Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[DannyB0000]

The first people I would look at is the Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell and their cabal of insider traders in the Congress/Senate.

I doubt highly doubt whether Nancy Pelosi would be part of Trump’s inner circle, maybe she is taking advantage of market volatility though. Pelosi is a Democrat.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I was just sitting having a cup of coffee and thinking about Trump. The only motivation he has in life is making money and by extension increasing the dollar value of American Assets. Not for the American people directly but by happenstance as a side effect of his own increase in worth.

Human rights, people, friends, enemies, ethics, war and peace all take a place behind money. The subordination of everything to his wealth acquisition will decide all our futures, over the next four years and possibly beyond. Any unraveling of his decisions depends on the flavour of government that follows him and the ease or otherwise of change.

So investors in the US and Australian markets will benefit as long as the health of those markets suits his purpose. Just as with interest rates, should the markets fall out of his favour he will pursue them as he has with Powell, the Fed chair. Depending on your assessment of Trump's effect on stock markets, your wealth as an investor in stocks will fall or rise when reality comes along for the ride.

Interesting times.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

I was just sitting having a cup of coffee and thinking about Trump. The only motivation he has in life is making money and by extension increasing the dollar value of American Assets. Not for the American people directly but by happenstance as a side effect of his own increase in worth.

Human rights, people, friends, enemies, ethics, war and peace all take a place behind money. The subordination of everything to his wealth acquisition will decide all our futures, over the next four years and possibly beyond. Any unraveling of his decisions depends on the flavour of government that follows him and the ease or otherwise of change.

So investors in the US and Australian markets will benefit as long as the health of those markets suits his purpose. Just as with interest rates, should the markets fall out of his favour he will pursue them as he has with Powell, the Fed chair. Depending on your assessment of Trump's effect on stock markets, your wealth as an investor in stocks will fall or rise when reality comes along for the ride.

Interesting times.

gg

Do you truly believe that?
The big bad wolf?
Do you genuinely believe Trump is richer via presidency than he would have been staying out of the spotlight?
I let the answers with you.
Get another cuppa or a better drink by the fireplace tonight
Trump wants to bring back the US to his heyday of successful capitalism ruling the world IMHO.
Is it even possible? Not sure.
But do not believe all the media BS.
Trump is an inconvenient truth to 99% of the world power players inc media bosses

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Do you truly believe that?
The big bad wolf?
Do you genuinely believe Trump is richer via presidency than he would have been staying out of the spotlight?
I let the answers with you.
Get another cuppa or a better drink by the fireplace tonight
Trump wants to bring back the US to his heyday of successful capitalism ruling the world IMHO.
Is it even possible? Not sure.
But do not believe all the media BS.
Trump is an inconvenient truth to 99% of the world power players inc media bosses

Nah @qldfrog . I don't judge Trump, he is what he is. I was just sharing my rumination. I have a few good friends who are like the Donald. It is just the way they are made, whether inborn from genetics or the way they form from childhood. Just like people who get involved in charities, for whatever reason.

I understand Trump's motivation, I think. It is very similar to what you describe. He is in it for himself, and the nation (US) and the world may be a better place for his interventions or may not, but it is always subordinate to his own interests. You just want to watch that you do not believe all the media bull**** and just listen to your Uncle Garpal. Trump is an anconvenient truth to 99%of the world players inc media bosses. You heard it from your uncle first. Time for another coffee Comrade. From one anarchist to another.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

Nah @qldfrog . I don't judge Trump, he is what he is. I was just sharing my rumination. I have a few good friends who are like the Donald. It is just the way they are made, whether inborn from genetics or the way they form from childhood. Just like people who get involved in charities, for whatever reason.

I understand Trump's motivation, I think. It is very similar to what you describe. He is in it for himself, and the nation (US) and the world may be a better place for his interventions or may not, but it is always subordinate to his own interests. You just want to watch that you do not believe all the media bull**** and just listen to your Uncle Garpal. Trump is an anconvenient truth to 99%of the world players inc media bosses. You heard it from your uncle first. Time for another coffee Comrade. From one anarchist to another.

gg

I would just rephrase" for the US and his own interests" as he sees them
Time will tell

 

[TimeISmoney]

Do you truly believe that?
The big bad wolf?
Do you genuinely believe Trump is richer via presidency than he would have been staying out of the spotlight?
I let the answers with you.
Get another cuppa or a better drink by the fireplace tonight
Trump wants to bring back the US to his heyday of successful capitalism ruling the world IMHO.
Is it even possible? Not sure.
But do not believe all the media BS.
Trump is an inconvenient truth to 99% of the world power players inc media bosses

You sound a bit like Trump; everything is fake news that doesn't suit his narrative.

Inherits a fortune, bankrupts himself, then snuggles up to shady characters like Epstein and refuses to release his full tax returns.

Alcopone would make a better president than this bloke.

90% of what comes out of his mouth is BS, on federation day, he made a comment that China doesn't use any of the windmills it makes, before then it was arguing with a reporter about the fake picture of a gang member tattoo.

You honestly think if he were a prominent businessman he would waste his time entering politics?

 

[rederob]

Do you truly believe that?
The big bad wolf?
Do you genuinely believe Trump is richer via presidency than he would have been staying out of the spotlight?
I let the answers with you.
Get another cuppa or a better drink by the fireplace tonight
Trump wants to bring back the US to his heyday of successful capitalism ruling the world IMHO.
Is it even possible? Not sure.
But do not believe all the media BS.
Trump is an inconvenient truth to 99% of the world power players inc media bosses

Trump's supporters appear to be devoid of actual facts.
This link touches on just one aspect of his corruption.
The most recent high profile example was a Boeing 747-8 that would eventually be donated to Trump’s presidential library (it won't be sitting on a shelf, will it?) after he leaves office.
The other week he invited those on his mail list to nominate themselves as advisers to decision makers, for a fee of course, with monies received going into his coffers.

Trump is an international laughing stock who cannot be trusted, proving that to be the case with his supposed negotiations with Iran on nuclear disarmament sheduled for a few days after his bombing raid, and now his tariff war with the rest of the world (except perhaps Russia).

As for your idea about believing media BS, you might want to read the opinions of dozens of world leading economics (getting no media attention) who cannot believe his incompetence. Trump's plan for America appears to be one which he makes up afresh every day, subject to change.

 

[over9k]

If the orange man was just self interested/status quo candidate then they wouldn't have tried so hard to stop him becoming president in the first place.

 

[TimeISmoney]

The highest mid year corporate bankruptcies for the month since 2010, what happened to make America great again?




China is diverting trade to Asian nations due to US tariffs.



Trump put Tariffs on Japan even though they employ more than 55000 people at auto plants across the US (indirectly 410000 people) .

If they wanted to screw the US they could shut the plants down in the US overnight and pull their money from the bond market, plus the loss of corporate income tax. I don't think Trump holds the cards like he thinks he does.

Together, Honda and Toyota have 18 US auto plants and employ more than 55,000 workers across 13 states. Honda has 8 plants and employs about 21,000 workers, and Toyota has 10 plants that employ roughly 30,000 workers. Toyota also has a new plant set to open this year in Randolph County, North Carolina, which will employ roughly 5,100 workers. For this exercise, Toyota corporate headquarters in Plano, Texas, and plants that manufacture other products, like aircraft engines, are not included.


Car Manufacturing Plant Shutdowns Could Cost Half a Million US Jobs

 

[Smurf1976]

Trump wants to bring back the US to his heyday of successful capitalism ruling the world IMHO.
Is it even possible? Not sure.

The way I see it, the US has been living beyond its means for half a century and even worse, has run down the means of production to a point of losing technological leadership and even basic know how.

I don't think it's impossible to come back from this, but it'll take a monumental effort and I don't see anything to suggest it's going to happen. Far more likely in my view is inflation lies ahead, big time.

 

[over9k]

inflation lies ahead, big time

This. Even just balancing the budget is going to take some monumental political upheaval.

I'd just like to add that national debt etc is not unique to the USA, it's happened basically everywhere for decades now.

As I've said before, we've spent so long in an almost-zero interest rate environment that we considered it to be normal and it isn't.

 

[TimeISmoney]

The way I see it, the US has been living beyond its means for half a century and even worse, has run down the means of production to a point of losing technological leadership and even basic know how.

I don't think it's impossible to come back from this, but it'll take a monumental effort and I don't see anything to suggest it's going to happen. Far more likely in my view is inflation lies ahead, big time.

I can't see them doing large scale manufacturing without devaluing the USD, and if that happens, it's going to put their economy in a very dangerous position. If it were this easy to just start manufacturing, it would have been reignited years ago by other presidents.

 

[Smurf1976]

If it were this easy to just start manufacturing, it would have been reignited years ago by other presidents.

Agree with the rest but I'm not convinced about this bit.

My observation is Western politics has been "captured" by a fairly narrow group in terms of academic and career background. A group that centres very heavily around law, literature, media and so on. That if we got every member of any Western parliament together, we'd be surrounded by people whose strength is in wordy fields not technical or practical ones.

Where that goes is to say a big part of the problem with manufacturing is those in positions of power just don't value it. They don't understand it and they can't comprehend that anyone would actually want to work in a factory. Nor do they comprehend why society needs manufacturing and the technical skills it supports.

As with anything, if whoever's in charge doesn't understand or see value in it then it tends to be let go.

 

[over9k]

That if we got every member of any Western parliament together, we'd be surrounded by people whose strength is in wordy fields not technical or practical ones.

That's because most politicians are lawyers and law is usually combined with some other filler/interest discipline like philosophy or something when it's being studied. Here in aus it'll be a double arts-law degree or similiar, in the U.S it's an undergrad degree in something and then postgrad in law because that's how their system works.

Considering how wordy law is as a discipline it stands to reason that to give yourself an advantage in law school you'd study something else pretty wordy like english or whatever beforehand/simultaneously.

So, point is that if you want to be a politician (lawyer) then an engineering degree is of basically no use to accomplish it and thus nobody in parliament has an engineering degree.

The closest you'll come to finding any kind of technical expertise in parliament is some kind of background in economics and that'll obviously mean that you'll only find one party with those skills in it which means you only have people who actually understand economics in charge 50% of the time.

And I'm not sure if you've noticed but the competent side of politics is also evil so, yeah, we've got a problem.

 

[over9k]

Anyways, the point was that the people capable of fixing the problem are unwilling to do it so unless that changes we're basically going to just have a parade of morons for the foreseeable future and need to invest/prepare accordingly.

There is a reason why gold has been running as hard as it has

 

[rederob]

Agree with the rest but I'm not convinced about this bit.

My observation is Western politics has been "captured" by a fairly narrow group in terms of academic and career background. A group that centres very heavily around law, literature, media and so on. That if we got every member of any Western parliament together, we'd be surrounded by people whose strength is in wordy fields not technical or practical ones.

Where that goes is to say a big part of the problem with manufacturing is those in positions of power just don't value it. They don't understand it and they can't comprehend that anyone would actually want to work in a factory. Nor do they comprehend why society needs manufacturing and the technical skills it supports.

As with anything, if whoever's in charge doesn't understand or see value in it then it tends to be let go.

I disagree.

Western politics is based on the principles of capitalism. The fact that legislators (called law makers in America) are seldom technically oriented simply means that where a Party's ideology does not align with sound science or engineering principles (and occasionally basic economics), the Party in power will inevitably make and commit monies to poor decisions. The other side of the political equation relates to pandering to big money and special interests groups (like the gun lobby in America) and again has nothing to do with the types of qualifications held by legislators.

On capitalism, Australia once had a vibrant electronics products industry but lost it to Japan principally some 4-5 decades ago because our prices were uncompetitive. Breville, with a 70 year history in Australia, pretty much stopped making its products in Australia 2 decades ago as it offshored manufacture to China. Australia's government spent countless millions propping up car manufacture in Australia despite the writing being on the wall at least 10 years earlier. So I cannot see how your point that "they can't comprehend that anyone would actually want to work in a factory" is valid, given market forces prevailed, and still do.

Simply put, capitalism thrives on profits and these are greatest where comparative manufacturing costs are lowest. A quick example: VW makes most profits from its cars made in China - clearly because it's European-based car making costs are higher. However, due to comparatively high production costs in China, many VW group car parts are made in Vietnam and shipped back to China for final assembly. And a more recent American example is John Deer's decision to build a huge manufacturing plant in Mexico.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Agree with the rest but I'm not convinced about this bit.

My observation is Western politics has been "captured" by a fairly narrow group in terms of academic and career background. A group that centres very heavily around law, literature, media and so on. That if we got every member of any Western parliament together, we'd be surrounded by people whose strength is in wordy fields not technical or practical ones.

Where that goes is to say a big part of the problem with manufacturing is those in positions of power just don't value it. They don't understand it and they can't comprehend that anyone would actually want to work in a factory. Nor do they comprehend why society needs manufacturing and the technical skills it supports.

As with anything, if whoever's in charge doesn't understand or see value in it then it tends to be let go.

They've got more advisers than you'd be able to poke a stick at.

Not many people will deliberately take a job that underpays and is quite physical over an office job. People might say they'll do it but when they're in that position, it's a different story. People are getting more informed with digital media. I've got a friend whose father has both knees worn out from climbing conveyor stairs for years, never had enough money for private insurance and is now on a waiting list for years while his life depletes even faster from inactivity.

I think another issue now will be that most of these jobs will be lost to automation. It's never going to be as simple as starting up manufacturing; there's also economics involved. Why would I replace the engine in my car with locally made parts when a new car from Japan is cheaper and it's more refined as a product?

I see your point, but are they going to subsidise these manufacturing plants to make them economically sustainable? At some point, you start to go backwards because there are huge costs involved, it's not like yesteryear, where laws around environmental standards and workplace safety were overlooked. My parents owned a farm back in the day and sprayed Roundup everywhere. It cut back the laborious job of weeding phenomenally, but to the detriment of themselves and whoever ate the crops.

 

[rederob]

I think another issue now will be that most of these jobs will be lost to automation. It's never going to be as simple as starting up manufacturing; there's also economics involved.

China already has dark factories where robots are making robots.
You can skip to the 55 second mark for details:

 

[moXJO]

We are probably 15-30years off fusion.
Robots and AI probably the biggest war between countries positioning to get first mover advantage.

The way manufacturing is done will change dramatically. Everyone here still thinking in the past.

 

[Antirnator]

The highest mid year corporate bankruptcies for the month since 2010, what happened to make America great again?


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All those businesses living off NGOs and Taxpayer money, that produce nothing, dying is a good thing. Drain the swamp.