WDS - Woodside Energy Group

[Value Collector]

I wasn't thinking of LNG so much as a direct pipeline.

I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm always cautious of any situation where someone has a "big gun" in whatever context that could be used if they really wanted to.

If they really wanted to build a pipeline, it's possible, it could be done.

I'm not saying avoid investing in Woodside, just that the geopolitical aspect of oil and gas is always something to keep a watch on with any related company in my view. Bearing in mind there's the potential for impacts in either direction - eg if Russian oil production drops, that's bullish for price, etc.

three points on a pipeline though,

1. Any potential pipeline is many years away from completion, because they haven’t even started building it yet, and would be harder than you think.

2. The cost of building and running such a long pipeline, would still probably be much more expensive than the cost of shipping LNG from Western Australia,

3. They already have many pipelines that were delivering gas into the international markets prior to the Ukraine war, at volumes larger than any pipeline to China would have ,and the Australian LNG market was doing just fine.

So the “threat” is not really will Russia build a pipeline to China, but instead will the Europeans tensions ease enough that Russian exports to Europe recover. But even then, Woodside made money before the Ukraine War and I believe it will after.

 

[Value Collector]

from another thread .. the proposed Druzhba pipeline into China

View attachment 209766
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Mercator and other projections are distortions.

Yep, but remember when that pipeline diagram ends and says “to China” that still a long way from the markets on the east coast.

And the true question is would that pipeline be cheaper than ships from Western Australia.

If some one offered to pay me $100 a week from now until that pipeline is complete, and then I pay them $100 a week for as long as it’s running into the future, I would take that deal,

 

[Value Collector]

maybe expensive initially , but the West is trying to restrict shipping routes

and can Australia be trusted as a trading partner when it habitually plays tag-along-Charlie to the US and UK ?

and Iran to India ( again through Afghanistan , partly funded by Russia and China .. well worth the PR to win over under-explored Afghanistan ) doesn't necessarily mean direct competition , say Iran gas and Russian oil or vice-versa

so don't tell me you believe the Russians blew up 3 of the 4 Russian Nordstream pipelines , even Europe now claims it was the Ukraine Gilligan and crew in a pleasure yacht ( not the Russians )

chances are the Russians have salvaged all the plant in the three destroyed pipelines , maybe even from the fourth pipeline ( which wasn't just in use ) given the seized assets ( in Germany ) i don't see any reason fort Russia , to even talk trade with Germany , let alone plan to trade with them again

if the Nordstream pipelines are so useful maybe Germany should redirect them to Norway ( and see who blows them up this time )

i note the lack of howling from 'Green ' groups at the sudden release of all that gas into 'the climate change '

The is some significant mountain ranges between India and Afghanistan, that might complicate things.

I don’t who sabotaged the pipelines, I am just saying that many pipelines exist to Europe, and have exported much more gas to international markets via those pipelines than any pipeline to China would do, and the Australian LNG exports thrived that whole time.

 

[Value Collector]

i hold WDS , but would urge caution for new-comers to the stock , it can disappoint in the short-term and now has a crapload of ex-BHP assets it has to integrate into the company ( 'transformational ' i think was the claim about the deal )

remember China now has a lot of investment money that is no longer going into US bonds , i expect much of that will be invested in BRICS allies ( like Indonesia )

I don’t hold much WDS, only a token holding that was split off a token holding of BHP I have, but I am happy to hold.

I have been rolling over/ selling out of the money put options on for a few years on 4000 shares generating income with the intent to take the shares if they ever get exercised, but beyond that not am not overly exposed to them.

I do like them from a stand point that I think they have some great gas assets, tbh at will be very much needed in the transition away from coal, and a bunch of it moves to market on ships, which can sail anywhere in the world.

 

[finicky]

Stay long fossil fuels.
Greg Canavan note today:

"One sector that appears well-positioned to deliver healthy, long-term returns is energy. Remember, tomorrow’s winners are the ones no one cares about today. And energy stocks are certainly on the scrap heap as far as investors are concerned.

So far today, I want to leave you with a video on where we are in the energy cycle: ‘Energy Profitability: Closer to Trough Than Peak’.

Traditional Energy Profitability: Closer To Trough Than Peak - Veriten

For the past month or so we have been pushing back on the "oil glut" narrative and the pervasive oil gloom that has existed...

veriten.com

Host Arjun Murti spent over 30 years on Wall Street as a sell-side equity research analyst, buy-side investor, advisor and board member covering the global energy sector.

He is a rational and thoughtful analyst of the sector, and I always make sure to listen to or watch his videos.

Given the huge amount of energy the world will need to power the AI revolution, I believe this sector isn’t receiving the attention it deserves. It’s why I remain comfortable with our overweight energy position despite its long-term underperformance."

Caveat: Greg did not refer to WDS in this note but he does still have WDS as a hold in his 'permanent capital portfolio' and increased his allocation to 7% on 22 September? Go figure, probably an oversight that he left it as a hold.

Held
Holding

 

[divs4ever]

Caveat: Greg did not refer to WDS in this note but he does still have WDS as a hold in his 'permanent capital portfolio' and increased his allocation to 7% on 22 September? Go figure, probably an oversight that he left it as a hold.

probably thinks WDS could still drift lower this year , meanwhile some coal miners are busy reducing costs

 

[finicky]

probably thinks WDS could still drift lower this year

But why then would he have increased his weighting on 22 Sept and sent out a note advising subscribers of the add?

 

[divs4ever]

But why then would he have increased his weighting on 22 Sept and sent out a note advising subscribers of the add?

that was add NOT back up the truck , i often assess 'a fair price ' ( on a stock ) and carefully accumulate in weakness , from memory WDS basically doubled in size with the BHP assets and then bought other assets , before fully assimilating the BHP assets

WDS is not NST under Bill Bearment who seemingly bolted on assets like a child sticking in merit badges in a scrap book

i read 'hold ' as watch ( and adjust ) carefully