Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

The only country that could realistically reciprocate is China.

Fair point, I missed Canada. However realistically, only China could hold up.

For Canada it looks like US 25%, Canada responds 25%, US 35%, Canada crickets.

Regarding the Canadian PM, - Under Canada’s Conflict of Interest Act, Carney disclosed holdings in 567 entities, of which only three are Canadian: ... The rest are largely U.S.-headquartered firms, making up about 91 % of his portfolio

He's also very much a globalist, so whether he was waving the Canadian or globalist flag is a query.

This for me is the point.

From afar it looks like the USA is on the slide.

Debt is rising faster than GDP and neither Party has had a plan to arrest the slide.

The options at the last election were more of the same(Democrats), or try something different.

Congress has shown it is incapable of meaningfully decreasing spending so the only option is to grow their way out.

Whether this path will work or not is to be seen(there are headwinds aplenty), but at least it is an attempt get out of the rut they are in.

I really think it is the USA's last roll of the dice.

As expected.

 
Interesting times. Good article from UK economic commentator. Worth a read of you can get past the paywall. Have you heard about the Sparta project? I doubt it will be mentioned on Murdoch information channels.

Trump may try to get Russia a good deal but Europe will go the hard yards.

PArt of the article. There is a bit to it. I have left out a lot!

Europe has the military and economic means to handle this colonial war alone without further contaminating interference from Washington, and can alone raise the cost of continued aggression to such exorbitant levels that Putin sues for peace on tolerable terms.
Contrary to assiduous Kremlin propaganda, Russia’s military-Keynesian economy cannot sustain the war against Ukraine indefinitely. Its banks are being forced to fund much of the military spending, disguising the scale of the budget shortfall and guaranteeing a future banking crisis. The liquid component of the national wealth fund has shrunk to $US48 billion ($74.4 billion), rendering it almost unusable.
Oil and gas revenues dropped to $US9.8 billion in July, down 28 per cent from a year ago. Brent Crude has fallen to $US66 and is at the bottom of its three-year trading range. It is even more devalued in real terms. Urals Novorossiysk crude is trading at a further discount of $US12 a barrel. Hard-nosed Asian buyers know that Russia is a distressed seller.
It is Europe that is becoming the new arsenal of democracy, though few yet realise it.
The International Energy Agency says global oil markets face a record glut next year. Analysts are starting to talk of $US40 unless the world economy rebounds soon.

Europe and Britain have unilaterally tightened their squeeze on Russia’s shadow fleet and the financial logistics that make this trade possible. India is no longer able to operate so easily as a giant refining hub for Russian oil, some of it re-exported back to Europe. Data from Kpler showed that Russian shipments to India have collapsed to 400,000 barrels a day so far in August from a monthly pace of 1.8 million before the new curbs.

 
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What happened to magna?

Coca-Cola isn’t in financial trouble. Sales are up. Pricing strategies are working. Even Costco is switching over to Coke products in its food courts. But that’s part of what makes this moment harder to digest: the layoffs aren’t a response to collapsing revenue. They’re about efficiency. Cutting complexity. Doing more with less.

Automation plays a role, as always. So do tariffs—particularly on aluminum, which has pushed up the cost of cans. These aren’t short-term fluctuations, either. The underlying message from Coke is clear: the structure of the business is changing, and facilities that don’t fit the model are being phased out, even if they’ve been running for decades.
 
What happened to magna?

Coca-Cola isn’t in financial trouble. Sales are up. Pricing strategies are working. Even Costco is switching over to Coke products in its food courts. But that’s part of what makes this moment harder to digest: the layoffs aren’t a response to collapsing revenue. They’re about efficiency. Cutting complexity. Doing more with less.

Automation plays a role, as always. So do tariffs—particularly on aluminum, which has pushed up the cost of cans. These aren’t short-term fluctuations, either. The underlying message from Coke is clear: the structure of the business is changing, and facilities that don’t fit the model are being phased out, even if they’ve been running for decades.
That's drawing a long bow, pinning plant closures on Aluminium tariffs that were put in place only 3 months before this article.

Just looking at the larger 2 closures, Florida Dunedin plant was scheduled to close 31/5/24 and American Canyon closure first mention 2022.

All part of an ongoing restructure and in motion well before tariffs.
They've removed a lot of US products from their shelves;

Everything but olive branches it would seem. :)
 
That's drawing a long bow, pinning plant closures on Aluminium tariffs that were put in place only 3 months before this article.

Just looking at the larger 2 closures, Florida Dunedin plant was scheduled to close 31/5/24 and American Canyon closure first mention 2022.

All part of an ongoing restructure and in motion well before tariffs.
The World is changing, and The Trumpet's America is starting to find out also.
 

900 jobs to go at Coca Cola in the US. Main reason is automation which is no surprise, more effeciency and less labour costs and higher tariffs on aluminium.

Tariffs on aluminium were hiked to 50% compliments of Trump and co. Automation was always going to kill jobs whether it was Harris or Trump in the White House.
 
That's drawing a long bow, pinning plant closures on Aluminium tariffs that were put in place only 3 months before this article.

Just looking at the larger 2 closures, Florida Dunedin plant was scheduled to close 31/5/24 and American Canyon closure first mention 2022.

All part of an ongoing restructure and in motion well before tariffs.
The aluminium tariffs started in 2018, but this is what happens when you cause instability in markets. The second lot was meant to start in March. Companies don't want to get caught with their pants down and move before they do come in.
 
The aluminium tariffs started in 2018, but this is what happens when you cause instability in markets. The second lot was meant to start in March. Companies don't want to get caught with their pants down and move before they do come in.
also aluminum production involves significant energy costs/usage ( to add to any other rising costs )

aluminum production is facing challenges in many countries ,
 
There's an interesting indicator with this chart , below. The red line, which sums up the ISM survey for manufacturing and non-manufacturing prices paid, tends to lead PPI final demand inflation (the blue line) by about six months. The chart shifts the red line six months forward, showing where PPI inflation “should” go in the future. If accurate, it means inflation will keep rising at least until year-end.

Chart_1_20250823-TFTF.png
Source: Yardeni Research

... but not the only contribution to Powell's input wrangle
 
The underlying message from Coke is clear: the structure of the business is changing, and facilities that don’t fit the model are being phased out, even if they’ve been running for decades.
California and Massachusetts are both relatively high energy cost states so that may also have had some influence.

For industrial electricity pricing as of May 2025, California and Massachusetts were the second and third most expensive among the lower 48 states.

Florida's a lot cheaper however so not likely to be a factor there.

Average industrial price, May 2025:

California = 20.17c/kwh
Massachusetts = 18.94c/kWh
Florida = 8.72c/kWh
US Average (includes Alaska and Hawaii) = 8.30c/kWh

:2twocents
 
the structure of the business is changing
See my previous posts about how big decisions like factory closures (or building more) aren't made without the company being damn sure of what the future is going to bring.

We aren't talking about some single-election flash in the pan type of thing here guys.
 
big decisions like factory closures (or building more) aren't made without the company being damn sure of what the future is going to bring.
They're also very often made long before they're publicly announced.

Workers often work it out simply by observing what's going on. If nothing's being upgraded, that's a very visible sign that the writing's on the wall. Even clearer is if maintenance is cut or the operations are simplified with bits and pieces shut down, outsourced, etc.

If it looks run down, is run down, and the workforce headcount is in decline then odds are there's an announcement coming. Huge alarm bell the end is nigh if management starts talking about work / life balance and the need to get leave balances down. Another is if it's sold to some tinpot company nobody's ever heard of with a deal to buy back the production.

We've had examples of that in Australia where it took 15 - 20 years to actually shut the place after the decision was really made. In the meantime, they were just extracting residual value from equipment and whittling the workforce down to minimise the cost of redundancies. Those paying attention knew the game was over long before anything was said officially. :2twocents
 
It may well be an interesting article, but we will never find out as its paywalled.
I refuse to subscribe to another website to read it.
If its that interesting, do a cut and paste.
Mick
I used a VPN and read it without subscribing, but only one of read.

I thought everyone would get one read.
 
Oh yeah. Not unique to factories in the slightest either.

Entire cities or even states (or even countries) come to mind.
Yes the whole of Australia comes to mind, NDIS, stopping gas and oil exploration, nickel mining closed, coal mining closed and live livestock export on the hook.
Our masters are closing down squeezing the last drops from industry, remaining productive workforce and now selling the remaining stranding assets..sorry bringing fairness by taxing acquired wealth and bloody boomers..
So lucky we do not have Trump as leader...
 
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