Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

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moXJO said:
I hope so. I like it when people panic.

Although I'm always reminded of that quote:
'When the time comes to buy, you won't want to'.
Click to expand...
I've done staggered buy orders in increments of 15.

525, 510, 495, 480, 465, 450. Amounts increasing each time to keep my average buy price chasing the actual market price.
 
Interesting time ...
More than a Trump thread, the usual is it the big crash we needed to have, and the questions it always raises
Starting heavy in PM and cash at 2/3..
The very personal dilemma we probably all have
1) what do you do with the stocks you already have, join the panic and get out because -10% is better than -20%
After all, if you do not buy the market yet, you should sell pure logic..
2) when do you jump in and consider the bargains..is there enough blood in the street yet.. "Dad, are we there yet?" as psyche can make you wait for more, and not get anything..my covid failure.
3) a meeting with your accountant on Monday asking you to trigger capital gain this FY...
But this 60% cash war chest is here to get invested for such circumstances.
We will all have busy minds in the following weeks
I like the staggered entry in the Spy approach from @over9k BTW.
A nice way to put rationality in a decision 👍
 
over9k said:
Musing:

The rest of the world are not going to win this "trade war". In fact, every time trump does something and the idiots try to fire a responding salvo, he just hits them with a bigger one.

Markets obviously tank every time someone (on either side) announces something new which means that markets are only going to stop dropping once everybody stop taking shots at each other.

Now the fact is that the rest of the world are not going to win this. They're not. The question then becomes at what point are they going to admit defeat, because once they do they will stop imposing their own tariffs etc and markets will therefore stop dropping.

And that is the point at which we buy.
Click to expand...

Hard disagree.

The only reason the US is in its current position of financial approach is because the rest of the world agreed to make USDs the global reserve currency.

This is there perfect time for a crash as politics and economics are now starting to collide. This is no longer a cost balancing act that markets need to reprice. Relationships with the US are being drastically, and it seems in some cases irrevocably, reset.
People, and therefore politicians, are not interested in placating what they perceived to be unjust policies coming out of the US. This is particularly telling in Canada, Europe and even Australia, with "Tumpist" politicians losing support.

Nationalism is returning, and that doesn't involve the US.
So why would you need to maintain investments in the US when political will is providing economic opportunity for domestic investments?
We're already seeing this - US companies are already seeing the effect of 'Buy Canadian', the USD, bonds and markets are falling.
Instead, we're seeing countries and blocs invest in their own economies. The best example is the remilitarisation of the EU.

I think what we're unfortunately seeing is the breakdown of globalisation. Global trade will become more expensive unless ex-USA nations are willing to come together and form their own independent trading networks - BRICS anyone?

As for the US debt - either these tarrifs are being used to set-up a future debt forgiveness deal or, as the US has done many times in the past, they will default and declare it an economic imperative for US supremacy.
 
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from Playboy magazine in 1990, when Trump was 43.

Asked how he felt about Japan’s economic pre-eminence, Trump answered: “Japan gets almost 70 per cent of its oil from the Persian Gulf, relies on ships led back home by our destroyers, battleships, helicopters, frogmen.

“Then the Japanese sail home, where they give the oil to fuel their factories so that they can knock the hell out of General Motors, Chrysler and Ford. Their openly screwing us is a disgrace. Why aren’t they paying us? The Japanese cajole us, they bow to us, they tell us how great we are, and then they pick our pockets. We’re losing hundreds of billions of dollars a year while they laugh at our stupidity."
 
Dona Ferentes said:
from Playboy magazine in 1990, when Trump was 43.

Asked how he felt about Japan’s economic pre-eminence, Trump answered: “Japan gets almost 70 per cent of its oil from the Persian Gulf, relies on ships led back home by our destroyers, battleships, helicopters, frogmen.

“Then the Japanese sail home, where they give the oil to fuel their factories so that they can knock the hell out of General Motors, Chrysler and Ford. Their openly screwing us is a disgrace. Why aren’t they paying us? The Japanese cajole us, they bow to us, they tell us how great we are, and then they pick our pockets. We’re losing hundreds of billions of dollars a year while they laugh at our stupidity."
Click to expand...
Hence the rest of the world's military buildout now.

The yanks are simply no longer footing everyone else's bills. They no longer need the oil themselves which means that the rest of the world can no longer piggyback off their security provision.

Hence tariffs, nato defunding, you can all now worry about yourselves.
 
waterbottle said:
Hard disagree.

The only reason the US is in its current position of financial approach is because the rest of the world agreed to make USDs the global reserve currency.

This is there perfect time for a crash as politics and economics are now starting to collide. This is no longer a cost balancing act that markets need to reprice. Relationships with the US are being drastically, and it seems in some cases irrevocably, reset.
People, and therefore politicians, are not interested in placating what they perceived to be unjust policies coming out of the US. This is particularly telling in Canada, Europe and even Australia, with "Tumpist" politicians losing support.

Nationalism is returning, and that doesn't involve the US.
So why would you need to maintain investments in the US when political will is providing economic opportunity for domestic investments?
We're already seeing this - US companies are already seeing the effect of 'Buy Canadian', the USD, bonds and markets are falling.
Instead, we're seeing countries and blocs invest in their own economies. The best example is the remilitarisation of the EU.

I think what we're unfortunately seeing is the breakdown of globalisation. Global trade will become more expensive unless ex-USA nations are willing to come together and form their own independent trading networks - BRICS anyone?

As for the US debt - either these tarrifs are being used to set-up a future debt forgiveness deal or, as the US has done many times in the past, they will default and declare it an economic imperative for US supremacy.
Click to expand...
The end and most likely replacement of the Bretton woods system
 
Knobby22 said:
The tariffs will hurt the US more than anybody. Look what happened to soybeans last time he was in.

www.theage.com.au

Brexit for the US: Trump’s tariffs are the sign of a nation in decline

Trump is famously unpredictable, but his unifying theme is utterly consistent: the retrieval of national power. It is to make America great again.
www.theage.com.au www.theage.com.au
Click to expand...
More? One point we will disagree.
Is it better to have cheap cars and be unemployed or a barista, or working in a car factory paying off an expensive car you built?
Short term, medium term, long term?
If the US can not make it with tariffs, it will just be the nail on the coffin already there.
->What do they have to loose?
Serious, they can not push the can further forever, at least this is orderly..
We all knew about the plan coming
And better than a hot war is my view which is the last escape route
Will this hurt the world economy yes, especially places like the EU and Australia where globalisation is our only way to survive:
Selling our assets overseas,: debt, mining, agriculture and buying life needs overseas: everything
Even before Trump, India and China, the EU let alone other smaller countries had huge tariff or border closures.
Noone was even noticing it seems...
It is not the end of the world but it is the end of globalisation yes
 
qldfrog said:
More? One point we will disagree.
Is it better to have cheap cars and be unemployed or a barista, or working in a car factory paying off an expensive car you built?
Short term, medium term, long term?
If the US can not make it with tariffs, it will just be the nail on the coffin already there.
->What do they have to loose?
Serious, they can not push the can further forever, at least this is orderly..
We all knew about the plan coming
And better than a hot war is my view which is the last escape route
Will this hurt the world economy yes, especially places like the EU and Australia where globalisation is our only way to survive:
Selling our assets overseas,: debt, mining, agriculture and buying life needs overseas: everything
Even before Trump, India and China, the EU let alone other smaller countries had huge tariff or border closures.
Noone was even noticing it seems...
It is not the end of the world but it is the end of globalisation yes
Click to expand...
There is good and bad in that, but I've never trusted the globalists so I'm leaving into the good.
 
qldfrog said:
More? One point we will disagree.
Is it better to have cheap cars and be unemployed or a barista, or working in a car factory paying off an expensive car you built?
Short term, medium term, long term?
If the US can not make it with tariffs, it will just be the nail on the coffin already there.
->What do they have to loose?
Serious, they can not push the can further forever, at least this is orderly..
We all knew about the plan coming
And better than a hot war is my view which is the last escape route
Will this hurt the world economy yes, especially places like the EU and Australia where globalisation is our only way to survive:
Selling our assets overseas,: debt, mining, agriculture and buying life needs overseas: everything
Even before Trump, India and China, the EU let alone other smaller countries had huge tariff or border closures.
Noone was even noticing it seems...
It is not the end of the world but it is the end of globalisation yes
Click to expand...
Targeted tariffs with treaties.

They are making sure they lose.

(Example: Tesla - Premium car company now subject to counter tariffs and the USA backlash from the attack on the other countries. Game over for them when they were winning.)

(And sure Musk hasn't helped by getting involved in foreign elections).
 
over9k said:
I think it's more than a possibility, I think it's more likely than not.

They'll start with quota's (you wanted 10m barrels a day before, now you only get 9) and just keep cutting the supply more and more until whoever is on the other side gives them what they want.

There is a lot more soft power the yanks can wield yet. Tariffs are just the tip of the iceberg. This is what everyone else just aren't getting. The yanks are holding all the cards here. All of them.

But...

Tariffs raise tax revenue. Export restrictions don't. In fact, they do the opposite. I'm still of the opinion that there's much more to this than just the whole "the rest of the world's been ripping us off for decades" narrative they're spinning, I mean ostensibly yeah the rest of the world can start pulling its own weight (see: nato defunding) but there's also the U.S fiscal position (national debt) that they're just soooo conspicuously quiet about, ya know?

Export restrictions don't help there and I think that balancing the budget is actually a huge part of the reason they're defunding nato, imposing tariffs etc but they just can't say it.

The general public must be given a reason for tax increases they will actually accept and simple fiscal responsibility isn't one of them. I'm of the very firm opinion that most of what we're seeing is essentially just window dressing. That's not to say that what they're saying isn't correct, but I'm very skeptical that it's actually the primary reason for all of this.


The silence surrounding the U.S fiscal position and what the tariff revenue will do for it is deeply suspicious. In fact it's a classic tell that they're not drawing any attention to it, if you know what I mean ;)
Click to expand...
maybe not as much since 2020 , for instance the US doesn't have much heavy crude production ( used for diesel and bitumen ) a lot of that comes from Canada and Venezuela , China and India process a huge amount of pharmaceutical ingredients

and NATO has a problem of a lot of their equipment is old an out-dated ( or burning in the fields of Ukraine )
 
"Australia Imports from United States was US$34.72 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Australia Imports from United States - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2025. "

Screenshot_20250404-092916.pngScreenshot_20250404-092951.png

Imports from the US have doubled since 2021 (the last bar in graph is 2024).
Simple supply demand rules would suggest that supply routes will change and balance out again given time.
The US will be boycotted where possible or necessary by globalisation, the desire to buy cheaper is inherently built in and well established.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out,
I'm thinking that the winners of this at the moment are countries like Germany, Japan, China, India etc, and South East Asia in particular, as their manufacturing base has increased exponentially in the last few years.

I've said this before, how fast is the US going to be able to ramp up their own manufacturing again?

Australia Imports from United States - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1988-2024 Historical

Australia Imports from United States was US$34.72 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Australia Imports from United States - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on August of 2025.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
 
frugal.rock said:
"Australia Imports from United States was US$34.72 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Australia Imports from United States - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2025. "

View attachment 196781View attachment 196782

Imports from the US have doubled since 2021 (the last bar in graph is 2024).
Simple supply demand rules would suggest that supply routes will change and balance out again given time.
The US will be boycotted where possible or necessary by globalisation, the desire to buy cheaper is inherently built in and well established.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out,
I'm thinking that the winners of this at the moment are countries like Germany, Japan, China, India etc, and South East Asia in particular, as their manufacturing base has increased exponentially in the last few years.

I've said this before, how fast is the US going to be able to ramp up their own manufacturing again?

Australia Imports from United States - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1988-2024 Historical

Australia Imports from United States was US$34.72 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Australia Imports from United States - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on August of 2025.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
Click to expand...
No one outside of the US is going to buy a plastic bucket from the US that costs $8 because of the tariffs and labour costs, when they can buy a Chinese one for $5. Most of their raw materials come from outside of the US, so whatever they make is going to cost them more and it multiplies by every time they buy raw materials that have tariffs on them.

I want to see the general Chevy diesel truck driving American work at the same rate as people from a third world country.:D

The products that were consumed by the US will be directed at other countries, most likely at a cheaper rate.
 
frugal.rock said:
"Australia Imports from United States was US$34.72 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Australia Imports from United States - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2025. "

View attachment 196781View attachment 196782

Imports from the US have doubled since 2021 (the last bar in graph is 2024).
Simple supply demand rules would suggest that supply routes will change and balance out again given time.
The US will be boycotted where possible or necessary by globalisation, the desire to buy cheaper is inherently built in and well established.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out,
I'm thinking that the winners of this at the moment are countries like Germany, Japan, China, India etc, and South East Asia in particular, as their manufacturing base has increased exponentially in the last few years.

I've said this before, how fast is the US going to be able to ramp up their own manufacturing again?

Australia Imports from United States - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1988-2024 Historical

Australia Imports from United States was US$34.72 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Australia Imports from United States - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on August of 2025.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
Click to expand...
well since they don't have the worker-base of India or China ... not soon enough , then you have the crumbling bridges and rail-lines

Australia has to opportunity to ride some coat-tails here but probably won't
 

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