Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Antirnator]

has Russia actually stopped selling enriched uranium to the US yet

( i bet China will snap up any excess the North Korea doesn't need )

BTW China and Russia have been doing such deals for more than a decade

Trump wants to impose the sanctions but it is pointless without Europe doing it as well.

Russia is probably making most of its money off Oil.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-and-europe-do-billions-trade-with-russia-despite-sanctions-2025-09-15/

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

For all the rubbish you read the US and Russia are much more entangled economically than one realises.

A good example being that they both with the UK are the biggest supplier of "illegal" arms to third world countries and dictators in Asia and Africa.

This one of the reasons why Trump has been so easy on the UK and Russia. The Democrats were the same, just not so overtly. If you want to make money buy listed Defense, sorry Trump has relabelled it to War Stocks.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

For all the rubbish you read the US and Russia are much more entangled economically than one realises.
A good example being that they both with the UK are the biggest supplier of "illegal" arms to third world countries and dictators in Asia and Africa.

This one of the reasons why Trump has been so easy on the UK and Russia. The Democrats were the same, just not so overtly. If you want to make money buy listed Defense, sorry Trump has relabelled it to War Stocks.

gg

too right

"The five largest arms exporters in the world are consistently the United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany." UK would be close behind


Five permanent members of the UN Security Council: China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The United Nations officially began on 24 October 1945 - a bit awkward for Germany!

 

[divs4ever]

Trump wants to impose the sanctions but it is pointless without Europe doing it as well.

Russia is probably making most of its money off Oil.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-and-europe-do-billions-trade-with-russia-despite-sanctions-2025-09-15/

oil , nickel , diamonds , steel , nuclear power plants , was it Xeon gas which is very important for chip-making , uranium , enough grain that in a good year they donate to Africa , Russia still has financial levers to yank ( by directing those goodies to China , India , Brazil , Indonesia .. they don't even need to stop selling to all internationals )

 

[mullokintyre]

Even if they can get past the transition cost of moving manufacturing to the US, they have to go back to using foreign labour, which then defeats the purpose of exporting illegal workers from the US. The US has a tough few years ahead of itself.

Trump is just selling fantasies to the US voter. Why didn't he put his own money where his mouth is instead of pumping all that money into Bitcoin?

​

Companies are struggling to fill manufacturing positions, let alone plan for what Trump's administration has in mind​

• US manufacturing is struggling to fill existing jobs as tariffs aim to bring back more.
• The manufacturing industry faces a skills gap, an aging workforce, and negative perceptions.
• Trade experts say China has advantages in manufacturing from subsidies and low-cost labor.

The US manufacturing renaissance may need a lot more than tariffs.

President Donald Trump wants to bring back manufacturing, but even if his tariffs manage to stimulate growth in this sector, the industry faces a skills gap, an aging workforce, and negative perceptions — not to mention the potentially mounting cost of hiring domestic labor in comparison to countries like China.

Experts and researchers in trade told Business Insider that the manufacturing sector is struggling to fill the existing open positions.

"Manufacturers have faced a structural challenge for multiple years now," said Carolyn Lee, president and executive director of the Manufacturing Institute. "The heart of that is most people don't know what modern manufacturing is all about, that we still are challenged by a perception of what the industry used to be."

The president’s crypto holdings are worth more than any single real estate asset in his portfolio, and even more than the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower.​

Donald Trump is cashing in on crypto. Over the last nine months, beginning slightly before the election, he has stirred up new ventures, new coins, new noise. All of it makes the president money, but how much? About $1 billion, according to Forbes’ calculations, lifting his
net worth to an estimated $5.6 billion.

US manufacturing was crippled for a long time before TRmp or even Biden got in Power.
From the David Stockman letter

 

[sptrawler]

US manufacturing was crippled for a long time before TRmp or even Biden got in Power.
From the David Stockman letter

View attachment 208983

The unfortunate result of globalisation and now most Western countries are printing money to support their welfare programs, one wonders how long that is sustainable for.

 

[TimeISmoney]

US manufacturing was crippled for a long time before TRmp or even Biden got in Power.
From the David Stockman letter

View attachment 208983

I come from the automotive industry, and it's been shrinking in the US since the late 80's; all the manufacturing places like Detroit and Rochester have turned into slums because people migrated there and built lives around the industry.

Trump is selling everyone a fake dream; it's just impossible to keep the current living standards and turn the clock back 50 years. There were huge problems back then with unions, pay rates and worker rights, and that was when the world was much cheaper to live in. People residing in trailer parks because they couldn't afford anywhere else that were originally designed for holiday makers.

Transitioning manufacturing to other parts of third world economies, away from China will be their only option.

 

[mullokintyre]

More signs that things ae slowing in the USA.
The CASS freight index measure is showing a continued alowing of freight movements in North America.


The containerised freight Index shows a similar slowing down

The BDi Index has made somewhat of recovery, perhaps a reflection of the bulk commodities like COAL, Iron Ore, and pteroleum products that are still being shipped to China.


Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Another data point in the freight contraction.
Sales of heavy trucks are falling, suggesting that the freight market might be getting to hard.
From MSN News



Mick

 

[basilio]

By the way, or btw as we say, what was all that Rubbish about a "comedian" called I am told Jimmie Camel. The poster @basilio says he has been sacked. So effing what. What in gawd's name has that got to do with anything related to investing that might interest ASF members ?

Because GG it is just one HUGE new example of Trumps US becoming an Authoritarian State.

Of course that isn't necessarily a problem for investors is it ? All you have to do is make sure you say nothing to upset the Authorities, pay the appropriate bribes if you want anything done and work out which industries the bosses have an interest in to secure your investments.

Naturally you have to be prepared to drop off anyone who doesn't support the "Authorities" because any contact with these "extremists" and "Enemies of the State" makes you suss as well. And no point show any crocodile tears when such Enemies of the State disappear quietly or publicly. A public cheer will be require to show your enthusiastic support.

And finally you have to take the long view. This New World Order will NOT be voted out at the next "election". Because the whole point of controlling the entire apparatus of Government, Bureaucracy, Media, Education and Business is making sure you stay in power. Forever.

 

[Antirnator]

Because GG it is just one HUGE new example of Xi Jinping's CCP Authoritarian State.

Of course that isn't necessarily a problem for investors is it ? All you have to do is make sure you say nothing to upset the Authorities, pay the appropriate bribes if you want anything done and work out which industries the bosses have an interest in to secure your investments.

Naturally you have to be prepared to drop off anyone who doesn't support the "Authorities" because any contact with these "extremists" and "Enemies of the State" makes you suss as well. And no point show any crocodile tears when such Enemies of the State disappear quietly or publicly. A public cheer will be require to show your enthusiastic support.

And finally you have to take the long view. This New World Order will NOT be voted out at the next "election". Because the whole point of controlling the entire apparatus of Government, Bureaucracy, Media, Education and Business is making sure you stay in power. Forever.

I fixed it for you.

Don't forget that most CCP leaders will live to 150 because they are getting organs from the prisons as per Putin's discussion with him on victory day.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[mullokintyre]

Not to be outdone, the Bank of America has a chart of YoY construction spending.
8 times out of the last nine times that the US has experienced recessions, this metric has gone negative,
Mick

 

[Antirnator]

@basilio

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Because GG it is just one HUGE new example of Trumps US becoming an Authoritarian State.

Of course that isn't necessarily a problem for investors is it ? All you have to do is make sure you say nothing to upset the Authorities, pay the appropriate bribes if you want anything done and work out which industries the bosses have an interest in to secure your investments.

Naturally you have to be prepared to drop off anyone who doesn't support the "Authorities" because any contact with these "extremists" and "Enemies of the State" makes you suss as well. And no point show any crocodile tears when such Enemies of the State disappear quietly or publicly. A public cheer will be require to show your enthusiastic support.

And finally you have to take the long view. This New World Order will NOT be voted out at the next "election". Because the whole point of controlling the entire apparatus of Government, Bureaucracy, Media, Education and Business is making sure you stay in power. Forever.

Three points champ.

• The out of control left led Americans to vote for a loopy psychopath like Trump. Your mob and Trump are very similar.
• You need counselling, see a psychologist.
• Start a thread on Trump's psyche (and yours) and just post appropriate stock and economic content on this thread.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Three points champ.

• The out of control left led Americans to vote for a loopy psychopath like Trump. Your mob and Trump are very similar.
• You need counselling, see a psychologist.
• Start a thread on Trump's psyche (and yours) and just post appropriate stock and economic content on this thread.

gg

well according to my calculations the US was a dumpster fire BEFORE Trump was elected , so much so no talented Democrat was allowed to run . ( thus the Biden -> Harris fiasco )

so i gave Trump a chance to fix a few things

so far, he has been 300% showmanship , some minor fixes ( patched up a few holes on the border crossings ) made a complete farce of the tariff strategy

now i am old enough to remember Trumps 'entertainment career ' including in 'pro-wrestling ' so what i mostly see is acting

maybe next election they should vote in Penn & Teller and we can see some real slight-of-hand

the US problem is the fat-wallet donors own all the important candidates ( President . Senators and Congress ) and the corporate media makes sure it stays that way

 

[Smurf1976]

Trump is selling everyone a fake dream; it's just impossible to keep the current living standards and turn the clock back 50 years.

I think the bit everyone's missing can be summed up with a shortened quote:

it's just impossible to keep the current living standards

The way I'm seeing it, there's simply no option whatsoever for the US or indeed most Western countries to retain their current standard of living. That isn't an option no matter who's in government.

What those who argue for manufacturing are basically arguing for is a return to living standards circa 1967 with today's technology.

What those who argue against manufacturing are arguing for is, in practice, a return to living standards circa 1914 at best.

Given the two options, I'll take 1967 because however bad it is, it sure beats 1914. It also enables retention and rebuilding of scientific and technical competency which brings broader benefits.

As I see it, it's just not rational to think that China or anyone else will forever keep sending goods to the US or other Western countries effectively without payment. That game is up at some point and it looks to be not too far away.

 

[divs4ever]

I think the bit everyone's missing can be summed up with a shortened quote:



The way I'm seeing it, there's simply no option whatsoever for the US or indeed most Western countries to retain their current standard of living. That isn't an option no matter who's in government.

What those who argue for manufacturing are basically arguing for is a return to living standards circa 1967 with today's technology.

What those who argue against manufacturing are arguing for is, in practice, a return to living standards circa 1914 at best.

Given the two options, I'll take 1967 because however bad it is, it sure beats 1914. It also enables retention and rebuilding of scientific and technical competency which brings broader benefits.

As I see it, it's just not rational to think that China or anyone else will forever keep sending goods to the US or other Western countries effectively without payment. That game is up at some point and it looks to be not too far away.

i would settle for 1967 also

i already maintain a frugal lifestyle

but don't forget India , Indonesia and other non-G7 nations they will also catch up , but we ( the West ) will have to produce something of value to trade .. grain , minerals , maybe even niche manufacturing

 

[basilio]

Three points champ.

• The out of control left led Americans to vote for a loopy psychopath like Trump. Your mob and Trump are very similar.
• You need counselling, see a psychologist.
• Start a thread on Trump's psyche (and yours) and just post appropriate stock and economic content on this thread.

gg

Thanks for your concern champ.

No, I have no need for counselling on this issue. On the current evidence I think my assessment of where Trump is attempting to take the US is well on the money. In that context my analysis of how that will affect business activity and investment options is quite appropriate for this thread. It is about the economic ramifications of the Trump Presidency and one can certainly see how his authoritarian approach to Government is impacting on the economy as well as the businesses he supports, those he attempts to crush and the ones he creates to take in his bribes.

The really sad part GG is that you as well as many others on ASF seem to have little concern about the dismantling of the checks and balances in the USA political/legal system.

The way things are going the USA will join Russia and China (and Hungary and North Korea ect) in the medium term future as one party States which destroy independent media, crush criticism of the Government and have no opportunity for alternative political governments.

 

[divs4ever]

The really sad part GG is that you as well as many others on ASF seem to have little concern about the dismantling of the checks and balances in the USA political/legal system.

there are some left ( functioning ) ?

the Supreme Court seems to spend more time ducking issues than deciding on cases

several departments seem to have gone totally rogue , and before the last Trump election to boot

even the debt ceiling is just an excuse for political brinkmanship

remember BOTH Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were fully qualified lawyers

concerned , not me , i am investing in India and Indonesia ( to a lesser extent in South-East Asia generally )

sadly Australia looks to be following the US , UK and EU , on the road to self-mutilation