I am just wondering if many traders use statistical distribution of the share price when deciding weather or not to put on a trade. And the overall effectiveness of using this type of analysis.
Also what type of distribution do you use? Eg the most common seems to be normal distribution but I am wondering if there are other types, eg Logarithmic, which seems more effective.
I am just wondering if many traders use statistical distribution of the share price when deciding weather or not to put on a trade. And the overall effectiveness of using this type of analysis.
Also what type of distribution do you use? Eg the most common seems to be normal distribution but I am wondering if there are other types, eg Logarithmic, which seems more effective.
Also review the volatility as well. For many years I sold strangles on the SPI futures based on MAE analysis. I stopped in 2001 because the volatility had dropped off so much it just wasn't worth the risk. You used to be able to get 28pts per month, but when I stopped it had dropped to about 12pts and as Wayne says, those fat tails will catch you one day