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Use of Distribution in Options analysis

Joined
29 September 2005
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Hi all,

I am just wondering if many traders use statistical distribution of the share price when deciding weather or not to put on a trade. And the overall effectiveness of using this type of analysis.

Also what type of distribution do you use? Eg the most common seems to be normal distribution but I am wondering if there are other types, eg Logarithmic, which seems more effective.

Cheers Mick
 

1/ Lognormal because of 0

2/ Be aware of kurtosis/fat tails, especially if trend following.
 
Also review the volatility as well. For many years I sold strangles on the SPI futures based on MAE analysis. I stopped in 2001 because the volatility had dropped off so much it just wasn't worth the risk. You used to be able to get 28pts per month, but when I stopped it had dropped to about 12pts and as Wayne says, those fat tails will catch you one day
 
mswiggs said:
Thanks for your replies,

Nick whats MAE analysis? :$

Mick

Mick I can answer that as Nick's not online...

Maximum Adverse Excursion i.e. what's in those fat tails
 
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