Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[moXJO]

Should be interest rate cuts and one last market hurrah before it all turns to sht.

Ill probably exit US for a while if I hit targets.

 

[Smurf1976]

It seems even they see his economic policies as somewhat broken, and the US Economy is beyond redemption.

The way I see it, once you’ve got a serious addiction there’s no avoiding a lot of pain.

All you get to choose is between withdrawal or death but either way it hurts.

 

[over9k]

New fed member just confirmed

 

[mullokintyre]

For those wanting a little more information. the new Fed member is Stephan Miran.


An insight into his thinking can be found at this Manhattan Institute article where he is a regular writer/speaker.
The one above revolves around some much needed reform of the so called independent US FED.
Mick

 

[moXJO]

New fed member just confirmed

Was it someone crazy?

Nvm just saw Mullos post

 

[TimeISmoney]

Looks like the US will be stuck in the revolving wheel of debt until it stops turning, they'll just keep on pumping the economy so that patriots can buy more fancy yachts, cars and mansions.

 

[moXJO]

Looks like the US will be stuck in the revolving wheel of debt until it stops turning, they'll just keep on pumping the economy so that patriots can buy more fancy yachts, cars and mansions.

All that matters is one last pump of the Stockmarket

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and an interesting story coming out about subprime lending....
.

..., you could be forgiven for missing the strange story of the collapse of Texas-based car dealer and lender Tricolor Holdings, which built up a substantial business by selling cars and loans to low-income and undocumented immigrants from America’s huge Hispanic community; it filed for bankruptcy last Wednesday (Chapter 7 - straight to liquidation)

That move came a day after one of its key lenders, the US regional bank Fifth Third, disclosed that it would write down the bulk of a $US200 million loan ($300 million) after it unearthed “fraudulent activity” by one of its corporate clients.

Tricolor’s other lenders include JPMorgan and Barclays, both of whom are reportedly owed a similar amount to Fifth Third.

Fifth Third has alleged Tricolour committed fraud, both via its audited accounts and the collateral it disclosed to borrow through the warehousing deals it relied on .

Tricolor's average loan of $US21,381 typically carried interest rates of more than 16 per cent, and data from a bond deal earlier this year showed 68 per cent of Tricolor’s borrowers did not have a credit score, while more than half did not have driving licences.

With corporate credit spreads at historical lows, investors hunting big returns have moved into the subprime car-loan market, which has more than doubled in size to $US80 billion in annual bond issuance in the past five years.

Neither the US subprime market nor Tricolor, which managed a portfolio of about $US1.4 billion in loans at the end of March, are big enough to cause the US economy any sort of systemic problems.
But subprime car borrowers are in the worst shape in generations: 6.5 per cent of borrowers are behind on their loan by 60 days or more, which is the highest level since data collection began in 1994.
.
Wall Street keeps hitting new highs

 

[mullokintyre]

and an interesting story coming out about subprime lending....
.

..., you could be forgiven for missing the strange story of the collapse of Texas-based car dealer and lender Tricolor Holdings, which built up a substantial business by selling cars and loans to low-income and undocumented immigrants from America’s huge Hispanic community; it filed for bankruptcy last Wednesday (Chapter 7 - straight to liquidation)

That move came a day after one of its key lenders, the US regional bank Fifth Third, disclosed that it would write down the bulk of a $US200 million loan ($300 million) after it unearthed “fraudulent activity” by one of its corporate clients.

Tricolor’s other lenders include JPMorgan and Barclays, both of whom are reportedly owed a similar amount to Fifth Third.

Fifth Third has alleged Tricolour committed fraud, both via its audited accounts and the collateral it disclosed to borrow through the warehousing deals it relied on .

Tricolor's average loan of $US21,381 typically carried interest rates of more than 16 per cent, and data from a bond deal earlier this year showed 68 per cent of Tricolor’s borrowers did not have a credit score, while more than half did not have driving licences.

With corporate credit spreads at historical lows, investors hunting big returns have moved into the subprime car-loan market, which has more than doubled in size to $US80 billion in annual bond issuance in the past five years.

Neither the US subprime market nor Tricolor, which managed a portfolio of about $US1.4 billion in loans at the end of March, are big enough to cause the US economy any sort of systemic problems.
But subprime car borrowers are in the worst shape in generations: 6.5 per cent of borrowers are behind on their loan by 60 days or more, which is the highest level since data collection began in 1994.
.
Wall Street keeps hitting new highs

some of which mightbe explained by the following stat from The Most Important News
One must always be alittle wary of these small sample statistical analysis, but there is an underlying trend. that is supported by the report from USS FED about the increasing credit card delinquincies.

Mick

 

[over9k]

Fed cuts exactly as expected. Powell states "significant downside risk" to the economy. "Revised numbers means jobs market no longer solid".

 

[over9k]

NZ gdp contracts 0.9% in Q2

Not looking good for the kiwi's

 

[Antirnator]

NZ gdp contracts 0.9% in Q2

Not looking good for the kiwi's

That is what happens to vassal states of the CCP.

 

[mullokintyre]

Canada also cut rates. overnight, and Norway is meeting tonight to decide if it also wants to cut rates.
Mick

 

[moXJO]

NZ gdp contracts 0.9% in Q2

Not looking good for the kiwi's

Actually its probably the lack of government spending. At some point you have to take your dose of medicine.

 

[qldfrog]

NZ gdp contracts 0.9% in Q2

Not looking good for the kiwi's

yes, my view of NZ North Island visited last month is for a country on the collapse, even worse than here

 

[over9k]

Actually its probably the lack of government spending. At some point you have to take your dose of medicine.

Ehhh kind of. Seen the migration rates of kiwi's to aus?

 

[sptrawler]

Ehhh kind of. Seen the migration rates of kiwi's to aus?

Yes as with Australia the only economic growth was house prices.

 

[divs4ever]

Ehhh kind of. Seen the migration rates of kiwi's to aus?

has been happening for decades ( my father migrated shortly after WW2 )

although to be fair we do seem to export a fair amount of criminals to NZ

so maybe that collapse isn't so certain , also the government tends to retain part ( about half ) of the profitable companies they monetized

companies like GNE , AIZ , MEZ , and MCY ,

 

[moXJO]

Ehhh kind of. Seen the migration rates of kiwi's to aus?

No jobs and expensive.... and boring.

I think a lot of things stopped in nz once government money dried up.
Australian jobs are basically government funded at this stage. Its hiding the productive gdp numbers.

The waste going on in government makes things appear better than they really are

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Divsie, @divs4ever , I thought we agreed you were allowed take threads way off topic on the FMG thread only.

gg