Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Knobby22]

that Tweet about April 3rd being margin call day seemed to have a whiff of truth to that

but how much truth ?

let's watch to see if the stock market cash went into bonds , gold or something else ( or is just sitting on the sidelines waiting for reinvestment )

If anyone suffers from margin calls they must be suffering from severe TDS. Trump told us what he was going to do.

 

[Sean K]

If anyone suffers from margin calls they must be suffering from severe TDS. Trump told us what he was going to do.

He did. I'm surprised that it wasn't more baked in.

 

[over9k]

On china?
Too many black market ship to ship transfers from Iran, Russia, Venezuela etc. It would hurt them though

No that's what the americans did to the japs before pearl harbour in ww2

 

[moXJO]

No that's what the americans did to the japs before pearl harbour in ww2

Ahhh
Considering there's a bit of an energy war going on, think it's a possibility?

 

[DannyB0000]

Some people thought Trump wasn't serious with tariffs, he is all bluster but it turns out he wasn't bluffing. Also Trump doesn't like to see the Stockmarket crashing, there's a Trump put to the market according to Tom Lee but that assumption seems to be wrong and I thought that to.

Still holding about 60% cash through my super fund

 

[divs4ever]

If anyone suffers from margin calls they must be suffering from severe TDS. Trump told us what he was going to do.

that won't stop some , some are inherently greedy ( or desperate ) and some believe Trump is all bluster and rude noises .

i never liked margin loans and yet am aware some of the biggest traders go eye-deep in them

look at how that GameStop saga worked out

somebody spotted 140% of the float was short , and some did everything they could to maintain ( or double and triple down ) their position , and they were professionals

 

[DannyB0000]

Looks like a lot blood and gore tomorrow with markets. Everything must be liquidated including oil and gold. Oil currently down nearly 5% and profit taking with Gold, Crypto is tanking as well, nowhere to hide.

Hope some you are holding cash.

 

[divs4ever]

Looks like a lot blood and gore tomorrow with markets. Everything must be liquidated including oil and gold. Oil currently down nearly 5% and profit taking with Gold, Crypto is tanking as well, nowhere to hide.

Hope some you are holding cash.

never enough in my case , but have some and some on the way if this chaos last several weeks

but OK so it looks like ( so far ) a GFC-type liquidity squeeze , i understand what happened there ( and i don't need US dollars to settle bills )

my only oil target is still about 15% above my price , gold .. nothing on my immediate buy list

it MIGHT be another day of missed targets for me tomorrow

but good luck everyone else

 

[over9k]

Ahhh
Considering there's a bit of an energy war going on, think it's a possibility?

I think it's more than a possibility, I think it's more likely than not.

They'll start with quota's (you wanted 10m barrels a day before, now you only get 9) and just keep cutting the supply more and more until whoever is on the other side gives them what they want.

There is a lot more soft power the yanks can wield yet. Tariffs are just the tip of the iceberg. This is what everyone else just aren't getting. The yanks are holding all the cards here. All of them.

But...

Tariffs raise tax revenue. Export restrictions don't. In fact, they do the opposite. I'm still of the opinion that there's much more to this than just the whole "the rest of the world's been ripping us off for decades" narrative they're spinning, I mean ostensibly yeah the rest of the world can start pulling its own weight (see: nato defunding) but there's also the U.S fiscal position (national debt) that they're just soooo conspicuously quiet about, ya know?

Export restrictions don't help there and I think that balancing the budget is actually a huge part of the reason they're defunding nato, imposing tariffs etc but they just can't say it.

The general public must be given a reason for tax increases they will actually accept and simple fiscal responsibility isn't one of them. I'm of the very firm opinion that most of what we're seeing is essentially just window dressing. That's not to say that what they're saying isn't correct, but I'm very skeptical that it's actually the primary reason for all of this.


The silence surrounding the U.S fiscal position and what the tariff revenue will do for it is deeply suspicious. In fact it's a classic tell that they're not drawing any attention to it, if you know what I mean

 

[over9k]

Musing:

The rest of the world are not going to win this "trade war". In fact, every time trump does something and the idiots try to fire a responding salvo, he just hits them with a bigger one.

Markets obviously tank every time someone (on either side) announces something new which means that markets are only going to stop dropping once everybody stop taking shots at each other.

Now the fact is that the rest of the world are not going to win this. They're not. The question then becomes at what point are they going to admit defeat, because once they do they will stop imposing their own tariffs etc and markets will therefore stop dropping.

And that is the point at which we buy.

 

[over9k]

And to continue my musing from the previous post, the stupidity/incompetence of our political leaders really cannot be over stated, so I think there's plenty more of this BS to go yet.

I'll make another post when my spidey sense says we're finally past it because that sure isn't now.

 

[over9k]

Another post:

Quantitative trading is, comically, all too often a game of self fulfilling prophecies. If the maths says that a support level or mean reversion or whatever is at point X, people will buy at point X, and thus that level will become the price floor.

Markets have, for a solid year or so, been running way above trend:



Returning to trend is what's known in the business as a "mean reversion".

Mean reversions happen all the time (both from the top and the bottom side), you can see several of them just in the screencap I've placed above.

Now as we can see, a mean reversion, assuming it happens over the time it looks like it will, is at about the 525 mark. Assuming we get a mean reversion (and we're due for one) the maths tells us that our buy point for spy is at 525.

However, a reversion to the mean is just one factor here. We also need to consider another concept - volatility.

Volatility refers to how much markets divert from the trend. A cursory glance at markets over the past few years shows us that markets have peaked and bottomed at about 15% plus or minus from where they should have been.

Ergo, if we take a 525 trend line and subtract 15% from it, the maths tells us that the bottom is at about the 450 mark.

However...

As we can see, markets don't always drop below trend after a period above it or vice-versa. As we can see at the beginning of our graph back to 2017, they may spend considerable time below trend before bouncing up to it and then dipping back down again. Conversely, they may spend considerable time above it before reverting to trend and then rebounding again.

Hence the question is, what are they going to do this time? Are they going to return to trend and bounce or are they going to dip below it to the same percentage (15%) they ran above it?

This is a much more difficult question to answer. As I made a very very very deliberate point of emphasising (on account of the fact that this fact cannot be overstated) in this guide I wrote a while back: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...alysis-chart-reading-101-for-beginners.36157/

The absolute golden rule of quantitative trading is that quantitative trading only works under normal market conditions.


And markets right now are anything but normal.

 

[over9k]

So, the point of everything I wrote above is that a 525 buy on a mean reversion is about the only thing I can say with any kind of real confidence. Trying to pick a bottom after that point becomes almost pure gambling. Just because 15% below trend has been the bottom previously doesn't mean we'll actually make it to that point this time, it just means that the maths says we're unlikely to go any lower than that.

So yeah. A series of buy orders starting at 525 and bottoming at 450 looks to be the play here. Even if markets bottomed at, say, 500, and you ended up remaining 60% cash I wouldn't be complaining considering the uncertainty we're trying to navigate now.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Musing:

The rest of the world are not going to win this "trade war". In fact, every time trump does something and the idiots try to fire a responding salvo, he just hits them with a bigger one.

Markets obviously tank every time someone (on either side) announces something new which means that markets are only going to stop dropping once everybody stop taking shots at each other.

Now the fact is that the rest of the world are not going to win this. They're not. The question then becomes at what point are they going to admit defeat, because once they do they will stop imposing their own tariffs etc and markets will therefore stop dropping.

And that is the point at which we buy.

I don't know about that, the rest of the world can't be bankrupted by a trillion-dollar debt.

It's easy to starve them off with minerals also .

China blocks companies from investing in US: Bloomberg​

The news: China’s top economic planning agency has begun restricting local companies from investing in the US as trade tensions between the two nations continue to escalate.

The context: According to sources cited by Bloomberg, several branches of the National Development and Reform Commission have been told to pause registration and approvals for Chinese firms hoping to invest in the US.

The move may be intended to give Beijing more leverage during trade negotiations with the US.
There is no indication that existing investments by Chinese corporates in the US and elsewhere, nor that purchasing financial products like US treasuries, would be affected. Sources did not state how long the pause is set to last.
The report comes hours before the Trump administration is set to unveil its ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, which are expected to see the US impose sweeping tariffs on trade partners, likely to include China.
China’s Ministry of Commerce showed that outbound investments to the US fell 5.2% in 2023, despite increasing investment to all other countries by 8.7%.

 

[over9k]

And as if on cue:



"During the last trade war of 2018 and 2019 equities fell to the bottom of their historical band"


So Jay Woods is thinking the exact same thing I am

 

[moXJO]

I agree that there is something bigger at play here. You can see small snippets of something going on across the world. There's so many layers it's hard to get to the truth of it.

For now its just a hard reset.

 

[over9k]

For anyone wondering, a "historical band" refers to a stock (or markets) trading within what's called a channel.

Graphically, it looks like this:



So the real wildcard is whether we're going to hit the bottom of the channel or not. That's what everyone are now asking themselves.

 

[moXJO]

For anyone wondering, a "historical band" refers to a stock (or markets) trading within what's called a channel.

Graphically, it looks like this:

View attachment 196766

So the real wildcard is whether we're going to hit the bottom of the channel or not. That's what everyone are now asking themselves.

I hope so. I like it when people panic.

Although I'm always reminded of that quote:
'When the time comes to buy, you won't want to'.

 

[DannyB0000]

I hope so. I like it when people panic.

Although I'm always reminded of that quote:
'When the time comes to buy, you won't want to'

I'm sure Buffett is starting to salivate with his $325 Billion war chest.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, we're closing in on the biggest 1-day drop since the covid dump of march 2020.