Let us spare a thought for our Victorian ASF Members

[macca]

Macca,
I don't want to be rude, and hardly know the exact science, but I suspect getting 20min of sunlight exposure will always bet a pill in a bottle.

I subscribe to the idea that sunlight is necessary for our immune system to be robust, that is how we evolved of 10,000's of years.

Not rude at all, we are here to discuss things not to lecture (well most of us)

I agree about sunshine, in days gone by most of the well respected hospitals had areas where people were wheeled out each day to sit in the sun.

Sanitariums for the chronically ill always had lawns and gardens, there are many photos showing convalescing servicemen and women after the wars all sitting out in the sun.

The problems started when we all moved indoors and the Slip Slop Slap campaign became the norm, there are many children today that are actually Vit D deficient which is not surprising.

When I was a kid we left home after breakfast with the instruction to be home before dark, we were always in the sun.

I am paying for that now, ATM I have 10 stitches in me where I have had two sun spots cut out. Two months ago exactly the same thing, so my kids see me getting these things frozen and cut every year and cover my grandkids up to prevent it.

It is a balancing act, Doctors are actually saying that the SSS campaign is too effective and needs to be wound back a bit.

I think that Vitamin D should be tested when people get their annual blood tests, if it is below 50 then buy a bottle of D3.

Consider the damage to the economy every winter with colds and flu, if everyone was aware of the importance of Vit D they could be sure to get some sun exposure in Autumn to build it up or simply get into the Vit D pills.

I used to get a cold in April/May and sniffle my way through the winter until the hot days started, a bit of sunshine and I would get better.

I stopped going in the sun because of my many skin problems so now I have to supplement my Vit D and I have not had a cold for the 10 years that I have been taking it

 

[qldfrog]

Although, being aware that one must never be afraid to change one's mind @qldfrog , should new information or data cast a shadow on your cognitive presumptions, is very important. There are many peer reviewed articles out there which are not valid.

It's called novel coronavirus because it is new. My estimation is that it has a few tricks for us yet, and as you say one should be open to the scientific method.

From Wikipedia.

The scientific method is an empirical method of acquiring knowledge that has characterized the development of science since at least the 17th century. It involves careful observation, applying rigorous skepticism about what is observed, given that cognitive assumptions can distort how one interprets the observation. It involves formulating hypotheses, via induction, based on such observations; experimental and measurement-based testing of deductions drawn from the hypotheses; and refinement (or elimination) of the hypotheses based on the experimental findings. These are principles of the scientific method, as distinguished from a definitive series of steps applicable to all scientific enterprises.

Though diverse models for the scientific method are available, there is in general a continuous process that includes observations about the natural world. People are naturally inquisitive, so they often come up with questions about things they see or hear, and they often develop ideas or hypotheses about why things are the way they are. The best hypotheses lead to predictions that can be tested in various ways. The most conclusive testing of hypotheses comes from reasoning based on carefully controlled experimental data. Depending on how well additional tests match the predictions, the original hypothesis may require refinement, alteration, expansion or even rejection. If a particular hypothesis becomes very well supported, a general theory may be developed.

gg

fully agree GG, and what you do usually is experimental science so you look at a problem, tweak parameters and check if this prove an hypothesis, obviously like with quantic mecanics (english?) previous truth might change so you find experiments to confirm these;
in term of weather influence on covid , the experiments were played in real life all across China then europe; a very basic understanding of local weather will quickly explain why my homeplace was especially hardly hit: cold..but not too cold and extremely wet condition aka caricature of UK weather, no snow, just miserable, the western side was less affected...wet but not so cold and the southern part was warmer;
Then move to Italy and Spain and you will find the same scenario, which also matches in vitro experiments for virus longevity outside the body;
->Which is why the top scientists in France and Europe do not dispute that , it is a given and the bad part is that winter is coming so they are openly worried about that;
Obviously, our virus must be different; ROL
This, the story about a so called vaccine against a corona virus are so far away from basic scientific knowledge that I can not trust anything anymore blindly.
Talk about a treatment, a miracle one and i will be all ears, a vaccine: yeah sure, if brought via a time travel machine.. and so on
May the plebe follow the fake science if they want but please , I spent my whole life following scientific processes, that has build both my wealth and position , but my ethic has also caused me trouble more than once: i can not swallow garbage because I am supposed to.
Have we all forgotten how mask were supposed to be useless? People looking at me as if I was an alien in March when I was shopping with protection...
Our government, even WHO was saying: no need for masks..seriously? and I have to put my life in the hands of these jokers?

I wish i was ignorant, but I am not completely so try to understand everything: the vitamin D and Zinc is not just a hippy belief, there are chemical reasons on how it works etc;
Yesterday, I gave figures, I try to post a few facts on FB for example,pure number for perspective, hash hard data-> I had to delete: just figures that no one can or was contesting , but it was too inconvenient a truth..ultimately, i deleted this this morning; so what? Let them die ?
So for my family and friends, i give them some opinion, when to be scared or not, the actual risks..stats and numbers, not emotions;

My position
if you are in the at risk group, please take vit D, get some fresh air and sun, use masks when useful..aka inside, in public transports, etc
definitively follow distancing and hand washing, increase zinc if deficient and maybe even maybe aspirin, which is not a bad idea even outside covid
Not clear on this one vs covid, I have not looked deep enough there but if I was at risk, I would.just personal opinion
@macca , @Knobby22 any personal feeling about aspirin?
And i believe we can all agree that the above are not recommendations..I am not qualified, but these supplements are likely to be without much risk
Anyway, you can not find anyone more prone to follow proper experimental process.

 

[Smurf1976]

if you are in the at risk group, please take vit D, get some fresh air and sun, use masks when useful..aka inside, in public transports, etc
definitively follow distancing and hand washing, increase zinc if deficient and maybe even maybe aspirin, which is not a bad idea even outside covid

Emphasis mine.

Off all situations, public transport is one to avoid if possible in my view. If you're able to travel by car, walking or simply avoid traveling at all then doing so would be preferable.

The benefits are not only that you avoid exposing yourself to others who may be infected in a confined space but that you also avoid exposing others in the scenario where you're an asymptomatic carrier. Public transport is particularly problematic given that by its very nature it places substantial numbers of people in very close proximity, indeed in cities it's not unknown that involuntary direct contact with others on trains in particular is unavoidable. Fewer people using it also means those still needing to use it can spread further apart whilst on board.

Buses, trains etc should be left for those with no alternative in my view. If you've got a legitimate need to travel, and have some other means of doing so, then use that other means.

 

[qldfrog]

Emphasis mine.

Off all situations, public transport is one to avoid if possible in my view. If you're able to travel by car, walking or simply avoid traveling at all then doing so would be preferable.

The benefits are not only that you avoid exposing yourself to others who may be infected in a confined space but that you also avoid exposing others in the scenario where you're an asymptomatic carrier. Public transport is particularly problematic given that by its very nature it places substantial numbers of people in very close proximity, indeed in cities it's not unknown that involuntary direct contact with others on trains in particular is unavoidable. Fewer people using it also means those still needing to use it can spread further apart whilst on board.

Buses, trains etc should be left for those with no alternative in my view. If you've got a legitimate need to travel, and have some other means of doing so, then use that other means.

a week ago, a carriage for myself to the city and i was wearing a mask so everyone wo mask avoided me...the logic....

 

[macca]

fully agree GG, and what you do usually is experimental science so you look at a problem, tweak parameters and check if this prove an hypothesis, obviously like with quantic mecanics (english?) previous truth might change so you find experiments to confirm these;
in term of weather influence on covid , the experiments were played in real life all across China then europe; a very basic understanding of local weather will quickly explain why my homeplace was especially hardly hit: cold..but not too cold and extremely wet condition aka caricature of UK weather, no snow, just miserable, the western side was less affected...wet but not so cold and the southern part was warmer;
Then move to Italy and Spain and you will find the same scenario, which also matches in vitro experiments for virus longevity outside the body;
->Which is why the top scientists in France and Europe do not dispute that , it is a given and the bad part is that winter is coming so they are openly worried about that;
Obviously, our virus must be different; ROL
This, the story about a so called vaccine against a corona virus are so far away from basic scientific knowledge that I can not trust anything anymore blindly.
Talk about a treatment, a miracle one and i will be all ears, a vaccine: yeah sure, if brought via a time travel machine.. and so on
May the plebe follow the fake science if they want but please , I spent my whole life following scientific processes, that has build both my wealth and position , but my ethic has also caused me trouble more than once: i can not swallow garbage because I am supposed to.
Have we all forgotten how mask were supposed to be useless? People looking at me as if I was an alien in March when I was shopping with protection...
Our government, even WHO was saying: no need for masks..seriously? and I have to put my life in the hands of these jokers?

I wish i was ignorant, but I am not completely so try to understand everything: the vitamin D and Zinc is not just a hippy belief, there are chemical reasons on how it works etc;
Yesterday, I gave figures, I try to post a few facts on FB for example,pure number for perspective, hash hard data-> I had to delete: just figures that no one can or was contesting , but it was too inconvenient a truth..ultimately, i deleted this this morning; so what? Let them die ?
So for my family and friends, i give them some opinion, when to be scared or not, the actual risks..stats and numbers, not emotions;

My position
if you are in the at risk group, please take vit D, get some fresh air and sun, use masks when useful..aka inside, in public transports, etc
definitively follow distancing and hand washing, increase zinc if deficient and maybe even maybe aspirin, which is not a bad idea even outside covid
Not clear on this one vs covid, I have not looked deep enough there but if I was at risk, I would.just personal opinion
@macca , @Knobby22 any personal feeling about aspirin?
And i believe we can all agree that the above are not recommendations..I am not qualified, but these supplements are likely to be without much risk
Anyway, you can not find anyone more prone to follow proper experimental process.

If anyone cares to read my very early posts on Covid you will find that I have been yapping on about all of these things since then.

Taiwan is the expert at surviving nasty bugs from China, they have had a Total of Seven deaths, they started issuing 10 free masks a week back in December.

Vitamin D is a no brainer, supplement or get lots of winter sun, at least 30 mins a day to do any good, still may not be enough. If you have a darker complexion you will need at least double that.

Aspirin is a proven remedy to stop blood clots so now that we know that Covid can cause blood clots then it makes sense to me to utilise something so well known and cheap.

Zinc is what the Doc in New York used to stall the development of Covid so eat your oysters

Avoid crowds and social distance even with a mask

If the medical profession would start doing positive things instead of running away we may get out of this mess one day.

The bug ain't going away, we Cannot keep shutting down our economy, this latest shutdown is the second of many to come, we simply cannot afford it.

 

[basilio]

If you have friends, family or even just acquaintances in Melbourne they will certainly appreciate a friendly call.

From my observations/conversations morale in Melbourne is low. The full pressure of Stage 4 ISO with curfew, minimal shops, financial pressures and concern about the spread of Covid 19 is taking its toll.
Particularly difficult for families with teenagers as well.

Cheers

 

[cynic]

 

[IFocus]

25% failure rate for home quarantine compliance in Victoria, that's nuts no hope of containment if they cannot get to the bottom of it.

 

[Smurf1976]

Particularly difficult for families with teenagers as well.

I've heard some dramatically differing reports, from friends and so on, about how people are coping with the whole thing.

At one extreme, grown adults really struggling with the whole thing and just not coping. To be blunt they've pretty much lost the plot it seems in terms of their ability to cope with the whole thing. I've heard a few credible reports of that sort of thing now although I haven't seen it first hand.

At the other extreme, not in Melbourne but I'm assured by the parents that their daughter, who is only in grade 4 at school, primary school that is, is more than capable of holding her own in a serious adult discussion regarding the issue. They're a tad shocked but not drastically - she always seemed clever and focused but any doubt there has now been very clearly removed.

So it seems to be applying the pressure and pushing people in both directions. Those with ability that might otherwise have gone unnoticed for quite some time have come to the fore. Where cracks exist they're turning into gaping holes. Etc.

 

[sptrawler]

I've heard some dramatically differing reports, from friends and so on, about how people are coping with the whole thing.

At one extreme, grown adults really struggling with the whole thing and just not coping. To be blunt they've pretty much lost the plot it seems in terms of their ability to cope with the whole thing. I've heard a few credible reports of that sort of thing now although I haven't seen it first hand.

At the other extreme, not in Melbourne but I'm assured by the parents that their daughter, who is only in grade 4 at school, primary school that is, is more than capable of holding her own in a serious adult discussion regarding the issue. They're a tad shocked but not drastically - she always seemed clever and focused but any doubt there has now been very clearly removed.

So it seems to be applying the pressure and pushing people in both directions. Those with ability that might otherwise have gone unnoticed for quite some time have come to the fore. Where cracks exist they're turning into gaping holes. Etc.

It certainly will be testing peoples coping mechanisms, also a lot will depend on how they have structured their finances, those who live hand to mouth while supporting a expensive lifestyle will be having a massive reality check.
Testing times for all, but the lucky ones, who have an ongoing job through this.
Hopefully the infection numbers drop quickly.

 

[basilio]

Next big crisis in Victoria.
Coronavirus outbreaks grow in Victorian group homes for people living with disabilities
More than 70 cases of coronavirus have been recorded in disability care in Victoria, and advocates fear the sector could be headed for a similar crisis to aged care without greater support.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...-disability-group-home-care-victoria/12535692

 

[Knobby22]

278 cases .... it's working!

 

[satanoperca]

278 cases .... it's working!

It is only one day, bit early to call it.

And if you call working, destroying peoples business, jobs & homes, yes it is doing a great job at that.

Also note : we are not allowed to move, leave of homes unless it is an emergency, for food, oh - 1hour outside for exercise and travel no further than 5kms, one person per household can go to the supermarket, kids at home, not at school, workers at home, not in the office or cafe or factories, everything is shutdown.

So for it to work, we will just have to remain shut down forever, because once our freedoms are returned and people start mingling again, the process starts all over again.

 

[basilio]

It is only one day, bit early to call it.

And if you call working, destroying peoples business, jobs & homes, yes it is doing a great job at that.

Also note : we are not allowed to move, leave of homes unless it is an emergency, for food, oh - 1hour outside for exercise and travel no further than 5kms, one person per household can go to the supermarket, kids at home, not at school, workers at home, not in the office or cafe or factories, everything is shutdown.

So for it to work, we will just have to remain shut down forever, because once our freedoms are returned and people start mingling again, the process starts all over again.

That can't happen can it ? We can't live under perpetual emergency measures like this for an extended period of time.

The premise of a quarantine or in this case a lockdown is stopping the spread of the virus. From everything we know to date almost all active cases will not be infectious after 2-3 weeks. With that in mind we can hope that with a strict quarantine period of up to 6 weeks there should be minimal risks.

We could then return to a more open and integrated society - but...

However I'm not sure health officials would feel confident about reopening mass community activities until a decent vaccine was proven or there was a way of very quickly identifying infected people and ensuring their isolation while they were infectious.

Or of course some really effective means of strengthening peoples immune systems and also dealing with the illness. There have been many comments about the value of Vitamin D in strengthening the immune system. Practically speaking I don't believe there is a single measure to deal with this issue.

------------------------------------
One of the huge factors in keeping people safe will be their emotional health. There is no doubt that isolation, worry and poor health habits will exacerbate both the illness as well as other health problems.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-04/coronavirus-how-long-does-it-last/12419770

 

[basilio]

“Daniel Andrews is a dictator and also he didn’t use the army enough” – read today’s News Corp editorial



Other News

EDITORIAL: We’ve said it in our editorials before. We are living under the iron rule of what can only be described as a despotic regime. Citizens confined to their homes, cafes and restaurants shuttered, police patrolling the streets, with fines for anyone who doesn’t comply. And don’t even dare go out after 8pm. If this isn’t a police state we don’t know what is. The North Koreans have it easier than this.

And now we hear that Daniel Andrews had the opportunity to bring in the army to control Victoria’s citizens, and he refused. What an utter disgrace. When it is so clear that what the streets of Melbourne need more than ever is a bigger military presence, more boots on the ground, Daniel Andrews failed us. Too weak to take control of his own state. Too soft on law and order to get people into line. When Victoria was crying out for the army to take over, Dictator Dan said no. This is what anarchy looks like.

And one more thing. When will Dan Andrews take responsibility for the New Zealand COVID outbreak? Four cases yesterday; four more cases today, yet still no word from the Victorian premier.

People will die because of this. But Daniel Andrews refuses to apologise. Once again he selfishly focuses purely on Victoria. He hasn’t apologised for the new Nickelback album yet either. But that’s a story for tomorrow’s editorial.

https://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/0...day_s_news_corp_editorial&utm_term=2020-08-13

 

[satanoperca]

That can't happen can it ? We can't live under perpetual emergency measures like this for an extended period of time.

The premise of a quarantine or in this case a lockdown is stopping the spread of the virus. From everything we know to date almost all active cases will not be infectious after 2-3 weeks. With that in mind we can hope that with a strict quarantine period of up to 6 weeks there should be minimal risks.

We could then return to a more open and integrated society - but...

However I'm not sure health officials would feel confident about reopening mass community activities until a decent vaccine was proven or there was a way of very quickly identifying infected people and ensuring their isolation while they were infectious.

Or of course some really effective means of strengthening peoples immune systems and also dealing with the illness. There have been many comments about the value of Vitamin D in strengthening the immune system. Practically speaking I don't believe there is a single measure to deal with this issue.

------------------------------------
One of the huge factors in keeping people safe will be their emotional health. There is no doubt that isolation, worry and poor health habits will exacerbate both the illness as well as other health problems.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-04/coronavirus-how-long-does-it-last/12419770

I will try and break down some of your very valid comments :

1. Can we live with lockdowns forever - No
2. 2-3weeks infectious period - maybe, but there will always be a situation where this is greater, can the virus survive longer than that say in your refrigerator or cold environments.
3. Vaccine - don't want to look like a doomsayer, but read the history of the development of vaccines, no holding my breath that we will ever see one that is even 60% effective and then the issue is will people be forced to take the vaccine or take it up voluntary.
4. Identify infected people, I wish it was as easy as adding something in the drinking water, that if you were infected, your face turned purple, but it is not. One element of this virus that all the experts are struggling with is the fact that you can be infected and thus infected others and not even know. I know for myself that I only know when some part of my body has been cut/intruded is when I see blood. Strange analogy.
5. Vitamin D, agreed, get it from sunlight and various other sources, but leads to an interesting discussion about the health and wellbeing of our community. Ie our bodies require fuel and some of that fuel must contain trace elements like zinc, magnesium etc Our food sources don't necessary contain those trace elements like they did in the past, so we rely on pharma's providing us supplements. So if people were more consciously aware of what their body requires to remain healthy and thus have a great chance of surviving a virus then we would not be in this situation, but alias we don't as a society. Ie the selling of soft drinks, they should be taxed as they provide no benefit to society and society has to pick up the bill for the damage they cause. Not saying they should be banned, but tax more heavily, like tobacco and alcohol.
6. Single measure, agreed, read the above, no single measure or thought, it is like marriage, it is a combination of elements that make it successful.
7. ........
8. Left 7, never liked the number 7, so 8 it is a lucky number, mental health.

 

[basilio]

This may be one of the ways we can quickly/easily identify people who are infected.

https://theconversation.com/these-d...ronavirus-most-have-a-100-success-rate-143756

I think the Government and medical authorities should turn attention to strengthening peoples capacity to resist COVID 19 (as well as other infections )

I think it represents a more positive approach and given that when restrictions are loosened there will still need to be care about minimising/reducing the impact of the virus.

And frankly it would improve overall health.

 

[Knobby22]

We need a test, perfect. I didn't vote for this guy by the way..

 

[IFocus]

Taiwan is the expert at surviving nasty bugs from China, they have had a Total of Seven deaths, they started issuing 10 free masks a week back in December.

There are really big lessens from Taiwan strange no one is talking about them.

 

[IFocus]

We need a test, perfect. I didn't vote for this guy by the way..View attachment 107480

An outsiders perspective.

Victoria is the jewel to be won in the Liberal Party crown and they have been frothing with rage after Andrews got in and to make it worse in some ways Andrews in the unlikely / accidental Premier.

I have wondered if the aggressive enforcement of restrictions in Victoria 1st time around was because authorities thought people would not behave or if the behaviour failings 2nd time around were in part because of the strict restrictions 1st time around. Maybe they were right 1st time and the current breakout confirms that.

Also interesting the Libs screaming about opening up and that Andrews was a dictator 1st time around seem to have gone to ground but the label has stuck such is politics.

Maybe Andrews can use the Federal governments tactics at dodging the age care home deaths (biggest % in Victoria) and just don't turn up each day?

It will be interesting how much damage will stick to Andrews when the virus is under control again.