Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[wayneL]

No he was being literal. Just the wheels are $1000.

The bike itself is about 5000 at entry level.

A high end one is 25000.

I could *almost buy a Ducati for that. In fact high end is only double and 0-100 on half a second or something ridiculous.

 

[divs4ever]

Yep keep in mind US foreign policy often doesn’t change much between administrations also in the US money talks at some point Trump will come under pressure if enough power brokers lose money markets still falling because no one can measure the risk or price what the other side looks like interesting times it will create opportunities for us all but it will require patience….grasshopper

might be only two years this time if a blue wave takes control of Congress and Senate , that would be a massive reversal but Trump is disrupting massively

 

[wayneL]

No he was being literal. Just the wheels are $1000.

The bike itself is about 5000 at entry level.

A high end one is 25000.

Bloody Hell! Just looking through Trek's site. I thought my sport was 'spensive.

 

[basilio]

The US is on the nose of almost all other countries. The impact is reflected in these graphs
The effect on USS GDP will be significant

 

[divs4ever]

$1000 is roughly the starting price for a good entry set of road wheels today, most dentists would snub their nose at you .

had all my teeth out at 21 , snubbed the dentist first , am not sure i would like to compete in these times , the old days let you have interesting customizations to fit your size/shape if you wanted to
and the politics would be even worse than the cheating

Bloody Hell! Just looking through Trek's site. I thought my sport was 'spensive.

bike racing is very expensive , every time you come off ( and even a few times i DIDN'T come off .. like an unplanned cross-country detour )

 

[wayneL]

had all my teeth out at 21 , snubbed the dentist first , am not sure i would like to compete in these times , the old days let you have interesting customizations to fit your size/shape if you wanted to
and the politics would be even worse than the cheating

bike racing is very expensive , every time you come off ( and even a few times i DIDN'T come off .. like an unplanned cross-country detour )

Well at least cross country detours are our speciality

 

[waterbottle]

Have you actually thought about what you've said?

Forcing companies to produce their goods on-shore by americans is the very purpose of the tariffs. While it increases the cost of goods it also increases the demand for american labour.

Aren't you assuming that the cost of American labour is cheaper than the cost of foreign labour + whatever tarrif is required?
And what about automation? Do "modern" factories employ the same number of workers as they did 20 years ago?

I think the relationship is more complicated than what has been suggested so far, hence the volatile response from the markets.

 

[over9k]

Futures are fluctuating wildly. Another giveaway that markets really don't know what to think. They went from -4 to -3.3 to -4.1 and are now at -2.3...

Looking like a wild night.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Cheezuz! Over a thousand bucks just so I don't @#$& up my knees running?

How much is a knee replacement?

A family member had one done about 5 years ago, it was well over 16k in a private hospital, from memory.

 

[rcw1]

Well at least cross country detours are our speciality

View attachment 197058

love the photo bloke

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[TimeISmoney]

had all my teeth out at 21 , snubbed the dentist first , am not sure i would like to compete in these times , the old days let you have interesting customizations to fit your size/shape if you wanted to
and the politics would be even worse than the cheating

bike racing is very expensive , every time you come off ( and even a few times i DIDN'T come off .. like an unplanned cross-country detour )

In mountainbiking, we all joke about the bikes over 10k and say they're only affordable to dentists.

They tend to buy certain brands like top of the line 'Yeti's', with eye-watering prices.

 

[moXJO]

The important thing is interest rates. The original theory was to get them lower

 

[rcw1]

...
So who on the market is actually a winner, and which stocks are the worst affected by hysteria and BS news feed.
Really hoping for panic but keeping trading tomorrow as i want to start getting bargains.
Still not in cheap let alone bargain territory ..

Good evening @qldfrog
LYC looking like a winner at the minute bloke.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[qldfrog]

Good evening @qldfrog
LYC looking like a winner at the minute bloke.

Kind regards
rcw1

Yeap, I think of another one too i put a buy order for tomorrow

 

[divs4ever]

Aren't you assuming that the cost of American labour is cheaper than the cost of foreign labour + whatever tarrif is required?
And what about automation? Do "modern" factories employ the same number of workers as they did 20 years ago?

I think the relationship is more complicated than what has been suggested so far, hence the volatile response from the markets.

i am assuming at least 40% automation within the next 5 years , BUT humans will be required to build and fit out those factories giving some of the citizens extra jobs .. for a while

now with 'highly efficient factories ' were have the European path where the manufacturing becomes bloated and inefficient because it is not continously upgraded ( and safeguarded by tariffs and special contracts .. like Boeing ) on the Japan path where are aging, shrinking population robs the factories of consumers and the few skilled staff it needs and has to heavily rely on exports to mantain profitability

it seems most of the educated world has a shrinking population , and the uneducated world don't have the skills ( or money ) needed

maybe Trump will make the US better for the next 10-20 years , but after that China , India and Asia will not be denied their ascendency , the US/EU wasted too many brains on trivial pursuits and they won't reverse that

 

[Smurf1976]

And what about automation? Do "modern" factories employ the same number of workers as they did 20 years ago?

Having seen the economics of a few manufacturing / processing / refining operations the big ongoing 3 costs are materials, labour and energy. All that varies is what order they're in which comes down to the product being produced.

For the West to be competitive, energy and labour productivity are the keys in terms of price, along with product quality and reputation that affords some pricing power. Because material costs are much the same anywhere and we're not going to, indeed ideally don't want to, compete on labour cost per hour worked. So it's energy and labour productivity on the cost side, and ideally gaining some ability to charge a premium via reputation etc.

The other big cost is building the factory in the first place. That's a very "lumpy" cost however, it's not one that's incurred on a daily basis so once built tends to not factor in to the day to day operating decisions. It's obviously a real cost though.

Fundamentally making it work is the domain of technical people both engineers and trades. There aren't a lot of "grunt" jobs in a modern factory, and there's not much use for anyone who can't at least read a line diagram unless they're good at selling the product or something else useful like that.

As for the bikes, suffice to say mere mention of the word brings up painful memories. Some things are better left in the 1980's - I'll stick to walking, driving or I'll catch the bus. Less painful that way.

 

[DannyB0000]

In about 10 years from now we might have cyborg robots replacing people with jobs like the terminator movies. They won't need to be paid a salary, they would just technicians to give them a grease and oil change or program them. Your future operation might be performed by cyborg surgeons who could do the job more accurately then human surgeons.

I've heard of fully automated McDonalds restaurants in America being trialled, but I expect more automation to replace menial jobs in the future like burger flipping jobs.

 

[over9k]

I've done staggered buy orders in increments of 15.

525, 510, 495, 480, 465, 450. Amounts increasing each time to keep my average buy price chasing the actual market price.

SPY bottomed at 482. 480 buy didn't quiiiiite fill.

Irritating.

 

[The Triangle]

In about 10 years from now we might have cyborg robots replacing people with jobs like the terminator movies. They won't need to be paid a salary, they would just technicians to give them a grease and oil change or program them. Your future operation might be performed by cyborg surgeons who could do the job more accurately then human surgeons.

I've heard of fully automated McDonalds restaurants in America being trialled, but I expect more automation to replace menial jobs in the future like burger flipping jobs.

If we can tell boards to have women in minorities and homosexuals then eventually we're going to be telling employers to hire humans not robots.

That will be the next economic target maybe not this year maybe not next year but it will happen. And I wonder how they will do it? Can you apply a robot tax $0.10 per hour worked based on every watt of electricity consumes or something like that?

What will happen when we start getting robots playing in all the major sports and there is zero need for athletes anymore? AI can already replace actors.

 

[waterbottle]

Having seen the economics of a few manufacturing / processing / refining operations the big ongoing 3 costs are materials, labour and energy. All that varies is what order they're in which comes down to the product being produced.

For the West to be competitive, energy and labour productivity are the keys in terms of price, along with product quality and reputation that affords some pricing power. Because material costs are much the same anywhere and we're not going to, indeed ideally don't want to, compete on labour cost per hour worked. So it's energy and labour productivity on the cost side, and ideally gaining some ability to charge a premium via reputation etc.

The other big cost is building the factory in the first place. That's a very "lumpy" cost however, it's not one that's incurred on a daily basis so once built tends to not factor in to the day to day operating decisions. It's obviously a real cost though.

Fundamentally making it work is the domain of technical people both engineers and trades. There aren't a lot of "grunt" jobs in a modern factory, and there's not much use for anyone who can't at least read a line diagram unless they're good at selling the product or something else useful like that.

As for the bikes, suffice to say mere mention of the word brings up painful memories. Some things are better left in the 1980's - I'll stick to walking, driving or I'll catch the bus. Less painful that way.

Right. The grunts have gone the way of the dodo.

Which goes to the point- how does restoring American manufacturing actually help the worker?

The part of the electorate who want manufacturing to come back are probably those reminiscing about the grunt work that is now mostly gone.