Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[qldfrog]

We are in a recession covered up by mass temporary immigration (not taking a political position of for or against).

where is it written temporary?
noway will anyone welcomed to any welfare western nation will ever go back to their original shithole when you are better on on welfare jobless here than working hard if you have a job there

 

[Antirnator]

where is it written temporary?
noway will anyone welcomed to any welfare western nation will ever go back to their original shithole when you are better on on welfare jobless here than working hard if you have a job there

I understand what you are saying but I was just trying to convey the economic situation.

The rich rule Australia
Don't worry Zali Steggall and her TEAL moral high ground is absolutely for migrant peasant labour to serve her coffee, work in our rundown factories and on building sites. She is desperate for those people on temporary work/student visas to stay permanently. As long as the Australian media hides their self-serving agenda for a cheap underclass that is what Australia will get to make Malcolm, Simon and company richer.

It's seems like the cost of living crisis is not yet bad enough for the majority to wake up...
People are too nice.

 

[mullokintyre]

Just getting back on topic a little, just saw this on X.
The decline started from the beginning of 2024, so we cannot blame it all on Trump.
Indeed, given that so much of construction at the worker level is done by immigrants, both ldocumented and undocumented,
and a chunk have left either voluntarrily or otherwise, one might think that there should be a ton of replacement job offerings.
Not so.
Given some of the problems with CRE, its not surporing that construction openings are down.
There are also issues in private home construction.
According to Trading economics
Building permits have been in decline

US housing starts have been in decline since early 2023

And despite this, the number of home completions has been on the rise.
So if permits are down, starts are down, at some peont in the completed houses will plummet.
Notice the cyclical nature of completions, and how the decline in completions comes before a recession.

 

[mullokintyre]

Is there going to be more QT?
If the US goes into recession, the usual playbook is QE.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

GM is laying off 900 workers as it shuts a shift down at one of its plants.
It won't add to the US unemployment data however, this plant is in Ontario , Canada.
From News.ca

It may be a result of the MAGA made in USA mantra, because production is shifting to Indiana.
FromCDC News
.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

And despite this, the number of home completions has been on the rise.

now the commentators that i used to access seem to be hard to find now ( so some of my info is dated )



BUT the Covid saga created all sorts of supply-chain and worker disruptions , and since then you has credit uncertainty and trade/tariff uncertainty , IF completions are up given the other indicators , that might suggest construction projects are now overcoming previous bottle-necks .

short-term this is a good thing less capital tied up in unfinished constructions

but medium term .. if skilled labor is still restrained costs ( via 'tariff contagion ' ) will probably edge higher , taxes by inefficient governments will rise .... so what about credit ( some still say debt-loads are still crazy-high )

ALSO i note a trend ( even in Australia ) of 'build-to-rent' and not just retirement villages signalling corporations are moving into the landlord business

 

[divs4ever]

Is there going to be more QT?
If the US goes into recession, the usual playbook is QE.
Mick

View attachment 210152

which assets is The Fed selling down/unwinding ?

during the virus saga The Fed was buying lots of US Treasuries ( from distressed banks ) and lots of mortgage debt ( and associated securities ) there is some chance The Fed offloaded some mortgage related securities at a loss

the Fed MIGHT be back to pre-Covid levels but certainly not pre-Repo-Madness levels ( pre-September 2019 )

 

[divs4ever]

GM is laying off 900 workers as it shuts a shift down at one of its plants.
It won't add to the US unemployment data however, this plant is in Ontario , Canada.
From News.ca
View attachment 210156
It may be a result of the MAGA made in USA mantra, because production is shifting to Indiana.
FromCDC News
View attachment 210157.
Mick

being an APE shareholder ( and they just bought a controlling stake in CanadaOne ) this now add more clarity to the move ( deal ) i note CanadaOne was heavily exposed to GM dealerships , while APE has some nice exposure to Chinese brands ( electric , hybrid and conventional ) and well as other Asian brands

will this merger have wider implications for Canada ( and US )

 

[Antirnator]

Why do people expect competence from the Fed, it can't even fire a mortgage fraudster from its own board? Imagine all the people working there who are not any better.

 

[divs4ever]

Why do people expect competence from the Fed, it can't even fire a mortgage fraudster from its own board? Imagine all the people working there who are not any better.

since The Fed is owned by a select consortium of large banks ( who select most of the governor positions ) the major exception is the Chair ( who is selected by the US President , after being endorsed by the US congress )

i expect them to be very competent , honest ? maybe , maybe not ( just like any other bank employee )

i sat for several weeks in ICU across from a major ( Australian ) bank investigator , and several years later worked for a former bank ( forensic ) auditor ( for a different major banking group )

 

[Antirnator]

AUDIT THE FED

 

[mullokintyre]

AUDIT THE FED

I got ChatGPT to massage my resume, and have sent it off to the Trump team.
they need some outside expertise with no baggage.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

I got ChatGPT to massage my resume, and have sent it off to the Trump team.
they need some outside expertise with no baggage.
Mick

i can be your assistant and second you, objective, no agenda but truth

 

[ShareSuccess]

i can be your assistant and second you, objective, no agenda but truth

I could be part of the Legal Team.

Experience: School of Hard Knocks, Been in More Lock ups Than Ned Kelly

 

[divs4ever]

AUDIT THE FED

i nominate Ron Paul ( father of Rand Paul )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

​

Japanification—Coming to America by 2031?​ By Ed D'Agostino | October 3, 2025 The newest member of the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, recently outlined his reasons for wanting interest rates to come down by roughly 2 percentage points—far more than any other Fed member. Underpinning his argument is a concern about the consequences of shifting immigration policies—or what he calls ‘population shocks.’ We already know that demographic projections in the US are bleak. Our population is aging while the birth rate is declining. That’s true for much of the Western world—and most strikingly for Japan, where people 65-plus are projected to top 30% of the population by 2030. Together, fewer productive young people and more non-working older people make it difficult for an economy to grow. This has implications for housing, Social Security, Medicare, our healthcare system, tax revenue, and beyond. Let’s look at what Miran said in his speech at The Economic Club of New York. Stagnant Population = Stagnant Economy​ Miran noted that US population growth is declining quickly due to changes in immigration policy. He described President Biden’s immigration policy as resulting in the biggest positive population growth shock of his lifetime. He said the US population had been growing at approximately 1% annually in recent years, with much of that growth attributed to illegal immigration. Data from Pew Research seems to confirm. Source: Pew Research​ Miran went on to say that President Trump’s policies are now reversing the trend, resulting in one of the biggest negative growth shocks. Here’s Miran: Already in the first half of this year, roughly 1.5 million of these immigrants have left the country, according to the Current Population Survey, though this number may be an overestimate due to nonresponse issues. Assuming some overcounting, it is plausible to me that 2 million illegal immigrants will have exited the country by year-end, thereby reducing annual population growth from 1 percent to 0.4 percent. This is a big deal, for reasons we’ll get to shortly. Now let’s look at the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent projections, published in September. Here’s their chart: Source: CBO.gov​ Note that the historic data ends in 2022. The projected spike in 2023 shows population growth of 1.1%, net immigration of 1.0%, and births minus deaths of 0.2%. For 2025, the CBO projected population growth of 0.2%, net immigration of 0.1%, and births minus deaths of 0.1%. Even these low estimates may overstate population and immigration growth this year. I am not going to weigh in on whether the current immigration policies are right or wrong. I’m simply asking us all to consider, “How will a further reduction in population growth impact the US economy?” I’d argue that projected negative trends will arrive sooner than we’d anticipated. Back in January the CBO noted that “without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself.” Without immigration, the CBO now expects the US population to start shrinking in 2031. Part of this comes down to immigrants having more children than US-born Americans. Not a lot more, according to this 2023 data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey—but enough that immigrants land above the replacement rate, while US-born Americans fall below it. Source: cis.org​ With zero net immigration happening sooner than previously projected, all the other negative demographic projections can likely be pulled forward, too. That includes a larger proportion of Americans 65-plus—a group that was already projected to top 20% of the US population by 2030. This is an expensive group. As of August, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projected Social Security insolvency by late 2032—just seven years from now. It’s also projected Medicare Part A (hospital care) will become insolvent just one year later. Source: crfb.org​ Net zero immigration will also impact the cost and availability of home healthcare workers, who are critical for an aging population. Nearly 40% of these workers are immigrants, and a shrinking pool would further exacerbate the strains on our healthcare system. It’s difficult to find non-immigrants who are willing to do this unglamorous work for $14.50 per hour. With net zero immigration arriving sooner, we will feel the impacts on healthcare as well as our Social Security system earlier. Consumer consumption should also drop. And worker productivity is a wildcard, given AI. Viewed in this light, Miran’s case for lower rates becomes understandable, if not more compelling. The long-term outlook for the economy also becomes more concerning, as a stagnant economy can get trapped with low rates that don’t effectively stimulate growth. Just look at Japan over the past two decades. The economic Japanification of the US may be happening more quickly than we’d previously projected​

 

[mullokintyre]

​ View attachment 210253​

​ Japanification—Coming to America by 2031?​ By Ed D'Agostino | October 3, 2025 The newest member of the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, recently outlined his reasons for wanting interest rates to come down by roughly 2 percentage points—far more than any other Fed member. Underpinning his argument is a concern about the consequences of shifting immigration policies—or what he calls ‘population shocks.’ We already know that demographic projections in the US are bleak. Our population is aging while the birth rate is declining. That’s true for much of the Western world—and most strikingly for Japan, where people 65-plus are projected to top 30% of the population by 2030. Together, fewer productive young people and more non-working older people make it difficult for an economy to grow. This has implications for housing, Social Security, Medicare, our healthcare system, tax revenue, and beyond. Let’s look at what Miran said in his speech at The Economic Club of New York.​ Stagnant Population = Stagnant Economy​ Miran noted that US population growth is declining quickly due to changes in immigration policy. He described President Biden’s immigration policy as resulting in the biggest positive population growth shock of his lifetime. He said the US population had been growing at approximately 1% annually in recent years, with much of that growth attributed to illegal immigration. Data from Pew Research seems to confirm.​ View attachment 210254 Source: Pew Research​ Miran went on to say that President Trump’s policies are now reversing the trend, resulting in one of the biggest negative growth shocks. Here’s Miran: Already in the first half of this year, roughly 1.5 million of these immigrants have left the country, according to the Current Population Survey, though this number may be an overestimate due to nonresponse issues. Assuming some overcounting, it is plausible to me that 2 million illegal immigrants will have exited the country by year-end, thereby reducing annual population growth from 1 percent to 0.4 percent. This is a big deal, for reasons we’ll get to shortly. Now let’s look at the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent projections, published in September. Here’s their chart:​ View attachment 210255 Source: CBO.gov​ Note that the historic data ends in 2022. The projected spike in 2023 shows population growth of 1.1%, net immigration of 1.0%, and births minus deaths of 0.2%. For 2025, the CBO projected population growth of 0.2%, net immigration of 0.1%, and births minus deaths of 0.1%. Even these low estimates may overstate population and immigration growth this year. I am not going to weigh in on whether the current immigration policies are right or wrong. I’m simply asking us all to consider, “How will a further reduction in population growth impact the US economy?” I’d argue that projected negative trends will arrive sooner than we’d anticipated. Back in January the CBO noted that “without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself.” Without immigration, the CBO now expects the US population to start shrinking in 2031. Part of this comes down to immigrants having more children than US-born Americans. Not a lot more, according to this 2023 data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey—but enough that immigrants land above the replacement rate, while US-born Americans fall below it.​ View attachment 210256 Source: cis.org​ With zero net immigration happening sooner than previously projected, all the other negative demographic projections can likely be pulled forward, too. That includes a larger proportion of Americans 65-plus—a group that was already projected to top 20% of the US population by 2030. This is an expensive group. As of August, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projected Social Security insolvency by late 2032—just seven years from now. It’s also projected Medicare Part A (hospital care) will become insolvent just one year later.​ View attachment 210257 Source: crfb.org​ Net zero immigration will also impact the cost and availability of home healthcare workers, who are critical for an aging population. Nearly 40% of these workers are immigrants, and a shrinking pool would further exacerbate the strains on our healthcare system. It’s difficult to find non-immigrants who are willing to do this unglamorous work for $14.50 per hour. With net zero immigration arriving sooner, we will feel the impacts on healthcare as well as our Social Security system earlier. Consumer consumption should also drop. And worker productivity is a wildcard, given AI. Viewed in this light, Miran’s case for lower rates becomes understandable, if not more compelling. The long-term outlook for the economy also becomes more concerning, as a stagnant economy can get trapped with low rates that don’t effectively stimulate growth. Just look at Japan over the past two decades. The economic Japanification of the US may be happening more quickly than we’d previously projected​

he seems a tad smarter than that other nominee, Lisa Cook, whose economic credentials seem to have been taken from a weeties packet.
mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Interesting opinion.
provides no evidence of course.
Mick

 

[Antirnator]

Interesting opinion.
provides no evidence of course.
Mick
View attachment 210271

We can all learn from Miami Vice...

I am not sure what that is

 

[mullokintyre]

Sometimes a chart can look both good and bad at the same time.
The original poster showed how home owners equity has risen substantially, which in isolation is good.
However, as the poster who commented on the original posters thoughts points out, the equity increase is fine, but the the source of the problem.