CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

[Dona Ferentes]

This is cocking up the index at the moment. Along with BHP treading water.

Mums and Dads shouldn't be worried if they bought the IPO at 6 bucks or whatever it was. Bloody hell, if you were a visionary back then with a spare $20k you'd be set.


View attachment 194002


For Australian sharemarket investors, it’s the elephant in the room: The market’s favourite stock, Commonwealth Bank, is ridiculously expensive.

Certainly, stockbrokers have been calling the biggest of the big four banks a ‘‘sell’’ for months. But, the brokers have been wrong for months … perhaps not for much longer.

CBA fell by more than 8 per cent last week as bank stocks had their worst week in more than four years. Traders noted how CBA fell by more than the wider index — and in one session was sold off more sharply than its rivals ANZ, NAB and Westpac.

But, for more than 800,000 mum and dad shareholders the primary fear is that CBA would need to fall by around one-third to drop to a level most experts now indicate as fair value.

To be precise, CBA would need to plunge from today’s level near $154 to around $107 in order to reach the so-called ‘‘consensus price target’’.

What’s more, as the bellwether stock for the wider ASX, any decline in the fortunes of the bank will immediately feed into the overall tempo of Australian share trading. CBA has been the outright winner among our blue chip stocks as rival banks barely kept up and miners drifted towards the bottom of their cycle, with BHP and Rio cutting dividends.

I believe it plunged upward today.

 

[Sean K]

I believe it plunged upward today.

More than Mums and Dads buying the dip by the look. Some very big players bought it up from the open.

I'm not sure why/how this happens except for trillion dollar traders with 30 year time frames take control.

 

[divs4ever]

This is cocking up the index at the moment. Along with BHP treading water.

Mums and Dads shouldn't be worried if they bought the IPO at 6 bucks or whatever it was. Bloody hell, if you were a visionary back then with a spare $20k you'd be set.


View attachment 194002


For Australian sharemarket investors, it’s the elephant in the room: The market’s favourite stock, Commonwealth Bank, is ridiculously expensive.

Certainly, stockbrokers have been calling the biggest of the big four banks a ‘‘sell’’ for months. But, the brokers have been wrong for months … perhaps not for much longer.

CBA fell by more than 8 per cent last week as bank stocks had their worst week in more than four years. Traders noted how CBA fell by more than the wider index — and in one session was sold off more sharply than its rivals ANZ, NAB and Westpac.

But, for more than 800,000 mum and dad shareholders the primary fear is that CBA would need to fall by around one-third to drop to a level most experts now indicate as fair value.

To be precise, CBA would need to plunge from today’s level near $154 to around $107 in order to reach the so-called ‘‘consensus price target’’.

What’s more, as the bellwether stock for the wider ASX, any decline in the fortunes of the bank will immediately feed into the overall tempo of Australian share trading. CBA has been the outright winner among our blue chip stocks as rival banks barely kept up and miners drifted towards the bottom of their cycle, with BHP and Rio cutting dividends.

eenie , meanie , whinee , mo which ETF will be the go ( BUY ? ) ( your ETF will be still carrying the div. payout until the next ex )

( don't forget the CBA heavy LICs either )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

well , LICs have been selling CBA off, if you'd paid attention. A difficult task, I know.
.
moving on... this whole "mums and dads" narrative makes me laugh. More likely, there are a whole bunch of "'grandmas and grandpas" who have held for a while, some even since IPO, most likely not throwing the 'paper round money' into it but caught up in the privatisation rounds: Telstra, NRMA, AMP, etc, and lucked out / amnesial about those duds. Bought and held.

And here's the thing... PE, EPG, slowing growth, NIMs, all those anal lists trying to build an argument/ trying to prise their shares off them ... doesn't cut it. A rising dividend, twice a year, better than the pension. it's a home finance biz signing up their kids for 30 years, it'll be around for decades, ... the yield isn't 3 percent, it's higher based for the invested dollars. And besides, sell and there's CGT. big lost cost.

So, is the premium justified? Quite likely, until there's a real blow-out, internally or externally induced

 

[qldfrog]

well , LICs have been selling CBA off, if you'd paid attention. A difficult task, I know.
.
moving on... this whole "mums and dads" narrative makes me laugh. More likely, there are a whole bunch of "'grandmas and grandpas" who have held for a while, some even since IPO, most likely not throwing the 'paper round money' into it but caught up in the privatisation rounds: Telstra, NRMA, AMP, etc, and lucked out / amnesial about those duds. Bought and held.

And here's the thing... PE, EPG, slowing growth, NIMs, all those anal lists trying to build an argument/ trying to prise their shares off them ... doesn't cut it. A rising dividend, twice a year, better than the pension. it's a home finance biz signing up their kids for 30 years, it'll be around for decades, ... the yield isn't 3 percent, it's higher based for the invested dollars. And besides, sell and there's CGT. big lost cost.

So, is the premium justified? Quite likely, until there's a real blow-out, internally or externally induced

News from my CBA put play discussed earlier; I sold one put @156 expiry 19/06 today at $9.5 ,was bought $8 on the 16/01;
2 more to sell when the panic will hit, I should get much higher but today: CBA is the typical aussie stock, like BHP, she'll be right....
Let's see what wall street send us tonight
extract of excel with added text:

CBA3V7

24/02/2025

CBA put option 19/06/2025@156

16/01/2025​

1​

bought at $8.00​

for​

$810.00

sold at $9.500​

got​

$919.66​

profit $109.66​

or 13.54%​

​

​

 

[Dona Ferentes]

below $148 ...& taking the index down

 

[qldfrog]

News from my CBA put play discussed earlier; I sold one put @156 expiry 19/06 today at $9.5 ,was bought $8 on the 16/01;
2 more to sell when the panic will hit, I should get much higher but today: CBA is the typical aussie stock, like BHP, she'll be right....
Let's see what wall street send us tonight
extract of excel with added text:

CBA3V7

24/02/2025

CBA put option 19/06/2025@156

16/01/2025​

1​

bought at $8.00​

for​

$810.00

sold at $9.500​

got​

$919.66​

profit $109.66​

or 13.54%​

​

​

so the result for the put play: 15.55% return in less than 2 month, and a counter to my losses on index ETF etc

CBA3V7

24/02/2025

CBA put option 19/06/2025@156

16/01/2025​

1​

$8.00​

$10.00​

$810.00

$9.500​

$30.34​

$919.66​

$109.66​

13.54%​

CBA3V7

7/03/2025

16/01/2025​

1​

$8.00​

$11.02​

$811.02

$9.500​

$30.34​

$919.66​

$108.64​

13.40%​

CBA3V7

7/03/2025

16/01/2025​

1​

$8.00​

$10.00​

$810.00

$10.000​

$30.34​

$969.66​

$159.66​

19.71%​

buy

$2,431.02​

sell

$2,808.98​

$377.96​

15.55%​

 

[Dona Ferentes]

a year of differentiation... for 2022 and into 2023 there was little difference.

by early 2024, CBA pulled ahead of the Financials index and have held that gap

 

[Dona Ferentes]

a year of differentiation... for 2022 and into 2023 there was little difference.

by early 2024, CBA pulled ahead of the Financials index and have held that gap

continuing the occasional series on Deliberation Day*

*..will revisit them in 5 days time**
**for my own benefit

 

[Dona Ferentes]

continuing the occasional series ...
*..will revisit them in 5 days time*

Now that TDS (Tariff Disruption Shock) has been around since late 2nd April, as expected certain sectors are doing better than others.

today's close $149.14

**for my own benefit

 

[Dona Ferentes]

More than Mums and Dads buying the dip by the look. Some very big players bought it up from the open.

I'm not sure why/how this happens except for trillion dollar traders with 30 year time frames take control.

maybe

closed at $161.25.

A tale of two banks: What CBA and Lloyds tells us about the ASX​

In a presentation to investors last week, Regal’s Phil King put up a slide that compared Australia’s Commonwealth Bank to major British lender Lloyds Bank.

On most measures, their financial metrics were identical. CBA has $975 billion worth of loans and $75 billion of equity compared to $937 billion of loans and $80 billion of equity at Lloyds.

CBA is expected to deliver a $10.5 billion profit in the coming financial year, slightly below the $11.7 billion that analysts expect Lloyds to achieve.

But CBA’s market capitalisation of $250 billion is three times larger than the UK lender’s $82 billion market value. Put differently, CBA’s price to earnings ratio is 24 times, more than triple Lloyds’ seven times multiple.

Why the difference? We spent the best part of last year trying to explain why the Commonwealth Bank’s share price appreciated so much despite modest prospects of profit growth.

So too, it seems, have hedge funds including Regal, which actually shorted the banks during last year and into 2025, only to be swamped by a seemingly endless tide of capital.

And it wasn’t faithful mum-and-dad investors bidding up CBA’s share price. They were net sellers throughout the year. Instead, there appeared to be two forces. The first was investors pulling money out of China, and anything China-related, which meant much of that capital that was invested in the region found its way into ASX-listed stocks such as CBA.

The other force is the weight of superannuation capital that has been crammed onto the bank’s share register to ensure super returns do not deviate too much from the ASX 300 benchmark, which the funds cannot afford to trail.
The investment approaches and the incentives of the Australian and British pension systems, according to King, explain the difference in valuations between the two banks.
“The pension plans in Australia have been buying CBA for the last 20 or 30 years, whereas the pension plans in the UK have been selling their stock market and banks such as Lloyds for the same period of time,” King said.
.
.
maybe (don't mention Opthea)

 

[qldfrog]

maybe

closed at $161.25.

A tale of two banks: What CBA and Lloyds tells us about the ASX​

In a presentation to investors last week, Regal’s Phil King put up a slide that compared Australia’s Commonwealth Bank to major British lender Lloyds Bank.

On most measures, their financial metrics were identical. CBA has $975 billion worth of loans and $75 billion of equity compared to $937 billion of loans and $80 billion of equity at Lloyds.

CBA is expected to deliver a $10.5 billion profit in the coming financial year, slightly below the $11.7 billion that analysts expect Lloyds to achieve.

But CBA’s market capitalisation of $250 billion is three times larger than the UK lender’s $82 billion market value. Put differently, CBA’s price to earnings ratio is 24 times, more than triple Lloyds’ seven times multiple.

Why the difference? We spent the best part of last year trying to explain why the Commonwealth Bank’s share price appreciated so much despite modest prospects of profit growth.

So too, it seems, have hedge funds including Regal, which actually shorted the banks during last year and into 2025, only to be swamped by a seemingly endless tide of capital.

And it wasn’t faithful mum-and-dad investors bidding up CBA’s share price. They were net sellers throughout the year. Instead, there appeared to be two forces. The first was investors pulling money out of China, and anything China-related, which meant much of that capital that was invested in the region found its way into ASX-listed stocks such as CBA.

The other force is the weight of superannuation capital that has been crammed onto the bank’s share register to ensure super returns do not deviate too much from the ASX 300 benchmark, which the funds cannot afford to trail.
The investment approaches and the incentives of the Australian and British pension systems, according to King, explain the difference in valuations between the two banks.
“The pension plans in Australia have been buying CBA for the last 20 or 30 years, whereas the pension plans in the UK have been selling their stock market and banks such as Lloyds for the same period of time,” King said.
.
.
maybe (don't mention Opthea)

Well, time to buy another short at opening

 

[peter2]

CBA is back near all time highs while the market index remains 8% lower. That's an impressive show of relative strength.

 

[Sean K]

I remember when banks had a dividend yield of about 6% and a pe of around 12.

What's going on here?

 

[qldfrog]

I remember when banks had a dividend yield of about 6% and a pe of around 12.

What's going on here?

View attachment 197943

Bought another round of put..3rd time
Hope to have as good or better than first 2.

 

[rolly1]

I remember when banks had a dividend yield of about 6% and a pe of around 12.

What's going on here?

Stupidity

 

[Sean K]

Stupidity

It's been going on since it broke through $110.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

bonkers ... as high as $167.40 (ATH of $167.92)

 

[Ferret]

It is crazy.

I've finally offloaded mine today. More than half held since 1993!

 

[rolly1]

It's been going on since it broke through $110.

I think there is alot of fomo going on there. Most expensive bank in the world but that doesn't mean it can't go higher lol.