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Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

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moXJO said:
I have heard comments that the era of AI and large multinationals may usher in a new era of serfdom.
Looking at the amount of homeless it might have some weight.
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The USA will go into a massive recession from these policies combined with high inflation by the start of next year.

The main part of the tariffs only started last week. It's going to be bad. the economy has already slowed to 1.1%.

Next year stagflation will hit with textbook delay.

Some examples; shoes will cost 40% more. Clothing 38% more.
Firstly it takes 5 to 10 years to get the industrial capacity to manufacture them within the USA, people have to buy them.

The second problem is that allies have been hit harder than enemies, Canada, Brazil, Switzerland etc. they won't buy USA products.
India etc. now have the USA as an enemy and will also not buy their products. The Brics will get stronger.

Finally the third problem is the input costs into America, steel, aluminium etc. There is no way they can replace these internally. It takes many years to build smelters.
So, for example, car prices will rise which will stop export sales to overseas markets.

This is going to be bad for the USA. We shouldn't get schadenfreude though as it is bound to effect the world economies.

(Of course Trump might backflip again when he sees it going to hell.)
 
This is working on old economic models.
Right now its a war of first movers on AI and robotics. Next 10 years everything is different. I feel everyone is still thinking its the early 2000s and trying to apply old rules. Its always hard trying to pick what happens at these turning points.

Once these things start rolling out its the initial cost of the robot and possibly some form of subscription. Either way costs are going to reduce drastically for manufacturing. You could get an army of these things working 24/7

You want to close off to outside countries now imo and start bringing back industry that makes sense locally. To many tech guys jumping on board the Trump train for these types of plans not to have been hashed out.
 
I told ya's the Trump tariffs wouldn't work, if first world countries don't decouple from the US, he will bring them down with him.
It's one mistake and failure after another with the Trump administration.

 
The transfer of wealth is pretty much the greatest in the history of the US which is unfortunately not going to change anytime soon.

This in itself is a major economic structure problem that's not being addressed or even talked about.


 
moXJO said:
Once these things start rolling out its the initial cost of the robot and possibly some form of subscription. Either way costs are going to reduce drastically for manufacturing. You could get an army of these things working 24/7
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A huge issue is energy.

How long it takes to build robots well I'm not the right person to ask.

But if you want a gas turbine, current industry advice is to plan 6 to 8 years ahead as that's now the duration of the waiting list depending on model. Some models can be delivered sooner than others, but nothing's "off the shelf" at this point, it's all a multi-year delay.

Large transformers it's presently about 2.5 years' backlog on order, not including shipping or installation that's just for the manufacturing.

As a very simple explanation of the significance of that, gas turbines are what turns gas (or diesel) into electricity on a large scale and are the conventional technology for doing so, with or without being coupled to a steam turbine to improve fuel efficiency. Gas is presently a key growth source of electricity in the US and the one being counted on to enable re-industrialisation, hence the rush of turbine orders.

A transformer is what you need to connect a generation source (power station, wind farm, etc) or a large load (eg a factory or data centre) to the grid. So not being able to get one of those derails pretty much any large scale manufacturing.

A year ago most of this stuff was able to be ordered for an immediate start on manufacturing. That is, the lead time would be the time it took to sort out the paperwork then actually build it but there was no backlog, there was no queue to join. That's changed globally due to a surge in orders, primarily from the US.

The problem with building this stuff is best explained by pointing out that gas turbines and transformers are themselves manufactured products, and in the case of the former highly specialised ones at that, and are thus subject to the same running down of manufacturing capability that affects everything else. Lack of plant and equipment to manufacture with right across the supply chain, lack of skilled workers, etc.

We do still have a significant transformer manufacturer in Australia by the way, Wilson, but their production capacity would be inconsequential in terms of the global market.
 
If we can not build our cars in Australia, we will not build robots so our energy collapse will not be relevant here.
Everything will be imported robots,software and support inc skilled repairmen
Not sure we will have enough energy to charge the robots but nothing that a smoking generator at the back can not solve and we will just sell some more land or mines to buy all this
In the US on the other hand, they can do it whole., building, ruining ans maintenance.
Rare earth being the bottleneck.
 
Australia is heading to be more of a backwater. Some of the most head in the sands politicians in history.
 
Well it could be an old model. Stagflation won't happen because the world has changed.
Everything is different now though reminds me of the tech rally.

Too many tech guys jumping on board the Trump train for these types of plans not to have been hashed out.

You have a more optimistic view of this. There is no detailed thought out planning going on.
The tariffs haven't been chosen to suit the USA, they are on everything. Then they are pulled back when they realise they have made a mistake. e.g. they were putting a tariff on gold and copper for a little while there! Till they realised they were being dumb.

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Takes Action to Address the Threat to National Security from Imports of Copper

STRENGTHENING AMERICA’S COPPER INDUSTRY: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed a Proclamation to address the effects of copper imports on America’s
www.whitehouse.gov

Gold futures jump to record high after US tariffs on cast bars

Imposition of 39% import rate described as ‘another blow’ to Switzerland’s world-leading refining industry
www.theguardian.com
.
 
The tariffs haven't been used like they're meant to be used; Trump's used them as a political weapon instead.

He's used them on his own allies, and he has used them on products that the US will never make.
 
TimeISmoney said:
It's one mistake and failure after another with the Trump administration.
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Sheer rhetoric. I have a sense you would not take any notice of an economic success of the Trump admin if you fell over it. They haven't been in a year yet. There are undoubtedly going to be casualties, no macro upheaval could avoid it. Not diminishing the impact on honest and creative business people like the one interviewed. Actually though, he sounds like the type who will adapt, not go under. Take note it's a slice of business life cut by Bloomberg T.V. - you don't think that they (like you) might be selective as to which stories they shine a light on?
e.g wasn't Michael Bloomberg a Democrat presidential candidate? And isn't he a purveyor of mainstream media, the sworn enemies of Donald? Maybe some changes are costing him money, lol.
Footnote: why is everyone a clown except me?
 
Knobby22 said:
Well it could be an old model. Stagflation won't happen because the world has changed.
Everything is different now though reminds me of the tech rally.


.
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Reminds me of the horse and buggy. "Na its all good".

This is a turning point.

Tariff and chips are being used as weapons, thats it.

The tech rally actually did change the world. Communication, selling, entertainment not sure where you are coming from there?
 
Hey Finicky, when you have to fire a senior official because they didn't print lies, it basically says it all. If you know you're going to do better in the future with job numbers, why would it be a problem now?

The rest of the world will get sick of the disarray and just move on without them. Any country can counteract tariffs without using using reciprocal tariffs; that's what Trump and his followers don't understand. For any country to react oppressively at this stage of the economic cycle would be playing a fool's game. They want to pay a million dollars for a toothbrush; let them.

Countries advance from education and scientific developments. Donald duck has cut funding to all those sectors and wants everyone to take on jobs in the labouring industry from third world countries.
 
The world is always changing but economics stays the same.
Smart robots aren't suddenly going to take over all human activity.
They have been around for years and companies, especially in Asia and Europe who now have many automated systems but AI isn't suddenly going to make manufacturing simple. It takes a lot of knowledge and capital.

I will eat my words if the USA doesn't go into a recessionary cycle with high inflation next year. It has to because the prices of most goods are going to rise due to the higher taxes resulting in insipid or negative growth.

Trump will counteract this with lower interest rates when he takes over the Fed in February but that will only add to the inflation problem.
While this change is supposed to happen other countries will deliberately avoid buying US goods e.g. bourbon etc. further hurting the economy.

It's practically the definition of stagflation.
Now if he planned this carefully it might be a different story, but he obviously hasn't.
 
Recession wouldn't surprise me.
But most western nations are in the same boat and its not a lot to do with Tariffs. Its been that way for some time.

Australia was in one except for fudging of numbers
 
moXJO said:
Recession wouldn't surprise me.
But most western nations are in the same boat and its not a lot to do with Tariffs. Its been that way for some time.

Australia was in one except for fudging of numbers
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Yea, but this will be self inflicted.
 
My big problem with Trump threads is its full of Trump haters. Generally only see one side of it and fail to take advantage. All my stocks are at highs. Probably banked more in the last 6 months than previous years.

I get its fun raging on Trump but is everyone backing it with trades?

Trump is just another in a long list of clowns on the world stage. But he's the clown that makes trading volatility dreams come true.
 
moXJO said:
Long term is what im interested in. He's got some intelligent backers. Its a cold war against China right now.
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So the question is should we be buying materials? And what should we be avoiding? What will this do to Australia? What should win in the USA?
 
My strategy is to take the money while you can and not be greedy. Lots of volatility is good until it isn't. If things go south really bad, you could have lots of money stuck in a stock. People forget that it just happens overnight with little to no warning.
 
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