Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[wayneL]

Funniest comment on FinTwit this morning:

April 2 - Liberation Day
April 3 - Margin call day

 

[divs4ever]

Funniest comment on FinTwit this morning:

April 2 - Liberation Day
April 3 - Margin call day

some of the best comedy is the truth wrapped up in a SMILE ( or cheeky grin )

 

[divs4ever]

I suppose Trump thought the tariffs seemed to be a good idea at the time. The market appears to disagree at the moment.

i would argue better than doing nothing

but UGLY was coming fast , even if nothing was said or done

much like popping the boil today ( rather than next week )

there was a better alternative .. REALLY slash spending and borrowing .. but the howls of pain would have been deafening

 

[Knobby22]

i would argue better than doing nothing

but UGLY was coming fast , even if nothing was said or done

much like popping the boil today ( rather than next week )

there was a better alternative .. REALLY slash spending and borrowing .. but the howls of pain would have been deafening

Just didn't have to lower taxes for the top end. The deficit is still going to double.
The tariff income is going to hardly hit the sides.

 

[over9k]

China is screwed with these tariffs, like screwed screwed. Even if they devalue their dollar I don't seem them doing well.
I suppose they can mark up goods for now, offshore, drop their tariffs. All of those still come with problems.

Didn't the US do something similar to Japan just before ww2?

Oil embargo

 

[divs4ever]

Just didn't have to lower taxes for the top end. The deficit is still going to double.
The tariff income is going to hardly hit the sides.

the very , very top earners normally use trusts , foundations and other structures

so 'the top end tax' is a little misleading , yes they are earning big bucks but also putting in the hours and taking the risks and many are only upper middle-class

now MAYBE those top earners will earn/invest more ( and maybe not )

the deficit is very likely to enlarge , but will that extra debt be used productively ( still to be answered )

any improvement in government income will reduce the need for extra borrowing

Trump's solution will NOT be pain free , but it MIGHT reduce the cumulative pain experienced mid-term ( depending on how many non-government jobs are created )

 

[Knobby22]

the very , very top earners normally use trusts , foundations and other structures

so 'the top end tax' is a little misleading , yes they are earning big bucks but also putting in the hours and taking the risks and many are only upper middle-class

now MAYBE those top earners will earn/invest more ( and maybe not )

the deficit is very likely to enlarge , but will that extra debt be used productively ( still to be answered )

any improvement in government income will reduce the need for extra borrowing

Trump's solution will NOT be pain free , but it MIGHT reduce the cumulative pain experienced mid-term ( depending on how many non-government jobs are created )

We shall see.
I am literally betting he is crushing the lower and middle class which will bring a recession. This will further reduce the tax take.
The Speculator in the UK , hardly a left wing magazine, called it the biggest US tax rise in history with no offsets for most.

The money is going to the government, it is a (regressive) tax on the people.

 

[divs4ever]

We shall see.
I am literally betting he is crushing the lower and middle class which will bring a recession. This will further reduce the tax take.
The Speculator in the UK , hardly a left wing magazine, called it the biggest US tax rise in history with no offsets for most.

The money is going to the government, it is a (regressive) tax on the people.

the lower and normal middle-class always have a target painted on their forehead , and yes this class will reduce spending, consuming and reduce the various taxes collected ( sales, excise etc etc )

i would argue there has been a recession ( by any historic definition ) in progress for years , it has just been based on fudged figures and a new definition

the give-away is the ballooning US debt .. taxes just aren't keeping up with Government expenditure

modern monetary theory only works IF the forward borrowing is put into profitable productive projects .. and so far it mostly ISN'T

 

[Dona Ferentes]

As the rest of Australia was dealt a 10 per cent tariff from Donald Trump this morning, Norfolk Island received 29 per cent.

The White House offered no explanation for the disparity

 

[Dona Ferentes]

As the rest of Australia was dealt a 10 per cent tariff from Donald Trump this morning, Norfolk Island received 29 per cent.

The White House offered no explanation for the disparity

actually, I see this as a positive, as Norfolk Island has different tax status than the mainland ( minor, but there nevertheless)

Norfolk Island tax and super | Australian Taxation Office

How Australia's tax and superannuation laws apply for Norfolk Island residents and businesses.

www.ato.gov.au

If some Washington file clerk knows that, then maybe some of the other places get examined ... British Virgin Islands, Caymans, etc etc

 

[TimeISmoney]

 

[over9k]

View attachment 196726

It's almost as if he's trying to tell the rest of the world something...

 

[wayneL]

View attachment 196726

Tariffing uninhabited islands by name prevents tarriffed nations from pulling a fast one and trying to say goods are "from" the uninhabited island themselves, for example the fisheries.

This sort of silly mockery is typical of first order thinking, never going past the first, paper thin, intellectual layer.

...asking why could this be and digging just a few, very short millimetres further.

 

[divs4ever]

i hope the penguins impose retaliatory sanctions ( and eat more nearby fish depriving the US bases of fresh food )

 

[eskys]

Monkeys have no attention to details...so long as there's nuts to be had, let's dive in!

 

[moXJO]

am looking for small nibbles and selected stocks but have missed all targets so far

maybe later today if there is a second wave down

i prefer small buys into a down trend ( and sells into the up trend )

Hopefully I'll get all the stocks at the prices I want.
It's weird that Trump even said "it will get worse before it gets better and market pundits act surprised.
Might be a blackswan curve ball somewhere in here as well.

 

[divs4ever]

Hopefully I'll get all the stocks at the prices I want.
It's weird that Trump even said "it will get worse before it gets better and market pundits act surprised.
Might be a blackswan curve ball somewhere in here as well.

more likely a well-hidden silver-lining if you weren't heavily leveraged

but further down tomorrow .. i have a plan for that ( and a little cash as well )

 

[moXJO]

Oil embargo

On china?
Too many black market ship to ship transfers from Iran, Russia, Venezuela etc. It would hurt them though

 

[TimeISmoney]

Hopefully I'll get all the stocks at the prices I want.
It's weird that Trump even said "it will get worse before it gets better and market pundits act surprised.
Might be a blackswan curve ball somewhere in here as well.

Still a lot more money to get sucked out of the markets yet, me thinks.

I can't see many quarterlies showing steady growth for quite a while.

 

[divs4ever]

Still a lot more money to get sucked out of the markets yet, me thinks.

I can't see many quarterlies showing steady growth for quite a while.

that Tweet about April 3rd being margin call day seemed to have a whiff of truth to that

but how much truth ?

let's watch to see if the stock market cash went into bonds , gold or something else ( or is just sitting on the sidelines waiting for reinvestment )