indonesia or Thailand etc )

 

[divs4ever]

Neither the Chinese or the Americans will be able to do business with each other soon. I only see this escalating, tariff each other to infinity.

Bamboo Curtain version 2 ? ( no direct trade between those two nations ) China will remember the original Bamboo Curtain from the '50s , not so big of a deal for them

yes i could see that happening and it MIGHT be a good thing , China inventing/developing it's own stuff would be a major step forward , and maybe a better outcome for all but the US ( as they have to rely on their own resources )

BTW that would include China buying no more US debt ( government muni or corporate )

 

[farmerge]

I'll see you and raise you ten

@Dona Ferentes and so on.......................

 

[divs4ever]

And now the american re-retaliation:

View attachment 197196

just moves China closer to the Bamboo Curtain scenario , and Chinese ships bring in more than Chinese produce and take goods to more than China , somebody ( else ) had better start building more ships , because the Chinese ones won't be visiting US ports at all

 

[farmerge]

Well all it has been great getting back into the swing of things after my layoff, but tiredness still takes over so now time to call it quits for the night.

 

[divs4ever]

Yeah that's the thing about this stuff - unlike a court of law where what you know and what you can prove beyond reasonable doubt, you don't have to prove a damn thing to just slap someone with a tariff or embargo or even a full on blockade if you want to start really turning the screws.

Reality is that an embargo is the next escalation but that I'm very doubtful about because as I keep trying to mention to everyone, the tariff revenue and the corresponding difference it'll make to various (not least of all, the U.S's) budget position is not insignificant. An embargo would only serve to cut off that revenue.

I still think this whole tariff business is just a tax increase to fix the government's fiscal position masquerading as everything else.

That's not to say that there isn't an issue with trade deficits and one sided tariffs and so on but I'm still very skeptical that all of that is the primary reason for them.

You know that infamous movie line "It's quiet... too quiet"?

Well, I think the media are being too quiet about it, if you catch my drift

well most of the media hope the whole Trump Government will implode

so they MIGHT be quiet and HOPE

would China embargo/blockade ... YES , Xi can be very strong-minded , he ordered the public execution of his uncle ( a senior official ) in the tainted milk scandal ( Biden pardoned his corrupt family members )

don't mistake him for a softie

 

[divs4ever]

Well all it has been great getting back into the swing of things after my layoff, but tiredness still takes over so now time to call it quits for the night.

good night try to miss the nightmares

 

[over9k]

EU now gets 20%. Lol.

 

[Knobby22]

Trump is pausing the tariffs for many countries after Europe and China and others said we will take you on and also bond market collapsing.

He blinked. Good to see.
Also, he is getting better advice and maybe that dumbass Navarro is getting sidelined.

Still keeping China tariffs due to their "lack of respect" though so domestic pressure will build when they hit but it won't be as bad.

I was really thinking he was going to go over the cliff. I heard an excellent commentator say that Trump would be forced to some reality at some point but it might not occur till the market dropped a lot more.

From earlier. I think this was the change.
Some traders appeared encouraged Wednesday morning after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would be taking a lead negotiating role in tariff talks. Wall Street would favor a bigger role for Bessent over Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick or trade advisor Peter Navarro.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Now,

As I was saying before I was rudely interrupted with all this talk of tariffs. ...

gg

 

[waterbottle]

Trump blinks. Nasdaq up 12% holy shite

 

[DannyB0000]

It's still a tariff war between America and China. Trump raised the tariff rate to 125% on Chinese imports, 84% tariffs on US imports, I hope you guys didn't dump everything on Monday.