Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

Joined
11 March 2020
Posts
1,008
Reactions
1,156
Model Y now available in Australia

Model Y.png
 
Joined
11 March 2020
Posts
1,008
Reactions
1,156
Friday, Tesla SP finished up by ($31.91) +4.52%

Here’s what moved Tesla shares Thursday
Investors reading past the headlines saw more long-term good news for the electric vehicle leader.

What happened
As is often the case, there was no shortage of news and coverage on electric vehicle leader Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Thursday. That news had Tesla stock moving higher by as much as 1.4% early in the session, but the trend subsequently reversed, sending it down by nearly 3% relative to where it closed Wednesday. *Friday the stock finished up by ($31.91) +4.52%

So what
That initial jump could have stemmed from investors digging more deeply into a Reuters article published Wednesday that reported that Tesla will be suspending production at its Shanghai factory for two weeks at the beginning of July. The headline may have had investors turning negative about Tesla's near-term outlook, but the maintenance work scheduled for the plant is expected to increase its productivity. That should result in record production levels to come by the end of July, according to the report.

Another bit of news that drew a negative response from investors was the release of a May 30 interview with CEO Elon Musk in which he said Tesla's new factories in Berlin and Texas were both burning through cash and losing billions due to supply chain-related delays. Musk colorfully called the plants "gigantic money furnaces."

Musk said supply chain disruptions have been interfering with the company's ability to ramp production up at the two new facilities. According to CNBC, he summarized the situation by saying, "there's a ton of expense and hardly any output." He added that getting those new plants and the Shanghai factory running smoothly is "overwhelmingly" his top priority.

Now what
But while that interview was just released Wednesday, the comments were made several weeks ago. In the interim, the automaker has announced cost-savings measures and a plan to reduce salaried employee headcount, and Musk said that he expected to resolve the company's current challenges.

Tesla hasn't changed its guidance target for producing 1.5 million vehicles this year, and investors looking past the headlines probably helped the stock bounce back from its initial drop on Thursday.
 
Joined
2 February 2006
Posts
11,702
Reactions
1,403
Scroll 45% down (approx.) and you will find a Tesla and others profit/ loss calculator over the last five years:
If you had invested $1,000 in TSLA stock 10 years ago, today the investment would be worth:
$116,633
 
Joined
11 March 2020
Posts
1,008
Reactions
1,156

Why Tesla’s ‘robust fundamentals’ can offset a challenged quarter​

Tesla Inc. may be on track to report a “challenged quarter,” but there’s still plenty of reason to be optimistic about its stock, according to a Credit Suisse analyst.

“We believe the long-term case for Tesla is clear – Tesla remains the global leader in EV [electric vehicles], and amid rising supply chain risks, we believe Tesla’s lead over other automakers in the race to EV is only amplified given its lead in vertical integration and its prior EV experience,” Levy wrote.

Additionally, the company has implemented price increases in the wake of surging inflation, though Levy sees these price hikes as a sign of Tesla’s strong demand and notes that they will begin to manifest in financial results later this year or early next year given that they only cover new orders.

“We…continue to believe in our thesis that robust fundamentals ahead should outweigh the near-term challenges for Tesla such as the recent growth selloff, production disruptions in China, lingering semiconductor shortage and magnified inflationary pressures,” Levy wrote.


 
Last edited:
Joined
11 March 2020
Posts
1,008
Reactions
1,156
ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value per share of $4,600 in 2026.

The bull and bear cases, tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes respectively, are approximately $5,800 and $2,900 per share, as shown below.
We provide this open-source model to the public because we believe doing so strengthens the quality of our research. By sharing our assumptions and modeling methodologies we hope to solicit constructive feedback and criticism. As with open-source software, we believe that open-source research will prove to be more robust and accurate than research conducted non-transparently behind closed doors.[1]
Expected (Base), Bear, and Bull Case Tesla Per Share Price Targets

ARK’s Simulation OutputsARK’s 2026 Price Estimate (Per Share)Significance
Expected Value$4,600This projection is our expected value for Tesla’s stock price in 2026, based on our Monte Carlo analysis.
Bear$2,900We believe that there is a 25% probability that Tesla could be worth $2,900 per share or less in 2026.
Bull$5,800We believe that there is a 25% probability that Tesla could be worth $5,800 per share or more in 2026.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2022

Our updated Monte Carlo model moves the prior 2025 target out one year to 2026. For the benefit of readers, this article presents “expected” (or “base”), “bear,” and “bull” cases as a way of contextualizing the meaning of our 2026 share price expectations. Methodologically, we arrive at our base-case share price by averaging one million simulations produced by our Monte Carlo model. Our bear and bull cases are the 25th and 75th percentile values, respectively. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision, and are built on our modeling that reflect our biases and long term positive view of the company. Please see additional disclosure below on forecasts and hypothetical performance. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.

This research update is based on ARK’s new open-source Tesla model, which incorporates distributions for 38 independent inputs to simulate a range of potential outcomes for the company.
Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 60% of expected value and more than half of expected EBITDA in 2026.[2] Across our simulation set, we expect electric vehicles to constitute 57% of the company’s revenue in 2026, albeit at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue. The chart below breaks down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and value by business-line in this model.
nvest_041422_Blog_Tesla_Graph_Attributable-Revenue.png

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2022

 
Top